Thursday, February 16, 2017

February 16, 2017

The Gophers kept their streak alive with a 4th consecutive Big10 win last night against Indiana.  The win really doesn't help Minnesota's resume as much as a loss would have significantly hurt it.  Help also came in the form of losses from teams near them in the bracketing.  Losses by Xavier and South Carolina helped secure their spot on the 6-line.  

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2's: Florida State, North Carolina, Louisville, Duke
3's: Oregon, Arizona, Florida, Kentucky
4's: Butler, Creighton, Cincinnati, UCLA
5's: Virginia, Maryland, Purdue, Notre Dame
6's: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Saint Mary's
7's: SMU, Xavier, South Carolina, USC
8's: Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, VCU
9's: Seton Hall, California, Dayton, Arkansas
10's: Michigan State, Miami (FL), Iowa State, TCU
11's: Michigan, Kansas State, Clemson, Georgetown, Wake Forest, Middle Tennessee
12's: UNC Wilmington, Illinois State, Akron, Vermont
13's: New Mexico State, Nevada, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14's: UTA, Belmont, Princeton, UNC Asheville
15's: Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Furman, North Dakota State
16's: Sam Houston State, Eastern Washington, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Marquette, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss
NFO: Rhode Island, Texas Tech, Alabama, Georgia

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:
(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, <4 losses outside RPI top-100)
9. Indiana
10. Pittsburgh
11. Auburn
12. Providence
13. Ohio State
14. Tennessee
15. Boise State
16. Utah
17. Illinois
18. Texas A&M
19. Iowa
20. Vanderbilt
21. New Mexico
22. San Franciso
23. Colorado State
24. Saint Bonaventure
25. Penn State
26. North Carolina State
27. Stanford


  1. I know it doesn't fit in the top 150 SOS criteria, but you should probably include Wichita in there. KenPom 13 and Sagarin 16, Mid 40s RPI and improving.

  2. Ken and Jeff are two of the brightest minds in college hoops analytics, and Pomeroy in particular is working to improve the committee's selection process (see his 1/24 blog post at Until a time when the committee embraces advanced metrics, however, we're stuck with the existing selection process which favors top-50 wins and RPI/SOS.

    If Wichita State had a bunch of quality wins to go along with their sub-150 SOS, I might consider them an at-large contender. The reality, unfortunately for the Shockers, is that regardless of advanced metrics, they haven't beaten anybody outside the MVC that's even remotely close to the at-large field. In fact, their only non-con win over a team with a winning record is Colorado State.

    Just to be clear, I'm in no way ripping on Wichita State - they're basically a coin-flip to win the MVC, in which case they'll likely get an 11 or possibly 10-seed. I'm only saying don't get hopes up for a higher seed than that.