S-Curve comparison

After revealing the bracket on Sunday, the committee published its 1-68 S-Curve rankings of the teams in the field.  I managed to slot exactly 25% of the field on the correct S-Curve line, and 49 teams within three spots.

Team	Drew	NCAA	Var		Variance	Teams
Villanova	1	1	0		0	17
Kansas	2	2	0		1	14
North Carolina	5	3	-2		2	8
Gonzaga	3	4	1		3	10
Kentucky	7	5	-2		4	7
Arizona	6	6	0		5	6
Duke	4	7	3		6	1
Louisville	8	8	0		7	1
Oregon	11	9	-2		8	1
Florida State	10	10	0		9	1
UCLA	15	11	-4		10	2
Baylor	9	12	3
Butler	13	13	0
Florida	12	14	2
West Virginia	19	15	-4
Purdue	18	16	-2
Virginia	16	17	1
Minnesota	17	18	1
Notre Dame	14	19	5
Iowa State	20	20	0
SMU	22	21	-1
Cincinnati	23	22	-1
Maryland	27	23	-4
Creighton	26	24	-2
Saint Marys College	25	25	0
South Carolina	33	26	-7
Michigan	24	27	3
Dayton	34	28	-6
Wisconsin	21	29	8
Miami (FL)	29	30	1
Arkansas	28	31	3
Northwestern	31	32	1
Vanderbilt	43	33	-10
Seton Hall	36	34	-2
Michigan State	40	35	-5
Virginia Tech	32	36	4
Oklahoma State	37	37	0
Wichita State	38	38	0
Marquette	39	39	0
Virginia Commonwealth	30	40	10
Xavier	41	41	0
Providence	45	42	-3
Wake Forest	42	43	1
Rhode Island	35	44	9
USC	44	45	1
Kansas State	46	46	0
Nevada	48	47	-1
Middle Tennessee	47	48	1
UNC Wilmington	49	49	0
Princeton	53	50	-3
Bucknell	55	51	-4
East Tennessee State	51	52	1
Vermont	50	53	3
Winthrop	54	54	0
New Mexico State	52	55	3
Florida Gulf Coast	56	56	0
Kent State	62	57	-5
Iona	58	58	0
Northern Kentucky	57	59	2
Troy	65	60	-5
Jacksonville State	66	61	-5
North Dakota	59	62	3
Texas Southern	60	63	3
South Dakota State	68	64	-4
UC Davis	64	65	1
North Carolina Central	61	66	5
New Orleans	63	67	4
Mount Saint Marys	67	68	1

Committee's Bracket Revealed

True Seed - Team - My Seed - Paymon Points
1 - Villanova - 1 - 6
1 - Kansas - 1 - 6
1 - North Carolina - 2 - 4
1 - Gonzaga - 1 - 6
2 - Duke - 1 - 4
2 - Louisville - 2 - 6
2 - Kentucky - 2 - 6
2 - Arizona - 2 - 6
3 - Baylor - 3 - 6
3 - Oregon - 3 - 6
3 - UCLA - 4 - 4
3 - Florida State - 3 - 6
4 - Florida - 3 - 4
4 - Purdue - 5 - 4
4 - Butler - 4 - 6
4 - West Virginia - 5 - 4
5 - Virginia - 4 - 4
5 - Iowa State- 5 - 6
5 - Minnesota - 5 - 6
5 - Notre Dame - 4 - 4
6 - SMU - 6 - 6
6 - Creighton - 7 - 4
6 - Cincinnati - 6 - 6
6 - Maryland - 7 - 4
7 - South Carolina - 9 - 3
7 - Michigan - 6 - 4
7 - Dayton - 9 - 3
7 - Saint Mary's - 7 - 6
8 - Wisconsin - 6 - 3
8 - Miami - 8 - 6
8 - Arkansas - 7 - 4
8 - Northwestern - 8 - 6
9 - Virginia Tech - 8 - 4
9 - Michigan State - 10 - 4
9 - Seton Hall - 9 - 6
9 - Vanderbilt - 11 - 3
10 - Marquette - 10 - 6
10 - Oklahoma State - 10 - 6
10 - Wichita State - 10 - 6
10 - VCU - 8 - 3
11 - Rhode Island - 9 - 3
11 - Xavier - 11 - 6
11 - Providence - 11 - 6
11 - USC - 11 - 6
11 - Kansas State - 11 - 6
11 - Wake Forest - 11 - 6
12 - UNC Wilmington - 12 - 6
12 - Nevada - 12 - 6
12 - Middle Tennessee - 12 - 6
12 - Princeton - 13 - 4
13 - East Tennessee State - 13 - 6
13 - Vermont - 12 - 4
13 - Winthrop - 13 - 6
13 - Bucknell - 14 - 4
14 - New Mexico State - 13 - 4
14 - Iona - 14 - 6
14 - Kent State - 15 - 4
14 - Florida Gulf Coast - 14 - 6
15 - Troy - 16 - 4
15 - Jacksonville State - 15 - 6
15 - Northern Kentucky - 14 - 4
15 - North Dakota - 15 - 6
16 - Texas Southern - 15 - 4
16 - South Dakota State - 16 - 6
16 - Mount Saint Mary's - 16 - 6
16 - New Orleans - 16 - 6
16 - NC Central - 15 - 4
16 - UC Davis - 16 - 6

Total Paymon Points: 344
East: 10*6, 6*4, 2*3 = 90
Midwest: 10*6, 6*4, 1*3 = 87
South: 10*6, 6*4, 1*3 = 87
West: 9*6, 5*4, 2*3 = 80

March 12, 2017 - Final Bracket

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke

2's: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, Notre Dame, UCLA, Virginia

5's: Minnesota, Purdue, West Virginia, Iowa State
6's: Wisconsin, SMU, Cincinnati, Michigan

7's: Saint Mary's, Creighton, Maryland, Arkansas

8's: Miami (FL), VCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech

9's: South Carolina, Dayton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall

10's: Oklahoma State, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State

11's: Xavier, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, USC, Providence, Kansas State

12's: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont

13's: East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Princeton, Winthrop

14's: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Northern Kentucky, Iona

15's: North Dakota, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, Kent State

16's: New Orleans, UC Davis, Troy, Jacksonville State, Mount Saint Mary's, South Dakota State

March 12, 2017 - penultimate update

With three games still underway, here is my update as of about 2:00 pm CST.  I believe the field is set, as none of the remaining outcomes will impact who gets in, only seeding.  I may still shuffle some of these seedings in the next couple hours based on further review and bracketing procedures

This bracket assumes:
-Wisconsin wins Big10.  If Michigan wins, WI falls to 5-line (Cincy or UVA moves up to 4, depending on AAC outcome) and Michigan rises to 6-line moving St Mary's to the #7.
-Cincinnati wins AAC.  If SMU wins, Cincy and SMU both move to #6 line with WVU moving up to #5 and St. Mary's falls to #7
-Troy wins Sun Belt.  If Texas State wins, they would still be a 16-seed play-in.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke
2's: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, UCLA, Notre Dame, Wisconsin

5's: Cincinnati, Virginia, Minnesota, Purdue
6's: West Virginia, Iowa State, Creighton, Saint Mary's

7's: SMU, Maryland, Michigan, Arkansas

8's: Miami (FL), VCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech

9's: Dayton, South Carolina, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State

10's: Rhode Island, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State

11's: Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Providence, Kansas State, Vanderbilt

12's: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont

13's: East Tennessee State, Princeton, New Mexico State, Winthrop

14's: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Northern Kentucky, Iona

15's: North Dakota, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central, Kent State

16's: New Orleans, UC Davis, Troy, Jacksonville State, Mount Saint Mary's, South Dakota State

FFO: California, Illinois, Syracuse, Iowa

NFO: Illinois State, Colorado State, Georgia, Utah

March 11, 2017 - midday update

This is a midday update, as of approximately 1:00 pm CST.  I'll post another update this evening, and another early tomorrow morning before my final bracket around 4:00 pm tomorrow.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona
3's: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Florida
4's: Butler, UCLA, Notre Dame, Virginia

5's: Minnesota, Purdue, West Virginia, Creighton
6's: Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, Wisconsin, Iowa State

7's: Maryland, SMU, Michigan, Virginia Tech

8's: Northwestern, VCU, Arkansas, Miami (FL)

9's: Dayton, South Carolina, USC, Seton Hall

10's: Oklahoma State, Wichita State, Marquette, Michigan State

11's: Wake Forest, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, Providence, Kansas State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont

13's: East Tennessee State, UTA, Princeton, Belmont

14's: Winthrop, Bucknell, Akron, Cal State Bakersfield

15's: Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky, Texas Southern

16's: UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's, North Carolina Central, New Orleans, Jacksonville State, South Dakota State

FFO: California, Syracuse, Illinois, Iowa

NFO: Georgia, Illinois State. Ole Miss, Colorado State

Quick note on Syracuse

I'm enjoying the last day of my Colorado vacation, watching Championship Week and anxious to get home and post an updated bracket.

As of last night, 107 of 135 brackets included Syracuse in the field. Here's why I believe their odds of selection are in the low single digits.  The lowest RPI included in the at-large field is usually between 65-70. Before last year, the worst ever selected was 71. Last year, the Orange broke that record by being selected with the #74 RPI. Yesterday's lOSS to Miami dropped Syracuse to the #84 RPI. Despite several impressive wins late in the season and a weaker than normal bubble, I don't believe the committee will consider a team with such a low RPI for an at-large bid.

Check back Saturday morning for an updated bracket.

March 2, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Baylor, Kentucky, Oregon, Butler
3's: Florida, Louisville, Duke, Florida State
4's: Arizona, UCLA, Purdue, Minnesota

5's: Notre Dame, Creighton, Virginia, Cincinnati
6's: Saint Mary's, Maryland, West Virginia, Wisconsin

7's: South Carolina, Iowa State, Dayton, SMU

8's: Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Northwestern, Oklahoma State

9's: Michigan, Arkansas, VCU, Michigan State

10's: Marquette, USC, Xavier, Seton Hall

11's: Illinois, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Kansas State, Wichita State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UTA

13's: Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Monmouth, Vermont

14's: Belmont, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee State

15's: Bucknell, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, Eastern Washington

16's: South Dakota, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, UC Irvine

FFO: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island, California

NFO: Iowa, TCU, Georgia, Ole Miss

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:

(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, 3+ Top-100 wins)

9. Houston

10. Alabama

11. Texas A&M

12. Texas Tech

13. Boise State

14. BYU

15. Charleston

16. Colorado State

17. Colorado

18. Auburn

19. UCF

20. Memphis

21. Fresno State

22. New Mexico

23. San Diego State

24. William & Mary

March 1, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky, Oregon
3's: Butler, Florida, Arizona, Duke
4's: Florida State, UCLA, Purdue, Minnesota

5's: Notre Dame, Creighton, Virginia, Cincinnati
6's: Saint Mary's, Maryland, Wisconsin, West Virginia

7's: SMU, Iowa State, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)

8's: South Carolina, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Michigan

9's: VCU, Xavier, Michigan State, Arkansas

10's: Northwestern, USC, Seton Hall, Marquette

11's: Providence, Illinois, Kansas State, Rhode Island, Ohio State, Wichita State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UTA

13's: New Mexico State, Monmouth, Vermont, Valparaiso

14's: Belmont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell

15's: Akron, UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota

16's: Eastern Washington, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, UC Irvine

FFO: Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, TCU

NFO: Georgia, California, Ole Miss, Iowa

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:

(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, 3+ Top-100 wins)

9. Texas Tech

10. Texas A&M

11. Houston

12. Boise State

13. Colorado State

14. Charleston

15. BYU

16. Fresno State

17. Alabama

18. Auburn

19. UCF

20. Colorado

21. Memphis

22. New Mexico

23. San Diego State

24. La Salle

25. William & Mary

February 28, 2017

Conference tournaments are now underway, and we have 32 of them this year with the Ivy's leagues inaugural 4-team bracket.  We'll get our first auto-bid on Saturday the 4th when the Ohio Valley conference crowns its champ.  Eleven more teams will earn their ticket between Sunday 3/5 and Wednesday 3/8, then the real fun begins with selection weekend.

Last night's games featured three 1-seed contenders in action.  Kansas took care of business to keep their spot on the top line, and Baylor knocked off West Virginia to inch closer to regaining a #1 seed.  The Tar Heels faltered against Virginia, who seems to have temporarily righted their ship.  I have UNC and Baylor neck and neck for the final #1 seed at this point.  Baylor has a tougher schedule, and slightly better SOL, however UNC retains the edge with one more victory, no losses outside the RPI top-100 and a slightly better SOW.  If Gonzaga fails to win the WCC tourney, both Baylor and UNC may end up with a #1 seed.

On the topic of Gonzaga's resume, they have a couple of very impressive early season neutral court wins over Florida and Arizona to go along with their gaudy 29-1 record, but that's really where the highlights end.  Their only other top-50 wins are against Iowa State and twice over Saint Mary's.  The only other team to earn a #1 seed with fewer than 6 wins was the undefeated 2014 Shockers.  Although, Gonzaga also earned a top-line bid in 2013 with a 30-2 record, #6 RPI, #75 SOS, and 6 top-50 wins.  That would more closely resemble their resume this year if they go on to win the WCC.  My prediction is that if they fail to win the WCC tourney, they'll be a #2 seed.

In Big Ten action tonight are four teams in tournament contention.  Indiana must beat Purdue to keep their at-large hopes alive, and to preserve Minnesota's chance at the regular season title. Ohio State is also facing at-large elimination, although in a more winnable game at Penn State.  Finally, Maryland looks to end its 3-game losing streak at Rutgers.


This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky, Oregon
3's: Butler, Florida State, Florida, Arizona
4's: Duke, UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue

5's: Notre Dame, Creighton, Cincinnati, Virginia
6's: Saint Mary's, Maryland, Wisconsin, West Virginia

7's: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, SMU, Miami (FL)

8's: Dayton, Arkansas, Iowa State, VCU

9's: Michigan, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Xavier

10's: USC, Northwestern, Marquette, Seton Hall

11's: Providence, Illinois, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, Wichita State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UTA

13's: New Mexico State, Monmouth, Vermont, Belmont

14's: Princeton, East Tennessee State, Valparaiso, Akron

15's: UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, South Dakota

16's: Eastern Washington, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, UC Irvine

FFO: Syracuse, Indiana, California, TCU

NFO: Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Ole Miss

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:

(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, 3+ Top-100 wins)

9. Iowa

10. Georgia

11. Texas Tech

12. Alabama

13. Texas A&M

14. Houston

15. Boise State

16. Charleston

17. Colorado State

18. BYU

19. Auburn

20. Colorado

21. Fresno State

22. Memphis

23. UCF

24. New Mexico

25. San Diego State

26. La Salle

27. William & Mary

February 27, 2017

The Gophers received as much help from their prior opponents over the weekend as they helped themselves with a win over Penn State.  Indiana and Iowa slid into the top-100 with their wins over Northwestern and Maryland - who both remained in the top-50. Meanwhile, Michigan wiggled into the top-50 with their victory over Purdue.  After all that, Minnesota now sits at 7 top-50 wins (T-7th), 13 top-100 wins (T-10th), and SOW of 106 (7th).  Add to that a #16 RPI and #16 SOS and you have a resume of a 4-seed.

Gophers updated Best-/Worst-case scenarios:
Best-case (win out, including Big10 tourney): A 28-7 record with a top-10 RPI and double digit top-50 wins would be at least a 3-seed and very likely a #2.
Worst-case (lose next three games): A 22-10 record with ~#25 RPI, 6-7 top-50 wins and no sub-100 losses should be no worse than an 8-seed, and more likely a #7.

In terms of Big Ten tournament selections, the last few days have been as productive as they possibly could have been.  Each of the last eight conference games has ended such that the number of Big Ten teams selected could be maximized.  None of the locked teams have beaten a bubble team, nor have the three "eliminated" teams upset a contender.  In fact, going back a full week, last Tuesday's Iowa's OT victory over Indiana was the last match-up between bubble contenders.  Looking forward, there is a long-shot scenario where the Big10 gets to 11 selections, but either Ohio State or Indiana would need to win the Big10 tourney as one will have 14 losses on selection Sunday.

Locked teams: Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland
Likely in: Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State
Needs work: Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa

Take a look and let me know where my one-in-a-million scenario is most likely to fall apart.

1. Illinois wins its remaining games against Michigan State & Rutgers to enter the Big10 tourney 18-12.
2. Iowa wins its remaining games against Wisconsin & Penn State to enter the tourney 18-13.
3. Indiana wins its remaining games against Purdue & Ohio State to enter the tourney 18-13.
4. Ohio State beats Penn State, enters the tourney 17-14 as the 12-seed and wins the tourney, securing an auto-bid.
5. 9-seeded Illinois beats #8 Northwestern and #1 Purdue before losing to #11 Ohio State in the semis.  They're 20-14 on selection Sunday and earn an at-large based on their 7-1 finish (4 over tourney teams)
6. 7-seeded Iowa defeats #10 Nebraska, #2 Wisconsin and #11 Indiana before losing to Ohio State in the finals.  They're 21-14 on selection Sunday and earn an at-large bid based on their own 7-1 finish (5 over tourney teams)
7. #11 Indiana beats #14 Rutgers, #6 Michigan and #3 Minnesota before losing to Iowa in the semis.  They earn an at-large bid at 21-14 with a boatload of quality wins.
8. Northwestern, Michigan and Michigan State would all have to retain their at-large status throughout this upheaval, defeating the higher-seeded "lock" teams along the way, meaning 11 Big Ten teams make the tournament.

Luckily there are very few at-large qualifiers from non-power conferences, so there are fewer opportunities for cinderellas to steal an at-large bid.  As long as either Cincinnati or SMU wins the AAC, Gonzaga or Saint Mary's wins the WCC, and Dayton or VCU wins the A10, then there should be a whopping 44 at-large bids available for the power conferences.


This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2's: Baylor, Louisville, Arizona, Oregon
3's: Florida, Florida State, Duke, Butler
4's: Kentucky, UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue

5's: Notre Dame, Creighton, West Virginia, Maryland
6's: Saint Mary's, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Virginia

7's: Miami (FL), South Carolina, SMU, Dayton

8's: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Northwestern

9's: Michigan, VCU, USC, Michigan State

10's: Xavier, Arkansas, Seton Hall, Marquette

11's: California, Rhode Island, Providence, Kansas State, Illinois, Wichita State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UTA

13's: New Mexico State, Monmouth, Vermont, Belmont

14's: Princeton, East Tennessee State, Valparaiso, Akron

15's: UNC Asheville, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, North Dakota State

16's: Eastern Washington, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, UC Irvine

FFO: Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Syracuse

NFO: Ole Miss, TCU, Georgia, Indiana

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:

(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, 3+ Top-100 wins)

9. Georgia Tech

10. Iowa

11. Texas Tech

12. Texas A&M

13. Boise State

14. Alabama

15. Houston

16. BYU

17. Auburn

18. Colorado

19. Memphis

20. Colorado State

21. Charleston

22. San Diego State

23. UCF

24. Fresno State

25. New Mexico

26. La Salle

27. William & Mary

February 24, 2017

Another tough loss for the Badgers last night knocks them down to a 6-seed.  That's a loss in 3 of the last 4 games for Wisconsin with games remaining at Michigan State and at home against the red hot Gophers.  Ohio State worked their way back into the bubble discussion, and with two winnable Big10 games left against Penn State and Indiana, they could easily finish the regular season 18-13.  They'd probably need two Big10 tourney wins to earn an at-large bid, but they could be an 8th (or 9th) Big Ten representative in the field.

The Big Ten has the night off tonight, with three big match ups tomorrow night.
-Purdue @ Michigan: not much at stake for Purdue, other than clinching a double-bye in the Big10 tourney.  For Michigan, stakes are a big higher.  A home loss would knock their RPI down close to 60 and may bump them near the Last Four In.  A win, however, would be a huge resume booster and could slide them up as high as an 8-seed.
-Northwestern @ Indiana: with Michigan and Purdue left on their schedule, Northwestern needs to avoid a loss against the Hoosiers to avoid slipping onto the bubble.  Indiana is just outside the RPI top-100, so a win for them would mean an extra top-100 win for some of their prior opponents and one fewer sub-100 loss for those they beat earlier in the season.
-Iowa @ Maryland: Maryland is safely in the tournament, but is heading in the wrong direction for a team many consider to be a title contender.  They really need to right the ship after two straight losses.  Iowa needs this win to keep their NIT hopes alive, and to help Minnesota climb another spot in the Big10 standings if they beat Penn State Sunday.

Looking forward to the Big Ten Tournament, here's a great site that lets you plug in different scenarios to see where teams will be bracketed in DC in a couple weeks.  There are 20 regular season games left in the Big10 and a lot of different ways the seeding can still go.  If there are no upsets in the remaining 20 games, the Gophers will finish 4th with a double bye and face the winner of Michigan State/12v13 winner.  Given the last two results against Sparty, I'd rather face Northwestern, Michigan, or even possibly Maryland.


This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's: Baylor, Louisville, Arizona, Oregon
3's: Florida, Duke, Florida State, Butler
4's: Kentucky, Purdue, UCLA, Cincinnati

5's: Minnesota, Creighton, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's
6's: Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin

7's: SMU, South Carolina, USC, Miami (FL)

8's: Xavier, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Northwestern

9's: Dayton, Arkansas, VCU, Iowa State

10's: Seton Hall, Michigan, Michigan State, Marquette

11's: Kansas State, California, TCU, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Wichita State

12's: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UTA

13's: New Mexico State, Monmouth, East Tennessee State, Valparaiso

14's: Princeton, Vermont, Belmont, Akron

15's: Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, UNC Asheville, North Dakota State

16's: Eastern Washington, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, New Orleans, Mount Saint Mary's, UC Irvine

FFO: Syracuse, Providence, Illinois, Georgia Tech

NFO: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Ole Miss, Georgia 

Others still in contention for At-Large bid:

(<14 losses, Top-150 SOS, 3+ Top-100 wins)

9. Alabama

10. Clemson

11. Pittsburgh

12. Tennessee

13. Indiana

14. Texas Tech

15. Iowa

16. Auburn

17. Boise State

18. Houston

19. BYU

20. Colorado State

21. Texas A&M

22. Stanford

23. Colorado

24. Charleston

25. New Mexico

26. Fresno State

27. San Diego State

28. Memphis

29. La Salle

30. Connecticut