S-Curve comparison

After revealing the bracket on Sunday, the committee published its 1-68 S-Curve rankings of the teams in the field.  I managed to slot exactly 25% of the field on the correct S-Curve line, and 49 teams within three spots.

Team	Drew	NCAA	Var		Variance	Teams
Villanova	1	1	0		0	17
Kansas	2	2	0		1	14
North Carolina	5	3	-2		2	8
Gonzaga	3	4	1		3	10
Kentucky	7	5	-2		4	7
Arizona	6	6	0		5	6
Duke	4	7	3		6	1
Louisville	8	8	0		7	1
Oregon	11	9	-2		8	1
Florida State	10	10	0		9	1
UCLA	15	11	-4		10	2
Baylor	9	12	3
Butler	13	13	0
Florida	12	14	2
West Virginia	19	15	-4
Purdue	18	16	-2
Virginia	16	17	1
Minnesota	17	18	1
Notre Dame	14	19	5
Iowa State	20	20	0
SMU	22	21	-1
Cincinnati	23	22	-1
Maryland	27	23	-4
Creighton	26	24	-2
Saint Marys College	25	25	0
South Carolina	33	26	-7
Michigan	24	27	3
Dayton	34	28	-6
Wisconsin	21	29	8
Miami (FL)	29	30	1
Arkansas	28	31	3
Northwestern	31	32	1
Vanderbilt	43	33	-10
Seton Hall	36	34	-2
Michigan State	40	35	-5
Virginia Tech	32	36	4
Oklahoma State	37	37	0
Wichita State	38	38	0
Marquette	39	39	0
Virginia Commonwealth	30	40	10
Xavier	41	41	0
Providence	45	42	-3
Wake Forest	42	43	1
Rhode Island	35	44	9
USC	44	45	1
Kansas State	46	46	0
Nevada	48	47	-1
Middle Tennessee	47	48	1
UNC Wilmington	49	49	0
Princeton	53	50	-3
Bucknell	55	51	-4
East Tennessee State	51	52	1
Vermont	50	53	3
Winthrop	54	54	0
New Mexico State	52	55	3
Florida Gulf Coast	56	56	0
Kent State	62	57	-5
Iona	58	58	0
Northern Kentucky	57	59	2
Troy	65	60	-5
Jacksonville State	66	61	-5
North Dakota	59	62	3
Texas Southern	60	63	3
South Dakota State	68	64	-4
UC Davis	64	65	1
North Carolina Central	61	66	5
New Orleans	63	67	4
Mount Saint Marys	67	68	1

Committee's Bracket Revealed

True Seed - Team - My Seed - Paymon Points
1 - Villanova - 1 - 6
1 - Kansas - 1 - 6
1 - North Carolina - 2 - 4
1 - Gonzaga - 1 - 6
2 - Duke - 1 - 4
2 - Louisville - 2 - 6
2 - Kentucky - 2 - 6
2 - Arizona - 2 - 6
3 - Baylor - 3 - 6
3 - Oregon - 3 - 6
3 - UCLA - 4 - 4
3 - Florida State - 3 - 6
4 - Florida - 3 - 4
4 - Purdue - 5 - 4
4 - Butler - 4 - 6
4 - West Virginia - 5 - 4
5 - Virginia - 4 - 4
5 - Iowa State- 5 - 6
5 - Minnesota - 5 - 6
5 - Notre Dame - 4 - 4
6 - SMU - 6 - 6
6 - Creighton - 7 - 4
6 - Cincinnati - 6 - 6
6 - Maryland - 7 - 4
7 - South Carolina - 9 - 3
7 - Michigan - 6 - 4
7 - Dayton - 9 - 3
7 - Saint Mary's - 7 - 6
8 - Wisconsin - 6 - 3
8 - Miami - 8 - 6
8 - Arkansas - 7 - 4
8 - Northwestern - 8 - 6
9 - Virginia Tech - 8 - 4
9 - Michigan State - 10 - 4
9 - Seton Hall - 9 - 6
9 - Vanderbilt - 11 - 3
10 - Marquette - 10 - 6
10 - Oklahoma State - 10 - 6
10 - Wichita State - 10 - 6
10 - VCU - 8 - 3
11 - Rhode Island - 9 - 3
11 - Xavier - 11 - 6
11 - Providence - 11 - 6
11 - USC - 11 - 6
11 - Kansas State - 11 - 6
11 - Wake Forest - 11 - 6
12 - UNC Wilmington - 12 - 6
12 - Nevada - 12 - 6
12 - Middle Tennessee - 12 - 6
12 - Princeton - 13 - 4
13 - East Tennessee State - 13 - 6
13 - Vermont - 12 - 4
13 - Winthrop - 13 - 6
13 - Bucknell - 14 - 4
14 - New Mexico State - 13 - 4
14 - Iona - 14 - 6
14 - Kent State - 15 - 4
14 - Florida Gulf Coast - 14 - 6
15 - Troy - 16 - 4
15 - Jacksonville State - 15 - 6
15 - Northern Kentucky - 14 - 4
15 - North Dakota - 15 - 6
16 - Texas Southern - 15 - 4
16 - South Dakota State - 16 - 6
16 - Mount Saint Mary's - 16 - 6
16 - New Orleans - 16 - 6
16 - NC Central - 15 - 4
16 - UC Davis - 16 - 6

Total Paymon Points: 344
East: 10*6, 6*4, 2*3 = 90
Midwest: 10*6, 6*4, 1*3 = 87
South: 10*6, 6*4, 1*3 = 87
West: 9*6, 5*4, 2*3 = 80

March 12, 2017 - Final Bracket

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke

2's: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, Notre Dame, UCLA, Virginia

5's: Minnesota, Purdue, West Virginia, Iowa State
6's: Wisconsin, SMU, Cincinnati, Michigan

7's: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Maryland, Arkansas

8's: Miami (FL), VCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech

9's: South Carolina, Dayton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall

10's: Oklahoma State, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State

11's: Xavier, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, USC, Providence, Kansas State

12's: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont

13's: East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Princeton, Winthrop

14's: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Northern Kentucky, Iona

15's: North Dakota, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, Kent State

16's: New Orleans, UC Davis, Troy, Jacksonville State, Mount Saint Mary's, South Dakota State

March 12, 2017 - penultimate update

With three games still underway, here is my update as of about 2:00 pm CST.  I believe the field is set, as none of the remaining outcomes will impact who gets in, only seeding.  I may still shuffle some of these seedings in the next couple hours based on further review and bracketing procedures

This bracket assumes:
-Wisconsin wins Big10.  If Michigan wins, WI falls to 5-line (Cincy or UVA moves up to 4, depending on AAC outcome) and Michigan rises to 6-line moving St Mary's to the #7.
-Cincinnati wins AAC.  If SMU wins, Cincy and SMU both move to #6 line with WVU moving up to #5 and St. Mary's falls to #7
-Troy wins Sun Belt.  If Texas State wins, they would still be a 16-seed play-in.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke
2's: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, UCLA, Notre Dame, Wisconsin

5's: Cincinnati, Virginia, Minnesota, Purdue
6's: West Virginia, Iowa State, Creighton, Saint Mary's

7's: SMU, Maryland, Michigan, Arkansas

8's: Miami (FL), VCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech

9's: Dayton, South Carolina, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State

10's: Rhode Island, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State

11's: Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Providence, Kansas State, Vanderbilt

12's: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont

13's: East Tennessee State, Princeton, New Mexico State, Winthrop

14's: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Northern Kentucky, Iona

15's: North Dakota, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, Kent State

16's: New Orleans, UC Davis, Troy, Jacksonville State, Mount Saint Mary's, South Dakota State

FFO: California, Illinois, Syracuse, Iowa

NFO: Illinois State, Colorado State, Georgia, Utah

March 11, 2017 - midday update

This is a midday update, as of approximately 1:00 pm CST.  I'll post another update this evening, and another early tomorrow morning before my final bracket around 4:00 pm tomorrow.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, UCLA, Notre Dame, Virginia

5's: Minnesota, Purdue, West Virginia, Creighton
6's: Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, Wisconsin, Iowa State

7's: Maryland, SMU, Michigan, Virginia Tech

8's: Northwestern, VCU, Arkansas, Miami (FL)

9's: Dayton, South Carolina, USC, Seton Hall

10's: Oklahoma State, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State

11's: Wake Forest, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, Providence, Kansas State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont

13's: East Tennessee State, UTA, Princeton, Belmont

14's: Winthrop, Bucknell, Akron, Cal State Bakersfield

15's: Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky, Texas Southern

16's: UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's, North Carolina Central, New Orleans, Jacksonville State, South Dakota State

FFO: California, Syracuse, Illinois, Iowa

NFO: Georgia, Illinois State. Ole Miss, Colorado State

Quick note on Syracuse

I'm enjoying the last day of my Colorado vacation, watching Championship Week and anxious to get home and post an updated bracket.

As of last night, 107 of 135 brackets included Syracuse in the field. Here's why I believe their odds of selection are in the low single digits.  The lowest RPI included in the at-large field is usually between 65-70. Before last year, the worst ever selected was 71. Last year, the Orange broke that record by being selected with the #74 RPI. Yesterday's lOSS to Miami dropped Syracuse to the #84 RPI. Despite several impressive wins late in the season and a weaker than normal bubble, I don't believe the committee will consider a team with such a low RPI for an at-large bid.

Check back Saturday morning for an updated bracket.

March 2, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Baylor, Kentucky, Oregon, Butler
3's: Florida, Louisville, Duke, Florida State
4's: Arizona, UCLA, Purdue, Minnesota

5's: Notre Dame, Creighton, Virginia, Cincinnati
6's: Saint Mary's, Maryland, West Virginia, Wisconsin

7's: South Carolina, Iowa State, Dayton, SMU

8's: Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Northwestern, Oklahoma State

9's: Michigan, Arkansas, VCU, Michigan State

10's: Marquette, USC, Xavier, Seton Hall

11's: Illinois, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Kansas State, Wichita State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UTA

13's: Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Monmouth, Vermont

14's: Belmont, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee State

15's: Bucknell, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, Eastern Washington

16's: South Dakota, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, UC Irvine

FFO: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island, California

NFO: Iowa, TCU, Georgia, Ole Miss

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:

(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, 3+ Top-100 wins)

9. Houston

10. Alabama

11. Texas A&M

12. Texas Tech

13. Boise State

14. BYU

15. Charleston

16. Colorado State

17. Colorado

18. Auburn

19. UCF

20. Memphis

21. Fresno State

22. New Mexico

23. San Diego State

24. William & Mary

March 1, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky, Oregon
3's: Butler, Florida, Arizona, Duke
4's: Florida State, UCLA, Purdue, Minnesota

5's: Notre Dame, Creighton, Virginia, Cincinnati
6's: Saint Mary's, Maryland, Wisconsin, West Virginia

7's: SMU, Iowa State, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)

8's: South Carolina, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Michigan

9's: VCU, Xavier, Michigan State, Arkansas

10's: Northwestern, USC, Seton Hall, Marquette

11's: Providence, Illinois, Kansas State, Rhode Island, Ohio State, Wichita State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UTA

13's: New Mexico State, Monmouth, Vermont, Valparaiso

14's: Belmont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell

15's: Akron, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota

16's: Eastern Washington, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, UC Irvine

FFO: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, TCU

NFO: Georgia, California, Ole Miss, Iowa

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:

(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, 3+ Top-100 wins)

9. Texas Tech

10. Texas A&M

11. Houston

12. Boise State

13. Colorado State

14. Charleston

15. BYU

16. Fresno State

17. Alabama

18. Auburn

19. UCF

20. Colorado

21. Memphis

22. New Mexico

23. San Diego State

24. La Salle

25. William & Mary