February 27, 2015

The Gophers pulled off a huge overtime upset in Lansing last night, which will help tremendously in solidifying an NIT bid. They have a week off before hosting the Badgers on Thursday the 5th. A victory in that came could even put them back into the bubble discussion, but they'd still need a very deep run in the Big 10 tournament to have a realistic shot at an at-large selection. In the meantime, they can get some help via losses by the teams above them, and wins by Penn State, Northwestern, and Nebraska. If any of those three teams can crack the top-100 (they're currently 112, 114, & 124th), that would help Minnesota a bunch.

I'm beginning to work on a mathematical system to rate the AP pollsters. I would like to be able to definitively say which voters know what they're doing, and which are ranking teams via one of these methods. I'll continue to provide updates as I make progress.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: West Virginia, Louisville, Utah, Butler
5's: Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, SMU
6's: Georgetown, North Carolina, VCU, Wichita State
7's: Oklahoma State, Indiana, San Diego State, Ohio State
8's: Providence, North Carolina State, Saint John's, Colorado State
9's: Georgia, Tulsa, Dayton, Texas
10's: Iowa, Xavier, Oregon, Texas A&M
11's: Michigan State, Ole Miss, Illinois, Cincinnati, Temple
12's: Pittsburgh, Davidson, Wofford, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Eastern Washington, South Dakota State
15's: High Point, William & Mary, Georgia State, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Syracuse, Stanford, LSU, UCLA
NFO: Boise State, Purdue, Miami (FL), Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Connecticut, UTEP, Washington, George Washington
NNNFO: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Rhode Island, BYU

February 26, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia
4's: Notre Dame, Louisville, Notre Dame, Utah
5's: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, North Carolina, Butler
6's: Georgetown, SMU, VCU, Wichita State
7's: Indiana, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, Tulsa, North Carolina State
9's: Providence, Xavier, Saint John's, Iowa
10's: Michigan State, Oregon, Georgia, Texas A&M
11's: Texas, Cincinnati, Temple, Illinois, Ole Miss
12's: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Old Dominion
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Harvard, Murray State
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Eastern Washington, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, North Carolina Central
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, LSU, UCLA, Boise State
NFO: Miami (FL), Richmond, Purdue, Stanford

February 25, 2015

Today I'm going to have myself a little rant about the sad state of the current polling system. I frequently talk to friends/coworkers/acquaintances about college basketball. All too often, well-informed and well-intentioned sports fans place far too much emphasis on poll rankings when referencing the strength of a team. I think the 4-letter network deserves a lot of blame for this, as they constantly perpetuate the myth that a team's poll ranking equates to their ability. They bump high-ranking matchups to primetime TV spots, and spend the vast majority of their time spouting about a select few historically good schools which draw a larger TV viewing audience (read: $$$), however all their talking-head rhetoric can't translate to quality performance on the court. I will qualify my frustration by saying that the discrepancies aren't quite as terrible at the top of the rankings, but I think that many of the voters simply get lazy once they get past #15, because there are some blatantly absurd voting patterns. Below are a couple of prime examples:

San Diego State ranked #24, Colorado State not a single vote. I don't disagree that the Aztecs are the better team, but the two teams are adjacent on the RPI list and I personally have them at #26 and #29, respectively, on my bracketology seed list. Their resumes are strikingly similar: Rams have one fewer loss, Aztecs have a slightly stronger schedule and one more quality win. Both teams have one bad loss, and their two meetings were split with the home team prevailing by single digits. The next example will further illustrate the absurdity of Colorado State having zero votes.

Murray State received 42 votes, ranked #28. A total of 16 voters had the Racers in their top-25 teams in the country. Let's take a quick peek at Murray State's resume: 22-4 record, #265 SOS, one top-100 win (December home game against #84 Illinois State...and they haven't played a top-135 team since). They have two losses outside the top-100, including to #268 Houston. I have the Racers at #78 on my bracketology seed list. Now, if one or two ignorant voters decided to slide Murray State a pity #25 vote based on their impressive record and they finished with one or two points, I would quickly scoff and move on. But they have 42 votes, which means that 65 individual "experts" voted them ahead of Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, Oregon, and about 50 other teams they shouldn't be ahead of, including Colorado State. I strongly believe that there needs to be a voter validation system, whereby voters' selections are tested by subsequent game results. Anomoly upsets will surely happen, but over a full season, we'll be able to easily tell who has their head up their ass [Dick Vitale] when they place Murray State #19 on their list. I would love to meet Dick Vitale today and ask him who he thought would win in a neutral-court matchup between Murray State and West Virginia. For christ's sake, the latter just throttled Oklahoma State in Stillwater by double digits and the former gave up 92 points in a 2-point victory over 10-16 #274 Southeast Missouri State.

If anyone is interested, below is the link to a site that shows the full voting results.
College Poll Tracker

...end rant.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia
4's: Oklahoma, Louisville, Notre Dame, Utah
5's: Butler, Northern Iowa, North Carolina, Arkansas
6's: VCU, Indiana, Georgetown, Wichita State
7's: SMU, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: Colorado State, Providence, North Carolina State, Saint John's
9's: Dayton, Tulsa, Oregon, Iowa
10's: Xavier, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Ole Miss
11's: Illinois, Temple, Texas, Georgia, Cincinnati
12's: Syracuse, Davidson, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Old Dominion
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Murray State
14's: Harvard, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: LSU, Pittsburgh, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: Stanford, Massachusetts, UCLA, Purdue

February 24, 2015 - Bracketology Post #100

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Baylor, Maryland, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Louisville, Utah
5's: Northern Iowa, VCU, Butler, North Carolina
6's: Georgetown, Arkansas, SMU, Indiana
7's: Wichita State, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Providence
8's: Colorado State, Ohio State, Saint John's, Texas
9's: Xavier, North Carolina State, Texas A&M, Michigan State
10's: Dayton, Tulsa, Oregon, Ole Miss
11's: Iowa, Illinois, Cincinnat, Temple, Georgia
12's: Pittsburgh, LSU, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Murray State, Iona
14's: Harvard, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, UCLA, Stanford, Boise State
NFO: Massachusetts, Wyoming, Purdue, Seton Hall

February 23, 2015 - NIT

This is my first attempt at an NIT bracket. The interest here is based on the Gophers' chances of having an opportunity to defend their title. Sadly, they're on the NIT bubble at this point, and need at least a couple more wins to solidify a chance at a selection.

As a reminder, teams who won their conference regular season, but failed to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament, are automatically qualified for the NIT. There are five of these teams in total, although right now I have Valpo safely in the NIT field, so really only the four 8-seeds are impacted. There will, however, be at least a few surprises come conference tournament time, as there have been at least 10 auto-bids for the NIT in each of the last four years. That said, the NIT bubble will likely move up to the 5- and 6-seeds, leaving Minnesota on the outside looking in.

1's: Stanford, Davidson, Boise State, Miami (FL)
2's: Pittsburgh, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Rhode Island
3's: Wyoming, Purdue, Seton Hall, Alabama
4's: Connecticut, George Washington, BYU, UTEP
5's: Washington, Tennessee, Florida, Valparaiso
6's: Central Michigan, Saint Mary's College, Richmond, Clemson
7's: Arizona State, Oregon State, Minnesota, Michigan
8's: Kent State, Louisiana Tech, Albany, Georgia Southern

FFO: Toledo, California, Yale, Memphis
NFO: Sam Houston State, Illinois State, La Salle, UNLV

February 23, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame
4's: Utah, Butler, Baylor, Iowa State
5's: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Georgetown
6's: Indiana, Arkansas, SMU, VCU
7's: Wichita State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: San Diego State, Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon
9's: Colorado State, North Carolina State, Iowa, Xavier
10's: Tulsa, Dayton, Saint John's, Illinois
11's: Texas A&M, Temple, Michigan State, Georgia, Cincinnati
12's: UCLA, LSU, Wofford, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Harvard, Murray State
14's: Iona, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Stanford, Davidson, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: Pittsburgh, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Rhode Island

February 19, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Utah, Notre Dame
4's: Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Louisville
5's: Northern Iowa, Butler, Arkansas, Indiana
6's: North Carolina, Georgetown, VCU, Wichita State
7's: SMU, Ohio STate, Oklahoma State, San Diego State
8's: Providence, Texas, Dayton, Colorado State, Illinois
9's: Saint John's, Temple, Xavier, Cincinnati
10's: Ole Miss, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Georgia
11's: Iowa, North Carolina State, Oregon, Wofford
12's: Davidson, UCLA, LSU, Boise State, Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Old Dominion, Harvard, Murray State, Iona
14's: Buffalo, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: High Point, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, American, New Mexico State, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Miami (FL), Tulsa, Massachusetts, Stanford
NFO: Syracuse, Alabama, Rhode Island, Wyoming

February 17, 2015

The Gophers' post-season hopes took a fairly sizable nose-dive over the long Presidents' Day weekend. Not only did they fail to make a close game of a road loss at Indiana, but each of the teams that could have helped their resume also lost.
-Georgia fell outside the top-25
-Iowa fell outside the top-50
-Western Kentucky fell outside the top-100
-Nebraska failed to crack the top-100, and fell further from it

With a 10th regular season loss, and now a 5-8 conference record, Minnesota has an increasingly narrow margin for error in regards to a potential tournament bid. It is unusual for a team to be selected with a losing conference record, although not impossible. A 4-1 finish to the regular season would all but clinch a selection, but is also unlikely, with two games remaining against Wisconsin, and a road game at Michigan State. The silver lining is that the difficulty of their remaining schedule will likely bump the Gophers into the low-50's SOS ranking, which could be a resume booster if they're still on the bubble come Selection Sunday. Below are a few updated scenarios that should garner the Gophers an at-large bid.
A 4-1 finish in Big 10 regular season play (loss at Madison). Even if bounced in the first round of the Big10 tournament, a 19-12 (9-10 B10) record with 4-5 top-50 wins would get them awfully close, depending on what a few other teams do. An opening round win in the conference tournament - 20-12 (10-10 B10) should clinch a bid.
A 3-2 finish in Big 10 regular season play (losses at Madison and Lansing). This scenario would likely require at least two wins in the Big10 tournament to get to a 21-13 (10-11 B10) record. Even that might not be enough, as 13 losses is typically a tipping point for tournament selection, unless it's paired with a top-10 SOS or an impressive number of quality wins.
A 2-3 finish in Big 10 regular season play (2 losses vs Badgers, 1 vs Spartans). in this scenario, the Gophers would need to win at least 3 conference tournament games, likely reaching the finals to solidify a selection.
A 1-4 finish in Big 10 regular season play. Regardless of the scenario here, the Gophers would be eliminated from at-large consideration, and would need to win the Big10 tournament to receive an automatic bid.

Games to watch tonight:
-Saint John's @ Georgetown - these teams are on opposite sides of the bubble, and although Georgetown needs it more, St. John's stands to gain more from a victory than the Hoyas. A Red Storm victory would also benefit the Gophers' SOS.
-South Carolina @ Georgia - a win here for the Bulldogs may push them back into the top-25, thereby giving the Gophers' resume a nice boost.
-Wake Forest @ Notre Dame - although quite unlikely, a victory by the Demon Deacons would not only help the Gophers' SOS, but would also bump their RPI within reaching distance of the top 100 (currently #129).
-Cleveland State @ Western Carolina - a late season non-conference matchup with minor SOS implications for the Gophers, rooting for the Catamounts in this one...I'll forgive those who don't recall which school this mascot belongs to.

Finally, a quick update on my 'Zaga-is-overrated' spiel from last week. As you'll notice below, a 5th loss for Kansas still leaves them well ahead of Gonzaga on the 2-line. The unfortnate reality for the Bulldogs is that they don't have any more resume builders on their remaining schedule, including the WCC tournament. They won't play another tournament team before Selection Sunday, so in all likelihood even if they win out they won't have a shot at a 1-seed unless at least four teams ahead of them each lose 2+ more games. For those that will make the '14 Wichita State comparison, I'll post a rebuttal in the very near future.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Louisville, Utah, Notre Dame
4's: Baylor, Butler, North Carolina, West Virginia
5's: Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Indiana, Oklahoma
6's: Arkansas, Wichita State, VCU, Oklahoma State
7's: Georgetown, Ohio State, San Diego State, SMU
8's: Providence, Temple, Colorado State, Illinois
9's: Cincinnati, Texas, Dayton, Saint John's
10's: Iowa, Georgia, Xavier, UCLA
11's: Ole Miss, Michigan State, North Carolina State, LSU, Texas A&M
12's: Wofford, Oregon, Massachusetts, Green Bay, Bowling Green
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Old Dominion, Harvard, Iona
14's: Murray State, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast, William & Mary
16's: North Carolina Central, Albany, American, New Mexico State, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Stanford, Miami (FL), George Washington, Boise State
NFO: Pittsburgh, BYU, Tulsa, Davidson

February 13, 2015

The Gophers pulled off a big win in Iowa City last night! It was a very close game for the first 30 minutes, until the Gophers pulled away with about 8 minutes to play. In an effort to make things interesting, Minnesota blew an 11 point lead with just over two minutes left, and allowed Iowa to climb within 2 points with 20 seconds left. Clutch free throw shooting sealed the five-point road victory.

Of the other six games last night with implications for the Gophers' resume, two ended favorably. This was the expected result, so no surprise or disappointment there. Based on the road win against a top-40 team, Minnesota's RPI jumped 20 spots to #68. Below are a few resume details to keep an eye on:
Georgia remaining in RPI top-25. The Bulldogs are currently #22, and it will be crucial down the stretch for Georgia to stay hot and remain in the top-25. Aside from Kentucky on March 3, their only real challenge will be @Ole Miss on Feb 27.
Iowa & Illinois remaining in RPI top-50. They are currently #42 and #44 respecitvely, and will greatly aid Minnesota by staying in the top-50. There are currently only 18 teams with more than three top-50 wins (all virtual locks for the Big Dance), so maintaining and adding wins in this category cannot be overstated.
Nebraska moving into RPI top-100. The Huskers are currently #106, and are the Gophers' only loss outside the top-100. If they can move up just 6 spots by March 15th, not only will the Gophers drop their only loss outside the top-100, they'll also add a top-100 win, which might in itself be enough to push them into the field. On Sunday, they'll have an even greater opportunity at Indiana. A win there would most certainly push Minnesota onto the inside of the bubble, with a 4th top-50 win, 6th conference win, and 4th consecutive win (6 of last 8).

It's a very quiet night in college basketball, and the Gophers have no season opponents in action. Below are a couple of non-Gophers-related games that might be interesting to watch tonight:
Arizona @ Washington - A loss for the Wildcats would likely cost them a seed-line, and would bump Washington back squarely into the bubble conversation.
Green Bay @ Valparaiso - Battle for Horizon League supremacy, the winner will be in the driver's seat for top conference tournament seed.

I'm not sure if I'll get a post up tomorrow morning, so if not, I want to give a heads up that 20 of the current top-25 teams in the AP poll are in action on Valentine's Day. The three biggest matchupes are:
Baylor @ Kansas - The Jayhawks will pad their already dominant SOS, and Baylor can move up to a 3-seed with a road win here.
West Virginia @ Iowa State - The cyclones have lost 2 of their last 3 and need to stop the bleeding, while the Mountaineers are entering an end-of-season gauntlet...their remaining games after Saturday are Kansas, @OK State, Texas, @Baylor, @Kansas, OK State. WVU has an opportunity to make a huge statement in the next three weeks!
Villanova @ Butler - Nova is precariously clinging to a #1 seed, and could really use another quality win to keep ahead of Duke & Wisconsin's resumes. Butler is on a roll, winning five straight, and this game might be their last chance to make a major statement before entering the Big East tournament.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Villanova
2's: Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, Utah
4's: Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Baylor, Butler
5's: Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Indiana
6's: VCU, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Wichita State
7's: Ohio State, SMU, Cincinnati, West Virginia
8's: Providence, San Diego State, Texas, Illinois
9's: Dayton, Colorado State, Iowa, Temple
10's: Ole Miss, Georgia, Oregon, Stanford
11's: Saint John's, Xavier, UCLA, Boise State, LSU
12's: Tulsa, Michigan State, Old Dominion, Green Bay, Wofford
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Bowling Green, Eastern Washington, Murray State
14's: Harvard, Iona, Georgia State, William & Mary
15's: High Point, North Carolina Central, Long Beach State, South Dakota State
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, Stony Brook, American, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Texas A&M, George Washington, Minnesota, Alabama
NFO: Seton Hall, Wyoming, Davidson, Syracuse

February 12, 2015

Virginia squeaked out a close one last night over NC State, and VCU lost a double OT thriller against La Salle.

Last night, four of six games went the Gophers' way, improving their post-season projections by a narrow margin. Tonight the Gophers have their greatest opportunity in a couple weeks to improve their own position for a late-season run. They had the Hawkeyes on the ropes when they played at the Barn a month ago, but a couple of clutch shots by Uthoff, a last second shot-clock malfunction, and a layup that was 0.2 seconds too late tiped the game in Iowa's favor. Aside from their own game, here are some other games tonight which have an impact on the Gophers.
-Purdue @ Rutgers - Although Minnesota is chasing Purdue in the standings, their win/loss total counts double due to an extra matchup against the Boilermakers.
-Western Carolina @ Mercer
-Montana @ North Dakota
-Seattle University @ New Mexico State
- @ VMI
-The Michigan @ illinois game will be a wash as Minnesota plays both teams once.

Of the five games, only one is favored in Minnesota's favor (Purdue). If we get one of the other four, I'd be a happy camper. It looks like it will be on the Gophers own shoulders to propel themselves towards the bubble tonight.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, Butler, Baylor, Utah
5's: Northern Iowa, Iowa State, VCU, Oklahoma State
6's: Arkansas, Indiana, Georgetown, Wichita State
7's: Ohio State, West Virginia, Iowa, SMU
8's: Colorado State, Cincinnati, Texas, Dayton
9's: Providence, San Diego State, Illinois, Temple
10's: Xavier, Ole Miss, Saint John's, Stanford
11's: LSU, Georgie, Oregon, Michigan State, Tulsa
12's: Old Dominion, Wofford, Texas A&M, UCLA, Green Bay
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Bowling Green, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, High Point, North Carolina Central, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Florida Gulf Coast, American, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Boise State, George Washington, Seton Hall, Wyoming
NFO: Alabama, Miami (FL), Massachusetts, North Carolina State

February 11, 2015

Close call for undefeated Kentucky last night, as they beat LSU by just two points. Their next few games should be a cakewalk, but the Wildcats will need to watch out for Arkansas and then a road game at Georgia after that. They then close out the regular season at home against Florida, who gave them some trouble when they played last week. I would still put my money on at least one loss before the end of the big dance, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them break the single season victory record of 38, currently held by 2008 Memphis and 2012 Kentucky.

This evening's games with implications for the Gophers are:
-Penn State @ Ohio State: A Penn State victory would benefit the Gophers as the Nittany Lions are on the schedule twice, compared to just one matchup against the Buckeyes.
-Pittsburgh @ Louisville
-Stony Brook @ UMBC
-DePaul @ Saint John's
-Georgia @ Texas A&M
-Miami (FL) @ Wake Forest
-The Indiana @ Maryland game will be a wash as Minnesota plays both teams once.

Of the six games, the Gophers would be fortunate to have three go their way. Four would be a stretch. It's unlikely that Penn State will put up a fight against Ohio State, and UMBC has little chance against Stony Brook. Wake Forest is a likely loss, and Georgia will be a tough game. Louisville and Saint John's swill both be heavily favored in their games.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, Notre Dame, North Carolina
4's: Baylor, Utah, Butler, Oklahoma
5's: Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Indiana, VCU,
6's: Arkansas, West Virginia, Wichita State, Ohio State
7's: SMU, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Iowa
8's: Colorado State, Texas, Providence, Cincinnati
9's: Dayton, Temple, San Diego State, Illinois
10's: Georgia, Ole Miss,Temple, Saint John's
11's: Stanford, LSU, Xavier, Wofford
12's: Oregon, Tulsa, George Washington, Michigan State, Old Dominion, Green Bay
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Harvard, Buffalo
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, High Point, North Carolina Central, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Florida Gulf Coast, American, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Miami (FL), Boise State, USLA, Wyoming
NFO: Seton Hall, North Carolina State, Rhode Island, Massachusetts

February 10, 2015

A couple of big wins out of the state of Oklahoma last night! Both the Sooners and Cowboys knocked off ranked opponents, and both climbed a seed line in today's projections.

I'm going to try and include a daily update on games that are most pertinent to the Gophers' tournament hopes. Both of tonight's Big10 games are between teams that Minnesota will play the same number of times - Michigan State & Northwestern once each, and Wisconsin and Nebraska twice each - although based on the standings it would be best to cheer for the Wildcats and Badgers tonight. The Gophers are one game behind Nebraska and two back of Michigan State. Surprisingly, aside from these two games, there are no other season opponents in action tonight. I'll update again tomorrow with games to watch.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona
3's: Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame
4's: Butler, Utah, Baylor, Oklahoma
5's: Northern Iowa, Indiana, VCU, Iowa State
6's: Arkansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Wichita State
7's: SMU, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Ohio State
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, iowa, Texas
9's: Providence, San Diego State, Georgia, Illinois
10's: Ole Miss, Xavier, Temple, Saint John's
11's: George Washington, Texas A&M, Tulsa, Old Dominion
12's: Oregon, LSU, Wofford, Stanford, Seton Hall, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, High Point, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Florida Gulf Coast, Lafayette, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Michigan State, Miami (FL), Boise State, Massachusetts
NFO: North Carolina State, Rhode Island, Davidson, UCLA

February 9, 2015

Here's an update of the Gophers' post-season hopes, with the remaining recipe for gaining a selection to the big dance. Ultimately, we can afford to lose only three more games between now and March 15th. Assuming one of those is a Big10 tournament knock-out loss, that means only two losses during the final seven regular season games. The good news is, Wisconsin is our only remaining opponent that has been dominant throughout the season. All others have shown some weaknesses that the Gophers could contend with.

2/12 @ #38 Iowa (15-8) - must win
2/15 @ #32 Indiana (17-7) - need to win either this game or the 26th @ Michigan State
2/18 vs. #157 Northwestern (10-13) - must win
2/21 @ #6 Wisconsin (21-2) - probably safe to chalk this one up as a loss...
2/26 @ #52 Michigan State (15-8) - need to win either this game or 15th @ Indiana
3/5 vs. #6 Wisconsin (21-2) - must win...or, sweep the three non-Wisconsin road games...pick your poison
3/8 vs. #93 Penn State (15-9) - must win
*3/11 vs. Big10 11-14 Seed, if seeded 11th-14th - must win
*3/12 vs. Big10 5-10 - must win if they didn't play on the 11th
*3/13 Big10 quarterfinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 12 losses
*3/14 Big10 semifinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 13 losses
*3/15 Big10 final - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 14+ losses

Based on the remaining schedule, I'll give the Gophers an 8:1 chance of playing in the NCAA Tourney. They've currently moved up to a #5 seed in my NIT projections, and would climb back onto the NCAA bubble with a win at Iowa on Thursday.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona
3's: Louisville, Notre Dame, Maryland, North Carolina
4's: Baylor, Butler, Iowa State, VCU
5's: Utah, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana
6's: Arkansas, Wichita State, West Virginia, SMU
7's: Ohio State, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Providence
8's: Texas, Dayton, Colorado State, Iowa
9's: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Old Dominion, Illinois
10's: Ole Miss, Saint John's, Georgia, Xavier
11's: Texas A&M, George Washington, LSU, Oregon
12's: Tulsa, Stanford, Temple, Seton Hall, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, High Point, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Lafayette, Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Michigan State, Wyoming, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: North Carolina State, UCLA, Rhode Island, Alabama

February 6, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, VCU, Notre Dame
4's: Butler, Baylor, North Carolina, Northern Iowa
5's: Utah, Arkansas, Iowa State, Wichita State
6's: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Indiana
7's: SMU, Ohio State, Colorado State, Providence
8's: Dayton, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, San Diego State
9's: Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Ole Miss
10's: Xavier, Old Dominion, Tulsa, Seton Hall
11's: LSU, Wyoming, Saint John's, UCLA
12's: Michigan State, Texas A&M, Wofford, Illinois, Oregon, Buffalo
13's: Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Yale, Iona, Long Beach State, High Point
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, William & Mary
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: George Washington, Temple, Stanford, Western Kentucky
NFO: Syracuse, Alabama, Miami (FL), Boise State

February 5, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, Notre Dame, Butler
4's: Baylor, VCU, Iowa State, Arkansas
5's: Utah, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
6's: West Virginia, Indiana, Oklahoma, Georgetown
7's: SMU, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Providence
8's: Georgia, Colorado State, San Diego State, Dayton
9's: Tulsa, Texas, LSU, Old Dominion
10's: Cincinnati, Stanford, Ole Miss, Seton Hall
11's: Wyoming, Texas A&M, Xavier, Iowa
12's: Michigan State, Saint John's, Illinois, Oregon, Wofford, Green Bay
13's: Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Iona, Yale, Long Beach State, Georgia State
15's: William & Mary, Stony Brook, North Carolina Central, High Point
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: George Washington, Temple, Western Kentucky, BYU
NFO: Davidson, UCLA, Syracuse, Boise State

February 4, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Villanova, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Notre Dame, VCU, Butler
4's: Maryland, Baylor, North Carolina, Iowa State
5's: Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Wichita State, Utah
6's: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Indiana
7's: SMU, Ohio State, Colorado State, Dayton
8's: San Diego State, Providence, Texas, Old Dominion
9's: Oklahoma State, Xavier, Georgia, Texas A&M
10's: LSU, Seton Hall, Tulsa, Cincinnati
11's: Davidson, Iowa, Saint John's, Illinois
12's: Stanford, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Temple, Wofford, Green Bay
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Yale, Iona, Long Beach State, William & Mary
15's: Georgia State, Stony Brook, North Carolina Central, High Point
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: Wyoming, Washington, George Washington, Miami (FL)
NFO: Oregon, Boise State, UCLA, Western Kentucky

February 3, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Wisconsin
3's: Louisville, Notre Dame, Butler, VCU
4's: Maryland, North Carolina, West Virginia, Baylor
5's: Iowa State, Indiana, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
6's: Arkansas, Georgetown, Utah, Ohio State
7's: Oklahoma, SMU, San Diego STate, Seton Hall
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, Providence, Texas
9's: Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Tulsa, LSU
10's: Cincinnati, Georgia, Stanford, Oklahoma State
11's: Xavier, Saint John's, Iowa, Miami (FL)
12's: Michigan State, Tennessee, Illinois, North Carolina State, Wofford, Murray State
13's: Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo, Eastern Washington
14's: Long Beach State, Iona, Yale, William & Mary
15's: Georgia State, High Point, Stony Brook, North Carolina Central
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: Davidson, Ole Miss, George Washington, Wyoming
NFO: Washington, Temple, BYU, UCLA

February 2, 2015

It's been awhile since I've added much commentary to my updates, so here's a snapshot of the Gophers' post-season hopes entering February play. With eight regular season games remaining, Minnesota is 13-9; 3-7 in Big10 play. The likelihood of being awarded a tournament selection with 13 season losses is extremely low, especially with a SOS of 73. That should improve to the 40's by the end of the season, but still not high enough for a 13-loss tournament team. That means that the Gophers can afford to lose only three more games by March 15th in order to have a realistic chance of making the big dance. Let's take a quick peek at their remaining schedule:

2/7 vs. #79 Purdue (14-8) - must win
2/12 @ #52 Iowa (13-8) - must win
2/15 @ #35 Indiana (16-6) - need to win either this game or the 26th @ Michigan State
2/18 vs. #159 Northwestern (10-11) - must win
2/21 @ #8 Wisconsin (19-2) - probably safe to chalk this one up as a loss...
2/26 @ #37 Michigan State (15-7) - need to win either this game or 15th @ Indiana
3/5 vs. #8 Wisconsin (19-2) - must win...yeah, that's right......
3/8 vs. #100 Penn State (14-8) - must win
*3/11 vs. Big10 11-14 Seed, if seeded 11th-14th - must win
*3/12 vs. Big10 5-10 - must win if they didn't play on the 11th
*3/13 Big10 quarterfinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 12 losses
*3/14 Big10 semifinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 13 losses
*3/15 Big10 final - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 14+ losses

So, as you can see, the outlook is bleak. If I had to assign odds, I'd say we're looking at 10:1 at this point. It's really amazing looking back at those first handful of Big10 games, how much of a difference one or two possessions makes down the stretch. One more basket against Ohio State and another 0.3 seconds against Iowa, and we might be looking at a 50-50 shot of tournament play.

On the bright side, the Gophs got a shot at defending our NIT title. Right now I've got them pegged as a 7-seed, so they may need to pick up some slack to even earn an invite back to that tournament.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Kansas
2's: Arizona, Villanova, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, VCU, Maryland, Notre Dame
4's: Butler, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, West Virginia
5's: Wichita State, Baylor, Iowa State, Georgetown
6's: Indiana, Arkansas, Utah, Ohio State
7's: Oklahoma, SMU, Seton Hall, Colorado State
8's: San Diego State, Dayton, Old Dominion, Texas
9's: Providence, Texas A&M, Tulsa, LSU
10's: Georgia, Stanford, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati
11's: Xavier, Davidson, Saint John's, Iowa
12's: Wofford, Tennessee, George Washington, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Iona, Yale, Long Beach State, William & Mary
15's: Georgia STate, North Carolina Central, High Point, Stony Brook
16's: South Dakota State, Texas Southern, Lafayette, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: North Carolina State, Temple, Wyoming, Illinois
NFO: Washington, Rhode Island, Western Kentucky, Syracuse