January 24, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Dayton, Duke, Seton Hall, Gonzaga

3 seeds: Louisville, Butler, Oregon, Florida State

4 seeds: Villanova, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa

5 seeds: Colorado, Creighton, Auburn, Wisconsin

6 seeds: Rutgers, Penn State, Marquette, Kentucky

7 seeds: Arizona, Ohio State, LSU, Stanford

8 seeds: Arkansas, Houston, Indiana, Michigan

9 seeds: USC, Illinois, North Carolina State, Oklahoma

10 seeds: BYU, Wichita State, Memphis, Minnesota

11 seeds: Florida, Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's College, Texas Tech, Georgetown

12 seeds: Tennessee, Xavier, East Tennessee State, Liberty, Akron

13 seeds: Yale, Stephen F Austin, North Texas, Vermont

14 seeds: Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary, Loyola-Chicago

15 seeds: Montana, Wright State, Little Rock, Winthrop

16 seeds: South Dakota State, Murray State, Hawaii, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: DePaul, Richmond, Purdue, Rhode Island

Next four out: VCU, Alabama, Utah, Georgia

January 23, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Seton Hall, Duke, Dayton, Louisville

3 seeds: Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan State, Oregon

4 seeds: Florida State, Villanova, Maryland, Iowa

5 seeds: Auburn, Creighton, Colorado, Wisconsin

6 seeds: Penn State, Ohio State, Kentucky, Marquette

7 seeds: Rutgers, Arizona, LSU, Stanford

8 seeds: USC, Illinois, Houston, Arkansas

9 seeds: Wichita State, North Carolina State, Michigan, Oklahoma

10 seeds: Indiana, Memphis, Virginia Tech, BYU

11 seeds: Liberty, Florida, Texas Tech, Saint Mary's College, Georgetown

12 seeds: Minnesota, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Akron

13 seeds: Yale, Tulsa, Stephen F Austin, Vermont

14 seeds: Western Kentucky, Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary

15 seeds: Montana, Wright State, Little Rock, South Dakota State

16 seeds: Winthrop, Hawaii, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: Xavier, Richmond, Rhode Island, VCU

Next four out: DePaul, Purdue, Alabama, Washington

January 21, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Seton Hall, Dayton

3 seeds: Gonzaga, Michigan State, Butler, Florida State

4 seeds: Oregon, Maryland, Villanova, Auburn

5 seeds: Colorado, Rutgers, Creighton, Iowa

6 seeds: Wisconsin, Penn State, Marquette, Ohio State

7 seeds: Arizona, LSU, Kentucky, USC

8 seeds: Memphis, Stanford, Wichita State, Arkansas

9 seeds: Michigan, North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Illinois

10 seeds: Virginia Tech, Indiana, Northern Iowa, Houston

11 seeds: Florida, BYU, DePaul, Saint Mary's College

12 seeds: Texas Tech, Minnesota, Purdue, Richmond, Liberty, East Tennessee State

13 seeds: Yale, Akron, Stephen F Austin, North Texas

14 seeds: Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary, Montana

15 seeds: Stony Brook, Wright State, UV Irvine, Little Rock

16 seeds: Winthrop, North Dakota State, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: Saint Louis, Tennessee, Georgetown, Arizona State

Next four out: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Virginia

January 17, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Butler

2 seeds: Duke, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Auburn

3 seeds: Florida State, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Oregon

4 seeds: Maryland, Dayton, Villanova, Louisville

5 seeds: Wichita State, Colorado, Wisconsin, Creighton

6 seeds: Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Arkansas

7 seeds: Iowa, Stanford, Rutgers, Memphis

8 seeds: Illinois, Arizona, Penn State, Indiana

9 seeds: Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, BYU

10 seeds: USC, Marquette, Houston, Liberty

11 seeds: Minnesota, Purdue, Xavier, Richmond. Texas Tech

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s College, Northern Iowa, Akron, East Tennessee State

13 seeds: Yale, Stephen F Austin, Louisiana Tech, Georgia State

14 seeds: William & Mary, New Mexico State, Montana, Colgate

15 seeds: Wright State, UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Murray State

16 seeds: Winthrop, Quinnipiac, Albany, Robert Morris, North Carolina A&T, Grambling State

First four out: Florida, Georgetown, North Carolina State, Tennessee

Next four out: Arizona State, Oregon State, Texas, Georgia

January 14, 2020

I want talk for just a moment about Gonzaga. They they are undoubtedly one of the elite programs in the country, and pass the 1-seed "eye-test" with flying colors. That being said, their resume has no recent precedent in terms of a team so good having a schedule so awful. To date, they've beaten just two tourney teams and have a NET SOS of 292. They have 6 or 7 resume games left on their schedule, including the WCC tournament, so their best case scenario is a 33-1 record, 150ish SOS, 5 Q1 wins & 5 Q2 wins. 

We only have one year of NET selection data, and last year the worst SOS in the at-large field was 26-6 Belmont's #154. That team had 2 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, and 3 losses outside Q1. Obviously this year's Zags are far superior, but can they improve their resume enough for a chance at a #1 seed?

The closest resume comparisons are actually three recent Gonzaga teams.
2013: 30-2, #6RPI, #75SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
2015: 31-2, #8RPI, #72SOS, 5 "Q1" & 4 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 2-seed
2017: 32-1, #8RPI,  #78SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
My opinion is the Bulldogs best case resume for 2020 is worse than any of the above, and has a ceiling of a 2-seed.
Projected 2020: 33-1, [#21RPI], #10NET, #150SOS, 5 Q1 & 5 Q2 wins, no bad losses.

Given their current mid-season SOS of 292, I can't even justify a top-3 seed.

1 seeds: Butler, West Virginia, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds: Auburn, San Diego State, Kansas, Oregon
3 seeds: Maryland, Wichita State, Florida State, Michigan State
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Villanova, Dayton
5 seeds: Louisville, Creighton, Colorado, Indiana
6 seeds: Stanford, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas
7 seeds: Kentucky, Penn State, Memphis, Michigan
8 seeds: Rutgers, USC, LSU, Iowa
9 seeds: Wisconsin, BYU, Illinois, Saint Louis
10 seeds: Liberty, Xavier, Arizona, Virginia Tech
11 seeds: Marquette, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Miami (FL)
12 seeds: Purdue, Texas Tech, Akron, Duquesne, Western Carolina
13 seeds: Georgia State, William & Mary, Colgate, Stony Brook
14 seeds: Montana, New Mexico State, Wright State, Nicholls
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Charlotte, Winthrop, Murray State
16 seeds: Quinnipiac, UC Riverside, Princeton, Gambling State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State

First four out: Saint Mary's, Oregon State, Utah, Minnesota
Next four out: VCU, Richmond, Oklahoma State, Houston