March 15, 2020 - Final Bracket

Just a couple weeks ago, I couldn't have imagined I'd spend my Selection Sunday tracking and analyzing COVID-19 data rather than NCAA resume data. Rather than being immersed in the Big Ten championship game and Selection show, I spent my afternoon following updates on emergency shutdown measures and making contingency plans for the upcoming days and weeks.

Following the announcement of tournament cancellation, there were hopes the committee would still release their bracket, however a decision was rightly made that more important matters needed those individuals' urgent attention. We'll never know how accurate these predictions are, but for the sake of posterity, here is my final bracket.

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Creighton, Villanova, Duke, San Diego State
3 seeds: Maryland, Michigan State, Florida State, Louisville
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Oregon, Kentucky, Butler
5 seeds: Auburn, West Virginia, Ohio State, Arizona
6 seeds: BYU, Wisconsin, Houston, Michigan
7 seeds: LSU, Colorado, Iowa, Penn State
8 seeds: Illinois, Marquette, Florida, Virginia
9 seeds: Saint Mary's College, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Providence
10 seeds: Richmond, Wichita State, East Tennessee State, Utah State
11 seeds: USC, Oklahoma, Stanford, Arizona State, Xavier
12 seeds: Arkansas, Indiana, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Yale
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Belmont, Bradley, Northern Colorado, Hofstra
15 seeds: Texas State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Winthrop
16 seeds: Siena, Northern Kentucky, Boston University, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central

First four out: Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Saint Louis, North Carolina State
Next four out: Cincinnati, Purdue, Texas, Memphis

February 28, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: San Diego State, Florida State, Creighton, Maryland
3 seeds: Villanova, Seton Hall, Duke, Oregon
4 seeds: Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan State, Butler 
5 seeds: Penn State, Colorado, West Virginia, Auburn
6 seeds: Ohio State, Marquette, Arizona, BYU
7 seeds: Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Houston
8 seeds: LSU, Texas Tech, Saint Mary's, Florida
9 seeds: Illinois, Arizona State, Xavier, USC
10 seeds: Rutgers, Stanford, Rhode Island, Indiana
11 seeds: East Tennessee State, Utah State, Wichita State, Virginia, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Providence, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, North Texas, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Belmont, Bowling Green, Wright State, Colgate
15 seeds: UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Hofstra, Eastern Washington
16 seeds: Little Rock, Radford, Saint Francis (PA), Siena, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T

First four out: Cincinnati, Richmond, Mississippi State, North Carolina State
Next four out: Purdue, Georgetown, Memphis, Alabama

February 24, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: San Diego State, Creighton, Maryland, Villanova
3 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Florida State, Seton Hall
4 seeds: Oregon, Butler, West Virginia, Colorado
5 seeds: Auburn, Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan State
6 seeds: Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, BYU
7 seeds: Iowa, Marquette, Wisconsin, LSU
8 seeds: Texas Tech, Houston, Saint Mary's, Arizona State
9 seeds: Illinois, Florida, Rutgers, Wichita State
10 seeds: Rhode Island, Xavier, Indiana, Utah State
11 seeds: USC, Virginia, East Tennessee State, Providence, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Stanford, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Akron, Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, North Texas
14 seeds: Belmont, Colgate, New Mexico State, Hofstra
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Wright State, UC Irvine, Montana
16 seeds: Little Rock, Radford, Saint Francis (PA), Prairie View A&M, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State

First four out: Richmond, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Minnesota
Next four out: Purdue, Georgetown, Memphis, Mississippi State

February 19, 2020

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Maryland, Duke, Creighton, Dayton
3 seeds: Villanova, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Florida State
4 seeds: Colorado, Louisville, Butler, Auburn
5 seeds: Oregon, Arizona, Michigan State, Penn State
6 seeds: Kentucky, Marquette, Iowa, Ohio State
7 seeds: Houston, BYU, Michigan, Wisconsin
8 seeds: Illinois, LSU, Texas Tech, Rutgers
9 seeds: Xavier, Rhode Island, Saint Mary's, Florida
10 seeds: Georgetown, Arizona State, Wichita State, USC
11 seeds: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Purdue, 
12 seeds: Virginia, Utah State, Indiana, Cincinnati, Yale, Vermont
13 seeds: Akron, Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, Colgate
14 seeds: Wright State, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Hofstra
15 seeds: UC Irvine, Montana, Murray State, Little Rock
16 seeds: Winthrop, North Florida, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State

First four out: Richmond, Stanford, Alabama, Arkansas
Next four out: Minnesota, Mississippi State, North Carolina State, Prividence

February 13, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Maryland, Duke, Dayton, Louisville
3 seeds: Butler, Auburn, Seton Hall, West Virginia
4 seeds: Villanova, Creighton, Penn State, Colorado
5 seeds: Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, Marquette
6 seeds: Iowa, Kentucky, Ohio State, Arizona
7 seeds: LSU, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU
8 seeds: Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, USC
9 seeds: Oklahoma, Rutgers, Purdue, Rhode Island
10 seeds: Xavier, Saint Mary's, Florida, Stanford
11 seeds: Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Wichita State, Arkansas, Indiana
12 seeds: Arizona State, Minnesota, East Tennessee State, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, Colgate
14 seeds: New Mexico State, Wright State, Little Rock, Winthrop
15 seeds: Bowling Green, North Dakota State, Murray State, Hofstra
16 seeds: Montana, UC Irvine, Rider, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central

First four out: VCU, Utah, Utah State, Virginia
Next four out: North Carolina State, Providence, Memphis, Cincinnati

February 6, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: West Virginia, Maryland, Butler, Seton Hall
3 seeds: Dayton, Duke, Florida State, Louisville
4 seeds: Villanova, Auburn, Oregon, Creighton
5 seeds: Penn State, Michigan State, Colorado, Marquette
6 seeds: Ohio State, LSU, Kentucky, Iowa
7 seeds: Arizona, Illinois, Rutgers, USC
8 seeds: Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Houston
9 seeds: Arkansas, Stanford, Saint Mary's College, Xavier
10 seeds: BYU, Wichita State, Rhode Island, Purdue
11 seeds: Memphis, Georgetown, Indiana, Florida, Minnesota, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Yale, Tulsa
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech
14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Winthrop, Wright State
15 seeds: Bowling Green, Little Rock, Eastern Washington, North Dakota State
16 seeds: UC Irvine, Hofstra, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T

First four out: VCU, Mississippi State, Virginia, Texas
Next four out: Providence, Richmond, Arizona State, Cincinnati

January 24, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Dayton, Duke, Seton Hall, Gonzaga

3 seeds: Louisville, Butler, Oregon, Florida State

4 seeds: Villanova, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa

5 seeds: Colorado, Creighton, Auburn, Wisconsin

6 seeds: Rutgers, Penn State, Marquette, Kentucky

7 seeds: Arizona, Ohio State, LSU, Stanford

8 seeds: Arkansas, Houston, Indiana, Michigan

9 seeds: USC, Illinois, North Carolina State, Oklahoma

10 seeds: BYU, Wichita State, Memphis, Minnesota

11 seeds: Florida, Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's College, Texas Tech, Georgetown

12 seeds: Tennessee, Xavier, East Tennessee State, Liberty, Akron

13 seeds: Yale, Stephen F Austin, North Texas, Vermont

14 seeds: Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary, Loyola-Chicago

15 seeds: Montana, Wright State, Little Rock, Winthrop

16 seeds: South Dakota State, Murray State, Hawaii, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: DePaul, Richmond, Purdue, Rhode Island

Next four out: VCU, Alabama, Utah, Georgia

January 23, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Seton Hall, Duke, Dayton, Louisville

3 seeds: Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan State, Oregon

4 seeds: Florida State, Villanova, Maryland, Iowa

5 seeds: Auburn, Creighton, Colorado, Wisconsin

6 seeds: Penn State, Ohio State, Kentucky, Marquette

7 seeds: Rutgers, Arizona, LSU, Stanford

8 seeds: USC, Illinois, Houston, Arkansas

9 seeds: Wichita State, North Carolina State, Michigan, Oklahoma

10 seeds: Indiana, Memphis, Virginia Tech, BYU

11 seeds: Liberty, Florida, Texas Tech, Saint Mary's College, Georgetown

12 seeds: Minnesota, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Akron

13 seeds: Yale, Tulsa, Stephen F Austin, Vermont

14 seeds: Western Kentucky, Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary

15 seeds: Montana, Wright State, Little Rock, South Dakota State

16 seeds: Winthrop, Hawaii, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: Xavier, Richmond, Rhode Island, VCU

Next four out: DePaul, Purdue, Alabama, Washington

January 21, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Seton Hall, Dayton

3 seeds: Gonzaga, Michigan State, Butler, Florida State

4 seeds: Oregon, Maryland, Villanova, Auburn

5 seeds: Colorado, Rutgers, Creighton, Iowa

6 seeds: Wisconsin, Penn State, Marquette, Ohio State

7 seeds: Arizona, LSU, Kentucky, USC

8 seeds: Memphis, Stanford, Wichita State, Arkansas

9 seeds: Michigan, North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Illinois

10 seeds: Virginia Tech, Indiana, Northern Iowa, Houston

11 seeds: Florida, BYU, DePaul, Saint Mary's College

12 seeds: Texas Tech, Minnesota, Purdue, Richmond, Liberty, East Tennessee State

13 seeds: Yale, Akron, Stephen F Austin, North Texas

14 seeds: Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary, Montana

15 seeds: Stony Brook, Wright State, UV Irvine, Little Rock

16 seeds: Winthrop, North Dakota State, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: Saint Louis, Tennessee, Georgetown, Arizona State

Next four out: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Virginia

January 17, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Butler

2 seeds: Duke, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Auburn

3 seeds: Florida State, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Oregon

4 seeds: Maryland, Dayton, Villanova, Louisville

5 seeds: Wichita State, Colorado, Wisconsin, Creighton

6 seeds: Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Arkansas

7 seeds: Iowa, Stanford, Rutgers, Memphis

8 seeds: Illinois, Arizona, Penn State, Indiana

9 seeds: Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, BYU

10 seeds: USC, Marquette, Houston, Liberty

11 seeds: Minnesota, Purdue, Xavier, Richmond. Texas Tech

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s College, Northern Iowa, Akron, East Tennessee State

13 seeds: Yale, Stephen F Austin, Louisiana Tech, Georgia State

14 seeds: William & Mary, New Mexico State, Montana, Colgate

15 seeds: Wright State, UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Murray State

16 seeds: Winthrop, Quinnipiac, Albany, Robert Morris, North Carolina A&T, Grambling State

First four out: Florida, Georgetown, North Carolina State, Tennessee

Next four out: Arizona State, Oregon State, Texas, Georgia

January 14, 2020

I want talk for just a moment about Gonzaga. They they are undoubtedly one of the elite programs in the country, and pass the 1-seed "eye-test" with flying colors. That being said, their resume has no recent precedent in terms of a team so good having a schedule so awful. To date, they've beaten just two tourney teams and have a NET SOS of 292. They have 6 or 7 resume games left on their schedule, including the WCC tournament, so their best case scenario is a 33-1 record, 150ish SOS, 5 Q1 wins & 5 Q2 wins. 

We only have one year of NET selection data, and last year the worst SOS in the at-large field was 26-6 Belmont's #154. That team had 2 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, and 3 losses outside Q1. Obviously this year's Zags are far superior, but can they improve their resume enough for a chance at a #1 seed?

The closest resume comparisons are actually three recent Gonzaga teams.
2013: 30-2, #6RPI, #75SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
2015: 31-2, #8RPI, #72SOS, 5 "Q1" & 4 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 2-seed
2017: 32-1, #8RPI,  #78SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
My opinion is the Bulldogs best case resume for 2020 is worse than any of the above, and has a ceiling of a 2-seed.
Projected 2020: 33-1, [#21RPI], #10NET, #150SOS, 5 Q1 & 5 Q2 wins, no bad losses.

Given their current mid-season SOS of 292, I can't even justify a top-3 seed.

1 seeds: Butler, West Virginia, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds: Auburn, San Diego State, Kansas, Oregon
3 seeds: Maryland, Wichita State, Florida State, Michigan State
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Villanova, Dayton
5 seeds: Louisville, Creighton, Colorado, Indiana
6 seeds: Stanford, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas
7 seeds: Kentucky, Penn State, Memphis, Michigan
8 seeds: Rutgers, USC, LSU, Iowa
9 seeds: Wisconsin, BYU, Illinois, Saint Louis
10 seeds: Liberty, Xavier, Arizona, Virginia Tech
11 seeds: Marquette, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Miami (FL)
12 seeds: Purdue, Texas Tech, Akron, Duquesne, Western Carolina
13 seeds: Georgia State, William & Mary, Colgate, Stony Brook
14 seeds: Montana, New Mexico State, Wright State, Nicholls
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Charlotte, Winthrop, Murray State
16 seeds: Quinnipiac, UC Riverside, Princeton, Gambling State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State

First four out: Saint Mary's, Oregon State, Utah, Minnesota
Next four out: VCU, Richmond, Oklahoma State, Houston