Monday, March 3, 2014

March 3, 2014

Eleven ranked teams were upset over the weekend - Ohio State, Cincinnati, Louisville, Michigan State, Texas, Syracuse, Creighton, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Iowa State, and Kansas. These teams are all locks for the tournament, but their losses will stir up the seeding a bit.

A few other lower tournament bids, or bubble teams, lost as well - UMass, Colorado, Richmond, California.

Gophers update - after losing to Michigan, my projections indicate they would need to make it to at least the semifinals of the Big10 tournament, meaning three consecutive wins. Currently slated as the 8-seed, Minnesota would lock up the 7-seed with a win against Penn State and losses by both Indiana (to either Nebraska or Michigan) and Illinois (to either Michigan or Iowa). If the above assumptions pan out, the first round opponent would be the 10-seed, which at this point could still be one of four teams - Illinois, Purdue, Penn State, or Northwestern. A win in that game would move them on to face the 2-seed, very likely Wisconsin. Having beaten the Badgers once already this year, that could be a winnable matchup. Next up would be the 3-seed Spartans, who have lost four of their last six, and who the Gophers took to overtime earlier this year. It may be a long shot, but there is still a chance.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Virginia, Saint Louis, Duke
4's: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Iowa State, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, Michigan, Connecticut, VCU
6's: UCLA, North Carolina, Michigan State, Gonzaga
7's: SMU, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Ohio State
8's: Texas, Memphis, George Washington, Saint Joseph's
9's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Colorado
10's: Kansas State, Iowa, Xavier, BYU
11's: Dayton, Southern Miss, Missouri, Arkansas
12's: Middle Tennessee, North Dakota State, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Green Bay, Baylor
13's: Toledo, Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Delaware
15's: Boston University, New Mexico State, Mercer, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Davidson, Robert Morris, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Saint Mary's, Boise State, California
NFO: Saint John's, Tennessee, Minnesota, Nebraska


  1. Michigan's resume is getting closer and closer to Indiana's from last year. No way an outright Big Ten champ gets a 5 seed.

  2. We shall see, I'll buy a 4-seed at this point, but not higher. Aztecs, Cavs, and Billikens have 3 up in the loss column, and Duke has a better record and better quality wins (four top-20 vs one). Seven of Michigan's eight top-50 wins come against #23 or worse.

    IMO the Wolverines need to win the Big 10 tournament to have an outside chance at a 2-seed. With 7 losses and 34 teams ahead of them in win pct (22 with top-100 SOS), they have zero chance of a 1-seed, even if they steamroll in the Big 10 tourney.

    You gotta give me something more to go on here...what about Michigan's resume makes them better than a 4-seed?

  3. Twice as many wins against the top 50 as St Louis. 4x as many as San Diego. Win PCT is the ONLY thing that SDSU or St Louis have over Michigan. They are behind in quality wins, RPI, SOS. Same goes for UMASS, Cinci, NM.

    #9 SOS. Tied for 3rd in top 50 wins. Which is what will always matter, because that is generally the cutoff for tournament teams. Wins @ WI, @ MSU, @ MN, @ Nebraska. They are most likely going to win the Big Ten by 2 games. The Big Ten is the SEC of Basketball. Every team has 5 conference wins. There is no bottom feeders. No TCU. No VT, No USC, No Missippi State.

    Take a look around, you are the outlier. St Louis is NEVER getting a 3 seed. Nothing about their resume says they should other than wins. Memphis from last year should tell you that winning isnt the only thing.

  4. Look at last years bracket. That would tell you that total wins aren't everything. Wisconsin had 7!!!! less wins than Memphis. Wisconsin #19 overall. Memphis #23 overall. Georgetown has 5 less wins than Memphis GU was #7 overall. Marquette had 3 less wins than Syracuse. That is 2 teams from the same conference. Marquette was the higher seed.

    Beating good teams and playing good in Feb and March can easily close 2 or 3 wins. That has been proven year after year.

  5. By the way. Since you are so hung up on wins, Kansas has exactly 1 more win and the same amount of losses as Michigan. So based on your theory, Kansas should be a 4ish.