December 31, 2014

The Big Ten certainly appears to be in full shuffle mode as I picked 3 of yesterday's 4 Big Ten games incorrectly. I certainly never would have guessed going into 2015 that Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State would be out of the bracket, with Maryland and Penn State rounding out the top three from our fine conference after Wisconsin.

The Gophers tip off against Purdue in just a few short hours, and sadly I'm stuck at work. With NYE festivities this evening I likely won't get a chance to watch the game until tomorrow, but will try to provide a bracket update while watching Gopher football take on Mizzou in the Citrus Bowl. Have a safe and happy New Years!

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Gonzaga, Villanova, Old Dominion, Arizona
3's: Kansas, West Virginia, Utah, Wichita State
4's: VCU, Saint John's, Northern Iowa, Colorado State
5's: Maryland, Iowa State, Washington, Dayton
6's: LSU, Texas, San Diego State, Baylor
7's: Louisville, Seton Hall, George Washington, Georgia
8's: North Carolina, Arkansas, Providence, Penn State
9's: Butler, Stanford, UNLV, Cincinnati
10's: Georgetown, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Xavier
11's: Notre Dame, TCU, Green Bay, Georgia Tech
12's: Minnesota, BYU, Iowa, Miami (FL), Temple, Buffalo
13's: Wofford, Harvard, Incarnate Word, Georgia State
14's: Eastern Washington, Stony Brook, Lafayette, Gardner-Webb
15's: Long Beach State, Northeastern, North Carolina Central, Saint Francis (PA)
16's: Murray State, Iona, Texas Southern, South Dakota State, Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State

FFO: Davidson, UTEP, Alabama, SMU
NFO: North Carolina State, Loyola-Chicago, Boise State, Illinois

December 30, 2014

Big Ten conference play is finally here! There are a couple monster matchups this afternoon: Maryland @ Michigan State and Iowa @ Ohio State. I expect both home teams to win, however both games will have moderate bracketology impacts. The Gophers start their Big Ten schedule tomorrow at Purdue. Despite the Boilermakers shaky performance lately (three straight losses), I expect a tough test from them. The Gophers will very likely need to reach their season average of 83 points in order to secure a victory. Purdue is averaging 76 points per game, and Minnesota has allowed that many in two straight games against mid-major opponents. Here are the Gophers keys to victory:
Interior Defense - Purdue is not an outside shooting team, averaging just 34% from beyond the arc this season. Walker and Eliason will need to avoid foul trouble in the first half.
Ball control - this is an area Minnesota typically dominates, ranking 5th in the nation in Steal/TO ratio at 0.91. Conversely, Purdue is 205th at 0.46. If the Gophers can maintain a positive TO margin, the game should be quite managable.
Defensive Rebounding - Purdue is currently 2nd in the Big Ten in Offensive boards, while Minnesota is 2nd to last in Defensive rebounds. Purdue misses an average of 31 shots per game, I'm going to say the Gophers need to get at least 23 of those rebounds to be successful tomorrow night.

One note about my newest bracket - as we get closer to the end of the season, I'm going to try to tweak my regression rankings less and less. Up to now, I've been moving teams as much as 4-5 seed lines based on quailty wins, bad losses, and other factors. Starting today, I'll move a team no more than ten slots (2.5 seed lines) away from their regression rank. This adjustment limit will likely shrink some, reaching 5 or 6 by the end of the season.

Finally, regarding projected automatic bids, I will continue to use best RPI for a few more weeks, until we get several games into the conference schedule. Once we reach mid-February or so, I will actually try to more accurately project auto-bids based on likely conference tournament seed and matchups.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Gonzaga, Villanova, Arizona, Old Dominion
3's: Kansas, West Virginia, Saint John's, Utah
4's: Colorado State, VCU, Wichita State, Northern Iowa
5's: Iowa State, Baylor, George Washington, Washington
6's: LSU, Seton Hall, Maryland, Dayton
7's: Louisville, San Diego State, Georgia, Texas
8's: North Carolina, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence
9's: Penn State, Butler, UNLV, Stanford
10's: Oklahoma State, Buffalo, Ohio State, Green Bay
11's: Davidson, Notre Dame, BYU, Oklahoma
12's: Minnesota, North Carolina State, Xavier, TCU, Cincinnati, Wofford
13's: Temple, Incarnate Word, Georgia State, Harvard
14's: Eastern Washington, High Point, Stony Brook, Lafayette
15's: Saint Francis (PA), Long Beach State, Murray State, Iona
16's: Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, Northeastern, South Dakota State, Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State

FFO: Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), SMU, Illinois
NFO: Boise State, Loyola-Chicago, Alabama, Michigan State

December 29, 2014

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Kansas, Old Dominion
3's: Arizona, Utah, West Virginia, Saint John's
4's: Wichita State, VCU, Northern Iowa, Georgia
5's: San Diego State, Iowa State, Texas, Washington
6's: Seton Hall, Colorado State, Baylor, Maryland
7's: LSU, George Washington, Dayton, Louisville
8's: Arkansas, North Carolina, Georgetown, Oklahoma State
9's: Providence, UNLV, Penn State, Stanford
10's: Butler, Oklahoma, TCU, Buffalo
11's: Green Bay, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Davidson
12's: North Carolina State, Ohio State, Xavier, Cincinnati, Indiana, Temple
13's: Wofford, Incarnate Word, Harvard, Eastern Washington
14's: Georgia State, High Point, Stony Brook, Saint Francis (PA)
15's: Lafayette, Murray State, Long Beach State, Iona
16's: North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, Northeastern, South Dakota State, North Florida, New Mexico State

FFO: BYU, Georgia Tech, SMU, Illinois
NFO: Central Michigan, Loyola-Chicago, Alabama, Boise State

December 28, 2014

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova 
2's: Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Old Dominion, Kansas
3's: Arizona, Wichita State, Utah, Washington
4's: West Virginia, Texas, Northern Iowa, VCU
5's: Saint John's, Iowa State, Colorado State, Maryland
6's: Louisville, LSU, Baylor, San Diego State
7's: Arkansas, Seton Hall, Dayton, North Carolina
8's: Penn State, Harvard, Georgia, Georgetown
9's: George Washington, California, Stanford, Ohio State
10's: Providence, Butler, Indiana, Oklahoma State
11's: UNLV, Minnesota, Buffalo, TCU
12's: BYU, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Green Bay, Cincinnati
13's: Temple, Wofford, Eastern Washington, Incarnate Word
14's: Georgia State, High Point, Long Beach State, Lafayette
15's: Saint Francis (PA), Murray State, Iona, North Carolina Central
16's: Northeastern, Stony Brook, Texas Southern, South Dakota State, North Florida, New Mexico State

FFO: Xavier, Davidson, Notre Dame, UC Davis 
NFO: Loyola-Chicago, Illinois, Boise State, Central Michigan

December 24, 2014

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Wichita State, Old Dominion, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Kansas, Arizona, Washington, West Virginia
4's: Utah, Northern Iowa, VCU, Texas
5's: Colorado State, Louisville, Saint John's, LSU
6's: Georgia, San Diego State, Iowa State, Seton Hall
7's: Maryland, North Carolina, Arkansas, Dayton
8's: Baylor, UNLV, Harvard, BYU
9's: Georgetown, Stanford, Penn State, Georgia Tech
10's: SMU, Butler, Oklahoma, Buffalo
11's: NC State, George Washington, Oklahoma State, Providence
12's: Temple, Green Bay, Indiana, Ohio State, California
13's: Minnesota, Davidson, Wofford, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: Incarnate Word, Long Beach State, High Point, Lafayette
15's: Saint Francis (PA), Iona, Murray State, North Carolina Central
16's: Northeastern, Stony Brook, Texas Southern, South Dakota State, North Florida, New Mexico State

FFO: Rhode Island, Cincinnati, Loyola-Chicago, Syracuse
NFO: UC-Davis, Illinois, Notre Dame, Miami (FL)

December 22, 2014

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Villanova, Louisville, Gonzaga, Wichita State
3's: Arizona, Old Dominion, Wisconsin, Texas
4's: Colorado State, VCU, Northern Iowa, West Virginia
5's: Baylor, Maryland, Washington, Utah
6's: Saint John's, LSU, Iowa State, Green Bay
7's: Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, San Diego State
8's: North Carolina, Miami (FL), Dayton, Penn State
9's: Ohio State, California, Davidson, Harvard
10's: Buffalo, Oklahoma, Georgia, TCU
11's: North Carolina State, BYU, Georgetown, Xavier
12's: Cincinnati, Providence, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Illinois
13's: Minnesota, Butler, Wofford, Georgia State, SMU
14's: Eastern Washington, Incarnate Word, Lafayette, High Point
15's: UNC-Wilmington, Long Beach State, Saint Francis (PA), Belmont
16's: Iona, North Carolina Central, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, South Dakota State, Massachusetts-Lowell

FFO: Notre Dame, South Carolina, Stanford, Richmond
NFO: George Washington, Boise State, Evansville, Marquette

December 19, 2014

I'm working on trying to hone in my method a bit more consistently, so bear with me as there may be some minor fluctuations over the next couple weeks that may not make sense. My goal is to be able to consistently rank teams based on resumes alone, without looking at the name of the school. I hope to have this method locked down by the beginning of conference play.

1's: Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Virginia
2's: Wichita State, Louisville, Wisconsin, Villanova
3's: Old Dominion, Arizona, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
4's: VCU, LSU, Texas, Colorado State
5's: Green Bay, Arkansas, Iowa State, Miami
6's: Baylor, Harvard, Washington, Utah
7's: San Diego State, Northern Iowa, Xavier, Maryland
8's: Dayton, West Virginia, Michigan State, Oklahoma
9's: NC State, Butler, Saint John's, Wofford
10's: Ohio State, Penn State, Cincinnati, North Carolina
11's: Oklahoma State, Buffalo, Boise State, Georgia Tech
12's: Texas A&M, George Washington, Davidson, TCU, Rhode Island
13's: Alabama, California, Incarnate Word, Georgia State, Long Beach State
14's: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Temple, Iona
15's: Lafayette, High Point, North Carolina Central, Mount Saint Mary's
16's: Belmont, Massachusetts-Lowell, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

FFO: Stanford, UTEP, Illinois State, Charlotte
NFO: Illinois, UNLV, Providence, Georgia

December 18, 2014

1's: Kentucky, Kansas, Virginia, Arizona
2's: Duke, Wisconsin, Wichita State, Louisville
3's: Villanova, Old Dominion, Gonzaga, LSU
4's: Texas, Iowa State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
5's: Washington, VCU, San Diego State, Baylor
6's: Utah, Green Bay, Miami, Arkansas
7's: Harvard, Dayton, Northern Iowa, West Virginia
8's: Maryland, Saint John's, Ohio State, North Carolina
9's: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Xavier, Buffalo
10's: Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Butler
11's: NC State, Stanford, George Washington, UTEP
12's: Cincinnati, Wofford, Georgia Tech, Davidson, Illinois
13's: California, Illinois State, Gardner-Webb, Incarnate Word, UNC Wilmington
14's: Georgia State, Long Beach State, Temple, Eastern Washington
15's: Murray State, Lafayette, Iona, North Carolina Central
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, Massachusetts-Lowell, Sacred Heart, North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Alabama State

FFO: Boise State, UNLV, Texas Tech, Georgia State
NFO: Minnesota, Charlotte, Rhode Island, Alabama

December 17, 2014

In order to eliminate any personal bias in tweaking my regression ordering, I simply hid the Excel column with the name of the school. With that said, although last night's games in reality had minimal affect on the bracket order, this new tweaking process did result in a few teams sliding 1-2 lines one way or the other. Also, for the automatic bids, for now I'm simply using the team from each conference with the best RPI. Once conference play has begun, I'll use the conference leader, with ties being broken by best RPI. The last disclaimer I'll give here is that I did this fairly quickly and did not put forth the scrutiny in comparing resumes that later updates will involve.

1's: Kentucky, Kansas, Virginia, Arizona
2's: Duke, Wisconsin, Louisville, Wichita State
3's: Villanova, Gonzaga, Texas, Iowa State
4's: Colorado State, Old Dominion, Seton Hall, Washington
5's: LSU, San Diego State, Baylor, VCU
6's: Harvard, Miami, Northern Iowa, Ohio State
7's: Arkansas, Utah, Green Bay, Dayton
8's: Maryland, Oklahoma, UTEP, West Virginia
9's: Saint John's, Buffalo, George Washington, Michigan State
10's: Xavier, Davidson, TCU, Butler
11's: Penn State, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Boise State
12's: Oklahoma State, Eastern Michigan, Wofford, NC State, California
13's: Illinois, Texas A&M, Gardner-Webb, Incarnate Word, UNC Wilmington
14's: Georgia State, Long Beach State, Temple, Eastern Washington
15's: Murray State, Lafayette, Iona, North Carolina Central
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, Massachusetts-Lowell, Sacred Heart, North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Alabama State

FFO: Stanford, Yale, Rhode Island, Alabama
NFO: Minnesota, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Houston

December 16, 2014

Quick Update

1's: Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, Virginia
2's: Duke, Wisconsin, Louisville, Villanova
3's: Wichita State, Texas, Gonzaga, Seton Hall
4's: Iowa State, Old Dominion, Colorado State, Washington
5's: San Diego State, Baylor, LSU, VCU
6's: Miami, Harvard, West Virginia, Northern Iowa
7's: Saint John's, Ohio State, Maryland, Utah
8's: Arkansas, Green Bay, TCU, Penn State
9's: Dayton, Xavier, Buffalo, Boise State
10's: Alabama, Oklahoma, North Carolina, UTEP
11's: Butler, George Washington, Michigan State, Oklahoma State
12's: Saint Mary's, Eastern Washington, California, Eastern Michigan, Texas A&M,
13's: NC State, Georgia Tech, UNC Wilmington, Georgia State, Temple
14's: Wofford, Long Beach State, Murray State, McNeese State
15's: Lafayette, Iona, High Point, Mount Saint Mary's
16's: NC Central, Florida Gulf Coast, Massachusetts-Lowell, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Texas Southern

FFO: Illinois, Davidson, Stanford, Yale
NFO: Minnesota, Texas Tech, Rhode Island, Charlotte

December 12, 2014

Although I'm getting sucked into the bracketology wormhole a bit earlier this year, I still feel uneasy about posting predictions so early. I think as long as it's kept in mind that these are "if the season ended today" predictions, and not meant to be forward looking. In reality, it will still be another 3-4 weeks before some of the mid-major 'surprise' names in this bracket start to sift themselves out and then we'll see more of the big names we're used to: Creighton, Michigan, Syracuse, UMass, Cincy, UCLA...and hopefully Minnesota.

1's: Kentucky, Arizona, Virginia, Duke
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Gonzaga, Wichita State
3's: Louisville, Miami, Villanova, Iowa State
4's: Texas, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, LSU
5's: Utah, Colorado State, Ohio State, Baylor
6's: Washington, Old Dominion, North Carolina State, Seton Hall
7's: Maryland, UW-Green Bay, Dayton, Harvard
8's: TCU, West Virginia, North Carolina, Davidson
9's: Butler, Boise State, VCU, Saint John's
10's: Illinois, Penn State, Oklahoma, George Washington
11's: Iowa, Buffalo, Arkansas, Michigan State
12's: Florida Gulf Coast, Xavier, Alabama, Eastern Michigan
13's: UTEP, Georgia Tech, Connecticut, Buffalo, Georgia State, Gardner-Webb
14's: Eastern Washington, Incarnate Word, Long Beach State, Northeastern
15's: Iona, Lafayette, North Carolina Central, Massachusetts-Lowell
16's: Wofford, Sacred Heart, Belmont, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Alabama State

FFO: California, Evansville, Texas A&M, Cincinnati
NFO: Charlotte, Texas Tech, Yale, Oklahoma State

December 7, 2014

So as it turns out, my OCD has led me to a new update just a few days after saying it's way too early to begin serious bracketologizing.  Knowing myself, I'll probably come up with a couple updates per week until the new year when I'll get after it daily.

Since it is far too early to stick strictly to the regression-based formula (as shown in my last post), this bracket includes a significant amount of tweaking from the formulaic ordering in order to arrive at what I consider a realistic selection outcome come March.  I may put together another strictly formulaic bracket just for fun.  I have not yet taken into account potential in-conference matchups or geographic issues.

1's: Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Virginia, Louisville, Villanova
3's: Texas, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Iowa State
4's: Miami (FL), Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State
5's: Harvard, Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor
6's: Seton Hall, North Carolina State, UW-Green Bay, West Virginia
7's: Utah, LSU, Dayton, Old Dominion
8's: Butler, Maryland, North Carolina, Illinois
9's: Penn State, Boise State, BYU, Iowa
10's: Yale, TCU, Washington, VCU
11's: Oklahoma, SMU, Davidson, Michigan State
12's: Colorado, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Providence, Saint John's, Massachusetts
13's: Buffalo, Georgia State, Iona, UC-Santa Barbara
14's: Eastern Washington, Massachusetts-Lowell, Holy Cross, Florida Gulf Coast
15's: Belmont, UNC-Wilmington, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
16's: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, Sacred Heart, High Point, New Mexico State, Alabama State

FFO: Nebraska, Xavier, Michigan, Texas A&M
NFO: Wyoming, Minnesota, UConn, Syracuse

Just for Kicks Regression bracket - December 5, 2014

I've been working on dialing in my regression analysis for this season to include the past 1-, 3-, and 5-years' at-large selections. Testing my coefficients on the current season-to-date results produces the bracket below. To be clear, as the season winds down in late February and early March, I will make slight tweaks based on significant anomolies, but for the most part I intend to stick fairly closely to the regression results. To be extra clear, I have made no tweaks to the blatant anomolies in the order below, and they are for illustration of process only and not intended to be any kind of real predictions or projections.

Without further ado, if the season ended today, here would be the bracket:

1's: Miami, Old Dominion, Kentucky, Arizona
2's: Iowa State, Villanova, Texas, Colorado State
3's: Duke, Louisville, Wisconsin, North Carolina State
4's: Northern Iowa, Kansas, San Diego State, Syracuse
5's: LSU, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Arkansas
6's: Purdue, Virginia, Seton Hall, Harvard
7's: Georgia Tech, Davidson, UW-Green Bay, West Virginia
8's: Butler, Michigan, Washington, Rhode Island
9's: VCU, BYU, Colorado, Charlotte
10's: TCU, Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State
11's: Valparaiso, Alabama, Buffalo, Illinois
12's: North Carolina, Wichita State, Providence, Saint Mary's, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
13's: Utah State, UC Davis, Florida Gulf Coast, East Tennessee State
14's: Belmont, Dayton, Cincinnati, Eastern Michigan
15's: Stephen F Austin, Canisius, Army, Vermont
16's: Sacred Heart, High Point, Towson, Alabama State, Norfolk State, IPFW

FFO: Stanford, Holy Cross, Georgia State, Wyoming
NFO: Oklahoma, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Maryland

2014-2015 Stupid-Early Bracketology December 3-4, 2014

Welcome back to college basketball! Although it's still a bit early to get into statistical projections (UW-Green Bay currently #1 RPI...), I've got an itch to post some preliminary bracket predictions. With 102 days until Selection Sunday literally anything can happen. Kentucky could drop 14 games and miss the playoffs. The Wyoming Cowboys could finish the season undefeated and [maybe] snag a #1 seed. That being said, here are my stupid-early, moderately-based-on-statistics, likely-to-drastically-change, 2015 bracket predictions. Please note that this is primarily based on season-to-date state, and really any future looking projections. So this is more of an "if the season ended today" type of a deal. I'll try to get at least one more slightly-less-stupid-early update out before conference play gets underway after the holidays.

1's: Gonzaga, Duke, Arizona, Kentucky
2's: Virginia, Villanova, Louisville, Miami
3's: Wisconsin, Texas, Wichita State, San Diego State
4's: Kansas, Arkansas, Northern Iowa, West Virginia
5's: Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa State, Harvard
6's: Colorado St, Syracuse, NC State, Providence
7's: Green Bay, Oklahoma St, VCU, Cincinnati
8's: UConn, UNC, Iowa, Penn State
9's: Old Dominion, Colorado, Utah, Valparaiso
10's: St. Mary's, Illinois, Washington, Maryland
11's: Seton Hall, BYU, Belmont, Dayton
12's: Wyoming, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Yale, Butler
13's: Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida GC, East Michigan, Towson
14's: SF Austin, Army, E Tennessee St, East Washington
15's: Canisius, UTPA, Vermont, High Point
16's: UC Davis, IPFW, AR-Little Rock, Alabama St, Norfolk St, Sacred Heart

FFO: Purdue, California, Nebraska, Michigan State
NFO: Iona, TCU, George Washington, Minnesota

Actual Selection Results and Bracketology Scoring

Well, the results are in.  After several surprises and snubs, my bracketology score (explained below) was 330.  That's 9 points better than my bracket last year, and hopefully good enough for a ranking in the top half of the 100+ bracketologists in the matrix.

The "Paymon" bracketology score works like this: 6 points for a team on the correct seed line, 4 points for a team within one seed line, and 3 points for a team correctly picked in the field but more than one line away from its actual seed.

I ended up with 35 teams on the correct line (210 pts), 24 teams within one seed line (96 pts), 8 teams picked correctly in the field but more than one line away from their actual seed (24 pts), and one team picked incorrectly - SMU instead of NC State.

It's been interesting watching true NCAA analysts fail miserably at wearing bracketology hats.  Doug Gotlieb said Louisville as a #4 was the biggest surprise he's ever seen, and Ron Wellman (selection committee chair) gave him a good lesson in bracketology.  It's about a team's entire resume from November through March, not just how good they are playing on Selection Sunday.

My top three surprises are...
1. New Mexico on the 7-line.  The committee clearly weighed a lack of top-100 wins very heavily for New Mexico, but not for their fellow Mountain West team San Diego State, who had one fewer top-100 win than the Lobos and lesser or equal metrics in every other resume field except for wins/losses.
2. St. Joseph's on the 10-line.  As I noted earlier this afternoon, I clearly reached a bit too far in putting the Hawks on the 7-line, but their resume certainly deserves better than a 10.  Their top-25, top-50, and top-100 numbers are better than six or seven of the eight teams on the 8 and 9 lines (all but GWU and maybe Kentucky).  Pittsburgh in particular is a huge stretch at the first 9-seed, as their RPI, SOS, top-25 wins, top-50 wins, top-100 wins, and last-10 record are worse than St. Joe's.
3. NC State in the field.  I'm not particularly surprised that SMU didn't get into the field, as Ron Wellman made a good point about their poor SOS.  What surprises me is that NC State was chosen over teams like Minnesota, Florida State, and Missouri.  I believe that's a bit of over-reaction by the committee to their win over Syracuse.

March 16, 2014 - Final Selection Sunday Prediction

As Florida and Michigan State have finalized their respective conference championships, below are my final predictions for the bracket.

1's: Florida, Wichita State, Arizona, Kansas 
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Iowa State, Virginia
3's: Michigan, Duke, Creighton, Syracuse 
4's: Louisville, San Diego State, New Mexico, Michigan State
5's: VCU, Massachusetts, Cincinnati, North Carolina 
6's: UCLA, Kentucky, Saint Louis, Ohio State 
7's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Saint Joseph's 
8's: Baylor, George Washington, Texas, Memphis 
9's: Gonzaga, Colorado, Kansas State, Dayton 
10's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Providence 
11's: Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier, Iowa, SMU 
12's: BYU, Tennessee, North Dakota State, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin 
13's: Manhattan, Delaware, Western Michigan, New Mexico State 
14's: Tulsa, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette 
15's: North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Weber State 
16's: Wofford, Albany, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Cal Poly, Texas Southern 

FFO: Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, California 
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

March 16, 2014 - Update #2

I'm very surprised how many ESPN & CBS pundits have penned Michigan into the #1 line, some saying they'll get it even if they lose to State today. The two reasons I've been hearing this morning for giving Michigan a #1 are their Big Ten regular season win, and 10 top-50 wins (3rd in the nation). I think both of these reasons are misguided. Jamie Zaninovich (selection committee member) said last week that the committee really doesn't consider finishing position in either conference regular season or tournament. They look at who you beat and where you beat them. Beyond that, other accolaides are really just fluff. Regarding Michigan's top-50 wins, I brought it up before, and I'll say it again...four of those wins are against Nebraska and Minnesota - 48th and 50th, respectively. So, the Wolverines have 6 top-47 wins - tied for 10th in the field (Kansas has 12). I believe the committee is too smart to rely so heavily on the arbitrary Fifty number; they'll consider each team's entire body of work. If Michigan wins today, and gets a #1 seed, I won't be surprised...all I'm saying is that it's far from the sure thing that the TV analysts will have you believe.

I currently give the nod to Kansas for the final #1 seed, by a very close margin over Wisconsin and Villanova based on the Jayhawks' incredibly tough schedule, number of quality wins, and lack of bad losses. Really, the #4 through #13 overall seeds are separated by very, very close margins.

Some have Louisville (my #13) as a possible #1 seed, but I'm having trouble placing them above any of my #3 seeds, based on their overall resume, and definitely not above any of the twos.  Syracuse has struggled of late, but still has a boatload of quality wins (6 top-40, 11 top-65).  Same for Creighton, Duke, and Virginia.

It will be interesting to see how high St Joseph's moves after winning the Atlantic 10.  I've got them up to a #7, but it may be a bit reactionary to move them up past George Washington and Baylor, who both may have better overall resumes.

Here's where I have things as of 3pm, with three contingencies below.

1's: Florida, Wichita State, Arizona, Kansas 
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Michigan, Iowa State
3's: Virginia, Duke, Creighton, Syracuse 
4's: Louisville, San Diego State, New Mexico, VCU
5's: Massachusetts, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Michigan State 
6's: UCLA, Kentucky, Saint Louis, Ohio State 
7's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Saint Joseph's 
8's: Baylor, George Washington, Texas, Memphis 
9's: Gonzaga, Colorado, Kansas State, Dayton 
10's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Providence 
11's: Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier, Iowa, SMU 
12's: BYU, Tennessee, North Dakota State, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin 
13's: Manhattan, Delaware, Western Michigan, New Mexico State 
14's: Tulsa, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette 
15's: North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Weber State 
16's: Wofford, Albany, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Cal Poly, Texas Southern 

FFO: Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, California 
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

Contingency #1:
If Michigan State holds on to beat Michigan, the Spartans will move up to the final #4 seed and VCU will fall to the first #5 seed ahead of UMass.  Michigan will fall to the first #3 seed, with Virginia sliding up to the final #2 seed behind Iowa State.

Contingency #2:
If Michigan comes back to beat State, the Wolverines will move up to the first #2 seed, ahead of Wisconsin.  Michigan State will remain in the same position.

Contingency #3:
If Kentucky come back to bead Florida, they will move up to a #5 seed, ahead of UNC.  If Michigan State loses, they would drop to the first #6 seed.  If they win, then UNC will drop to the first #6 seed.

No contingency is needed for a Florida win over Kentucky as it would not change my current seeding.

As soon as the last two games go final, I'll publish my final predictions and email them to Bracket Matrix so they can be recorded and scored.

March 16, 2014 - Morning update

This update based on games played through 3/15/14. I'll post another one shortly based on the results of the ACC and Atlantic 10 championship games.

1's: Florida, Wichita State, Arizona, Kansas
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Michigan, Duke
3's: Iowa State, Creighton, Virginia, Syracuse
4's: Louisville, VCU, San Diego State, New Mexico
5's: Massachusetts, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Michigan State
6's: UCLA, Kentucky, Saint Louis, Ohio State
7's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, George Washington
8's: Baylor, Texas, Memphis, Saint Joseph's
9's: Gonzaga, Colorado, Kansas State, Dayton
10's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Providence
11's: Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier, Iowa, SMU
12's: BYU, Tennessee, North Dakota State, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Manhattan, Delaware, Western Michigan, Georgia State
14's: New Mexico State, Tulsa, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky
15's: North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Weber State
16's: Wofford, Albany, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Cal Poly, Texas Southern

FFO: Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, California
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

March 15, 2014

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Creighton, Duke
3's: Michigan, Iowa State, Syracuse, Virginia
4's: San Diego State, Louisville, Cincinnati, VCU
5's: Massachusetts, Saint Louis, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Ohio State, Connecticut, Michigan State, Oklahoma
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky
8's: Texas, Baylor, Memphis, Colorado
9's: Gonzaga, Saint Joseph's, Kansas State, Dayton
10's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Stanford
11's: Nebraska, Iowa, SMU, Xavier, Providence
12's: BYU, Tennessee, Toledo, North Dakota State, Louisiana Tech
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
14's: New Mexico State, Georgia State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky
15's: North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wofford
16's: Stony Brook, Weber State, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Cal State Northridge, Texas Southern

FFO: Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, California
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

March 14, 2014

Happy Pi Day! Just three days of action left before the selection show. Yesterday was bubble day, with nearly every bubble team in action. Providence and Minnesota played their way in, while Arkansas and California played their way out. Missouri and St. john's sealed their fates on the wrong side of the bubble with losses to fellow bubble teams Tennessee and Providence. Tennessee and Florida State boosted their resumes, but still have work to do in their respective conference tournaments.

The Gophers play Wisconsin in the game of their season. While I previously thought they needed to win this game to even have a chance, losses by bubble teams around them make this game a win-and-in situation for Minnesota. In fact, they may still have a chance with a loss today, if they get more help from Big East bubblers Providence and Xavier. And, the Gophers RPI won't be hurt by a loss, and their SOS will rise to top-6 win or lose.

1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Kansas
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Duke, Michigan, Iowa State
4's: Virginia, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, VCU, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan State, Connecticut
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Texas
8's: Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado, Gonzaga
9's: Baylor, Dayton, Saint Joseph's, Kansas State
10's: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Stanford
11's: Pittsburgh, Iowa, SMU, Toledo
12's: Xavier, Providence, BYU, Minnesota, Southern Miss, North Dakota State
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
14's: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky
15's: UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
16's: Wofford, Stony Brook, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Mount Saint Mary's, Alabama State

FFO: Tennessee, Florida State, Missouri, California
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

March 13, 2014

This is somewhat of a mid-day update, as several games with seeding implications have finished.

1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Kansas
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Duke, Michigan, Iowa State
4's: Virginia, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, VCU, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan State, Connecticut
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky
8's: Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Gonzaga
9's: Dayton, Baylor, Saint Joseph's, Kansas State
10's: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Iowa
11's: Stanford, Pittsburgh, SMU, Toledo
12's: Xavier, Arkansas, BYU, California, Southern Miss, North Dakota State
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
14's: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Mercer, UC Santa Barbara
15's: Eastern Kencutky, North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
16's: Wofford, Stony Brook, Weber State, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Missouri, Tennessee, Minnesota
NFO: Georgetown, Florida State, Saint John's, Illinois

March 12, 2014

1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
4's: Iowa State, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, VCU, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Oklahoma, Connecticut, Ohio State, Michigan State
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky
8's: Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Gonzaga
9's: Dayton, Saint Joseph's, Baylor, Kansas State
10's: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Stanford
11's: Nebraska, Pittsburgh, SMU, Toledo
12's: Xavier, Arkansas, BYU, California, Southern Miss, North Dakota State
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
14's: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Mercer, Boston University
15's: UC Santa Barbara, Eastern Kencutky, North Carolina Central, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
16's: Wofford, Stony Brook, Weber State, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgetown
NFO: Minnesota, Middle Tennessee, Green Bay, Saint Mary's

March 11, 2014

1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
4's: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts, Iowa State
5's: Louisville, VCU, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Oklahoma, Connecticut, Ohio State, Michigan State
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky
8's: Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Gonzaga
9's: Dayton, Saint Joseph's, Baylor, Kansas State
10's: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Stanford
11's: Nebraska, Pittsburgh, SMU, Toledo
12's: BYU, Xavier, Arkansas, Providence, Southern Miss, North Dakota State
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Delaware, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Mercer, Boston University
15's: UC Santa Barbara, Eastern Kencutky, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris
16's: Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wofford, Stony Brook, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Missouri, Tennessee, Saint John's, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Green Bay, Saint Mary's, Minnesota, California

March 10, 2014

1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Villanova
2's: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
4's: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts, Louisville
5's: New Mexico, Iowa State, VCU, North Carolina
6's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State
7's: George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky, Gonzaga
8's: Oregon, Texas, Memphis, Pittsburgh
9's: Colorado, Dayton, SMU, Saint Joseph's
10's: Baylor, Iowa, Arizona State, Kansas State
11's: Stanford, Oklahoma State, BYU, Southern Miss
12's: Missouri, Nebraska, Arkansas, Xavier, North Dakota State, Toledo
13's: Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard, Georgia State
14's: North Carolina Central, Mercer, Delaware, Boston University
15's: New Mexico State, Eastern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara, Stony Brook
16's: Robert Morris, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wofford, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Saint Mary's, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Green Bay, Saint John's, Minnesota, California

March 9, 2014

1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Cincinnati, Creighton, Louisville, Virginia
4's: Duke, Michigan, Saint Louis, New Mexico
5's: Iowa State, Massachusetts, VCU, Michigan State
6's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, North Carolina, George Washington
7's: Gonzaga, UCLA, Oregon, Ohio State
8's: Kentucky, Memphis, Saint Joseph's, Texas
9's: Pittsburgh, SMU, Dayton, Colorado
10's: BYU, Arizona State, Baylor, Iowa
11's: Southern Miss, Missouri, Oklahoma State, North Dakota State
12's: Saint Mary's, Kansas State, Arkansas, Stanford, Green Bay, Toledo
13's: Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University, Delaware
15's: Mercer, New Mexico State, Eastern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Davidson, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Tennessee, Xavier, Providence, Saint John's
NFO: Nebraska, Middle Tennessee, California, Minnesota

March 7, 2014

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Virginia, Cincinnati, Creighton, New Mexico
4's: Louisville, Saint Louis, Duke, Michigan
5's: Massachusetts, Iowa State, VCU Connecticut
6's: UCLA, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oklahoma
7's: Kentucky, Gonzaga, George Washington, Texas
8's: Ohio State, Oregon, SMU, Memphis
9's: Colorado, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Pittsburgh
10's: Dayton, BYU, Missouri, Kansas State
11's: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Southern Miss
12's: Baylor, Providence, Xavier, Saint Mary's, Green Bay, North Dakota State
13's: Toledo, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Belmont, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Mercer
15's: Boston University, Delaware, New Mexico State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Davidson, Montana, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Stanford, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, Nebraska
NFO: Clemson, Saint John's, Florida State, LSU

March 6, 2014

Duke's loss to Wake Forest last night dropped the Blue Devils down one seed line, as did Saint Louis' loss to Dayton.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Virginia, Creighton, Cincinnati, New Mexico
4's: Saint Louis, Louisville, Duke, Michigan
5's: Massachusetts, Iowa State, Connecticut, North Carolina
6's: VCU, UCLA, Michigan State, Oklahoma
7's: Gonzaga, Kentucky, George Washington, Ohio State
8's: Texas, Memphis, Oregon, SMU
9's: Saint Joseph's, Colorado, Arizona State, Pittsburgh
10's: Dayton, Iowa, BYU, Missouri
11's: Kansas State, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Southern Miss
12's: Xavier, Baylor, Providence, Saint Mary's, Green Bay, North Dakota State
13's: Toledo, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Belmont, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Delaware
15's: Boston University, Mercer, New Mexico State, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Robert Morris, Davidson, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Stanford, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, Nebraska
NFO: Clemson, Saint John's, Florida State, Minnesota

March 5, 2014

Syracuse lost again last night, dropping their fourth out of five games. And although Duke and Virginia are forgivable, even expected losses, Boston College and Georgia Tech are very very bad losses. I still have the Orange at a 2-seed based on a 14-2 top-100 record, however a loss at Florida State on Sunday would more than likely drop them to the 3-line, and a quick exit in the ACC tournament could even mean a four. They have plenty of quality wins, but a #55 SOS doesn't look great against Duke's #8, Creighton's #15, and even Virginia's #30, especially when the Jays and Cavs each have zero losses outside the top-65.

By virtue of their 22nd win and a breach of the RPI top-10, I now have Michigan on the 4-line. They could potentially reach a 2-seed by winning the Big-10 tournament, but they'd need some help from teams above them. By winning their next four games (and thereby the Big10 tourney), they would jump to the 10th or 11th snake position on my bracket. It would take bad losses by two or three of the teams currently occupying the #5-#10 spots for the Wolverines to gain a 2-seed. This is very possible, as they may face Wisconsin, and a win in the Big10 final could make them both 2-seeds. Of Syracuse, Virginia, and Duke, at least two will gain a loss in the ACC tournament. And, Saint Louis will have to go through UMass, VCU, GWU and/or St. Joe's in the A10 tourney.

Speaking of conference tournaments, they're officially underway. The Patriot, Atlantic Sun, and Horizon leagues started eariler this week. None of these three have much potential for bubble spoilers, with the exception of UW-Green Bay, who could have a long shot at an At-Large bid. Ohio Valley, Big South, and Northeast conferences get started tonight, but again no potential spoilers to report. The next big one to watch for will be Wichita State's Friday matchup against the winner of Thursday's Drake/Evansville game, on their quest for 33-0.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Virginia, Duke, Saint Louis, Creighton
4's: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Michigan
5's: Louisville, Iowa State, Connecticut, North Carolina
6's: VCU, UCLA, Michigan State, Gonzaga
7's: Kentucky, SMU, Oklahoma, Ohio State
8's: Memphis, Texas, Saint Joseph's, George Washington
9's: Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado, Pittsburgh
10's: Iowa, BYU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
11's: Dayton, Missouri, Arkansas, Southern Miss
12's: Baylor, Xavier, Stanford, Providence, Toledo, Green Bay
13's: North Dakota State, Iona, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Delaware
15's: Boston University, Mercer, New Mexico State, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Davidson, Robert Morris, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Saint Mary's, Boise State, California, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Saint John's, Tennessee, Florida State, Minnesota

March 4, 2014

There weren't many meaningful matchups last night. UNC was the only ranked team in action, and barely won at home over Notre Dame, in what could have been a nasty blemish on their resume.

As a statistician, I hate outliers. They always muck up nice data sets, and skew results into significance that may not otherwise be. As applied to Bracketology, outliers are that game where a mediocre school beat a powerhouse on a down night, or that 2-seed met the #150 RPI team on the night they went 12-14 from behind the arc. Lots of bizarre things can happen over the course of a season, so in an attempt to sift through those outliers, I want to ignore each team's best win and worst loss. Below is a list of each of the 48 At Large teams' 2nd best win and 2nd worst loss. This data isn't currently factored into my projections, but I will likely incorporate it by Selection Sunday for my final predictions.

***table to be added as soon as I get home to Chrome...for a teaser, the teams that stuck out the most to me were Texas (2nd best win #11 Iowa St, 2nd worst loss #37 Kansas St) and Gonzaga (2nd best win #58 Arkansas, 2nd worst loss #154 San Diego).

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Virginia, Saint Louis, Duke
4's: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Iowa State, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, Michigan, Connecticut, North Carolina
6's: VCU, UCLA, Michigan State, Gonzaga
7's: SMU, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Ohio State
8's: Memphis, Texas, George Washington, Saint Joseph's
9's: Arizona State, Oregon, Colorado, Pittsburgh
10's: Iowa, BYU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
11's: Dayton, Missouri, Arkansas, Southern Miss
12's: Xavier, Stanford, Baylor, Providence, Toledo, Green Bay
13's: North Dakota State, Iona, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Delaware
15's: Boston University, New Mexico State, Mercer, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Davidson, Robert Morris, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Saint Mary's, Boise State, California, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Saint John's, Tennessee, Minnesota, Nebraska

March 3, 2014

Eleven ranked teams were upset over the weekend - Ohio State, Cincinnati, Louisville, Michigan State, Texas, Syracuse, Creighton, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Iowa State, and Kansas. These teams are all locks for the tournament, but their losses will stir up the seeding a bit.

A few other lower tournament bids, or bubble teams, lost as well - UMass, Colorado, Richmond, California.

Gophers update - after losing to Michigan, my projections indicate they would need to make it to at least the semifinals of the Big10 tournament, meaning three consecutive wins. Currently slated as the 8-seed, Minnesota would lock up the 7-seed with a win against Penn State and losses by both Indiana (to either Nebraska or Michigan) and Illinois (to either Michigan or Iowa). If the above assumptions pan out, the first round opponent would be the 10-seed, which at this point could still be one of four teams - Illinois, Purdue, Penn State, or Northwestern. A win in that game would move them on to face the 2-seed, very likely Wisconsin. Having beaten the Badgers once already this year, that could be a winnable matchup. Next up would be the 3-seed Spartans, who have lost four of their last six, and who the Gophers took to overtime earlier this year. It may be a long shot, but there is still a chance.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Virginia, Saint Louis, Duke
4's: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Iowa State, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, Michigan, Connecticut, VCU
6's: UCLA, North Carolina, Michigan State, Gonzaga
7's: SMU, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Ohio State
8's: Texas, Memphis, George Washington, Saint Joseph's
9's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Colorado
10's: Kansas State, Iowa, Xavier, BYU
11's: Dayton, Southern Miss, Missouri, Arkansas
12's: Middle Tennessee, North Dakota State, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Green Bay, Baylor
13's: Toledo, Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Delaware
15's: Boston University, New Mexico State, Mercer, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Davidson, Robert Morris, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Saint Mary's, Boise State, California
NFO: Saint John's, Tennessee, Minnesota, Nebraska

February 28, 2014

Holy upsets, Batman! Five out of the six ranked teams playing last night lost and three of them were huge, unexpected upsets. I have Saint Louis, UCLA, Memphis, and Iowa each slipping down one seed line, and Kentucky and Ohio State falling from the front to back of their same seed.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Kansas, Creighton, Wisconsin
3's: Saint Louis, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Iowa State
4's: Duke, Virginia, Massachusetts, Louisville
5's: New Mexico, Michigan State, Kentucky, Michigan
6's: North Carolina, UCLA, Connecticut, Ohio State
7's: Texas, Gonzaga, VCU, SMU
8's: Oklahoma, George Washington, Saint Joseph's, Colorado
9's: Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Memphis, Oregon
10's: Kansas State, Southern Miss, Iowa, BYU
11's: Stanford, Xavier, Missouri, Saint Mary's
12's: Dayton, North Dakota State, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma State, Green Bay
13's: Toledo, Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Delaware
15's: Boston University, Mercer, New Mexico State, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Robert Morris, Davidson, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Middle Tennessee, Baylor, Richmond, Minnesota
NFO: Providence, Indiana State, Saint John's, LSU

February 27, 2014

Notes from last night's games:
Michigan and UNC both eeked out 1-point wins on the road.
Baylor, Boise State, Nebraska, Richmond, Toledo and Indiana State all slid down the bubble, putting their at-large hopes in jeopardy with losses.
Arizona reclaimed the #1 overall spot with a domintaing win (their 26th) over California.
Iowa State took back their spot on the 3-line with a win over West Virginia.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Creighton
3's: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Iowa State
4's: Duke, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Mexico
5's: Kentucky, Louisville, UCLA, Michigan State
6's: Ohio State, Michigan, North Carolina, Connecticut
7's: Texas, Gonzaga, VCU, SMU
8's: Memphis, Oklahoma, George Washington, Colorado
9's: Saint Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Iowa
10's: Oregon, Kansas State, Toledo, Southern Miss
11's: BYU, Xavier, Stanford, Missouri
12's: Middle Tennessee, Green Bay, North Dakota State, Dayton, Saint Mary's
13's: Belmont, California, Oklahoma State, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Mercer, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State
15's: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Northern Colorado, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Indiana State, Baylor, Richmond, Minnesota
NFO: Providence, Arkansas, Ohio, Saint John's

February 26, 2014

After scoring fewer than 55 points in their last three games, the Gophers notched their highest point total of the season in a 95-89 win over Iowa at the Barn last night. Pitino the younger was right when he said his boys had a fire lit under them in Monday's practice. Minnesota shot 9 for 11 from behind the arc in the first half for an awesome 51 points at halftime. The Hawkeyes kept it close most of the way, shooting 48% from the floor and 40% from 3-point range. It looked like the Gophers were going to put it away, going up by 13 with 8 minutes to go, but Iowa pulled back within two with just over a minute to go. The Gophers hot free throw shooting sealed the game down the stretch, as they made 13 of 14 in the last 1:12.
1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Creighton
3's: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Duke
4's: Iowa State, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Mexico
5's: Kentucky, Louisville, UCLA, Ohio State
6's: Michigan State, Michigan, Connecticut, North Carolina
7's: Gonzaga, Texas, SMU, VCU
8's: Memphis, Oklahoma, Colorado, George Washington
9's: Saint Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Toledo, Iowa
10's: Arizona State, Stanford, Oregon, Indiana State
11's: Kansas State, Green Bay, Southern Miss, BYU
12's: Xavier, Missouri, Richmond, Middle Tennessee, Dayton, California
13's: North Dakota State, Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Mercer, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State
15's: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Northern Colorado, VMI, Alabama State

FFO: Baylor, Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State, Ohio
NFO: Boise State, Minnesota, Providence, Nebraska

February 25, 2014

I'll try to get some thoughts down here later this afternoon/evening...for now, here's my updated projections...not much has changed.

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Creighton
3's: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Duke
4's: Iowa State, Virginia, Massachusetts, Kentucky
5's: Louisville, New Mexico, UCLA, Ohio State
6's: Michigan State, Michigan, Connecticut, North Carolina
7's: Gonzaga, Texas, SMU, VCU
8's: Memphis, Oklahoma, Colorado, George Washington
9's: Iowa, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State
10's: Toledo, Stanford, Missouri, Oregon
11's: Indiana State, Green Bay, Dayton, BYU,
12's: Kansas State, Southern Miss, North Dakota State, Richmond, Middle Tennessee
13's: Belmont, California, Baylor, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Iona, New Mexico State, North Carolina Central
15's: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Northern Colorado, VMI, Alabama State

FFO: Saint Mary's, Xavier, Oklahoma State, Saint John's
NFO: Boise State, Arkansas, Providence, Nebraska

February 24, 2014

18 was quite an interesting number for the Gophers on Saturday. It's the number of points they allowed to Ohio State in a solid first half, the number of points they scored themselves in a horrendous second half, and also the margin of defeat. Having fallen off the bubble, Minnesota will need a quite unlikely surge of wins to make the big dance. They'll need at least three wins in their last 4+ games, depending on who they meet in the first round of the Big10 tournament. If the season ended today, they'd be the #7 seed facing #10 Northwestern.

It was another exciting weekend of basketball, as 3 of the top 7 teams lost, and several others made big moves in solidfying their resumes. Syracuse lost to #5 Duke, but retained their spot on the top seed line by a very narrow margin over Villanova. The win moved Duke up to a three. San Diego State lost to New Mexico, knocking the Aztecs down to the 3-line. Louisville beat Cincy, moving the Cardinals up to the front of the 5-line.

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Creighton
3's: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Duke
4's: Iowa State, Virginia, Massachusetts, Kentucky
5's: Louisville, New Mexico, UCLA, Ohio State
6's: Michigan State, Michigan, Gonzaga, Connecticut
7's: North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, SMU
8's: VCU, Memphis, George Washington, Colorado
9's: Iowa, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State
10's: Toledo, Missouri, Stanford, Oregon
11's: Indiana State, Green Bay, Dayton, North Dakota State
12's: BYU, Kansas State, Southern Miss, Richmond, Middle Tennessee
13's: California, Belmont, Baylor, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Iona, New Mexico State, North Carolina Central
15's: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Northern Colorado, Alabama State, VMI

FFO: Xavier, Saint Mary's, Saint John's, Oklahoma State
NFO: Boise State, Arkansas, Providence, Ohio

February 21, 2014

Duke and Gonzaga both suffered upsets last night, knocking them each down a seed line. UNC's victory over Duke helps continue the Tar Heels' strong late season push.

I want to talk Blind Resumes. Last night on Sports Center, they did a "Blind Resume" segment with Joey Looney. The first thing out of his mouth after they put the graphic up on the screen with the two resumes was, "So, that first team is Tennessee..." He then proceeded to compare Tennessee and West Virginia (the other "unknown" team). Am I wrong, or is the whole idea of blind resume comparison that you compare two sets of qualifications WITHOUT TALKING ABOUT THE NAMES OF THE TEAMS!!! This brings me to my own Blind Resume experiment, to illustrate what I believe is a significant bias in most bracketologists' methods.

Team 1
Record: 22-4
Conf Record: 11-2
vs. Top-100: 3-4
Non-Conf SOS: 154

Team 2
Record: 21-4
Conf Record: 10-3
vs. Top-100: 3-4
Non-Conf SOS: 130

You might say to yourself (as I do), "These two teams must both be projected at similar seeds." If so, then you might also be as surprised (as I am) that several bracketologists (including Joe Lunardi) have them 8 seed lines apart. Two BracketMatrix entries have them a whopping 10 seed lines apart! Now you can go ahead and figure out which two teams these are, and I'll admit there are several other resume factors which differentiate them (I have them on the 6- and 10- lines, respectively), but good lord let's get real. Team 1 is no better than a 5 seed, and Team 2 no worse than an 11. Kudos to those bracketologists who leave Big Name/Big Conference bias out of their brackets.

*Disclaimer: I actually do root for Team 1 most of the time, and have no significant opinion either way on Team 2.

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Iowa State
4's: UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia, Duke
5's: Massachusetts, Kentucky, Ohio State, New Mexico
6's: Louisville, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Texas
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado
8's: Pittsburgh, George Washington, North Carolina, Oklahoma
9's: Memphis, Arizona State, SMU, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Toledo, Indiana State, Kansas State
11's: Oregon, Xavier, Stanford, Green Bay
12's: Dayton, North Dakota State, BYU, Southern Miss, Saint John's
13's: Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Richmond, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Manhattan, Delware, New Mexico State
15's: Boston University, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: California, Baylor, Saint Mary's, Minnesota
NFO: Oklahoma State, Boise State, Arkansas, North Carolina State

February 20, 2014

I'm not ready to put a fork in 'em quite yet, but the Gophers have put their post season hopes in a precarious position. At this point, they can afford at most two more losses in their remaining 5+ games, which include at least three ranked opponents (Ohio St, Iowa, or Michigan). After a hot start last night, the Gophers could not get into any sort of offensive rhythm, and found every possible way to turn the ball over. It was close, but they did manage to outscore Kevin Love, who was playing across town at the same time, by just 7 points.

By far the bigger headline from last night is Syracuse's loss to Boston College. I didn't get to see much of the game, but this is an upset for the ages. BC had only 5 wins going into the contest, and an RPI barely better than #200. Some may disagree with keeping them on the 1-line, but having two fewer losses than 'Nova keeps them there for now. Two of the Orange's next three games are at Duke and at Virginia, and they'll be underdogs in both.

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Duke
4's: Iowa State, UCLA, Virginia, Michigan State
5's: Kentucky, Massachusetts, Gonzaga, Ohio State
6's: Louisville, New Mexico, Connecticut, Texas
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado
8's: Pittsburgh, George Washington, Oklahoma, Memphis
9's: Arizona State, North Carolina, SMU, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Indiana State, Toledo, Kansas State
11's: Xavier, Dayton, Stanford, Saint Mary's
12's: Southern Miss, Saint John's, Richmond, California, North Dakota State, Middle Tennessee
13's: Belmont, Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Manhattan, Delware, New Mexico State
15's: Boston University, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Bryant, Northern Colorado, Elon, Radford, Southern

FFO: BYU, Baylor, Minnesota, Oklahoma State
NFO: Providence, Boise State, Arkansas, North Carolina State

February 19, 2014

No time for any commentary today, here are the updated projections:

1's: Syracuse, Wichita State, Arizona, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Cincinnati, Creighton, Wisconsin, Duke
4's: Iowa State, UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia
5's: Kentucky, Massachusetts, Ohio State, Gonzaga
6's: Louisville, Connecticut, New Mexico, Texas
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona State
8's: Pittsburgh, George Washington, Oklahoma, Colorado
9's: Memphis, North Carolina, SMU, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Indiana State, Toledo, Kansas State
11's: California, Oregon, Xavier, Minnesota
12's: Stanford, Green Bay, Saint Mary's, Southern Miss, Saint John's, Dayton
13's: North Dakota State, Delaware, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Mercer, Manhattan, New Mexico State
15's: North Carolina Central, Boston University, Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Bryant, Northern Colorado, Davidson, Coastal Carolina, Southern

FFO: Richmond, Middle Tennessee, BYU, Baylor
NFO: Oklahoma State, Providence, Boise State, North Carolina State

February 18, 2014

Not much for notable games last night, UNC beat Flordia State, that's about it. As such, there wasn't much movement in my projections, just a couple little tweaks.

The Gophers have a must win tomorrow night at home against Illinois. A victory will put the Gophers within two wins of a locked-in spot, and move them up 1 or 2 RPI spots. Getting into the top-30 by Selection Sunday would be nice, but that'll require 4 more wins. A loss to Illinois would be the 10th of the year, and would drop the Gophers RPI to about #47.


1's: Syracuse, Wichita State, Arizona, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Cincinnati
3's: San Diego State, Creighton, Wisconsin, Duke
4's: Iowa State, UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia
5's: Massachusetts, Texas, Ohio State, Gonzaga
6's: Kentucky, Louisville, Connecticut, New Mexico
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona State
8's: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Colorado, North Carolina
9's: George Washington, Memphis, SMU, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Indiana State, Toledo, Kansas State
11's: Richmond, California, Oregon, Xavier
12's: Southern Mississippi, Minnesota, Stanford, Green Bay, Saint Mary's, Dayton
13's: Belmont, North Dakota State, Delaware, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Mercer, Manhattan, New Mexico State
15's: North Carolina Central, Boston University, Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Bryant, Northern Colorado, Elon, Coastal Carolina, Southern

FFO: Saint John's, Middle Tennessee, BYU, Baylor
NFO: Providence, North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi

February 17, 2014

We're now less than a month away from Selection Sunday, so every game is a crucial piece of each team's resume. The Gophers got the job done at Northwestern, despite not playing their best game. The Wildcats really lost the game more than Minnesota won it. Their top scorer on the season, Drew Crawford, went 1 for 15 and the team shot barely 30%.

Both of the Michigan teams fighting for the top Big10 spot lost yesterday. A hot Wisconsin team beat Michigan fairly easily in Ann Arbor, and much more surprisingly, the Huskers added a major resume booster with a win over Michigan State in East Lansing. Nebraska could very easily make a move into the field over the next couple weeks, with their next five games coming against beatable opponents. If they can win four of them, they'll have a 10-7 Big10 record, RPI north of 40, and SOS in the top 30...easily tournament numbers.


1's: Syracuse, Wichita State, Arizona, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Cincinnati
3's: San Diego State, Creighton, Wisconsin, Duke
4's: Iowa State, UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia
5's: Massachusetts, Texas, Ohio State, Gonzaga
6's: Kentucky, Louisville, Connecticut, New Mexico
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Pittsburgh
8's: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Colorado, George Washington
9's: Memphis, SMU, North Carolina, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Indiana State, Toledo, Kansas State
11's: Richmond, California, Xavier, Oregon
12's: Minnesota, Southern Mississippi, Stanford, Green Bay, Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State
13's: Belmont, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Delaware, Manhattan, New Mexico State
15's: Boston University, North Carolina Central, UC Santa Barbara, Georgia State,
16's: Vermont, Weber State, Bryant, Davidson, Coastal Carolina, Southern

FFO: Dayton, Saint John's, BYU, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Providence, North Carolina State, Baylor, Mississippi

February 14, 2014

Happy Valentine's Day all!
The Gopher's did about as well as they could have been expected to at the Kohl Center last night. They continued to fight even after falling down by as much as 15 late in the second half. The pulled within five points in the last minute, but the Badgers made enough free throws down the stretch (11-14 in the last 2 min) to keep the game out of reach. In fact, the Badgers did an amazing job getting to the line all night, scoring as many points from free throws (30 of 36) as 2-point jumpers (15 of 28).
With six games to go before the Big10 tourney, the Gophers still desparately need three wins, starting at Northwestern on Sunday, then Illinois at home next Wednesday. I won't go quite so far to say that they MUST win both of these games, but a loss in either would mean they'd need to beat either Ohio State or Michigan on the road, or both. Although Minnesota has temporarily fallen to the first team out, wins in the next two games will push them safely back into the field before their 3-game gauntlet (@Ohio St, Iowa, @Michigan).


1's: Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Creighton
4's: Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Iowa State
5's: UCLA, Virginia, Louisville, Michigan
6's: Massachusetts, Texas, VCU, Ohio State
7's: Pittsburgh, George Washington, Connecticut, New Mexico
8's: Memphis, SMU, Iowa, Colorado
9's: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, North Carolina
10's: Xavier, Toledo, Missouri, Indiana State
11's: Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State, Saint Joseph's, North Dakota State
12's: Richmond, Oregon, California, Stanford, Dayton, Southern Mississippi
13's: Belmont, Stephen F Austin, Harvard, New Mexico State
14's: Green Bay, Delaware, Manhattan, Mercer
15's: UC Santa Barbara, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University
16's: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Radford, Southern

FFO: Minnesota, North Carolina State, Mississippi, Saint John's
NFO: Providence, Georgetown, Tennessee, BYU

February 13, 2014

Syracuse needed a buzzer beater to stay undefeated last night against Pittsuburgh. Despite remaining undefeated through 24 games, Syracuse has definitely displayed some weaknesses that may be exploited come tournament time. That being said, last night's narrow win puts the Orange narrowly back into my #1 overall slot - by just a few basis points.

Speaking of basis points, I have Villanova and Florida in a virtual dead heat, separated by less than one basis point. Both teams are 22-2, with very similar SOS. Both beat Kansas, but Nova has the edge with one other quality win (#23 Iowa) and better losses (#3 Cuse & #12 Creighton) than Florida (#7 Wisconsin and #30 UConn).

Tonight is going to be a great test for Minnesota at the Kohl Center. It's really a no-lose game for the Gophers, as their resume won't be significantly affected by a loss, but a win would go a long ways in helping to lock up a bid. With as few as 8 games left before selection sunday, the Gophers need at least four wins to ensure a selection.


1's: Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Villanova
2's: Florida, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Creighton, Wisconsin
4's: Duke, Kentucky, Iowa State, Gonzaga
5's: Virginia, UCLA, Michigan, Massachusetts
6's: Louisville, Texas, VCU, Ohio State
7's: Pittsburgh, Connecticut, George Washington, New Mexico
8's: Memphis, Colorado, Iowa, SMU
9's: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Xavier
10's: North Carolina, Toledo, Indiana State, Oklahoma State
11's: Saint Joseph's, Saint Mary's, Missouri, Minnesota
12's: Richmond, North Dakota State, Oregon, California, Stanford, Southern Miss
13's: Belmont, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, Harvard
14's: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Manhattan
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University, Hawaii
16's: Vermont, Bryant, Weber State, Elon, Southern, Radford

FFO: Dayton, North Carolina State, BYU, Mississippi
NFO: Providence, Ohio, Georgetown, Tennessee

February 12, 2014

It looked like Ohio State was going to pull off a nice home win over the higher ranked Wolverines, but the Buckeye shooters went cold late in the second half, allowing Michigan to go on runs of 12-0 and 8-0 in the last 12 minutes of the game. The win all but locks up a bye for Michigan in the Big Ten tournamen, as they have a four game lead over 5-seed Ohio State with just six games remaining.

Oklahoma State had no viable replacement for suspended Marcus Smart, as they lost by 19 to a surging Longhorns squad.

The most news-worthy game of last night has me kicking myself for not writing about it yesterday. I saw San Diego State @ Wyoming on the schedule, and I thought it'd be a trap game for the Aztecs, but I didn't mention it in my post. I even went so far as to run the potential outcome through an scenario calculator to see how far the road loss would drop San Diego State's RPI. They only fell from 16th to 18th, but the 2nd loss of the season will hurt more in Tournament selection than RPI standing.

1's: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Cincinnati
3's: San Diego State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Creighton
4's: Massachusetts, Duke, Iowa State, Kentucky
5's: Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Virginia, UCLA
6's: New Mexico, Michigan, George Washington, Texas
7's: Louisville, Ohio State, VCU, Connecticut
8's: Oklahoma, Memphis, Iowa, Colorado
9's: SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State, Xavier
10's: North Carolina, Toledo, Oklahoma State, Saint Joseph's
11's: Stanford, Indiana State, Missouri, Saint Mary's
12's: Minnesota, North Dakota State, Oregon, Richmond, Southern Miss, North Carolina State
13's: Belmont, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, Harvard
14's: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Manhattan
15's: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University
16's: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Southern, Radford

FFO: BYU, California, LSU, Dayton
NFO: Mississippi, Providence, Georgetown, Tennessee

February 11, 2014

Day 2 of no Chrome...makin me cray!

Two of the three games last night featuring ranked teams resulted in upsets. Kansas State beat Kansas in OT to hand the [still] #1 RPI Jayhawks their 6th loss. West Virginia pounded Iowa State, putting up triple digits and winning easily by 25 points. Below the seeding predictions are the breakdown of bids by conference.

1's: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova
2's: Florida, San Diego State, Kansas, Saint Louis
3's: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Creighton, Wisconsin
4's: Massachusetts, Duke, Kentucky, Iowa State
5's: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Virginia
6's: UCLA, New Mexico, George Washington, Louisville
7's: Texas, Michigan, VCU, Connecticut
8's: Memphis, Oklahoma, Colorado, Iowa
9's: SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
10's: North Carolina, Xavier, Toledo, Saint Joseph's
11's: Stanford, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Missouri
12's: Minnesota, Mississippi, Oregon, North Dakota State, Richmond, Southern Miss
13's: Belmont, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, Harvard
14's: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Manhattan
15's: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University
16's: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Southern, Radford

FFO: LSU, California, BYU, Dayton
NFO: Tennessee, Clemson, North Carolina State, Providence

Atlantic 10: 6
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
Pac 12: 6
ACC: 5
American: 5
SEC: 4
Big East: 3
Mountain West: 2
MVC: 2
WCC: 2

February 10, 2014

We had two big upsets last night. Wisconsin knocked off Michigan State in Madison, and St. John's handed Creighton their 4th loss of the year. As a result, the Spartans fell down a line to a 3-seed, while Creighton moved down two snake lines but maintained their spot on the 2-line. My apologies if this post is a bit off, I've been dealing with some technical difficulties on my work computer so I'm stuck using...Internet Explorer...wow does it suck bad. 1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova 2 seeds: Florida, Kansas, San Diego State, Saint Louis 3 seeds: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Iowa State, Creighton 4 seeds: Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Duke, Kentucky 5 seeds: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Virginia 6 seeds: New Mexico, UCLA, Louisville, George Washington 7 seeds: Texas, Michigan, VCU, Oklahoma 8 seeds: Connecticut, Memphis, Colorado, Iowa 9 seeds: SMU, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State 10 seeds: North Carolina, Xavier, Toledo, Saint Joseph's 11 seeds: Stanford, Indiana State, North Dakota State, Saint Mary's 12 seeds: Missouri, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oregon, Providence, Southern Miss 13 seeds: Belmont, New Mexico State, Iona, Stephen F Austin 14 seeds: Harvard, Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer 15 seeds: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University 16 seeds: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Alabama State, Radford First Four Out: Richmond, BYU, LSU, California Next Four Out: Dayton, Tennessee, Clemson, North Carolina State

February 9, 2014

 The Gophers finally pulled out of their nose dive with a win over Indiana, likely saving their tournament chances...for now.  They have three must-win games left (Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State), and four against the RPI top-25 (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan).  Assuming the Gophers go 3-4 in these games, they'll enter the Big Ten tourney as the #6 or #7 seed, which would result in a favorable opening round game against Purdue or Penn State.  If they go 1-1 in the Big Ten tourney, they'd enter selection Sunday with a record of 19-13, RPI of ~45, and SOS of ~5. Thirteen losses is a really big number for an at-large bid.  The SOS and a couple quality wins may help, but 20-12 looks a hell of a lot better than 19-13.  And, that 20th win would have to be a quality one, further strengthening the resume.

Other news-worthy games from the weekend: Iowa crushed Michigan, SMU upset Cincinncati, Texas was blown out at K-State and OK-State lost a not-so-Smart game to #128 Texas Tech.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova

2 seeds: Florida, Kansas, San Diego State, Michigan State

3 seeds: Saint Louis, Creighton, Cincinnati, Iowa State

4 seeds: Massachusetts, Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky

5 seeds: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Virginia

6 seeds: UCLA, New Mexico, George Washington, Louisville

7 seeds: Texas, Michigan, VCU, Oklahoma

8 seeds: Memphis, Connecticut, Iowa, SMU

9 seeds: Colorado, Toledo, Arizona State, Oklahoma State

10 seeds: Kansas State, North Carolina, Xavier, Saint Joseph's

11 seeds: Stanford, North Dakota State, Saint Mary's, Missouri

12 seeds: Minnesota, Mississippi, Indiana State, Oregon, Providence, Southern Miss

13 seeds: Belmont, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, Harvard

14 seeds: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Manhattan

15 seeds: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University

16 seeds: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Alabama State, Radford

First Four Out: Richmond, Clemson, California, LSU
Next Four Out: BYU, Dayton, Tennessee, North Carolina State