Thursday, January 19, 2017

January 19, 2017

The bubble is starting to get crowded.  As teams like Indiana, Iowa State and Marquette have improved their RPI to a point where they qualify for the field, others like VCU and Pittsburgh have suffered bad losses that hurt their resumes.  Yet others like Kansas State and Wichita State just need a chance to beat some quality opponents to boost their selection stock.  Aside from those above clearly moving in one direction or another, there's very little separation between the 10-line and NFO.  I could probably add 5-6 more teams after my NFO that could vie for a bubble spot (Georgia Tech, Michigan, Utah to name a few).


This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Baylor, Florida State, Gonzaga
2's: Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville
3's: North Carolina, Butler, Oregon, UCLA
4's: Arizona, Maryland, Cincinnati, Florida
5's: Notre Dame, Virginia, Minnesota, Duke
6's: Saint Mary's, South Carolina, Purdue, West Virginia
7's: Xavier, Northwestern, Wisconsin, USC
8's: Dayton, TCU, SMU, Virginia Tech
9's: Arkansas, Michigan State, Clemson, Texas Tech
10's: Middle Tennessee, Seton Hall, Georgia, Rhode Island
11's: Wake Forest, California, La Salle, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Indiana
12's: UNC Wilmington, Akron, Nevada, Illinois State
13's: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Valparaiso, Vermont
14's: Chattanooga, UTA, Belmont, Monmouth
15's: Bucknell, UNC Asheville, North Dakota State, Princeton
16's: Texas Southern, Sam Houston State, UC Irvine, Weber State, North Carolina Central, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Marquette, Pittsburgh, Illinois, Miami (FL)
NFO: Kansas State, Ohio State, North Carolina State, VCU

Monday, January 16, 2017

January 16, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Florida State
2's: Gonzaga, Creighton, Kentucky, Oregon
3's: Notre Dame, UCLA, Butler, Florida
4's: Louisville, Arizona, Cincinnati, Maryland
5's: West Virginia, Saint Mary's, Minnesota, Duke
6's: Virginia, Xavier, North Carolina, TCU
7's: Northwestern, SMU, USC, Arkansas
8's: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Dayton, South Carolina
9's: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Middle Tennessee, Michigan State
10's: Seton Hall, VCU, Purdue, Illinois
11's: North Carolina State, UNC Wilmington, Texas Tech, La Salle, Rhode Island
12's: Miami (FL), Iowa State, Nevada, Akron, Valparaiso
13's: New Mexico State, UTA, Illinois State, Chattanooga
14's: Vermont, Florida Gulf Coast, Belmont, Monmouth
15's: North Dakota State, Bucknell, UNC Asheville, Princeton
16's: Texas Southern, Sam Houston State, UC Irvine, Weber State, North Carolina Central, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Wake Forest, Indiana, Michigan, Kansas State
NFO: California, Charleston, Houston, Wichita State

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

January 11, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Florida State, Baylor, Kansas
2's: Creighton, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Minnesota
3's: Oregon, Florida, Butler, West Virginia
4's: Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia, Louisville
5's: Xavier, North Carolina, Saint Mary's, UCLA
6's: Arizona, Cincinnati, Maryland, Purdue
7's: SMU, Clemson, Dayton, USC
8's: Northwestern, Seton Hall, TCU, Virginia Tech
9's: VCU, South Carolina, Arkansas, North Carolina State
10's: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Middle Tennessee, Texas Tech
11's: Illinois, Ole Miss, UNC Wilmington, Michigan State
12's: Iowa State, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Georgia, Oakland, UTA
13's: Akron, Nevada, Chattanooga, Florida Gulf Coast
14's: Vermont, Illinois State, New Mexico State, Belmont
15's: Monmouth, Bucknell, UNC Asheville, North Dakota State
16's: Princeton, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, Nicholls State, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Miami (FL), Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Michigan
NFO: Indiana, Nebraska, Temple, Valparaiso

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Drew's Bracketology - A peek behind the curtain

I thought it might be interesting to provide some insight into my seeding process for those who take the time to visit my bracketology blog.

First, I import team-by-team data from WarrenNolan.com for a little fewer than half of the 351 Div-I teams.  Notice Princeton and Mount St. Mary's are missing a few columns.  Once conference champs are determined in early March, I'll include all those teams in my data pull.

Next, I sort the teams based on a regression formula created from at-large seeding over the last five years.  With that as my starting point, I slide teams up and down a few spots as applicable based on the columns below as well as a few other resume criteria.  

Challenges arise when you look at resumes of teams like Butler and North Carolina with a solid list of quality wins but also multiple losses outside the top-100.  On the flip side, there are teams like Wisconsin and UNC Wilmington who have great records with no bad losses, but mediocre schedules that lack any top-50 quality victories.

As I apply manual adjustments to my at-large seed list, I keep in mind some historical precedents.   Going back at least five years, a team with an RPI better than 28 hasn't been excluded from the at-large field (welcome to the dance, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, & UNC Wilmington).  Similarly, a team with an RPI worse than 73 hasn't received an at-large bid (sorry, Michigan & Indiana).  There are other historical considerations around SOS and wins/losses that I'll apply later in the season, but at this point many of the major conference schools are still suffering from a poor non-conference SOS that will improve with conference play between now and March.

Finally, after seeding the at-large teams and FFO/NFO, I pull in the sub-12 seed conference winners.  At this point in the season I apply very little scrutiny here, and typically just include the team with the best RPI.  A bit further into conference play, I usually switch to the conference record leader.  On Selection Sunday those teams will already be determined so it's just about ranking them accurately.  At that point I will compare resumes a bit closer to try and nail down the correct seed line for as many teams as possible.  There are a lot of Paymon points available down there!

That's pretty much it.  Feel free to hit me up with questions or [constructive] criticism in the comments.

Team Rank W L RPI SOS Top-25 W Top-50 W Top-100W Sub-100L Last10
Baylor 1 14 0 2 12 3 5 9 0 10
Villanova 2 15 1 1 5 3 5 10 0 9
Florida State 3 15 1 11 35 4 6 8 0 10
Creighton 4 15 1 6 21 0 5 7 0 9
Kansas 5 14 1 4 14 1 3 9 1 10
Gonzaga 6 15 0 13 75 2 2 5 0 10
Minnesota 7 15 2 5 8 0 4 8 0 9
Kentucky 8 13 2 8 9 1 4 6 0 8
Oregon 9 14 2 10 20 1 2 6 0 10
Duke 10 14 2 15 37 1 3 5 0 9
Florida 11 12 3 3 1 0 3 7 0 7
Butler 12 14 2 7 18 3 4 9 2 8
Xavier 13 13 2 12 30 1 2 4 0 8
Notre Dame 14 14 2 25 59 1 4 5 0 8
UCLA 15 16 1 21 121 1 2 4 0 9
Louisville 16 13 3 9 3 1 2 4 0 8
Saint Marys College 17 14 1 20 74 1 2 3 0 9
Arizona 18 15 2 14 33 0 1 5 0 9
Cincinnati 19 13 2 17 48 0 1 6 0 9
Virginia 20 12 3 18 16 2 2 5 0 7
SMU 21 14 3 29 64 0 3 4 0 10
Purdue 22 14 3 30 44 1 2 4 0 9
Maryland 23 13 2 35 60 0 1 5 0 8
North Carolina 24 13 3 16 28 0 3 8 2 7
Clemson 25 11 4 33 29 2 4 7 1 8
West Virginia 26 13 2 40 126 1 3 4 0 9
Northwestern 27 13 4 44 57 2 3 4 0 8
USC 28 15 2 32 93 0 1 2 0 8
Arkansas 29 12 3 26 42 0 1 3 0 8
Dayton 30 11 3 23 23 0 1 5 0 9
Seton Hall 31 12 3 38 61 0 1 3 0 8
TCU 32 11 3 36 49 0 1 3 0 7
Virginia Tech 33 12 3 48 104 1 3 4 1 8
Virginia Commonwealth 34 13 3 31 50 1 1 4 1 8
North Carolina State 35 12 4 27 31 0 1 3 0 7
Middle Tennessee 36 12 3 19 25 1 2 5 1 8
South Carolina 37 11 3 37 45 0 0 4 1 7
Wisconsin 38 13 3 49 127 0 0 3 0 9
Pittsburgh 39 12 4 28 22 1 2 5 2 7
UNC Wilmington 40 13 2 24 90 0 0 2 0 9
Michigan State 41 11 6 34 7 1 2 5 0 7
Rhode Island 42 10 5 41 32 1 1 2 0 6
Ole Miss 43 10 5 39 13 0 0 3 0 6
Texas Tech 44 12 3 61 159 0 1 2 0 8
Wake Forest 45 10 6 22 6 0 0 3 0 5
Georgia 46 9 5 51 24 0 0 3 0 6
Iowa State 47 10 4 63 72 0 0 2 1 6
Kansas State 47.1 13 2 52 177 0 0 0 0 8
Miami (FL) 47.2 11 3 70 166 0 1 2 1 7
Indiana 47.3 11 5 109 95 2 3 3 1 6
Michigan 47.4 11 5 86 85 0 1 3 1 6
Illinois 47.5 10 5 43 19 0 2 3 2 7
Oklahoma State 47.6 9 5 54 46 0 0 2 1 5
California 47.7 11 5 64 47 0 1 1 1 6
Houston 47.8 12 4 66 128 0 1 2 1 7
Oakland 48 12 3 65 162 0 0 2 0 8
Nevada 49 14 3 42 118 0 0 2 1 9
UTA 50 10 4 45 102 1 1 2 1 9
Akron 51 11 3 67 218 0 0 1 1 8
Chattanooga 52 10 4 74 200 0 0 2 1 8
Illinois State 53 11 4 46 79 0 0 1 3 8
New Mexico State 54 13 2 84 310 0 0 1 2 10
Florida Gulf Coast 55 9 5 75 120 0 1 1 1 8
Vermont 56 11 5 78 161 0 0 0 0 7
Belmont 57 9 4 107 214 0 0 0 0 8
Monmouth 58 12 5 68 147 0 0 2 3 7
Bucknell 59 12 5 89 221 0 0 1 2 7
UNC Asheville 60 9 6 76 129 0 0 0 2 6
North Dakota State 61 9 5 108 197 0 0 1 3 6
Princeton 62 7 6 116 134

   
North Carolina Central 63 6 5 114 215 0 0 0 2 6
Texas Southern 64 7 9 59 54 0 0 1 1 3
Eastern Washington 65 8 6 131 171 0 0 0 3 6
Nicholls State 66 5 7 92 62 0 0 0 2 4
UC Irvine 67 7 9 158 98 0 0 0 3 4
Mount Saint Mary's 68 5 12 173 82