Wednesday, February 8, 2017

February 8, 2017

Just a few days until the committee releases their mid-season Top 16.  I'm going to try and get a full update done Saturday morning to include Friday's results.  If not a full update, at least my own Top 16 to compare to the committee's seeding.

Not a whole lot has changed in the last few days, aside from a couple of moves in the middle of the bracket.  Most of the top seeds and bubble teams have held relatively steady.

An update just for Garett.  
As of today, I have Iowa as the 15th team out of the at-large field.  A win tonight over the Gophers would likely move them up 6-8 spots, near the edge of the bubble, but probably not quite on it.  If they could follow it up with a win at East Lansing on Saturday, they'd definitely be on the bubble, but probably not yet into the field.  Unfortunately, 10 losses with a mediocre schedule (#56 SOS) and four losses outside the top 50 are weighing down the Hawkeye's resume.  They'll need to finish off the season with at least six more victories, including at least two more big road wins out of @MN, @Mich St, @MD, @WI.  Depending what other teams do, a 21-12 finish with a top-50 SOS and 5 top-50 RPI wins should be enough to get them in.  The big key for Iowa at this point is avoiding 3 more losses in their last 8+ games.  I give them only about a 15-20% chance of selection as of today, sorry bud.

The Gophers on the other hand finally righted the ship (rowed the boat?) with a win at Illinois.  With 8 regular season games to go, including six in which they're favored, the Gophers need just 4 more wins to secure a selection.  Given the high likelihood of that scenario, the more pressing concern is how to move back into a top-6 seed to avoid a second round match-up against a #1 or #2.  With only two resume builder games left on the schedule (@MD, @WI), Minnesota may need to rely on the conference tournament for another quality win or two.  Their seeding may rely as much on what their prior opponents do down the stretch as their own success.  Seven of the Gophers prior foes are within 7 spots of the #50 RPI (5 better, 2 worse).  If those teams in the 40's fall below #50, that could hurt the Gophers resume, and makes future quality wins all the more important.  If UTA and Illinois can manage to climb back into the top-50, the Gophers could reach a #4 or #5 seed with a 7-3 finish.  The best case scenario would be wins over both MD and WI, and a deep conference tournament run for a potential #3 seed.  But for now, they just need focus on tonight's game...

"Who hates Iowa?"

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas
2's: North Carolina, Florida State, Cincinnati, Arizona
3's: Creighton, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky
4's: Butler, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin
5's: UCLA, Duke, Saint Mary's, Purdue
6's: Xavier, Maryland, West Virginia, South Carolina
7's: Notre Dame, USC, Minnesota, SMU
8's: Northwestern, TCU, Dayton, Virginia Tech
9's: Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), California, VCU
10's: Kansas State, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Marquette
11's: Michigan State, Indiana, Arkansas, Iowa State, Ole Miss, UNC Wilmington
12's: New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee, Belmont, Illinois State
13's: Nevada, Valparaiso, Vermont, Monmouth
14's: Akron, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell
15's: Winthrop, Chattanooga, UTA, North Dakota State
16's: Sam Houston State, Eastern Washington, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, UC Davis, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Michigan, Wake Forest, Alabama, Tennessee
NFO: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Wichita State

1 comment:

  1. Big win for the Gophers tonight, but no help from other teams in contention. Not a single upset on the scoreboard, with the possible exception on the Vols over Ole Miss. Gophers probably still on the #7 line despite the win.