January 31, 2014

I will admit, this post is a blatant attempt to solicit feedback - let's have it.  Below are the two teams who I believe are most under- and over- rated, based on the most recent Bracket Matrix.  Let me know what you think of my picks, and share yours.

Most Underrated: Saint Louis Billikens
I could have picked any of the top Atlantic 10 teams, really.  The Billikens have the #23 RPI and just two losses on the season, both to top 10 opponents (Wisconsin & Wichita State).  Their lack of quality wins certainly doesn't help their case for a top bid, but assuming an 8-2 finish (losses @VCU & @UMass), they'll enter the A10 tournament with the following resume:

• Top-10 record
• Top-20 RPI
• Top-50 SOS
• 3-4 record vs top-50
• 10-4 record vs top-100
• 11-3 Road/Neutral record

These numbers stack up very well against several teams that most bracketologists currently have ahead of Saint Louis, i.e. Kentucky, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and my pick below for most overrated.

Most Overrated: Iowa Hawkeyes
I'll give Herky credit for their lack of bad losses (all five to top-15 teams), but a couple of the big wins (Ohio State, Minnesota) that got the poll voters' attention now don't look quite so great.  Don't get me wrong, Iowa is safely in the tournament field, but several brackets still have them at a 4 seed (i.e. Lunardi).  That's waaaaay too high based on their current and projected resume.

Current:

• #41 win percentage (15-5)
• #31 RPI
• #36 SOS
• [Borderline] Quality wins @ #32Ohio St, #27 Xavier (Neutral), #29 Minnesota

Projected (approximate rankings):

• #50 win percentage (21-9)
• #35 RPI
• #30 SOS
• 2-4 quality wins
• 0-1 bad losses

Either breakdown warrants a 7-seed at best, more likely an 8; I have them as the top 9-seed.  If the Hawks surpass my projections above and win 7 of their last 10, I'd put them on the 6 or 7 line, and 8 more wins would get them a 5 or 6 seed.  But, with five remaning games on the road (currently 2-3), and three more against top 15 opponents (currently 0-5), I don't see a scenario where they end up above a 6-seed.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Kansas

2 seeds: Michigan State, Villanova, Florida, San Diego State

3 seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Massachusetts, Saint Louis

4 seeds: Wisconsin, Duke, Pittsburgh, Michigan

5 seeds: Iowa State, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma

6 seeds: Gonzaga, George Washington, New Mexico, Texas

7 seeds: Southern Miss, Memphis, Kentucky, Virginia

8 seeds: VCU, Connecticut, Louisville, Ohio State

9 seeds: Iowa, Missouri, Xavier, Toledo

10 seeds: Colorado, Arizona State, Minnesota, Kansas State

11 seeds: SMU, Providence, North Dakota State, Oregon

12 seeds: Saint Mary's, Florida State, Mississippi, Richmond, LSU, North Carolina

13 seeds: Belmont, Delaware, New Mexico State, Harvard

14 seeds: Stephen F Austin, Green Bay, Mercer, Canisius

15 seeds: Boston University, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, UC Santa Barbara

16 seeds: Northern Colorado, Stony Brook, Bryant, Davidson, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Saint Joseph's, Boise State, California, North Carolina State
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Stanford, Wake Forest, BYU