Monday, February 29, 2016

February 29, 2016

1's: Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Oregon
2's: Virginia, Michigan State, Utah, Xavier
3's: North Carolina, Miami (FL), West Virginia, Maryland
4's: California, Iowa State, Duke, Texas
5's: Baylor, Iowa, Texas A&M, Purdue
6's: Arizona, Kentucky, Colorado, Texas Tech

7's: Oregon State, Notre Dame, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall
8's: Dayton, Indiana, Connecticut, USC
9's: South Carolina, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Michigan
10's: Cincinnati, Tulsa, Vanderbilt, Syracuse

11's: Florida, Butler, Stanford, Alabama, Wichita State, San Diego State
12's: Saint Mary's College, Princeton, Arkansas-Little Rock, Monmouth
13's: Valparaiso, Hofstra, UC Irvine, Chattanooga
14's: Stony Brook, UAB, South Dakota State, Belmont
15's: Akron, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Winthrop
16's: Weber State, North Florida, Bucknell, Hampton, Wagner, Texas Southern

FFO: Temple, Saint Bonaventure, Providence, Washington

NFO: George Washington, Virginia Commonwealth, Florida State, Gonzaga


  1. So the #11 team in the polls, Indiana, gets an 8 seed? Something doesn't compute.

  2. Ive been following his bracket for a while. IU doesnt go up in his bracket when they win. They drop though when they lose. I think because he does it everyday he has a hard time justifying a rise vs a fall. Thats the only thing i can come up with.

    Oregon St. as a 7. Maryland as a 3 who lost to the Gophers and have been on a decline recently.

    Dont get some of em.

  3. To clarify, the polls are not measuring the same thing as bracket projections, and the selection committee doesn't take into account some coaches and journalists opinions when forming their bracket. The polls are a measurement (often misinformed and/or biased) of a team's current strength. A bracket projection is a measurement of a team's season-long resume, with recent games typically given only slightly more weight than earlier ones.

    Stang is correct that I don't heavily factor a team's most recent game result into my projection. If the game is significant (e.g. a team's first sub-100 loss or second top-25 win) it may result in a mover of several spots on the bracket. But, if it's less significant in the big season-long picture, such as a 10th top-50 win or a top-25 loss, then it shouldn't move the meter much at all. My personal opinion is that most bracketologists are too knee-jerk in their late-season seed adjustments.

    As for the teams specifically mentioned, I'm happy to discuss reasons you feel I may have them too high or low. In Maryland's case, I have themy two spots lower than their #10 RPI, largely due to an unimpressive strength of victory and significantly less so due to their lone recent bad loss to Minnesota. I assume from your comment you believe they should be lower, and I wouldn't argue with a 4-seed; I have them as my last #3. I'd have to hear a good argument to slide them down below a 4.