January 17, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Butler

2 seeds: Duke, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Auburn

3 seeds: Florida State, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Oregon

4 seeds: Maryland, Dayton, Villanova, Louisville

5 seeds: Wichita State, Colorado, Wisconsin, Creighton

6 seeds: Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Arkansas

7 seeds: Iowa, Stanford, Rutgers, Memphis

8 seeds: Illinois, Arizona, Penn State, Indiana

9 seeds: Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, BYU

10 seeds: USC, Marquette, Houston, Liberty

11 seeds: Minnesota, Purdue, Xavier, Richmond. Texas Tech

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s College, Northern Iowa, Akron, East Tennessee State

13 seeds: Yale, Stephen F Austin, Louisiana Tech, Georgia State

14 seeds: William & Mary, New Mexico State, Montana, Colgate

15 seeds: Wright State, UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Murray State

16 seeds: Winthrop, Quinnipiac, Albany, Robert Morris, North Carolina A&T, Grambling State

First four out: Florida, Georgetown, North Carolina State, Tennessee

Next four out: Arizona State, Oregon State, Texas, Georgia

January 14, 2020

I want talk for just a moment about Gonzaga. They they are undoubtedly one of the elite programs in the country, and pass the 1-seed "eye-test" with flying colors. That being said, their resume has no recent precedent in terms of a team so good having a schedule so awful. To date, they've beaten just two tourney teams and have a NET SOS of 292. They have 6 or 7 resume games left on their schedule, including the WCC tournament, so their best case scenario is a 33-1 record, 150ish SOS, 5 Q1 wins & 5 Q2 wins. 

We only have one year of NET selection data, and last year the worst SOS in the at-large field was 26-6 Belmont's #154. That team had 2 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, and 3 losses outside Q1. Obviously this year's Zags are far superior, but can they improve their resume enough for a chance at a #1 seed?

The closest resume comparisons are actually three recent Gonzaga teams.
2013: 30-2, #6RPI, #75SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
2015: 31-2, #8RPI, #72SOS, 5 "Q1" & 4 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 2-seed
2017: 32-1, #8RPI,  #78SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
My opinion is the Bulldogs best case resume for 2020 is worse than any of the above, and has a ceiling of a 2-seed.
Projected 2020: 33-1, [#21RPI], #10NET, #150SOS, 5 Q1 & 5 Q2 wins, no bad losses.

Given their current mid-season SOS of 292, I can't even justify a top-3 seed.

1 seeds: Butler, West Virginia, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds: Auburn, San Diego State, Kansas, Oregon
3 seeds: Maryland, Wichita State, Florida State, Michigan State
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Villanova, Dayton
5 seeds: Louisville, Creighton, Colorado, Indiana
6 seeds: Stanford, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas
7 seeds: Kentucky, Penn State, Memphis, Michigan
8 seeds: Rutgers, USC, LSU, Iowa
9 seeds: Wisconsin, BYU, Illinois, Saint Louis
10 seeds: Liberty, Xavier, Arizona, Virginia Tech
11 seeds: Marquette, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Miami (FL)
12 seeds: Purdue, Texas Tech, Akron, Duquesne, Western Carolina
13 seeds: Georgia State, William & Mary, Colgate, Stony Brook
14 seeds: Montana, New Mexico State, Wright State, Nicholls
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Charlotte, Winthrop, Murray State
16 seeds: Quinnipiac, UC Riverside, Princeton, Gambling State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State

First four out: Saint Mary's, Oregon State, Utah, Minnesota
Next four out: VCU, Richmond, Oklahoma State, Houston

December 30, 2019 - Early season bracket

I hesitate to publish a bracket with significant deviations from most other bracketologists, but hopefully a quick explanation of my method will make sense. As preparation for Selection Sunday, I don't do any forward-looking projection for how teams will perform after today. My bracket is always based on "if selection occurred today". With that said, you'll see some noteable absences, which I'll try to address below.

More specifically, my method uses a regression formula based on prior years' seeding to initially rank teams based on the most significant resume metrics. I then apply some high-level subjective shuffling to arrive at my final list. Due to time constraints, I generally do not apply the nuanced seeding rules until my final bracket, so I only list the projected seed without predicting specific matchups.

One final note- the new NET ranking system is just in it's second year of use, so there isn't yet much historical precedent for how to interpret past seeding. While the RPI and NET numbers seemed to converge toward the end of the season last year (especially for at-large teams), the differences tend to be more drastic earlier in the season. This contributes to my early-season predictions not lining up with more traditional forward-looking brackets.

1 seeds: West Virginia, Kansas, Sam Diego State, Butler
2 seeds: Duke, Auburn, Maryland, Ohio State
3 seeds: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Gonzaga
4 seeds: Louisville, Wichita State, Michigan, Dayton
5 seeds: Memphis, Penn State, Iowa, Villanova
6 seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Colorado, Arkansas
7 seeds: Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Indiana
8 seeds: Stanford, Xavier, Marquette, Arizona
9 seeds: Oklahoma, BYU, Washington, Virginia
10 seeds: Saint Mary's, Seton Hall, NC State, Liberty
11 seeds: DePaul, USC, Temple, Rutgers
12 seeds: Miami FL, Arizona State, Utah State, Saint John's, George Mason, Yale
13 seeds: East TN State, SF Austin, Kent State, Vermont
14 seeds: Eastern Washington, Louisiana Tech, Wright State, Arkansas State
15 seeds: Saint Francis (PA), Rider, Delaware, Belmont
16 seeds: Lafayette, UCSB, ND State, Campbell, Copping State, Alabama A&M

First four out: Saint Louis, Houston, Minnesota, Florida
Next four out: Utah, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Tennessee

March 17, 2019 - Final Bracket

Final Bracket


1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Michigan State
2 seeds: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan
3 seeds: Houston, Florida State, LSU, Texas Tech
4 seeds: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech
5 seeds: Kansas State, Villanova, Marquette, Auburn
6 seeds: Mississippi State, Maryland, Iowa State, Cincinnati
7 seeds: Buffalo, Wofford, Nevada, UCF
8 seeds: Iowa, Louisville, Utah State, Seton Hall
9 seeds: Minnesota, Washington, Oklahoma, Ole Miss
10 seeds: VCU, Syracuse, Baylor, TCU
11 seeds: Saint John's, Arizona State, Temple, Florida, Ohio State, Oregon
12 seeds: Saint Mary's College, Murray State, New Mexico State, UC Irvine
13 seeds: Liberty, Saint Louis, Yale, Northeastern
14 seeds: Vermont, Old Dominion, Georgia State, Montana
15 seeds: Abilene Christian, Northern Kentucky, Colgate, Bradley
16 seeds: Gardner-Webb, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, North Dakota State, Iona, North Carolina Central

First four out: North Carolina State, Clemson, UNCG, Belmont
Next four out: Georgetown, Lipscomb, Furman, Creighton

March 15, 2019

This will likely be my last post before selection Sunday.

1 seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky
2 seeds: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Michigan
3 seeds: Houston, LSU, Kansas, Purdue
4 seeds: Texas Tech, Florida State, Kansas State, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Villanova
6 seeds: Auburn, Wofford, Maryland, Buffalo
7 seeds: Nevada, Cincinnati, UCF, Iowa State
8 seeds: Iowa, Washington, Louisville, VCU
9 seeds: Utah State, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Oklahoma
10 seeds: Saint John's, Ole Miss, North Carolina State, Baylor
11 seeds: Syracuse, Ohio State, Saint Mary's College, Temple
12 seeds: TCU, Clemson, Arizona State, Florida, Murray State, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Vermont, Northeastern
14 seeds: Yale, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Georgia State
15 seeds: Montana, Colgate, Abilene Christian, Gardner-Webb
16 seeds: Bradley, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, Prairie View A&M, North Dakota State, Norfolk State

First four out: Alabama, UNC Greensboro, Creighton, Belmont
Next four out: Furman, Lipscomb, Davidson,  Memphis

March 14, 2019

1 seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke
2 seeds: Gonzaga, Tennessee, Michigan, Michigan State
3 seeds: Texas Tech, LSU, Houston, Kansas
4 seeds: Purdue, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Kansas State, Marquette, Mississippi State, Maryland
6 seeds: Villanova, Wofford, Buffalo, Nevada
7 seeds: Cincinnati, Auburn, UCF, Louisville
8 seeds: Iowa State, Washington, Iowa, Oklahoma
9 seeds: Ole Miss, VCU, Baylor, Utah State
10 seeds: North Carolina State, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Saint John's
11 seeds: Syracuse, TCU, Arizona State, Saint Mary's College
12 seeds: Clemson, Temple, Ohio State, Creighton, Murray State, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, UC Irvine, Northeastern
14 seeds: Yale, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Montana
15 seeds: Georgia State, Colgate, Gardner-Webb, Sam Houston State
16 seeds: Bradley, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, Prairie View A&M, North Dakota State, Norfolk State

First four out: Florida, Alabama, Furman, Belmont
Next four out: Indiana, UNC Greensboro, Lipscomb, Georgetown

March 12, 2019

Preliminary bracket - my goal is to update this at least once more before going final Sunday afternoon. There are a lot of bubble teams in action over the next 2 days.

1 seeds: Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Kentucky

2 seeds: Duke, Tennessee, Michigan, Michigan State

3 seeds: Houston, Texas Tech, LSU, Kansas

4 seeds: Purdue, Marquette, Wisconsin, Florida State

5 seeds: Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Villanova

6 seeds: Maryland, Buffalo, Nevada, Auburn

7 seeds: Cincinnati, Wofford, UCF, Iowa State

8 seeds: Iowa, Louisville, Washington, Oklahoma

9 seeds: VCU, Ole Miss, Baylor, Utah State

10 seeds: North Carolina State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Saint John's

11 seeds: Syracuse, Temple, TCU, Arizona State

12 seeds: Clemson, Ohio State, Saint Mary's, Belmont, Murray State, New Mexico State

13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Hofstra, Vermont

14 seeds: Yale, Old Dominion, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky

15 seeds: Montana, Georgia State, Colgate, Gardner-Webb

16 seeds: Sam Houston State, Bradley, Iona, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, Norfolk State