I'm always hesitant to post my first bracket each year, because I know my methods generally don't align with early-to-mid season forward-looking selection predictions. It seems like I say this every year, but this year feels way weirder - for obvious reasons.
Adding to my normal first-bracket jitters is the fact I have watched almost zero college basketball this year, with the exception of parts of maybe 5 Gophers games. In some ways, this is actually a benefit, as my bracket becomes almost a de facto "blind" bracket. But in reality, the Eye Test does influence the committee, as well as other bracketologists, and therefore means some of the seeds below are going to be vary significantly from other experts' picks at this point.
One last note - because some teams have played far fewer games than others, I tried to apply some creative smoothing to some of the metrics, like quality wins and bad losses. Essentially I'm trying to ensure that 2 quality wins out of 7 games played reflects in my ratings similarly to 4 quality wins out of 14 games played.
With those caveats in mind, here's what I think seeds look like if the season ended today.
1 seeds: Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor, Houston
2 seeds: Texas, Iowa, Tennessee, Ohio State
3 seeds: Kansas, Clemson, Villanova, Missouri
4 seeds: Colorado, Wisconsin, USC, Minnesota
5 seeds: Alabama, West Virginia, Illinois, BYU
6 seeds: LSU, Virginia, Florida State, Oklahoma State
7 seeds: Drake, UCLA, Texas Tech, Boise State
8 seeds: Xavier, Virginia Tech, Saint Louis, Purdue
9 seeds: Creighton, Louisville, San Diego State, Connecticut
10 seeds: Oregon, Arizona, Wichita State, Richmond
11 seeds: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Maryland, Rutgers, North Carolina
12 seeds: Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Winthrop, Saint Bonaventure, Siena
13 seeds: Furman, UAB, Bowling Green, Navy
14 seeds: Belmont, Bryant, Cleveland State, Sam Houston State
15 seeds: Northeastern, Texas State, UC Irvine, UMBC
16 seeds: Montana State, South Dakota, Utah Valley, Southern, Jacksonville, North Carolina A&T
First four out: Georgia State, Florida, VCU, Colorado State
Next four out: SMU, Utah State, Stanford, Marquette
