March 5, 2014

Syracuse lost again last night, dropping their fourth out of five games. And although Duke and Virginia are forgivable, even expected losses, Boston College and Georgia Tech are very very bad losses. I still have the Orange at a 2-seed based on a 14-2 top-100 record, however a loss at Florida State on Sunday would more than likely drop them to the 3-line, and a quick exit in the ACC tournament could even mean a four. They have plenty of quality wins, but a #55 SOS doesn't look great against Duke's #8, Creighton's #15, and even Virginia's #30, especially when the Jays and Cavs each have zero losses outside the top-65.

By virtue of their 22nd win and a breach of the RPI top-10, I now have Michigan on the 4-line. They could potentially reach a 2-seed by winning the Big-10 tournament, but they'd need some help from teams above them. By winning their next four games (and thereby the Big10 tourney), they would jump to the 10th or 11th snake position on my bracket. It would take bad losses by two or three of the teams currently occupying the #5-#10 spots for the Wolverines to gain a 2-seed. This is very possible, as they may face Wisconsin, and a win in the Big10 final could make them both 2-seeds. Of Syracuse, Virginia, and Duke, at least two will gain a loss in the ACC tournament. And, Saint Louis will have to go through UMass, VCU, GWU and/or St. Joe's in the A10 tourney.

Speaking of conference tournaments, they're officially underway. The Patriot, Atlantic Sun, and Horizon leagues started eariler this week. None of these three have much potential for bubble spoilers, with the exception of UW-Green Bay, who could have a long shot at an At-Large bid. Ohio Valley, Big South, and Northeast conferences get started tonight, but again no potential spoilers to report. The next big one to watch for will be Wichita State's Friday matchup against the winner of Thursday's Drake/Evansville game, on their quest for 33-0.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Virginia, Duke, Saint Louis, Creighton
4's: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Michigan
5's: Louisville, Iowa State, Connecticut, North Carolina
6's: VCU, UCLA, Michigan State, Gonzaga
7's: Kentucky, SMU, Oklahoma, Ohio State
8's: Memphis, Texas, Saint Joseph's, George Washington
9's: Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado, Pittsburgh
10's: Iowa, BYU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
11's: Dayton, Missouri, Arkansas, Southern Miss
12's: Baylor, Xavier, Stanford, Providence, Toledo, Green Bay
13's: North Dakota State, Iona, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Delaware
15's: Boston University, Mercer, New Mexico State, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Davidson, Robert Morris, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Saint Mary's, Boise State, California, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Saint John's, Tennessee, Florida State, Minnesota