Sunday, February 14, 2016

February 14, 2016

1's: Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova, Oregon
2's: Xavier, Virginia, Maryland, Iowa
3's: West Virginia, Dayton, North Carolina, Iowa State
4's: Utah, Miami (FL), Duke, Michigan State
5's: Notre Dame, Purdue, Arizona, USC
6's: California, Colorado, Kentucky, Texas A&M
7's: Oregon State, Texas, South Carolina, Baylor
8's: Syracuse, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph's, Michigan
9's: Connecticut, Florida State, Florida, Washington
10's: Pittsburgh, Stanford, Alabama, Seton Hall
11's: Providence, Indiana, Tulsa, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Wichita State
12's: Monmouth, Hawaii, Arkansas-Little Rock, San Diego State
13's: Chattanooga, Stony Brook, Yale, Valparaiso
14's: UNC-Wilmington, William & Mary, South Dakota State, Middle Tennessee
15's: Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Winthrop
16's: Montana, North Florida, Navy, Southern, Hampton, Wagner

FFO: Virginia Commonwealth, Saint Bonaventure, Vanderbilt, Butler
NFO: Kansas State, Clemson, Temple, UCLA


  1. Pac 12 fan ? None of those Pac 12 teams have a resume better than Kentucky and yet you have Arizona, USC, California and Colorado all ahead of Kentucky ?

    How in the world is Stanford in your field ? Do you know they are 11-11 ? Come on man that is absurd.

    Kentucky a 6 seed ? Duke you have as a 4 seed.

    Kentucky beat Duke by 11 on a neutral court.

    Both teams are 19-6

    Kentucky RPI is 13, has 5 top 50 wins, 10 top 100 wins, non conf SOS of 6, overall SOS of 27

    Duke RPI is 17, has 3 top 50 wins, 9 top 100 wins.

    Kentucky has 2 sub 100 losses, Duke has 0.

    Kentucky has 2 wins away from home vs NCAA lock teams (Duke and @South Carolina)

    Duke has 0 wins away from home vs NCAA lock teams.

    Good thing the refs missed that travel otherwise Duke profile would look more like a 6 seed than a 4 seed.

    Not seeing how Duke is ahead of Kentucky at all and you have them 2 seeds ahead.

    Arizona has 2 top 50 wins and only 1 vs a sure fire NCAA team (and that happened last night so you had them that high BEFORE they beat USC).

    California is 1-8 away from home....1-8! They beat the great Wyoming on the road. You need to do better on the road to get a 6 seed that is absurdly high for a team that has done zero on the road.

    Before you rip me for challenging your bracket just know I have been doing this since the 80s and I am 8-1-1 vs Jerry Palm heads up since they started the bracket matrix. Ok I know that isn't saying much but maybe this is I scored 351 pts (higher than all 136 people at bracket matrix last year the winner had 347) I post my seeds right before selection Sunday on 2 different forums every year before Selection Sunday (since I don't have a website).

  2. Henry-
    I appreciate the feedback, and moreso that you lay out a numbers case for your argument. I'll never rip a credible challenge.

    As for the methods behind my madness, my analysis weighs a team's quality of wins & losses, as well as number of total losses, but not number of total wins or win percentage. I've found through various regression analyses that total wins and win percentage don't weigh nearly as heavily in at-large selection as number and quality of losses.

    As such, I really don't take into account the number of Stanford's wins or their win percentage, but rather I focus on their 11 losses. And while it would be extremely unlikely and unprecedented for a .500 team to receive an at-large bid, there is precedent for selection of teams with 13 or 14 losses with extremely strong schedules. ('11 Michigan St, '08 Arizona, '01 Georgia) With the #1 SOS and relatively poor pool of bubble teams, I have them in the field for now.

    As for Duke vs Kentucky, I can't say that I do significant head-to-head comparison prior to about a week before selection Sunday, but my above statements about weighing losses versus wins should provide some insight into where those two teams land in my analysis. Kentucky has a very slight edge in top 25/50/100 win lines (1/5/10 to Duke's 1/3/9), however the two teams' six losses are not close. Kentucky's losses are 1,68,72,84,125,145 - mean of 82.5 and Duke's are 9,14,16,19,39,88 - mean of 30.8. I will concede that they may be closer than the 8 spots apart I have them, but I stand by Duke as the higher likely seed. Kentucky's bad losses weigh very heavily on their resume, which caused me to slot them below the PAC 12 teams you mentioned.

    For the record, I have no PAC 12 loyalties, I'm a Big Ten guy. I appreciate your feedback.