Tuesday, March 14, 2017

S-Curve comparison

After revealing the bracket on Sunday, the committee published its 1-68 S-Curve rankings of the teams in the field.  I managed to slot exactly 25% of the field on the correct S-Curve line, and 49 teams within three spots.

Team Drew NCAA Var Variance Teams
Villanova 1 1 0 0 17
Kansas 2 2 0 1 14
North Carolina 5 3 -2 2 8
Gonzaga 3 4 1 3 10
Kentucky 7 5 -2 4 7
Arizona 6 6 0 5 6
Duke 4 7 3 6 1
Louisville 8 8 0 7 1
Oregon 11 9 -2 8 1
Florida State 10 10 0 9 1
UCLA 15 11 -4 10 2
Baylor 9 12 3
Butler 13 13 0
Florida 12 14 2
West Virginia 19 15 -4
Purdue 18 16 -2
Virginia 16 17 1
Minnesota 17 18 1
Notre Dame 14 19 5
Iowa State 20 20 0
SMU 22 21 -1
Cincinnati 23 22 -1
Maryland 27 23 -4
Creighton 26 24 -2
Saint Marys College 25 25 0
South Carolina 33 26 -7
Michigan 24 27 3
Dayton 34 28 -6
Wisconsin 21 29 8
Miami (FL) 29 30 1
Arkansas 28 31 3
Northwestern 31 32 1
Vanderbilt 43 33 -10
Seton Hall 36 34 -2
Michigan State 40 35 -5
Virginia Tech 32 36 4
Oklahoma State 37 37 0
Wichita State 38 38 0
Marquette 39 39 0
Virginia Commonwealth 30 40 10
Xavier 41 41 0
Providence 45 42 -3
Wake Forest 42 43 1
Rhode Island 35 44 9
USC 44 45 1
Kansas State 46 46 0
Nevada 48 47 -1
Middle Tennessee 47 48 1
UNC Wilmington 49 49 0
Princeton 53 50 -3
Bucknell 55 51 -4
East Tennessee State 51 52 1
Vermont 50 53 3
Winthrop 54 54 0
New Mexico State 52 55 3
Florida Gulf Coast 56 56 0
Kent State 62 57 -5
Iona 58 58 0
Northern Kentucky 57 59 2
Troy 65 60 -5
Jacksonville State 66 61 -5
North Dakota 59 62 3
Texas Southern 60 63 3
South Dakota State 68 64 -4
UC Davis 64 65 1
North Carolina Central 61 66 5
New Orleans 63 67 4
Mount Saint Marys 67 68 1

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Committee's Bracket Revealed

True Seed - Team - My Seed - Paymon Points
1 - Villanova - 1 - 6
1 - Kansas - 1 - 6
1 - North Carolina - 2 - 4
1 - Gonzaga - 1 - 6
2 - Duke - 1 - 4
2 - Louisville - 2 - 6
2 - Kentucky - 2 - 6
2 - Arizona - 2 - 6
3 - Baylor - 3 - 6
3 - Oregon - 3 - 6
3 - UCLA - 4 - 4
3 - Florida State - 3 - 6
4 - Florida - 3 - 4
4 - Purdue - 5 - 4
4 - Butler - 4 - 6
4 - West Virginia - 5 - 4
5 - Virginia - 4 - 4
5 - Iowa State- 5 - 6
5 - Minnesota - 5 - 6
5 - Notre Dame - 4 - 4
6 - SMU - 6 - 6
6 - Creighton - 7 - 4
6 - Cincinnati - 6 - 6
6 - Maryland - 7 - 4
7 - South Carolina - 9 - 3
7 - Michigan - 6 - 4
7 - Dayton - 9 - 3
7 - Saint Mary's - 7 - 6
8 - Wisconsin - 6 - 3
8 - Miami - 8 - 6
8 - Arkansas - 7 - 4
8 - Northwestern - 8 - 6
9 - Virginia Tech - 8 - 4
9 - Michigan State - 10 - 4
9 - Seton Hall - 9 - 6
9 - Vanderbilt - 11 - 3
10 - Marquette - 10 - 6
10 - Oklahoma State - 10 - 6
10 - Wichita State - 10 - 6
10 - VCU - 8 - 3
11 - Rhode Island - 9 - 3
11 - Xavier - 11 - 6
11 - Providence - 11 - 6
11 - USC - 11 - 6
11 - Kansas State - 11 - 6
11 - Wake Forest - 11 - 6
12 - UNC Wilmington - 12 - 6
12 - Nevada - 12 - 6
12 - Middle Tennessee - 12 - 6
12 - Princeton - 13 - 4
13 - East Tennessee State - 13 - 6
13 - Vermont - 12 - 4
13 - Winthrop - 13 - 6
13 - Bucknell - 14 - 4
14 - New Mexico State - 13 - 4
14 - Iona - 14 - 6
14 - Kent State - 15 - 4
14 - Florida Gulf Coast - 14 - 6
15 - Troy - 16 - 4
15 - Jacksonville State - 15 - 6
15 - Northern Kentucky - 14 - 4
15 - North Dakota - 15 - 6
16 - Texas Southern - 15 - 4
16 - South Dakota State - 16 - 6
16 - Mount Saint Mary's - 16 - 6
16 - New Orleans - 16 - 6
16 - NC Central - 15 - 4
16 - UC Davis - 16 - 6

Total Paymon Points: 344
East: 10*6, 6*4, 2*3 = 90
Midwest: 10*6, 6*4, 1*3 = 87
South: 10*6, 6*4, 1*3 = 87
West: 9*6, 5*4, 2*3 = 80

March 12, 2017 - Final Bracket

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke
2's: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, Notre Dame, UCLA, Virginia
5's: Minnesota, Purdue, West Virginia, Iowa State
6's: Wisconsin, SMU, Cincinnati, Michigan
7's: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Maryland, Arkansas
8's: Miami (FL), VCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech
9's: South Carolina, Dayton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall
10's: Oklahoma State, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State
11's: Xavier, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, USC, Providence, Kansas State
12's: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
13's: East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Princeton, Winthrop
14's: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Northern Kentucky, Iona
15's: North Dakota, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, Kent State
16's: New Orleans, UC Davis, Troy, Jacksonville State, Mount Saint Mary's, South Dakota State

March 12, 2017 - penultimate update

With three games still underway, here is my update as of about 2:00 pm CST.  I believe the field is set, as none of the remaining outcomes will impact who gets in, only seeding.  I may still shuffle some of these seedings in the next couple hours based on further review and bracketing procedures

This bracket assumes:
-Wisconsin wins Big10.  If Michigan wins, WI falls to 5-line (Cincy or UVA moves up to 4, depending on AAC outcome) and Michigan rises to 6-line moving St Mary's to the #7.
-Cincinnati wins AAC.  If SMU wins, Cincy and SMU both move to #6 line with WVU moving up to #5 and St. Mary's falls to #7
-Troy wins Sun Belt.  If Texas State wins, they would still be a 16-seed play-in.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke
2's: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, UCLA, Notre Dame, Wisconsin
5's: Cincinnati, Virginia, Minnesota, Purdue
6's: West Virginia, Iowa State, Creighton, Saint Mary's
7's: SMU, Maryland, Michigan, Arkansas
8's: Miami (FL), VCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech
9's: Dayton, South Carolina, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State
10's: Rhode Island, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State
11's: Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Providence, Kansas State, Vanderbilt
12's: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
13's: East Tennessee State, Princeton, New Mexico State, Winthrop
14's: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Northern Kentucky, Iona
15's: North Dakota, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, Kent State
16's: New Orleans, UC Davis, Troy, Jacksonville State, Mount Saint Mary's, South Dakota State

FFO: California, Illinois, Syracuse, Iowa
NFO: Illinois State, Colorado State, Georgia, Utah

Saturday, March 11, 2017

March 11, 2017 - midday update

This is a midday update, as of approximately 1:00 pm CST.  I'll post another update this evening, and another early tomorrow morning before my final bracket around 4:00 pm tomorrow.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, UCLA, Notre Dame, Virginia
5's: Minnesota, Purdue, West Virginia, Creighton
6's: Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, Wisconsin, Iowa State
7's: Maryland, SMU, Michigan, Virginia Tech
8's: Northwestern, VCU, Arkansas, Miami (FL)
9's: Dayton, South Carolina, USC, Seton Hall
10's: Oklahoma State, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State
11's: Wake Forest, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, Providence, Kansas State
12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13's: East Tennessee State, UTA, Princeton, Belmont
14's: Winthrop, Bucknell, Akron, Cal State Bakersfield
15's: Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky, Texas Southern
16's: UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's, North Carolina Central, New Orleans, Jacksonville State, South Dakota State

FFO: California, Syracuse, Illinois, Iowa
NFO: Georgia, Illinois State. Ole Miss, Colorado State

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Quick note on Syracuse

I'm enjoying the last day of my Colorado vacation, watching Championship Week and anxious to get home and post an updated bracket.

As of last night, 107 of 135 brackets included Syracuse in the field. Here's why I believe their odds of selection are in the low single digits.  The lowest RPI included in the at-large field is usually between 65-70. Before last year, the worst ever selected was 71. Last year, the Orange broke that record by being selected with the #74 RPI. Yesterday's lOSS to Miami dropped Syracuse to the #84 RPI. Despite several impressive wins late in the season and a weaker than normal bubble, I don't believe the committee will consider a team with such a low RPI for an at-large bid.

Check back Saturday morning for an updated bracket.

Thursday, March 2, 2017

March 2, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Baylor, Kentucky, Oregon, Butler
3's: Florida, Louisville, Duke, Florida State
4's: Arizona, UCLA, Purdue, Minnesota
5's: Notre Dame, Creighton, Virginia, Cincinnati
6's: Saint Mary's, Maryland, West Virginia, Wisconsin
7's: South Carolina, Iowa State, Dayton, SMU
8's: Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Northwestern, Oklahoma State
9's: Michigan, Arkansas, VCU, Michigan State
10's: Marquette, USC, Xavier, Seton Hall
11's: Illinois, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Kansas State, Wichita State
12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UTA
13's: Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Monmouth, Vermont
14's: Belmont, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee State
15's: Bucknell, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, Eastern Washington
16's: South Dakota, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, UC Irvine

FFO: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island, California
NFO: Iowa, TCU, Georgia, Ole Miss

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:
(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, 3+ Top-100 wins)
9. Houston
10. Alabama
11. Texas A&M
12. Texas Tech
13. Boise State
14. BYU
15. Charleston
16. Colorado State
17. Colorado
18. Auburn
19. UCF
20. Memphis
21. Fresno State
22. New Mexico
23. San Diego State
24. William & Mary