Sunday, March 12, 2017

Committee's Bracket Revealed

True Seed - Team - My Seed - Paymon Points
1 - Villanova - 1 - 6
1 - Kansas - 1 - 6
1 - North Carolina - 2 - 4
1 - Gonzaga - 1 - 6
2 - Duke - 1 - 4
2 - Louisville - 2 - 6
2 - Kentucky - 2 - 6
2 - Arizona - 2 - 6
3 - Baylor - 3 - 6
3 - Oregon - 3 - 6
3 - UCLA - 4 - 4
3 - Florida State - 3 - 6
4 - Florida - 3 - 4
4 - Purdue - 5 - 4
4 - Butler - 4 - 6
4 - West Virginia - 5 - 4
5 - Virginia - 4 - 4
5 - Iowa State- 5 - 6
5 - Minnesota - 5 - 6
5 - Notre Dame - 4 - 4
6 - SMU - 6 - 6
6 - Creighton - 7 - 4
6 - Cincinnati - 6 - 6
6 - Maryland - 7 - 4
7 - South Carolina - 9 - 3
7 - Michigan - 6 - 4
7 - Dayton - 9 - 3
7 - Saint Mary's - 7 - 6
8 - Wisconsin - 6 - 3
8 - Miami - 8 - 6
8 - Arkansas - 7 - 4
8 - Northwestern - 8 - 6
9 - Virginia Tech - 8 - 4
9 - Michigan State - 10 - 4
9 - Seton Hall - 9 - 6
9 - Vanderbilt - 11 - 3
10 - Marquette - 10 - 6
10 - Oklahoma State - 10 - 6
10 - Wichita State - 10 - 6
10 - VCU - 8 - 3
11 - Rhode Island - 9 - 3
11 - Xavier - 11 - 6
11 - Providence - 11 - 6
11 - USC - 11 - 6
11 - Kansas State - 11 - 6
11 - Wake Forest - 11 - 6
12 - UNC Wilmington - 12 - 6
12 - Nevada - 12 - 6
12 - Middle Tennessee - 12 - 6
12 - Princeton - 13 - 4
13 - East Tennessee State - 13 - 6
13 - Vermont - 12 - 4
13 - Winthrop - 13 - 6
13 - Bucknell - 14 - 4
14 - New Mexico State - 13 - 4
14 - Iona - 14 - 6
14 - Kent State - 15 - 4
14 - Florida Gulf Coast - 14 - 6
15 - Troy - 16 - 4
15 - Jacksonville State - 15 - 6
15 - Northern Kentucky - 14 - 4
15 - North Dakota - 15 - 6
16 - Texas Southern - 15 - 4
16 - South Dakota State - 16 - 6
16 - Mount Saint Mary's - 16 - 6
16 - New Orleans - 16 - 6
16 - NC Central - 15 - 4
16 - UC Davis - 16 - 6

Total Paymon Points: 344
East: 10*6, 6*4, 2*3 = 90
Midwest: 10*6, 6*4, 1*3 = 87
South: 10*6, 6*4, 1*3 = 87
West: 9*6, 5*4, 2*3 = 80

3 comments:

  1. Dayton and South Carolina on the 7-line are both pretty over-seeded. More than those combined, Wisconsin as a #8 is really unbelievable. I had them as a possible #4 if they won the BTT today, and slid them from the 5 to 6-line only at the very last minute. My guess is that there was some geography or matchup restriction shuffling that slid the Badgers down to the 8-line. Even still, the only resume metric that South Carolina is better than Wisconsin is SOS, which clearly weighed heavily in the committee's eyes. The Badgers' poor non-conference strength really weighed on their seeding and should be a lesson to AD's responsible for non-conf opponents.

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  2. As for Minnesota, I'm happy to have correctly picked their #5 seed. The lower consensus all season long was proven underrated. They have a very difficult matchup against the #36 RPI Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. Their SOW of 195 is low, but they have two top-50 wins and just 4 losses all season - they're accustomed to winning. If the Gophers can get past the first game, they'd likely face #4 Butler who has the 2nd best SOV (97) in the country. Butler has a few bad losses earlier in the season which cost them a top 2 or 3 seed, but they're a very tough matchup. If Minnesota can manage a Sweet 16 run, they'd likely face the #3 overall seeded UNC Tarheels who in many bracketologists' eyes (including mine) should have been a 2-seed. Can't wait to see the games unfold!

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  3. Unofficial Bracket Matrix results are in. My 342 points was good for T-58th out of 174 brackets. Although my score was 8 points better than last year, I took a slight step backward in terms of overall percentile and comparison to average. As with past years, I made last minute adjustments contrary to my prior analysis which cost me a few points.

    It feels good to have correctly picked all 68 teams, even though about two thirds of the brackets also did. Lastly, I place 38 teams on the correct seed line, tied for 52nd most among all brackets.

    I'm glad to remain among the Tier 1 bracketologists for another year, and I'm excited to get started on updating my regression anaylsis for next year!

    ReplyDelete