Thursday, December 22, 2016

December 22, 2016 *Practice Bracket #14*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Louisville
2's: Florida State, Duke, Gonzaga, Creighton
3's: Butler, Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Kentucky
4's: Xavier, UCLA, North Carolina, Virginia
5's: Maryland, Arkansas, Northwestern, TCU
6's: USC, Arizona, Florida, Clemson
7's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, North Carolina State, Oregon
8's: Providence, Purdue, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
9's: South Carolina, Illinois, Cincinnati, West Virginia
10's: VCU, LSU, Wake Forest, Dayton
11's: Valparaiso, Oklahoma State, UTA, SMU
12's: Houston, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Nevada, Temple
13's: Monmouth, Tennessee State, Winthrop, Akron
14's: East Tennessee State, Illinois State, New Mexico State, IPFW
15's: Vermont, Eastern Washington, Yale, Bucknell
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central, Nicholls State, Texas Southern, Long Beach State, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Indiana, Ole Miss, Miami (FL), Auburn
NFO: Rhode Island, Georgetown, Michigan, Georgia

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

December 20, 2016 *Practice Bracket #13*

I'll probably do one or two more practice brackets before publishing an official one around the first of the year.  

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Florida State
2's: Gonzaga, Creighton, Duke, Kentucky
3's: Minnesota, Louisville, UCLA, Butler
4's: Saint Mary's College, Xavier, Middle Tennessee, USC
5's: North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, South Carolina
6's: TCU, Arkansas, Northwestern, Florida
7's: Arizona, UNC Wilmington, North Carolina State, Purdue
8's: Pittsburgh, Providence, Oregon, Illinois
9's: West Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, VCU
10's: LSU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
11's: Houston, SMU, Clemson, Dayton, Wake Forest, Wisconsin, 
12's: Nevada, Valparaiso, Arkansas State, Monmouth
13's: Temple, Tennessee State, Akron, East Tennessee State
14's: Illinois State, New Mexico State, Vermont, UNC Asheville
15's: IPFW, Eastern Washington, Yale, Sam Houston State
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, UC Irvine, Loyola-Maryland, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Indiana, Ole Miss, UTA, Miami (FL)
NFO: Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Michigan, Georgetown

2016 Bowl Predictions

**I started on this last week, but didn't have time to get to predictions for the later bowls.

This is going to deviate a bit from the basketball theme of this blog, however I wanted to post some bowl predictions, just in case they're crazy accurate.

I started working on a college football bracketology based on trying to develop the ideal college playoff system.  For the record, I think the current +1 format is a step in the right direction, however the existing bowl schedule allows room for much more compelling match ups.

Without extending the championship game further into January, and excluding just 14 barely eligible bowl participants, we could have a 16-team playoff.  These teams would get either one or two weeks off prior to the first playoff game.  It would consist of two additional playoff rounds during the two weekends prior to the existing BCS Playoff, and would closely mirror the NCAA basketball selection process.  Each of the ten FBS conferences would receive one automatic bid awarded to its champion, plus six at-large bids.  Here's what this year's bracket would look like:

Round One - Friday 12/16 - Saturday 12/17
1. Alabama (SEC Champ) vs.
16. San Diego State (MWC Champ)

8. Wisconsin (At-Large) vs.
9. USC (At-Large)

4. Washington (Pac 12 Champ) vs.
13. Temple (AAC Champ)

5. Penn State (Big 10 Champ) vs.
12. Western Michigan (MAC Champ)

3. Clemson (ACC Champ) vs.
14. Appalachian State (SBC Champ)

6. Michigan (At-Large) vs.
11. Florida State (At-Large)

7. Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ) vs.
10. Colorado (At-Large)

2. Ohio State (At-Large) vs.
15. Western Kentucky (C-USA Champ)

Round Two - Friday 12/23 - Saturday 12/24
Semi-Finals - Saturday 12/31
Championship - Monday 1/9

And now for my actual bowl predictions:

Saturday, 12/17/16
Celebration Bowl: Grambling State 34 - NC Central 24
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico 31 - UTSA 28
Las Vegas Bowl: Houston 37 - San Diego State 30
Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State 34 -Toledo 31
Cure Bowl: Arkansas State 28 - UCF 24
New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss 28 - UL Lafayette 27

Monday, 12/19/16
Miami Beach Bowl: Tulsa 41 - Central Michigan 24

Tuesday, 12/20/16
Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky 38 - Memphis 28

Wednesday, 12/21/16
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU 33 - Wyoming 28

Thursday, 12/22/16
Potato Bowl: Colorado State 31 - Idaho 17

Friday, 12/23/16
Bahamas Bowl: Old Dominion 42 - Eastern Michigan 31
Armed Forces Bowl: Navy 35 - Louisiana Tech 30
Dollar General Bowl: Troy 34 - Ohio 21

Saturday, 12/24/16
Hawai'i Bowl: Middle Tennessee 38 - Hawaii 17

Monday, 12/26/16
St. Petersburg Bowl: Mississippi State 52 - Miami (OH) 31
Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland 17 - Boston College 16
Independence Bowl: NC State 24 - Vanderbilt 22

Tuesday, 12/27/16
Heart of Texas Bowl: Army 31 - North Texas 20
Military Bowl: Temple 31 - Wake Forest 13
Holiday Bowl: Washington State 30 - Minnesota 24
Cactus Bowl: Boise State 41 - Baylor 34

Wednesday, 12/28/16
Pinstripe Bowl: Pittsburgh 35 vs Northwestern 28
Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia 28 vs Miami (FL) 27
Foster Farms Bowl: Utah 34 vs Indiana 20
Texas Bowl: Kansas State 31 vs Texas A&M 28

Thursday, 12/29/16
Birmingham Bowl: USF 41 vs South Carolina 21
Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech 35 vs Arkansas 26
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State 30 vs Colorado 28

Friday, 12/30/16
Liberty Bowl: Georgia 24 vs TCU 20
Sun Bowl: Stanford 27 vs North Carolina 23
Music City Bowl: Nebraska 28 vs Tennessee 27
Arizona Bowl: Air Force 35 vs South Alabama 10
Orange Bowl: Michigan 35 vs Florida State 23

Saturday, 12/31/16
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl: LSU vs Louisville
TaxSlayer Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Kentucky
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: Washington vs Alabama
Playstation Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs Clemson

Monday, 1/2/17
Outback Bowl: Florida vs Iowa
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Western Michigan vs Wisconsin
Rose Bowl Game: USC vs Penn State
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs Oklahoma

Monday 1/9/17
National Championship: TBD vs TBD

Thursday, December 15, 2016

December 15, 2016 *Practice Bracket #12*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Villanova, Baylor, Creighton, Kansas
2's: Gonzaga, Florida State, Middle Tennessee, North Carolina
3's: Minnesota, Saint Mary's College, Louisville, Virginia
4's: Kentucky, Duke, Butler, USC
5's: Arkansas, UCLA, Xavier, UNC Wilmington
6's: Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Maryland, South Carolina
7's: Indiana, TCU, Northwestern, Florida
8's: Virginia Tech, Dayton, Arizona, North Carolina State
9's: Purdue, Cincinnati, Oregon, Providence
10's: Wisconsin, UCF, Arkansas State, UTA
11's: Illinois, Ole Miss, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh
12's: Texas A&M, SMU, Valparaiso, Temple, Nevada
13's: Wichita State, Chattanooga, Tennessee State, New Hampshire
14's: UNC Asheville, Monmouth, Eastern Washington, IPFW
15's: Ohio, Bucknell, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: Sam Houston State, Yale, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, Long Island, UC Irvine

FFO: Clemson, Michigan, Ohio State, Miami (FL)
NFO: Oklahoma State, Stanford, Charleston, Texas Tech

Monday, December 12, 2016

December 12, 2016 *Practice Bracket #11*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Creighton, Kansas
2's: Middle Tennessee, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Florida State
3's: Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Louisville, UCLA
4's: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Butler
5's: Auburn, South Carolina, USC, Arkansas
6's: UNC Wilmington, Purdue, Northwestern, UCF
7's: Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Xavier, Indiana
8's: Florida, Providence, Virginia Tech, Maryland
9's: North Carolina State, Arizona, Dayton, Ole Miss
10's: TCU, UTA, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
11's: Clemson, Wisconsin, Oregon, Temple
12's: Illinois, SMU, Michigan, Cincinnati, Nevada, Valparaiso
13's: Wichita State, Tennessee State, Chattanooga, Florida Gulf Coast
14's: IPFW, Monmouth, Eastern Washington, UNC Asheville
15's: Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico State, Bucknell
16's: Yale, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, Long Island, Nicholls State, UC Irvine

FFO: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Arkansas State
NFO: Charleston, Michigan State, Stanford, Texas A&M

Thursday, December 8, 2016

December 8, 2016 *Practice Bracket #10*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Creighton, Saint Mary's
2's: Gonzaga, Kansas, Minnesota, North Carolina
3's: Middle Tennessee, Duke, Arkansas, Louisville
4's: Kentucky, UCLA, Auburn, Florida
5's: USC, South Carolina, UCF, Butler
6's: Virginia, Indiana, Purdue, Florida State
7's: Ole Miss, Notre Dame, TCU, Xavier
8's: UNC Wilmington, Northwestern, Wake Forest, Maryland
9's: Providence, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Arizona
10's: Dayton, Stanford, Michigan, Virginia Tech
11's: Clemson, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Oregon
12's: Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Arkansas State, Nevada, Tennessee State
13's: Ohio, Valparaiso, Florida Gulf Coast, Monmouth
14's: UNC Asheville, Chattanooga, IPFW, Bucknell
15's: New Mexico State, Vermont, North Carolina Central, Eastern Washington
16's: Texas Southern, Southern Illinois, Yale, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, Long Beach State

FFO: Iowa State, North Carolina State, Miami (FL), Rhode Island
NFO: Charleston, SMU, Ohio State, Saint Bonaventure

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

December 7, 2016 *Practice Bracket #9*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Creighton, Saint Mary's
2's: Gonzaga, Kansas, Butler, Minnesota
3's: TCU, Xavier, Middle Tennessee, Duke
4's: Arkansas, UCLA, South Carolina, UCF
5's: North Carolina, Auburn, Virginia, Florida
6's: Louisville, Indiana, Purdue, Florida State
7's: Northwestern, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Providence
8's: UNC Wilmington, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Wake Forest
9's: USC, Temple, Maryland, Arizona
10's: Cincinnati, Clemson, Virginia Tech, VCU
11's: Arkansas State, Dayton, Michigan, Wisconsin
12's: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, Charleston, Oregon, Valparaiso, Tennessee State
13's: Nevada, Ohio, East Tennessee State, Monmouth
14's: New Mexico State, Bucknell, UNC Asheville, Illinois State
15's: Vermont, North Carolina Central, IPFW, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: Eastern Washington, Texas Southern, Sam Houston State, Yale, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Iowa State, Stanford, Miami (FL), Ohio State
NFO: Saint Bonaventure, North Carolina State, Massachusetts, Oklahoma State

Monday, December 5, 2016

December 5, 2016 *Practice Bracket #8*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Creighton, Gonzaga
2's: Saint Mary's, TCU, Middle Tennessee, Xavier
3's: Minnesota, Florida, Butler, Kansas
4's: Virginia, South Carolina, Indiana, UCF
5's: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida State, UCLA
6's: Ohio State, Northwestern, Louisville, Providence
7's: North Carolina, Purdue, Duke, UNC Wilmington
8's: Kentucky, Ole Miss, West Virginia, Cincinnati
9's: USC, Temple, Maryland, Clemson
10's: Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Arizona, Wake Forest
11's: Miami (FL), Arkansas State, Dayton, VCU
12's: Wisconsin, UTA, Rhode Island, Davidson, Nevada, Ohio
13's: Illinois State, Valparaiso, Tennessee State, IPFW
14's: Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont
15's: Utah Valley, North Carolina Central, Sam Houston State, Eastern Washington
16's: UNC Asheville, Texas Southern, Yale, Loyola-Marymount, Bryant, Cal Poly

FFO: Michigan, Iowa State, Charleston, Massachusetts
NFO: Marshall, Stanford, Oklahoma State, Oregon

Friday, December 2, 2016

December 2, 2016 *Practice Bracket #7*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Xavier, Baylor, Villanova, Gonzaga
2's: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Butler, Middle Tennessee
3's: Virginia, Minnesota, Ohio State, Florida
4's: South Carolina, Florida State, Indiana, Kansas
5's: Duke, Arkansas, Purdue, Louisville
6's: TCU, Arizona, UNC Wilmington, VCU
7's: Cincinnati, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Nevada
8's: Kentucky, Davidson, Auburn, UCF
9's: Clemson, Northwestern, Miami (FL), Wake Forest
10's: Marshall, Ole Miss, UCLA, Virginia Tech
11's: Dayton, Tennessee State, Pittsburgh, Arkansas State
12's: Temple, Valparaiso, San Diego State, Providence, Houston, USC
13's: Georgia State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Ohio, Bucknell
14's: Iona, North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Utah Valley
15's: Texas Southern, Mercer, Vermont, North Carolina Central
16's: UNC Asheville, Yale, Eastern Washington, Florida Gulf Coast, Long Island, Cal State Northridge

FFO: Stanford, Massachusetts, Oregon, Rhode Island
NFO: Maryland, Iowa State, Michigan, Nebraska

Thursday, December 1, 2016

December 1, 2016 *Practice Bracket #6*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Xavier, Baylor, Gonzaga, Villanova
2's: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Virginia, Butler
3's: Middle Tennessee, Florida, Minnesota, Ohio State
4's: Florida State, Duke, South Carolina, Kansas
5's: TCU, Louisville, Indiana, Purdue
6's: Arkansas, Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina
7's: Notre Dame, UNC Wilmington, VCU, UCF
8's: Nevada, Clemson, Davidson, Miami (FL)
9's: Northwestern, Marshall, Wake Forest, Ole Miss
10's: Auburn, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, San Diego State
11's: Providence, Dayton, Temple, UCLA
12's: Houston, Arkansas State, Iowa State, Maryland, Valparaiso, Tennessee State
13's: Ohio, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Georgia State, Bucknell
14's: North Dakota State, Iona, Northern Iowa, Utah Valley
15's: North Carolina Central, Vermont, Texas Southern, Mercer
16's: UNC Asheville, Yale, Eastern Washington, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Northridge, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Cincinnati, Oregon, Massachusetts, Stanford
NFO: USC, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Colorado State

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

November 29, 2016 *Practice Bracket #5*

Please do not include in the Bracket Matrix

1's: Xavier, Gonzaga, Villanova, Creighton
2's: Baylor, Butler, Saint Mary's, Virginia
3's: Florida, Middle Tennessee, Kansas, Old Miss
4's: Minnesota, Florida State, Ohio State, Purdue
5's: South Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, Ohio
6's: North Carolina, Arkansas, UCF, Tennessee State
7's: UCLA, VCU, Arkansas State, UNC Wilmington
8's: Louisville, Notre Dame, Auburn, Arizona
9's: Northwestern, Nevada, TCU, North Carolina State
10's: Davidson, Northern Iowa, Wake Forest, Dayton
11's: Nebraska, Providence, Clemson, Maryland
12's: Cincinnati, Rhode Island, Michigan, Houston
13's: Miami (FL), San Diego State, Temple, Massachusetts, Utah Valley, Long Island
14's: North Dakota State, Sam Houston State, Iona, Yale
15's: Lehigh, North Carolina Central, UNC Asheville, Valparaiso
16's: Mercer, Vermont, Eastern Washington, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, Cal State Northridge

FFO: Saint Joseph's, Boston University, Iowa State, Pittsburgh
NFO: DePaul, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma

Monday, November 28, 2016

November 28, 2016 *Practice Bracket #4*

As one of just 24 remaining undefeated teams, and one of just nine teams with a top-25 RPI victory, I have the Gophers slotted on the 2-line if Selection Sunday were today.  Despite this early season success, Minnesota is still not getting any love from the pollsters - zero votes in either the AP or USA Today coaches poll.  One coach even gave a 25th place vote to Arkansas, who Minnesota beat easily last week.  My point is not that individual match ups should be weighted over the full season resume, but rather that the early season polls should not be given much credence. 

The Gophers have a huge opportunity to strengthen their resume and earn some respect with their Big10-ACC challenge game at Florida State tonight.  Although they have two more top-100 match ups on the non-conference schedule as of today, Long Island and Arkansas State may no longer be in the top-100 at the time of those games.  Based on the strength of the six remaining non-conference opponents after the Seminoles, the Gophers should be able to defeat most if not all of them.  A 12-1 or 11-2 non-conference record would mean that as few as eight Big Ten wins could conceivable garner a trip to the big dance.  That may be easier said than done, however, as just four of the 18 conference games are against teams currently outside the top-100, and one site (Massey Ratings) has an expected conference win total of 6.21.  Even if they finish the non-conference schedule at 13-0, a 6-12 conference record would likely not earn a selection unless those 6 wins included very impressive wins over top-tier opponents.  For now I'll stay optimistic that Pitino the Younger can get this team to 20 wins and a tournament selection.

  • This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, and is not a projection of where I think teams will be in March.  See my earlier posts for more info on my early season bracketing methodology.
  • Please do not include this in the Bracket Matrix.

1's: Xavier, Gonzaga, Villanova, Baylor
2's: Creighton, Saint Mary's College, Minnesota, Virginia
3's: Butler, Florida, Kentucky, Middle Tennessee
4's: Kansas, Duke, Ole Miss, Ohio State
5's: Boston University, South Carolina, Purdue, Arkansas
6's: North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee State, UCLA
7's: UCF, Wake Forest, VCU, UNC-Wilmington
8's: Louisville, Auburn, Florida State, Arkansas State
9's: TCU, Nevada, San Diego State, Notre Dame
10's: North Carolina State, Michigan, Arizona, Houston
11's: Maryland, Providence, Dayton, Cincinnati
12's: Long Island, Nebraska, Clemson, Rhode Island, Davidson
13's: Northeastern, Massachusetts, Northern Iowa, Utah Valley, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
14's: North Dakota State, Valparaiso, Sam Houston State, Charlotte
15's: Iona, Yale, UNC-Asheville, Vermont
16's: Mercer, North Carolina Central, Eastern Washington, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, Cal State Northridge

FFO: Pittsburgh, DePaul, Iowa State, Oklahoma
NFO: USC, Northwestern, Temple, Miami (FL)

Sunday, November 27, 2016

November 25, 2016 *Practice Bracket #3*

After the Turkey Day games, we're down to 40 undefeated teams.  Although the bracket is starting to look more realistic every day, there are still 85 teams who have played three or fewer Div. 1 games, including eleven in today's bracket and North Dakota, who plays their very first D1 game this afternoon.  (It is quite challenging to rank a team with no games played)

Of the 40 undefeated teams, just two sit at 6-0: North Carolina & Villanova.  Tonight the Gophers will try and join that club against the Southern Illinois Salukis.  Seven other 5-0 teams play tonight, including two big-time match-ups.  Ohio State and Kentucky will likely reach 6-0, while Florida has a tough test against 4-0 Gonzaga.  The big match-ups to watch tonight will be Baylor vs. Louisville in the Battle 4 Atlantis and Butler vs. Arizona in the Vegas Invitational.

  • This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, and is not a projection of where I think teams will be in March.  See the last two posts for more regarding my early season bracketing methodology.
  • Please do not include this in the Bracket Matrix.

1's: Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, Florida
2's: Louisville, Baylor, Gonzaga, Ole Miss
3's: Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Minnesota
4's: Purdue, Duke, Ohio, UNC Wilmington
5's: Arizona, Boston University, Saint Mary's College, Miami (FL)
6's: Notre Dame, Virginia, North Dakota State, UCLA
7's: UCF, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Kentucky
8's: VCU, Auburn, Stanford, Houston
9's: South Alabama, Tennessee State, Butler, Nebraska
10's: Clemson, San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Charlotte
11's: Ohio State, Middle Tennessee, Massachusetts, Michigan
12's: Arkansas State, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
13's: Long Island, Saint Joseph's, Wake Forest, Providence
14's: Syracuse, West Virginia, Florida State, Wichita State, Winthrop, East Tennessee State
15's: Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Yale, Valparaiso, Jacksonville
16's: South Carolina State, Weber State, Monmouth, Albany, Cal State Northridge, Texas Southern

FFO: LSU, Davidson, USC, Seton Hall
NFO: Maryland, Iowa State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

November 23, 2016 ***Too-Early Practice Bracket #2***

  • This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, and is not a projection of where I think teams will be in March.
  • I typically wait until all teams have played at least 10 games before making my first real bracket.  This should happen around Christmas.
  • I did not thoroughly review the lower conference champions, so there may be discrepancies or inconsistencies with the 13-16 lines.
  • Please do not include this in the Bracket Matrix.

1's: Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, Louisville
2's: Gonzaga, Minnesota, Tennessee State, UNC Wilmington
3's: Ole Miss, Ohio, VCU, UCLA
4's: Auburn, Saint Mary's, North Carolina, Florida
5's: Kansas, Stanford, Arizona, Florida State
6's: Virginia, UCF, San Diego State, Kentucky
7's: Michigan, South Alabama, Boston University, Houston
8's: South Carolina, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Arkansas
9's: Wake Forest, Duke, Northern Iowa, Purdue
10's: Butler, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Indiana
11's: Northern Illinois, East Tennessee State, Clemson, Miami (FL)
12's: Ohio State, Middle Tennessee, Winthrop, Charlotte, Saint Joseph's
13's: Arkansas State, Seton Hall, Fairfield, Old Dominion, Wichita State
14's: Air Force, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, UC Davis, Jacksonville
15's: North Dakota State, Cal State Bakersfield, Long Island, North Carolina Central
16's: Texas Southern, BYU, Oakland, Idaho, Columbia UMBC

FFO: Providence, Wisconsin, San Francisco, Maryland
NFO: Baylor, Iowa State, Georgia Tech, LSU

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

November 22, 2016 - Early Season *Practice* Bracket

I normally wouldn't release a bracket this early, but with the Gophers' 4-0 start, this might be the only time I can include them!  Please keep in mind that this is an "If-Selection-Sunday-Were-Today" bracket, and not a projection of what I think the bracket will look like in March.  Using end-of-season methodology after only a small handful of games is borderline ridiculous, but this gives me a chance to brush up before beginning to put together some real brackets after Conference play gets underway.

A few more comments on my methods here...
  • A team outside the RPI top-75 can't be in the at-large field.
  • A team in the RPI top-25 must be selected (unless they have a losing record)
  • I didn't take the time to thoroughly review the lower conference winners, so my apologies if there are any discrepancies/exclusions/anomalies there.
  • Finally, please exclude this from the Bracket Matrix.

1's: Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, Louisville
2's: Charlotte, UNC Wilmington, Virginia, Gonzaga
3's: Saint Mary's College, Tennessee State, Indiana, Stanford
4's: VCU, Maryland, Ole Miss, Minnesota
5's: Arkansas, UCF, Ohio, Florida
6's: South Alabama, Michigan, Arizona, Kentucky
7's: Butler, UCLA, North Carolina, Northern Illinois
8's: Boston University, Dayton, San Diego State, Northern Iowa
9's: Kansas, Yale, Wake Forest, Duke
10's: Ohio State, Central Michigan, USC, Seton Hall
11's: Toledo, Saint Joseph's, Miami (FL), Syracuse
12's: Clemson, East Tennessee State, Georgia, Providence, Arkansas State
13's: Old Dominion, Elon, Air Force, South Dakota, Winthrop
14's: Fairfield, Baylor, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Wichita State
15's: UC Davis, Jacksonville, Idaho, BYU
16's: Memphis, Oakland, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, UMKC, UMBC

FFO: South Carolina, LSU, Iowa State, SMU
NFO: Florida State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Oklahoma

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

2016-2017 Pre-season Bracket

With less than 3 weeks to go until the season tips off, it's time to get back to bracketology.  Before I give my pre-season bracket, let's take a look at my pre-season projections from last year and see how they stacked up to the final bracket.

1's: Kansas, Villanova, Arizona, Virginia - not too bad here, two correctly seeded and a third the eventual champ, and a #6.
2's: North Carolina, Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland - still close to the right track with a 1-seed, a 4, and two 5's.
3's: Iowa State, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin - here's where things start to go wrong, but still all teams that made the tourney: two 4's, a 7 and an 11.
4's: Texas, Wichita State, Georgetown, Notre Dame - swing and a miss with Georgetown, otherwise two 6's, and an 11
5's: Arkansas, West Virginia, Michigan State, Oregon - nobody close here, one not even a bubble team and three badly under-seeded powerhouses
6's: Oklahoma, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Tulsa - to be fair, I would have gotten 3 of 4 if not for Louisville's self-imposed ban.  OK State whiffed on their season, and unlike all other bracketologists, I believed in Tulsa from the very beginning!
7's: Boise State, San Diego State, Utah, VCU - ouch, missed 3 of 4 here, and Utah outperformed everybody's expectations, not just mine!
8's: Temple, Butler, Xavier, Cincinnati - surprisingly close on this line with two 9's and a 10 (and Xavier a #2)
9's: Colorado State, North Carolina State, Connecticut, Davidson - just one of 4 made it, but on the right seed-line!
10's: Northern Iowa, Valparaiso, Indiana, Pittsburgh - should have been 4 for 4 if not for Valpo's conference tourney choke
11's: Purdue, Texas A&M, LSU, Old Dominion - those first two ended up pretty good, and the last two not so much...
12's: Providence, Stanford, Saint John's, Miami (FL), Ole Miss, Iona - 3 for 5 here as we move out of the at-large field
13's: Georgia State, Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Central Michigan
14's: Harvard, High Point, Wofford, North Carolina Central
15's: Northeastern, UC Irvine, Albany, South Dakota State
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, Eastern Washington, Lafayette, New Mexico State, Alabama State, Saint Francis (PA)

FFO: Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, Georgia
NFO: Memphis, Dayton, Syracuse, Massachusetts

I believe I counted 39 correctly selected teams, which I think is pretty good for not having played any games yet.  Let's see how these pre-season picks look this coming March.

1's: Villanova, North Carolina, Xavier, Oregon
2's: California, Iowa State, Louisville, Michigan State
3's: Kansas, Miami (FL), Virginia Commonwealth, West Virginia
4's: SMU, Dayton, Oklahoma, Texas
5's: Butler, Virginia, Wisconsin, Purdue
6's: Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame
7's: San Diego State, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut
8's: Indiana, Utah, Pittsburgh, Princeton
9's: Seton Hall, Michigan, Maryland, Alabama
10's: Duke, Temple, Providence, Georgia Tech
11's: Vanderbilt, Houston, Gonzaga, Illinois, Oregon State
12's: Baylor, Cincinnati, Monmouth, Arkansas-Little Rock, Valparaiso
13's: UNC Wilmington, UAB, East Tennessee State, South Dakota State
14's: Wichita State, Akron, Stephen F. Austin, Stony Brook
15's: Texas Southern, Morehead State, Winthrop, Long Beach State
16's: Cal State Bakersfield, Weber State, Boston University, Norfolk State, Wagner, North Florida

FFO: Kentucky, Syracuse, Saint Joseph's, Clemson
NFO: USC, Saint Bonaventure, Georgetown, Georgia

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Actual Bracket

1's: #1 Kansas, #4 Oregon, #2 North Carolina, #3 Virginia
2's: Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, Michigan State
3's: Miami (FL), Texas A&M, West Virginia, Utah
4's: California, Duke, Kentucky, Iowa State
5's: Maryland, Baylor, Indiana, Purdue
6's: Arizona, Texas, Notre Dame, Seton Hall

7's: Iowa, Oregon State, Wisconsin, Dayton
8's: Colorado, Saint Joseph's, USC, Texas Tech
9's: Connecticut, Cincinnati, Providence, Butler
10's: Temple, Virginia Commonwealth, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

11's: Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Michigan, Tulsa, Gonzaga
12's: South Dakota State, Yale, Chattanooga, Arkansas-Little Rock

13's: Hawaii, UNC Wilmington, Stony Brook, Iona
14's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Fresno State
15's: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Weber State, Middle Tennessee
16's: Austin Peay, Holy Cross, Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Fairleigh Dickinson, Hampton

South Region: 77 pts
West Region: 85 pts
East Region: 92 pts
Midwest Region: 82 pts

UPDATE: I'm not sure what went wrong as I was adding up the above point totals during the selection show, but I counted two extra points somewhere along the way.  True score is 334, good for about 20th out of 144 brackets, and about 12.6 points above the average.

Total Paymon score: 334

March 13, 2016 - Final Bracket

1's: Kansas, Villanova, Oregon, North Carolina
2's: Oklahoma, Virginia, Xavier, Michigan State
3's: Utah, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Kentucky
4's: California, Duke, Iowa State, Texas A&M
5's: Purdue, Arizona, Seton Hall, Maryland
6's: Baylor, Texas, Indiana, Iowa

7's: Notre Dame, Colorado, Connecticut, Saint Joseph's
8's: Oregon State, Texas Tech, Dayton, USC
9's: Virginia Commonwealth, Wisconsin, Butler, Cincinnati
10's:Temple, Saint Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Tulsa

11's: Michigan, Providence, Saint Mary's College, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Arkansas-Little Rock
12's: South Dakota State, Yale, UNC-Wilmington, Chattanooga

13's: Stony Brook, Stephen F. Austin, Fresno State, Northern Iowa
14's: Middle Tennessee, Iona, Hawaii, Buffalo
15's: Weber State, Green Bay, Cal State Bakersfield, UNC Asheville
16's: Hampton, Southern, Fairleigh Dickinson, Florida Gulf Coast, Austin Peay, Holy Cross

Thursday, March 10, 2016

March 10, 2016

1's: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma
2's: Oregon, Xavier, Utah, Michigan State
3's: West Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Duke
4's: California, Iowa State, Texas, Purdue
5's: Maryland, Texas A&M, Indiana, Arizona
6's: Iowa, Baylor, Kentucky, Colorado

7's: Oregon State, Dayton, Notre Dame, Seton Hall
8's: USC, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Butler
9's: Saint Joseph's, Cincinnati, Providence, Connecticut
10's: Saint Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Temple, Michigan

11's: Tulsa, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Saint Mary's College, Gonzaga, San Diego State
12's: Akron, South Dakota State, Yale, UNC-Wilmington

13's: Northern Iowa, UC Irvine, Arkansas-Little Rock, Chattanooga
14's: Stony Brook, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, UAB
15's: New Mexico State, Green Bay, Weber State, UNC Asheville
16's: Hampton, Texas Southern, Fairleigh Dickinson, Florida Gulf Coast, Austin Peay, Holy Cross

FFO: South Carolina, Virginia Commonwealth, Florida, George Washington

NFO: Houston, Wichita State, Georgia Tech, Washington