Friday, December 19, 2014

December 19, 2014

I'm working on trying to hone in my method a bit more consistently, so bear with me as there may be some minor fluctuations over the next couple weeks that may not make sense. My goal is to be able to consistently rank teams based on resumes alone, without looking at the name of the school. I hope to have this method locked down by the beginning of conference play.

1's: Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Virginia
2's: Wichita State, Louisville, Wisconsin, Villanova
3's: Old Dominion, Arizona, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
4's: VCU, LSU, Texas, Colorado State
5's: Green Bay, Arkansas, Iowa State, Miami
6's: Baylor, Harvard, Washington, Utah
7's: San Diego State, Northern Iowa, Xavier, Maryland
8's: Dayton, West Virginia, Michigan State, Oklahoma
9's: NC State, Butler, Saint John's, Wofford
10's: Ohio State, Penn State, Cincinnati, North Carolina
11's: Oklahoma State, Buffalo, Boise State, Georgia Tech
12's: Texas A&M, George Washington, Davidson, TCU, Rhode Island
13's: Alabama, California, Incarnate Word, Georgia State, Long Beach State
14's: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Temple, Iona
15's: Lafayette, High Point, North Carolina Central, Mount Saint Mary's
16's: Belmont, Massachusetts-Lowell, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

FFO: Stanford, UTEP, Illinois State, Charlotte
NFO: Illinois, UNLV, Providence, Georgia

Thursday, December 18, 2014

December 18, 2014

1's: Kentucky, Kansas, Virginia, Arizona
2's: Duke, Wisconsin, Wichita State, Louisville
3's: Villanova, Old Dominion, Gonzaga, LSU
4's: Texas, Iowa State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
5's: Washington, VCU, San Diego State, Baylor
6's: Utah, Green Bay, Miami, Arkansas
7's: Harvard, Dayton, Northern Iowa, West Virginia
8's: Maryland, Saint John's, Ohio State, North Carolina
9's: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Xavier, Buffalo
10's: Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Butler
11's: NC State, Stanford, George Washington, UTEP
12's: Cincinnati, Wofford, Georgia Tech, Davidson, Illinois
13's: California, Illinois State, Gardner-Webb, Incarnate Word, UNC Wilmington
14's: Georgia State, Long Beach State, Temple, Eastern Washington
15's: Murray State, Lafayette, Iona, North Carolina Central
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, Massachusetts-Lowell, Sacred Heart, North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Alabama State

FFO: Boise State, UNLV, Texas Tech, Georgia State
NFO: Minnesota, Charlotte, Rhode Island, Alabama

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

December 17, 2014

In order to eliminate any personal bias in tweaking my regression ordering, I simply hid the Excel column with the name of the school. With that said, although last night's games in reality had minimal affect on the bracket order, this new tweaking process did result in a few teams sliding 1-2 lines one way or the other. Also, for the automatic bids, for now I'm simply using the team from each conference with the best RPI. Once conference play has begun, I'll use the conference leader, with ties being broken by best RPI. The last disclaimer I'll give here is that I did this fairly quickly and did not put forth the scrutiny in comparing resumes that later updates will involve.

1's: Kentucky, Kansas, Virginia, Arizona
2's: Duke, Wisconsin, Louisville, Wichita State
3's: Villanova, Gonzaga, Texas, Iowa State
4's: Colorado State, Old Dominion, Seton Hall, Washington
5's: LSU, San Diego State, Baylor, VCU
6's: Harvard, Miami, Northern Iowa, Ohio State
7's: Arkansas, Utah, Green Bay, Dayton
8's: Maryland, Oklahoma, UTEP, West Virginia
9's: Saint John's, Buffalo, George Washington, Michigan State
10's: Xavier, Davidson, TCU, Butler
11's: Penn State, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Boise State
12's: Oklahoma State, Eastern Michigan, Wofford, NC State, California
13's: Illinois, Texas A&M, Gardner-Webb, Incarnate Word, UNC Wilmington
14's: Georgia State, Long Beach State, Temple, Eastern Washington
15's: Murray State, Lafayette, Iona, North Carolina Central
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, Massachusetts-Lowell, Sacred Heart, North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Alabama State

FFO: Stanford, Yale, Rhode Island, Alabama
NFO: Minnesota, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Houston

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

December 16, 2014

Quick Update

1's: Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, Virginia
2's: Duke, Wisconsin, Louisville, Villanova
3's: Wichita State, Texas, Gonzaga, Seton Hall
4's: Iowa State, Old Dominion, Colorado State, Washington
5's: San Diego State, Baylor, LSU, VCU
6's: Miami, Harvard, West Virginia, Northern Iowa
7's: Saint John's, Ohio State, Maryland, Utah
8's: Arkansas, Green Bay, TCU, Penn State
9's: Dayton, Xavier, Buffalo, Boise State
10's: Alabama, Oklahoma, North Carolina, UTEP
11's: Butler, George Washington, Michigan State, Oklahoma State
12's: Saint Mary's, Eastern Washington, California, Eastern Michigan, Texas A&M,
13's: NC State, Georgia Tech, UNC Wilmington, Georgia State, Temple
14's: Wofford, Long Beach State, Murray State, McNeese State
15's: Lafayette, Iona, High Point, Mount Saint Mary's
16's: NC Central, Florida Gulf Coast, Massachusetts-Lowell, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Texas Southern

FFO: Illinois, Davidson, Stanford, Yale
NFO: Minnesota, Texas Tech, Rhode Island, Charlotte

Friday, December 12, 2014

December 12, 2014

Although I'm getting sucked into the bracketology wormhole a bit earlier this year, I still feel uneasy about posting predictions so early. I think as long as it's kept in mind that these are "if the season ended today" predictions, and not meant to be forward looking. In reality, it will still be another 3-4 weeks before some of the mid-major 'surprise' names in this bracket start to sift themselves out and then we'll see more of the big names we're used to: Creighton, Michigan, Syracuse, UMass, Cincy, UCLA...and hopefully Minnesota.

1's: Kentucky, Arizona, Virginia, Duke
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Gonzaga, Wichita State
3's: Louisville, Miami, Villanova, Iowa State
4's: Texas, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, LSU
5's: Utah, Colorado State, Ohio State, Baylor
6's: Washington, Old Dominion, North Carolina State, Seton Hall
7's: Maryland, UW-Green Bay, Dayton, Harvard
8's: TCU, West Virginia, North Carolina, Davidson
9's: Butler, Boise State, VCU, Saint John's
10's: Illinois, Penn State, Oklahoma, George Washington
11's: Iowa, Buffalo, Arkansas, Michigan State
12's: Florida Gulf Coast, Xavier, Alabama, Eastern Michigan
13's: UTEP, Georgia Tech, Connecticut, Buffalo, Georgia State, Gardner-Webb
14's: Eastern Washington, Incarnate Word, Long Beach State, Northeastern
15's: Iona, Lafayette, North Carolina Central, Massachusetts-Lowell
16's: Wofford, Sacred Heart, Belmont, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Alabama State

FFO: California, Evansville, Texas A&M, Cincinnati
NFO: Charlotte, Texas Tech, Yale, Oklahoma State

Sunday, December 7, 2014

December 7, 2014

So as it turns out, my OCD has led me to a new update just a few days after saying it's way too early to begin serious bracketologizing.  Knowing myself, I'll probably come up with a couple updates per week until the new year when I'll get after it daily.

Since it is far too early to stick strictly to the regression-based formula (as shown in my last post), this bracket includes a significant amount of tweaking from the formulaic ordering in order to arrive at what I consider a realistic selection outcome come March.  I may put together another strictly formulaic bracket just for fun.  I have not yet taken into account potential in-conference matchups or geographic issues.

1's: Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Virginia, Louisville, Villanova
3's: Texas, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Iowa State
4's: Miami (FL), Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State
5's: Harvard, Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor
6's: Seton Hall, North Carolina State, UW-Green Bay, West Virginia
7's: Utah, LSU, Dayton, Old Dominion
8's: Butler, Maryland, North Carolina, Illinois
9's: Penn State, Boise State, BYU, Iowa
10's: Yale, TCU, Washington, VCU
11's: Oklahoma, SMU, Davidson, Michigan State
12's: Colorado, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Providence, Saint John's, Massachusetts
13's: Buffalo, Georgia State, Iona, UC-Santa Barbara
14's: Eastern Washington, Massachusetts-Lowell, Holy Cross, Florida Gulf Coast
15's: Belmont, UNC-Wilmington, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
16's: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, Sacred Heart, High Point, New Mexico State, Alabama State

FFO: Nebraska, Xavier, Michigan, Texas A&M
NFO: Wyoming, Minnesota, UConn, Syracuse

Friday, December 5, 2014

Just for Kicks Regression bracket - December 5, 2014

I've been working on dialing in my regression analysis for this season to include the past 1-, 3-, and 5-years' at-large selections. Testing my coefficients on the current season-to-date results produces the bracket below. To be clear, as the season winds down in late February and early March, I will make slight tweaks based on significant anomolies, but for the most part I intend to stick fairly closely to the regression results. To be extra clear, I have made no tweaks to the blatant anomolies in the order below, and they are for illustration of process only and not intended to be any kind of real predictions or projections.

Without further ado, if the season ended today, here would be the bracket:

1's: Miami, Old Dominion, Kentucky, Arizona
2's: Iowa State, Villanova, Texas, Colorado State
3's: Duke, Louisville, Wisconsin, North Carolina State
4's: Northern Iowa, Kansas, San Diego State, Syracuse
5's: LSU, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Arkansas
6's: Purdue, Virginia, Seton Hall, Harvard
7's: Georgia Tech, Davidson, UW-Green Bay, West Virginia
8's: Butler, Michigan, Washington, Rhode Island
9's: VCU, BYU, Colorado, Charlotte
10's: TCU, Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State
11's: Valparaiso, Alabama, Buffalo, Illinois
12's: North Carolina, Wichita State, Providence, Saint Mary's, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
13's: Utah State, UC Davis, Florida Gulf Coast, East Tennessee State
14's: Belmont, Dayton, Cincinnati, Eastern Michigan
15's: Stephen F Austin, Canisius, Army, Vermont
16's: Sacred Heart, High Point, Towson, Alabama State, Norfolk State, IPFW

FFO: Stanford, Holy Cross, Georgia State, Wyoming
NFO: Oklahoma, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Maryland