2015-2016 Pre-season bracket

College hoops are back a week from Friday!  Below are my initial pre-season bracket projections.

1's: Kansas, Villanova, Arizona, Virginia
2's: North Carolina, Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland
3's: Iowa State, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin
4's: Texas, Wichita State, Georgetown, Notre Dame
5's: Arkansas, West Virginia, Michigan State, Oregon
6's: Oklahoma, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Tulsa
7's: Boise State, San Diego State, Utah, VCU
8's: Temple, Butler, Xavier, Cincinnati
9's: Colorado State, North Carolina State, Connecticut, Davidson
10's: Northern Iowa, Valparaiso, Indiana, Pittsburgh
11's: Purdue, Texas A&M, LSU, Old Dominion
12's: Providence, Stanford, Saint John's, Miami (FL), Ole Miss, Iona
13's: Georgia State, Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Central Michigan
14's: Harvard, High Point, Wofford, North Carolina Central
15's: Northeastern, UC Irvine, Albany, South Dakota State
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, Eastern Washington, Lafayette, New Mexico State, Alabama State, Saint Francis (PA)

FFO: Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, Georgia
NFO: Memphis, Dayton, Syracuse, Massachusetts

March 15, 2015 - Final Bracket

1's: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Virginia, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
4's: North Carolina, Oklahoma, SMU, Northern Iowa
5's: Louisville, Arkansas, West Virginia, VCU
6's: Utah, Wichita State, Butler, Georgetown
7's: Providence, Michigan State, Oregon, Saint John's
8's: San Diego State, Davidson, Cincinnati, Iowa
9's: Colorado State, Ohio State, Xavier, North Carolina State
10's: Texas, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Temple
11's: Indiana, Georgia, LSU, BYU, Purdue, Tulsa
12's: Stephen F. Austin, Wyoming, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Harvard, Valparaiso, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: New Mexico State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Albany
15's: Northeastern, Belmont, Coastal Carolina, UAB
16's: Texas Southern, Lafayette, Manhattan, North Florida, Robert Morris, Hampton

FFO: Boise State, Ole Miss, Illinois, Old Dominion
NFO: Connecticut, Richmond, Rhode Island, UCLA

March 15, 2015 - Update #2

Update through Sunday's first three games. No surprises in these games as Kentucky, VCU, and Georgia State were victorious. Below are contingencies based on today's remaining two games. I will post my final bracket by 5pm CST.
1. UConn vs. SMU. A UConn win would get them in as either a low 10- or high 11-seed, knocking Tulsa out. No changes with an SMU win.
2. Wisconsin vs. Michigan State. This is the big one! Wisconsin moves up to a 1-seed with a win, replacing Virginia. Michigan State would remain a 7-seed. A Michigan State win would move them up to a 6-seed and leave Wisconsin on the 2-line.

1's: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Virginia
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
4's: North Carolina, Oklahoma, SMU, Northern Iowa
5's: Louisville, Arkansas, West Virginia, VCU
6's: Utah, Wichita State, Butler, Georgetown
7's: Providence, Michigan State, Oregon, Saint John's
8's: San Diego State, Davidson, Cincinnati, Iowa
9's: Colorado State, Ohio State, Xavier, North Carolina State
10's: Texas, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Temple
11's: Indiana, Georgia, LSU, BYU, Purdue, Tulsa
12's: Stephen F. Austin, Wyoming, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Harvard, Valparaiso, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: New Mexico State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Albany
15's: Northeastern, Belmont, Coastal Carolina, UAB
16's: Texas Southern, Lafayette, Manhattan, North Florida, Robert Morris, Hampton

FFO: Boise State, Connecticut, Ole Miss, Illinois
NFO: Old Dominion, Richmond, Rhode Island, UCLA

March 15, 2015 - Initial update

Update through Saturday's games. Below are contingencies based on today's five games. I will post my final bracket by 5pm CST.
1. Kentucky vs. Arkansas - No change either way for Kentucky. Arkansas moves up to a 4-seed with a win, no change with a loss.
2. VCU vs. Dayton - VCU win moves them up to a 5-seed and drops Dayton to a 9-seed. A Dayton win moves them up to an 8-seed and VCU stays on the 6-line
3. Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State. State would be a 13, Southern would be a 14.
4. UConn vs. SMU. A UConn win would get them in as either a low 10- or high 11-seed, knocking Tulsa out. No changes to with an SMU win.
5. Wisconsin vs. Michigan State. This is the big one! Wisconsin moves up to a 1-seed with a win, replacing Virginia. Michigan State would remain a 7-seed. A Michigan State win would move them up to a 6-seed and leave Wisconsin on the 2-line.

1's: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Virginia
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
4's: North Carolina, Oklahoma, SMU, Louisville
5's: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia, Utah
6's: Wichita State, VCU, Butler, Georgetown
7's: Providence, Michigan State, Oregon, Saint John's
8's: San Diego State, Davidson, Cincinnati, Iowa
9's: Colorado State, Dayton, Ohio State, Xavier
10's: North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Temple
11's: Georgia, Indiana, LSU, BYU, Purdue, Tulsa
12's: Stephen F. Austin, Wyoming, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Harvard, Valparaiso, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: New Mexico State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Albany
15's: Coastal Carolina, Northeastern, Belmont, UAB
16's: Texas Southern, Lafayette, Manhattan, North Florida, Robert Morris, Hampton

FFO: Boise State, Connecticut, Ole Miss, Illinois
NFO: Old Dominion, Richmond, Rhode Island, UCLA

March 14, 2015 - (only games through Friday, March 13)

Update through Friday's games. Not sure if I'll be able to get another update posted this evening.

1's: Kentucky, Villanova, Virginia, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Baylor
4's: Oklahoma, North Carolina, West Virginia, Louisville
5's: SMU, Utah, Northern Iowa, Arkansas
6's: Butler, Wichita STate, Georgetown, VCU
7's: Providence, Oregon, San Diego State, Saint John's
8's: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Xavier, Davidson
9's: Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Texas
10's: Ohio State, Temple, North Carolina State, Dayton
11's: Georgia, Tulsa, Purdue, Indiana, Boise State
12's: LSU, BYU, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Valparaiso, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: North Dakota State, Coastal Carolina, Northeastern, Belmont
15's: Manhattan, Stony Brook, New Mexico, State, UC Irvine
16's: Middle Tennessee, Texas Southern, North Florida, Lafayette, Robert Morris, Delaware State

FFO: Rhode Island, Connecticut, Ole Miss, Richmond
NFO: Illinois, UCLA, Texas A&M, Miami (FL)

March 13, 2015

Unfortunately, I'm short on spare time this morning, so I'll try to get another update posted later this afternoon with more commentary. The one thing I'll say is that the Gophers are most likely bound for the CBI after last night's loss to Ohio State. I'll also try to post an updated NIT bracket today, but at first glance, it looks like they dropped at least four spots, and they were the 2nd in as of yesterday, so probably not gonna happen...

Today's bracket update.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina
5's: Georgetown, SMU, Utah, Northern Iowa
6's: Wichita State, Arkansas, Butler, VCU
7's: Providence, Colorado State, San Diego State, Cincinnati
8's: Saint John's, Davidson, Oregon, Ohio State
9's: Iowa, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Texas
10's: Xavier, North Carolina State, Indiana, Temple
11's: Georgia, Dayton, LSU, Tulsa, Purdue
12's: Boise State, Ole Miss, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Valparaiso, Harvard, Louisiana Tech, UC Davis
14's: North Dakota State, Georgia State, Northeastern, Eastern Washington
15's: North Carolina Central, Belmont, Stony Brook, New Mexico State
16's: Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, Texas Southern, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris

FFO: Richmond, Texas A&M, UCLA, Connecticut
NFO: BYU, Rhode Island, Illinois, Old Dominion

Any teams not listed above will need to win their tourney to secure an automatic bid.

March 12, 2015 - NIT

Minnesota bolstered their NIT chances with a win last night, and could get some help tonight with losses by a few teams ahead of them. A win over Ohio State tonight would lock up their invite.


1's: Illinois, Boise State, Connecticut, UCLA
2's: Richmond, Stanford, Miami (FL), Rhode Island
3's: Alabama, BYU, Tennessee, Florida
4's: Michigan, Saint Mary's College, Pittsburgh, UTEP
5's: Memphis, George Washington, Minnesota, South Carolina
6's: Louisiana Tech, Murray State, Central Michigan, Iona
7's: William & Mary, South Dakota State, Albany, Georgia Southern
8's: Bucknell, Sacramento State, Charleston Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Kansas State, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Wyoming
NFO: Green Bay, Clemson, UNLV, Illinois State

March 12, 2015

Lafayette sealed up the 12th auto-bid last night. There are 20 left, most of which will be decided on Saturday. Actually, of those 20, only 9 have potential bubble impacts. 11 of them are for conferences with no at-large contenders, so they'll simply be filling a 12-16 seed line.

There really wasn't a whole lot of noteworthy results last night. Of the games I had an eye on, the favorite won each. The only bubble impact was the loss of Pittsburgh, who fell to NC State. Stanford and Miami each held on with wins in their respective tournaments, but it will get tougher for both teams tonight.
-Stanford faces a Utah team that has lost three of its last five, including most recently at Washington, who the Cardinal beat last night. With a win tonight, the Cardinal would advance to face Oregon, and those two wins may be enough to put them in the field, especially if a few teams ahead of them stumble.
-Miami faces Notre Dame in a rematch of a very hard fought Irish victory at Notre Dame in January. Miami's road is significantly more challenging, with Duke waiting for them tomorrow if they survive tonight.

Here are a few more games tonight with significant bubble implications:
-Alabama vs. Florida. Alabama is in a really bad place. A win against Florida is unfortunately not enough to get them over the bubble, and they'd face Kentucky tomorrow if they pass tonight's test. Barring a miraculous perfection-ending win over the Wildcats, the Tide will be rolling into the NIT come Sunday.
-Auburn vs. Texas A&M. The Aggie's saving grace is that they have no bad losses. Otherwise their resume would have them on the outside of the bubble. As it stands, I have them as one of the last four in, and a loss tonight would knock them out. To make matters worse, a win doesn't gaurantee a spot either, as they'd then face fellow bubbler LSU tomorrow night for what could be a winner-take-bid situation. Unless several other bubble teams falter, either A&M or LSU could be NIT bound tomorrow.
-Middle Tennessee vs. Old Dominion. OD is in an interesting spot. They would be a FFO team if they weren't my favorite to win C-USA. If they were to make it to the finals and lose, they could still have a chance at one of the last few at-large bids if other teams slip.
-USC vs. UCLA. UCLA is in a similar spot as Alabama. Even if they advance tonight, they'd most likely face Arizona tomorrow. To be fair, UCLA over Zona wouldn't quite be the upset of the year like Bama over KY, but it's still a sufficiently difficult task that I'm ready to put a fork in the Bruins.
-Northwestern vs. Indiana. Indiana's 3/4/8 quality win line with just 1 bad loss is relatively safe at this point, but a loss tonight would put them in a precarious position. It would be their 13th overall and 2nd bad loss, enough to move them into a slightly stickier situation.
-South Florida vs. Connecticut. UConn likely has the easiest path of all teams currently outside the bubble. They'll be heavily favored tonight, then would face Cincy and Tulsa, both of whom the Huskies have beaten already this season. The only thing working against UConn is their 13 regular season losses. If they manage to win only two of these three games, they'd end at 19-14, which could be a prohibitively poor record, even with 5 top-50 wins.
-South Carolina vs. Ole Miss. Mississippi needs at least one win to feel secure with their spot on the inside of the bubble. Wins over South Carolina and Georgia would clinch an at-large bid, but a loss to SC would most likely drop them to the FFO.

Finally, a couple top-25 games to watch that will impact the seedings towards the top of the bracket.
-UNC vs. Louisville. At 1/2/9 quality wins, Louisville is in need of another top-25 win to bolster their top-4 seed resume. With 10-losses, UNC could really use a deep ACC run in order to reinforce a top-5 seed with double digit losses. Their #2 SOS and 1/4/9 quality win line both help, but the committee may see a 22-11 record as prohibitive to a top-20 seeding.
-Baylor vs. West Virginia. This quarterfinal matchup is all you need to see to understand how deep the Big 12 is this year. 70% of their conference will be in the field, and all 7 are legitimate Sweet 16 teams. Ultimately, a loss in this game won't seriously hurt either team. In fact, I don't think either would drop a seed line. Baylor's upside is minimal - they could potentially pass Maryland for the top 3-seed, especially if the Terps fail to win the Big 10 tourney. WVU, on the other hand, could move up to the 3-line with a win tonight. This would likely require losses by both Notre Dame and Oklahoma, but it could happen. The winner faces Kansas, who swept Baylor and split with WVU - losing by just 1 in Morgantown.


Okay...enough rambling, here's today's update.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgetown
5's: North Carolina, Utah, SMU, Northern Iowa
6's: Wichita State, Arkansas, Butler, VCU
7's: Colorado State, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: Oklahoma State, Texas, San Diego State, Cincinnati
9's: Oregon, Ohio State, North Carolina State, Xavier
10's: Michigan State, Davidson, Indiana, Georgia
11's: Dayton, Temple, LSU, Tulsa, Texas A&M
12's: Ole Miss, Purdue, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Valparaiso, UC Davis
14's: North Dakota State, Georgia State, Northeastern, Eastern Washington
15's: North Carolina Central, Belmont, Stony Brook, New Mexico State
16's: Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, Texas Southern, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris

FFO: Illinois, Boise State, Connecticut, UCLA
NFO: Richmond, Stanford, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Alabama (Next FIVE Out)

Any teams not listed above will need to win their tourney to secure an automatic bid.

March 11, 2015 - NIT

Two more NIT auto-bids were secured last night as St. Francis (NY) and South Dakota State lost in their respective conference tournament finals. That brings the current total to 6, with additional 6 likely. That leaves just 24 at-large spots in the field, and makes it even that more important for the Gophers to secure two wins in the Big10 tournament.


1's: Ole Miss, Illinois, Connecticut, Richmond
2's: UCLA, Miami (FL), Stanford, Pittsburgh
3's: Alabama, BYU, Rhode Island, Michigan
4's: Kansas State, Florida, Memphis, Tennessee
5's: Seton Hall, South Carolina, Saint Mary's College, Minnesota
6's: Louisiana Tech, Murray State, Central Michigan, William & Mary
7's: Iona, South Dakota State, Albany, Georgia Southern
8's: Bucknell, Sacramento State, Charleston Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Clemson, Vanderbilt, UTEP, George Washington
NFO: Wyoming, Arizona State, UNLV, Green Bay

March 11, 2015

Four more big winners last night, and four days left until showtime!
The favorites split last night's conference finals, with Gonzaga and Valpo winning the WCC and Horizon Leagues, respectively, and #2 seeds North Dakota State and Robert Morris winning the Summit League and Northeast Conference. No big surprises from these results, in fact only a Gonzaga loss would have carried shock value. As a result of that Zags victory, BYU will likely be left out of the NCAA field.

Just one ticket to punch tonight, and in a 180 from last night's chalk finales, #4 Lafayette will take on #6 American U in the Patriot League final. Neither of these teams were on many radars (and likely zero brackets) just a week ago. I'll pick the favorite Lafayette here, but given my 5 for 10 conference final pick 'em record so far, it could go either way.

Most of the remaining conference tournaments will begin this evening, with the last five starting tomorrow. Below are a few games with NCAA tournament implications worth keeping an eye on.
-UNC vs. Boston College. The Tar Heels could move up from the 5 line to a 4-seed with a deep run in the ACC tourney, possibly even a 3-seed if they win it. Conversely, they'd drop to a 6 or even 7 with a loss tonight.
Pittsburgh vs. NC State. Both teams are in tenuous positions, but on opposite sides of the bubble. Pittsburgh needs at least 2 ACC tourney wins to put themselves in serious at-large contention, 3 would put them in. NC State's at-large bid looks to be fairly safe with a #5 SOS and 3/4/8 quality wins (top-25/-50/-100), but a loss would be their 13th, which would drop them to an 11-seed and may mean playing a first-four game in Dayton.
VA Tech vs. Miami (FL). The Hurricanes need this game, and a win against Notre Dame in the quarterfinals to put themselves back in at-large contention. They have 4 bad losses working against them, but a trip to the ACC final should secure a bid.
Texas vs. Texas Tech. Texas is in a similar spot to NC State with 12-losses. They also have a solid resume - despite a modest 2/3/6 quality wins, they have the #12 SOS and no bad losses. A loss to the Red Raiders tonight would drop them to an 11-seed at best, and possibly a trip to Dayton.
Washington vs. Stanford. The Cardinal are another team at the very back end of the bubble, needing at least two, likely three, wins to get an at-large bid.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgetown
5's: Northern Iowa, North Carolina, Utah, Wichita State
6's: SMU, Arkansas, Butler, VCU
7's: Colorado State, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Texas, North Carolina State
9's: Cincinnati, Ohio State, Xavier, Oregon
10's: Michigan State, Indiana, Georgia, Davidson
11's: Temple, Dayton, LSU, Tulsa, Texas A&M
12's: Boise State, Purdue, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Valparaiso, UC Davis
14's: North Dakota State, Georgia State, Northeastern, Eastern Washington
15's: North Carolina Central, Belmont, Stony Brook, New Mexico State
16's: Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, Texas Southern, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris

FFO: Ole Miss, Illinois, Connecticut, Richmond
NFO: UCLA, Miami (FL), Stanford, Pittsburgh

Others Still Alive: Alabama, Rhode Island...that's it folks. Any teams not listed above will need to win their tourney to secure an automatic bid.

March 10, 2015 - NIT

Minnesota was dealt a tough blow last night, after Iona and William & Mary were both upset in their respective conference finals. That adds two more to the NIT automatic qualifiers, making it even more crucial for the Gophers to secure two victories in the Big Ten tourney, which gets underway tomorrow night.


1's: Illinois, Boise State, BYU, Connecticut
2's: Richmond, UCLA, Stanord, Miami (FL)
3's: Alabama, Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Kansas State
4's: Saint Mary's College, Florida, Seton Hall, Michigan
5's: South Carolina, Memphis, Tennessee, Minnesota
6's: Murray State, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Clemson
7's: Central Michigan, Iona, Willian & Mary, Albany
8's: Georgia Southern, Bucknell, Sacramento State, Charleston Southern

FFO: Illinois State, UTEP, George Washington, UNLV
NFO: Wyoming, Arizona State, Yale, Vanderbilt

March 10, 2015

Just five action packed days left before Selection Sunday!
Three more automatic bids were secured last night. Northeastern, Wofford, and Manhattan joined the field, bringing the total to seven. Wofford was nearly upset in the SoCon final by Furman, who would have been the first 21-loss team in more than 40 years to earn an NCAA bid.

Four more conferences will finalize their auto-bids this evening:
-Horizon League: The top two teams all season will square off for the conference championship. I'm going to give #1 Valparaiso the very slight edge over #2 UW-Green Bay in this one. They split the regular season matchups, with each team squeaking out a very narrow home win.
-Northeast Conference: In another chalk final, #1 St. Francis-Brooklyn will face #2 Robert Morris. And again, the teams split their regular season meetings, except here the road team narrowly won. Once again I'll give the edge to the top seed in a close finish.
-Summit League: There's a trend here...#1 vs #2 yet again. Top seed South Dakota State faces #2 North Dakota State, and they split the season series with the home team taking each game. And again, I'll give the slight edge to the top seeded Jackrabbits.
-West Coast Conference: Although this one is yet another #1 vs #2 matchup, the likely outcome here is a bit more obvious. Gonzaga will be heavy favorites against BYU, who desperately needs this win to secure their at-large bid.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgetown
5's: Utah, Northern Iowa, North Carolina, Wichita State
6's: SMU, Arkansas, Butler, Colorado State
7's: VCU, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Texas, North Carolina State
9's: Cincinnati, Ohio State, Xavier, Michigan State
10's: Oregon, Davidson, Indiana, Temple
11's: LSU, Georgia, Dayton, Tulsa, Texas A&M
12's: Ole Miss, Purdue, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Harvard, Buffalo, UC Davis, Valparaiso
14's: Georgia State, Northeastern, South Dakota State, Eastern Washington
15's: Stony Brook, Belmont, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State
16's: Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY), North Florida, Manhattan

FFO: Illinois, Boise State, BYU, Connecticut
NFO: Richmond, UCLA, Stanford, Miami (FL)

March 9, 2015 - NIT

Minnesota layed a major egg by losing to Penn State last night. Their NIT hopes aren't completely dead, but now on major life support. They will need at least one victory in the Big 10 tournament in order to secure a spot. They may need a second tournament win, depending on how many other regular season champs fail to win their own tournaments.

The loss dropped Minnesota to the #11 seed, which may actually be a blessing in disguise based on the way the Big 10 tournament bracked lined up. As the #10 seed, Minnesota would have had to face #7 Indiana followed by #2 Maryland, both of which the Gophers failed to put up much of a fight against during the regular season. Instead, as the #11 they get to start against #14 Rutgers, who they beat during the regular season. If they win that game, they'll face #6 Ohio State, who needed Overtime to beat the Gophers back on January 6th. The Buckeyes have had a rough patch lately, losing 3 of their last 6, including an absolute drubbing from the top-seeded Badgers. Finally, if they manage to get past those two games, they'd face #3 Michigan State, who they just beat in East Lansing two weeks earlier. It's still a quite daunting path to the semis, but I'd rather have to play three games against beatable teams than two against opponents we've already lost miserably to.


1's: Illinois, Ole Miss, Connecticut, UCLA
2's: Richmond, Alabama, BYU, Miami (FL)
3's: Pittsburgh, Stanford, Saint Mary's College, Rhode Island
4's: Seton Hall, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas State
5's: Florida, Michigan, Memphis, Minnesota, Clemson
6's: Clemson, Murray State, George Washington, Central Michigan
7's: Valparaiso, Louisiana Tech, High Point, Albany
8's: Georgia Southern, Bucknell, Sacramento State, Charleston Southern

FFO: Massachusetts, UTEP, Wyoming, Arizona State
NFO: UNLV, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston State, Illinois State

March 9, 2015

Wow, what a weekend full of upset surprises.
First, Murray State lost to Belmont in the Ohio Valley final, ruining their perfect conference record, and their chances for an NCAA bid. I will admit some enjoyment in the vindication of my position that many AP voters had no idea what they're doing, as Murray State clearly had no business being ranked. It's funny how they went from the 25th ranked team in the country to receiving not a single vote today.
-Then, Wichita State lost in the MVC semifinal to Illinois State, who nearly took down Northern Iowa in the final. UNI pulled off the victory, allowing bubble teams to breathe a sigh of releif
-Finally, after a dramatic Yale victory over Harvard in what should have sealed their tournament entry, the Bulldogs lost to Dartmouth to fall back into a tie with Harvard for the conference regular season. There will now be a tie-breaker rubber match game played between Harvard and Yale on Saturday the 14th.

In additional to Belmont and Northern Iowa, two other teams punched their ticket over the weekend.
-Coastal Carolina beat Gardner Webb (who had previously upset favorite High Point) in the semifinal on Saturday, and then cruised past Winthrop in Sunday's Big South final.
-North Florida beat South Carolina Upstate on Sunday to claim the Atlantic Sun bid.

Three more teams will punch their ticket in conference tourney finals tonight:
-Northeastern will face William & Mary in the Colonial Athletic Association championship. The teams split their regular season meetings, each won by the home team. I give the slight edge to William & Mary.
-Surprise Furman plays Wofford for the Southern Conference bid. After winning just five regular season games, Furman advanced to the final, but will be huge underdogs to a Wofford team that is currently on the at-large bubble and likely to receive one of the first few automatic bids outside the at-large field (12- or 13-seed) if they win tonight.
The Manhattan Jaspers play the Iona Gaels in the MAAC finals. Iona is heavy favorites, with only three conference losses on the season.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, Utah, Louisville, West Virginia
5's: North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Wichita State
6's: SMU, Arkansas, Butler, Colorado State
7's: VCU, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Texas, North Carolina State
9's: Cincinnati, Ohio State, Davidson, Michigan State
10's: Oregon, Indiana, Temple, LSU
11's: Xavier, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tulsa, Dayton
12's: Purdue, Boise State, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Harvard, UC Davis
14's: Iona, William & Mary, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
15's: South Dakota State, Stony Brook, Belmont, North Carolina Central
16's: New Mexico State, Coastal Carolina, Lafayett, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY), North Florida

FFO: Illinois, Ole Miss, Connecticut, UCLA
NFO: Richmond, Alabama, BYU, Miami (FL)

March 6, 2015

Tough loss for the Gophers last night. They played extremely well for most of the game, there's just only so much you can do against a team as talented and well disciplined as Wisconsin. As good as the Gophers were playing on defense, the Badgers still managed to shoot more than 60% in the first half, including a dizzying start of something like 9 for 11, including 4 for 4 from beyond the arc. Ultimately, it was the expected result and really didn't hurt the Gophers' NIT bid. If anything, the impressive level of play against such dominant competition may have improved their resume, even in a home loss. Unfortunately that's not captured in the resume metrics - at least not those that I utilize.
In other news and notes...
-Davidson crushed VCU to slide well into the at-large field.
-Florida Gulf Coast's season ended with a semifinal loss in the Atlantic Sun tournament. South Carolina Upstate will play North Florida for the NCAA bid on Sunday.
-Ohio Valley semifinals are tonight, pitting [Dick Vitale's] #19 Murray State against Morehead State and Belmont versus Eastern Kentucky. The winners will play tomorrow for the first NCAA auto-bid.
-Harvard and Yale play this evening for what will most likely be the Ivy League auto-bid. Both teams play again tomorrow, in what should be relatively non-competitive regular season finales.
Both Missouri Valley juggernauts will get their first conference tournament action tonight, and will most likely both advance to Sunday's final in what will be a fantastic game to watch (1pm CST on CBS).
All-in-all, we'll have five auto-bids awarded by Sunday evening.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iiowa State, Utah
4's: Wichita State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Arkansas
5's: West Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Northern Iowa
6's: Georgetown, SMU, Butler, Providence
7's: VCU, Colorado State, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Saint John's, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Dayton
9's: Texas, Oregon, Cincinnati, North Carolina State
10's: Davidson, Indiana, Michigan State, Xavier
11's: Tulsa, Ole Miss, Georgia, Temple, LSU
12's: Texas A&M, Boise State, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Murray State, Harvard, Buffalo, Green Bay
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: William & Mary, Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, North Carolina Central
16's: New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY), North Florida

FFO: Illinois, Connecticut, Purdue, Pittsburgh
NFO: UCLA, Richmond, Stanford, Miami (FL)
...and just for fun...
NNFO: BYU, Kansas State, Saint Mary's College, Central Michigan
NNNFO: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Wyoming, Rhode Island

March 5, 2015 - NIT

As of today, the Gophers look to be safely in the NIT. A win against Wisconsin tonight would bump them up to a 1- or 2-seed, however a loss really wouldn't hurt much, if at all. What would hurt is a loss on Sunday against Penn State, or a first round Big10 tournament loss to a bottom-feeder Big10 team. Unless Northwestern finds a way to beat Iowa in Iowa City, the Gophers need to win just one of their remaining two games to avoid a day-one game in the Big 10 tourney.

If today's standings hold, Minnesota would draw Indiana in the #7-#10 day-two matchup. There is an outside chance of catching Michigan for the #9 seed, but that would require Gopher victories over Wisconsin and Penn State, and a Michigan loss against visiting [last-place] Rutgers.

Indiana currently holds a tie-breaker over Illinois, and finishes the regular season at home against the Spartans. The only way the Illini can gain the 7-seed would be winning their final game at Purdue and a Michigan State win over Indiana.

There are currently 11 conferences where the regular season winner is a lock for an at-large bid. That leaves 20 potential NIT auto-bids (Ivy League regular season winner gets NCAA auto-bid). Assuming the favorite will win in slightly more than half of those conference tourneys, we would expect there to be between 8-10 auto bids from these 20 tournaments. Most of these teams will fall to the 7- and 8-seeds in the NIT bracket, with the possibility of one or two sneaking a couple seeds higher.

1's: Davidson, Connecticut, Stanford, UCLA
2's: Purdue, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Miami (FL)
3's: BYU, Kansas State, Central Michigan, Minnesota
4's: Rhode Island, Saint Mary's College, Seton Hall, Michigan
5's: South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Wyoming
6's: Tennessee, UTEP, Memphis, Louisiana Tech
7's: Clemson, Valbaraiso, William & Mary, Albany
8's: Sacramento State, Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, North Florida

FFO: Yale, Massachusetts, Illinois State, California
NFO: Toledo, Bowling Green, George Washington, Kent State

March 5, 2015

-Notre Dame won the 3-seed showdown last night, bumping Louisville all the way to a #5.
-Providence ended Seton Hall's at-large hopes and solidified their own resume.
-No major upsets thus far in conference tournament play. In fact, only 2 of 13 tournament games yesterday ended in an upset: Longwood over Presbyterian and Saint Francis (PA) over Mount St. Mary's.
-The MVC tournament gets underway tonight, with the 7-10 seeds in action.
-Play also begins in the MAAC tourney, where the Iona Gaels will be favored.

-Finally, tonight's game against the Badgers may be the Gophers' last chance to add to their resume before Selection Sunday. It would be an unlikely win, but would be enough to put the Gophers back onto the bubble. They could still use some help from Michigan State sneaking up into the top-25, Illinois sliding back into the top-50, and Northwestern climbing into the top-100.
As for plan B, the Gophers are safely in the NIT field as of today, but losses to Penn State and/or a lower opening round Big10 conference opponent could change that. I'll try to get an NIT update posted later today.


Disclaimer about today's bracket update: due to a minor anomaly that's been bugging me for awhile now, I made a slight tweak to my regression model to better support seeding of teams near the bubble. If you notice any unexpected changes from yestesrday's bracket, that's why. I'll do some additional analysis after posting and may make some further tweaks tomorrow.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Notre Dame
4's: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Utah, North Carolina
5's: Louisville, Northern Iowa, West Virginia, Arkansas
6's: Butler, Georgetown, SMU, VCU
7's: Colorado State, Providence, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Texas, Dayton, Saint John's, Ohio State
9's: Oklahoma State, Oregon, North Carolina State, Cincinnati
10's: Tulsa, Indiana, Michigan State, Boise State
11's: Georgia, Temple, Illinois, Xavier, Ole Miss
12's: LSU, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Murray State, Harvard, Buffalo, Green Bay
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Northeastern, North Carolina Central
16's: Stony Brook, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, Syracuse, Connecticut, Stanford
NFO: UCLA, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Miami (FL), BYU, Kansas State, Central Michigan
NNNFO: Minnesota, Rhode Island, Saint Mary's College, Seton Hall

March 4, 2015

-Kentucky managed to hold off Georgia last night to start their season 30-0.
-Notre Dame travels to Louisville tonight in what will likely be a battle for a 3-seed.
-Providence plays at Seton Hall, who desperately needs quality wins to move onto the bubble.

Conference tournament play has begun, and the first few teams (outside the Ivy League) have been officially eliminated from NCAA tournament play.
-Ohio Valley conference will be the first to crown an auto-bid, on Saturday. Murray State is the heavy favorite there, with big help from a double-bye bracket where they begin play in the semifinal.
-Big South, Missouri Valley, and Atlantic Sun all hold their championship on Sunday. High Point is the favorite in the Big South, and North Florida in the Atlantic Sun. In the MVC tourney we should see a fantastic rubber match in the Wichita State-Northern Iowa battle; each team won by double digits on their home court. The winner will likely be a 3 or 4 seed, and the loser a 5 or 6.
-Speaking of the Ivy League, they hold their de-facto championship on Friday, as Yale plays at Harvard. The two teams are currently tied atop the conference standings, and Harvard won their home meeting in early February - a two-point nailbiter. Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League regular season champion is awarded the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Although both teams will have one remaining game on Saturday, both will be heavy favorites.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Louisville
4's: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Utah, Notre Dame
5's: Northern Iowa, West Virginia, North Carolina, Georgetown
6's: SMU, Arkansas, VCU, Butler
7's: Colorado State, Dayton, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Ohio State, Providence, Indiana, Saint John's
9's: Oklahoma State, Tulsa, Boise State, Oregon
10's: Texas, North Carolina State, Xavier, Michigan State
11's: Georgia, Temple, Texas A&M, Illinois, Cincinnati
12's: Davidson, LSU, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Northeastern, Albany
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Ole Miss, UCLA, Syracuse, Connecticut
NFO: Purdue, Pittsburgh, BYU, Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Stanford, Miami (FL), Minnesota, Kansas State
NNNFO: Seton Hall, George Washington, Wyoming, Rhode Island

March 3, 2015

There was a lot of action on my 3-line yesterday. Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma in Ames, and Baylor lost to a Texas team that had dropped 8 of 11 and was desperate for a resume booster. After the dust settled, not a whole lot changed on my bracket. Baylor dropped two snake spots, but maintained a spot on the 3-line thanks to a bevy of quality wins, and a #3 SOS. Oklahoma dropped just one snake line, but since they were previously on the end of the 3-line that means down to a #4 for the Sooners, replaced by Louisville.

In other games, Boise State knocked off San Diego State, solidifying their tournament selection. Barring any major collapses, the Mountain West will have three teams in the field (including Colorado State), possibly four if Utah State or Wyoming pulls off a conference tournament victory.

Tonight will be Kentucky's final road game of the season, against a formidable Georgia team. The Wildcats will still be heavy favorites, but this may be their last tough test before they reach the Sweet 16. The game will be on the 4-letter flagship at 8pm CST if you're interested.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Louisville
4's: Oklahoma, Wichita State, Utah, West Virginia
5's: Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Butler
6's: North Carolina, Georgetown, SMU, VCU
7's: Indiana, Colorado State, Dayton, Ohio State
8's: San Diego State, Iowa, Providence, Saint John's
9's: Tulsa, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Xavier
10's: Oregon, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas
11's: Michigan State, Temple, North Carolina State, Illinois, Cincinnati
12's: LSU, Davidson, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo
13's: Wofford, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Stony Brook
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Syracuse, Connecticut, UCLA, BYU
NFO: Purdue, Stanford, Miami (FL), Kansas State
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Richmond, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Minnesota
NNNFO: George Washington, Clemson, Alabama, Wyoming

March 2, 2015

Happy Monday, and welcome to March! With just 13 days until Selection Sunday, things are really starting to heat up. Despite a home loss to BYU, I have Gonzaga barely hanging on to the last #2 seed. A loss in the WCC tournament, and deep conference tournament runds by one of the current 3-seeds could knock them down. It will be interesting to see how pollsters rate the Zags' loss, and how far down they'll fall once the updated rankings come out later today.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Louisville, Utah, Wichita State, West Virginia
5's: Notre Dame, Butler, Northern Iowa, Arkansas
6's: SMU, North Carolina, Georgetown, VCU
7's: Indiana, Ohio State, San Diego State, Oklahoma State
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, Iowa, Providence
9's: Tulsa, Saint John's, Texas A&M, Xavier
10's: Michigan State, Oregon, Temple, Texas
11's: Boise State, Georgia, Illinois North Carolina State, Ole Miss
12's: Davidson, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Stony Brook
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: LSU, Syracuse, Connecticut, BYU
NFO: Kansas State, UCLA, Stanford, Purdue
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Pittsburgh, Richmond, Miami (FL), Seton Hall
NNNFO: Minnesota, George Washington, Alabama, Clemson

February 27, 2015

The Gophers pulled off a huge overtime upset in Lansing last night, which will help tremendously in solidifying an NIT bid. They have a week off before hosting the Badgers on Thursday the 5th. A victory in that came could even put them back into the bubble discussion, but they'd still need a very deep run in the Big 10 tournament to have a realistic shot at an at-large selection. In the meantime, they can get some help via losses by the teams above them, and wins by Penn State, Northwestern, and Nebraska. If any of those three teams can crack the top-100 (they're currently 112, 114, & 124th), that would help Minnesota a bunch.

I'm beginning to work on a mathematical system to rate the AP pollsters. I would like to be able to definitively say which voters know what they're doing, and which are ranking teams via one of these methods. I'll continue to provide updates as I make progress.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: West Virginia, Louisville, Utah, Butler
5's: Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, SMU
6's: Georgetown, North Carolina, VCU, Wichita State
7's: Oklahoma State, Indiana, San Diego State, Ohio State
8's: Providence, North Carolina State, Saint John's, Colorado State
9's: Georgia, Tulsa, Dayton, Texas
10's: Iowa, Xavier, Oregon, Texas A&M
11's: Michigan State, Ole Miss, Illinois, Cincinnati, Temple
12's: Pittsburgh, Davidson, Wofford, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Eastern Washington, South Dakota State
15's: High Point, William & Mary, Georgia State, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Syracuse, Stanford, LSU, UCLA
NFO: Boise State, Purdue, Miami (FL), Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Connecticut, UTEP, Washington, George Washington
NNNFO: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Rhode Island, BYU

February 26, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia
4's: Notre Dame, Louisville, Notre Dame, Utah
5's: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, North Carolina, Butler
6's: Georgetown, SMU, VCU, Wichita State
7's: Indiana, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, Tulsa, North Carolina State
9's: Providence, Xavier, Saint John's, Iowa
10's: Michigan State, Oregon, Georgia, Texas A&M
11's: Texas, Cincinnati, Temple, Illinois, Ole Miss
12's: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Old Dominion
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Harvard, Murray State
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Eastern Washington, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, North Carolina Central
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, LSU, UCLA, Boise State
NFO: Miami (FL), Richmond, Purdue, Stanford

February 25, 2015

Today I'm going to have myself a little rant about the sad state of the current polling system. I frequently talk to friends/coworkers/acquaintances about college basketball. All too often, well-informed and well-intentioned sports fans place far too much emphasis on poll rankings when referencing the strength of a team. I think the 4-letter network deserves a lot of blame for this, as they constantly perpetuate the myth that a team's poll ranking equates to their ability. They bump high-ranking matchups to primetime TV spots, and spend the vast majority of their time spouting about a select few historically good schools which draw a larger TV viewing audience (read: $$$), however all their talking-head rhetoric can't translate to quality performance on the court. I will qualify my frustration by saying that the discrepancies aren't quite as terrible at the top of the rankings, but I think that many of the voters simply get lazy once they get past #15, because there are some blatantly absurd voting patterns. Below are a couple of prime examples:

San Diego State ranked #24, Colorado State not a single vote. I don't disagree that the Aztecs are the better team, but the two teams are adjacent on the RPI list and I personally have them at #26 and #29, respectively, on my bracketology seed list. Their resumes are strikingly similar: Rams have one fewer loss, Aztecs have a slightly stronger schedule and one more quality win. Both teams have one bad loss, and their two meetings were split with the home team prevailing by single digits. The next example will further illustrate the absurdity of Colorado State having zero votes.

Murray State received 42 votes, ranked #28. A total of 16 voters had the Racers in their top-25 teams in the country. Let's take a quick peek at Murray State's resume: 22-4 record, #265 SOS, one top-100 win (December home game against #84 Illinois State...and they haven't played a top-135 team since). They have two losses outside the top-100, including to #268 Houston. I have the Racers at #78 on my bracketology seed list. Now, if one or two ignorant voters decided to slide Murray State a pity #25 vote based on their impressive record and they finished with one or two points, I would quickly scoff and move on. But they have 42 votes, which means that 65 individual "experts" voted them ahead of Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, Oregon, and about 50 other teams they shouldn't be ahead of, including Colorado State. I strongly believe that there needs to be a voter validation system, whereby voters' selections are tested by subsequent game results. Anomoly upsets will surely happen, but over a full season, we'll be able to easily tell who has their head up their ass [Dick Vitale] when they place Murray State #19 on their list. I would love to meet Dick Vitale today and ask him who he thought would win in a neutral-court matchup between Murray State and West Virginia. For christ's sake, the latter just throttled Oklahoma State in Stillwater by double digits and the former gave up 92 points in a 2-point victory over 10-16 #274 Southeast Missouri State.

If anyone is interested, below is the link to a site that shows the full voting results.
College Poll Tracker

...end rant.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia
4's: Oklahoma, Louisville, Notre Dame, Utah
5's: Butler, Northern Iowa, North Carolina, Arkansas
6's: VCU, Indiana, Georgetown, Wichita State
7's: SMU, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: Colorado State, Providence, North Carolina State, Saint John's
9's: Dayton, Tulsa, Oregon, Iowa
10's: Xavier, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Ole Miss
11's: Illinois, Temple, Texas, Georgia, Cincinnati
12's: Syracuse, Davidson, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Old Dominion
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Murray State
14's: Harvard, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: LSU, Pittsburgh, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: Stanford, Massachusetts, UCLA, Purdue

February 24, 2015 - Bracketology Post #100

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Baylor, Maryland, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Louisville, Utah
5's: Northern Iowa, VCU, Butler, North Carolina
6's: Georgetown, Arkansas, SMU, Indiana
7's: Wichita State, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Providence
8's: Colorado State, Ohio State, Saint John's, Texas
9's: Xavier, North Carolina State, Texas A&M, Michigan State
10's: Dayton, Tulsa, Oregon, Ole Miss
11's: Iowa, Illinois, Cincinnat, Temple, Georgia
12's: Pittsburgh, LSU, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Murray State, Iona
14's: Harvard, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, UCLA, Stanford, Boise State
NFO: Massachusetts, Wyoming, Purdue, Seton Hall

February 23, 2015 - NIT

This is my first attempt at an NIT bracket. The interest here is based on the Gophers' chances of having an opportunity to defend their title. Sadly, they're on the NIT bubble at this point, and need at least a couple more wins to solidify a chance at a selection.

As a reminder, teams who won their conference regular season, but failed to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament, are automatically qualified for the NIT. There are five of these teams in total, although right now I have Valpo safely in the NIT field, so really only the four 8-seeds are impacted. There will, however, be at least a few surprises come conference tournament time, as there have been at least 10 auto-bids for the NIT in each of the last four years. That said, the NIT bubble will likely move up to the 5- and 6-seeds, leaving Minnesota on the outside looking in.

1's: Stanford, Davidson, Boise State, Miami (FL)
2's: Pittsburgh, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Rhode Island
3's: Wyoming, Purdue, Seton Hall, Alabama
4's: Connecticut, George Washington, BYU, UTEP
5's: Washington, Tennessee, Florida, Valparaiso
6's: Central Michigan, Saint Mary's College, Richmond, Clemson
7's: Arizona State, Oregon State, Minnesota, Michigan
8's: Kent State, Louisiana Tech, Albany, Georgia Southern

FFO: Toledo, California, Yale, Memphis
NFO: Sam Houston State, Illinois State, La Salle, UNLV

February 23, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame
4's: Utah, Butler, Baylor, Iowa State
5's: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Georgetown
6's: Indiana, Arkansas, SMU, VCU
7's: Wichita State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: San Diego State, Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon
9's: Colorado State, North Carolina State, Iowa, Xavier
10's: Tulsa, Dayton, Saint John's, Illinois
11's: Texas A&M, Temple, Michigan State, Georgia, Cincinnati
12's: UCLA, LSU, Wofford, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Harvard, Murray State
14's: Iona, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Stanford, Davidson, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: Pittsburgh, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Rhode Island

February 19, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Utah, Notre Dame
4's: Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Louisville
5's: Northern Iowa, Butler, Arkansas, Indiana
6's: North Carolina, Georgetown, VCU, Wichita State
7's: SMU, Ohio STate, Oklahoma State, San Diego State
8's: Providence, Texas, Dayton, Colorado State, Illinois
9's: Saint John's, Temple, Xavier, Cincinnati
10's: Ole Miss, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Georgia
11's: Iowa, North Carolina State, Oregon, Wofford
12's: Davidson, UCLA, LSU, Boise State, Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Old Dominion, Harvard, Murray State, Iona
14's: Buffalo, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: High Point, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, American, New Mexico State, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Miami (FL), Tulsa, Massachusetts, Stanford
NFO: Syracuse, Alabama, Rhode Island, Wyoming

February 17, 2015

The Gophers' post-season hopes took a fairly sizable nose-dive over the long Presidents' Day weekend. Not only did they fail to make a close game of a road loss at Indiana, but each of the teams that could have helped their resume also lost.
-Georgia fell outside the top-25
-Iowa fell outside the top-50
-Western Kentucky fell outside the top-100
-Nebraska failed to crack the top-100, and fell further from it

With a 10th regular season loss, and now a 5-8 conference record, Minnesota has an increasingly narrow margin for error in regards to a potential tournament bid. It is unusual for a team to be selected with a losing conference record, although not impossible. A 4-1 finish to the regular season would all but clinch a selection, but is also unlikely, with two games remaining against Wisconsin, and a road game at Michigan State. The silver lining is that the difficulty of their remaining schedule will likely bump the Gophers into the low-50's SOS ranking, which could be a resume booster if they're still on the bubble come Selection Sunday. Below are a few updated scenarios that should garner the Gophers an at-large bid.
A 4-1 finish in Big 10 regular season play (loss at Madison). Even if bounced in the first round of the Big10 tournament, a 19-12 (9-10 B10) record with 4-5 top-50 wins would get them awfully close, depending on what a few other teams do. An opening round win in the conference tournament - 20-12 (10-10 B10) should clinch a bid.
A 3-2 finish in Big 10 regular season play (losses at Madison and Lansing). This scenario would likely require at least two wins in the Big10 tournament to get to a 21-13 (10-11 B10) record. Even that might not be enough, as 13 losses is typically a tipping point for tournament selection, unless it's paired with a top-10 SOS or an impressive number of quality wins.
A 2-3 finish in Big 10 regular season play (2 losses vs Badgers, 1 vs Spartans). in this scenario, the Gophers would need to win at least 3 conference tournament games, likely reaching the finals to solidify a selection.
A 1-4 finish in Big 10 regular season play. Regardless of the scenario here, the Gophers would be eliminated from at-large consideration, and would need to win the Big10 tournament to receive an automatic bid.

Games to watch tonight:
-Saint John's @ Georgetown - these teams are on opposite sides of the bubble, and although Georgetown needs it more, St. John's stands to gain more from a victory than the Hoyas. A Red Storm victory would also benefit the Gophers' SOS.
-South Carolina @ Georgia - a win here for the Bulldogs may push them back into the top-25, thereby giving the Gophers' resume a nice boost.
-Wake Forest @ Notre Dame - although quite unlikely, a victory by the Demon Deacons would not only help the Gophers' SOS, but would also bump their RPI within reaching distance of the top 100 (currently #129).
-Cleveland State @ Western Carolina - a late season non-conference matchup with minor SOS implications for the Gophers, rooting for the Catamounts in this one...I'll forgive those who don't recall which school this mascot belongs to.

Finally, a quick update on my 'Zaga-is-overrated' spiel from last week. As you'll notice below, a 5th loss for Kansas still leaves them well ahead of Gonzaga on the 2-line. The unfortnate reality for the Bulldogs is that they don't have any more resume builders on their remaining schedule, including the WCC tournament. They won't play another tournament team before Selection Sunday, so in all likelihood even if they win out they won't have a shot at a 1-seed unless at least four teams ahead of them each lose 2+ more games. For those that will make the '14 Wichita State comparison, I'll post a rebuttal in the very near future.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Louisville, Utah, Notre Dame
4's: Baylor, Butler, North Carolina, West Virginia
5's: Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Indiana, Oklahoma
6's: Arkansas, Wichita State, VCU, Oklahoma State
7's: Georgetown, Ohio State, San Diego State, SMU
8's: Providence, Temple, Colorado State, Illinois
9's: Cincinnati, Texas, Dayton, Saint John's
10's: Iowa, Georgia, Xavier, UCLA
11's: Ole Miss, Michigan State, North Carolina State, LSU, Texas A&M
12's: Wofford, Oregon, Massachusetts, Green Bay, Bowling Green
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Old Dominion, Harvard, Iona
14's: Murray State, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast, William & Mary
16's: North Carolina Central, Albany, American, New Mexico State, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Stanford, Miami (FL), George Washington, Boise State
NFO: Pittsburgh, BYU, Tulsa, Davidson

February 13, 2015

The Gophers pulled off a big win in Iowa City last night! It was a very close game for the first 30 minutes, until the Gophers pulled away with about 8 minutes to play. In an effort to make things interesting, Minnesota blew an 11 point lead with just over two minutes left, and allowed Iowa to climb within 2 points with 20 seconds left. Clutch free throw shooting sealed the five-point road victory.

Of the other six games last night with implications for the Gophers' resume, two ended favorably. This was the expected result, so no surprise or disappointment there. Based on the road win against a top-40 team, Minnesota's RPI jumped 20 spots to #68. Below are a few resume details to keep an eye on:
Georgia remaining in RPI top-25. The Bulldogs are currently #22, and it will be crucial down the stretch for Georgia to stay hot and remain in the top-25. Aside from Kentucky on March 3, their only real challenge will be @Ole Miss on Feb 27.
Iowa & Illinois remaining in RPI top-50. They are currently #42 and #44 respecitvely, and will greatly aid Minnesota by staying in the top-50. There are currently only 18 teams with more than three top-50 wins (all virtual locks for the Big Dance), so maintaining and adding wins in this category cannot be overstated.
Nebraska moving into RPI top-100. The Huskers are currently #106, and are the Gophers' only loss outside the top-100. If they can move up just 6 spots by March 15th, not only will the Gophers drop their only loss outside the top-100, they'll also add a top-100 win, which might in itself be enough to push them into the field. On Sunday, they'll have an even greater opportunity at Indiana. A win there would most certainly push Minnesota onto the inside of the bubble, with a 4th top-50 win, 6th conference win, and 4th consecutive win (6 of last 8).

It's a very quiet night in college basketball, and the Gophers have no season opponents in action. Below are a couple of non-Gophers-related games that might be interesting to watch tonight:
Arizona @ Washington - A loss for the Wildcats would likely cost them a seed-line, and would bump Washington back squarely into the bubble conversation.
Green Bay @ Valparaiso - Battle for Horizon League supremacy, the winner will be in the driver's seat for top conference tournament seed.

I'm not sure if I'll get a post up tomorrow morning, so if not, I want to give a heads up that 20 of the current top-25 teams in the AP poll are in action on Valentine's Day. The three biggest matchupes are:
Baylor @ Kansas - The Jayhawks will pad their already dominant SOS, and Baylor can move up to a 3-seed with a road win here.
West Virginia @ Iowa State - The cyclones have lost 2 of their last 3 and need to stop the bleeding, while the Mountaineers are entering an end-of-season gauntlet...their remaining games after Saturday are Kansas, @OK State, Texas, @Baylor, @Kansas, OK State. WVU has an opportunity to make a huge statement in the next three weeks!
Villanova @ Butler - Nova is precariously clinging to a #1 seed, and could really use another quality win to keep ahead of Duke & Wisconsin's resumes. Butler is on a roll, winning five straight, and this game might be their last chance to make a major statement before entering the Big East tournament.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Villanova
2's: Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, Utah
4's: Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Baylor, Butler
5's: Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Indiana
6's: VCU, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Wichita State
7's: Ohio State, SMU, Cincinnati, West Virginia
8's: Providence, San Diego State, Texas, Illinois
9's: Dayton, Colorado State, Iowa, Temple
10's: Ole Miss, Georgia, Oregon, Stanford
11's: Saint John's, Xavier, UCLA, Boise State, LSU
12's: Tulsa, Michigan State, Old Dominion, Green Bay, Wofford
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Bowling Green, Eastern Washington, Murray State
14's: Harvard, Iona, Georgia State, William & Mary
15's: High Point, North Carolina Central, Long Beach State, South Dakota State
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, Stony Brook, American, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Texas A&M, George Washington, Minnesota, Alabama
NFO: Seton Hall, Wyoming, Davidson, Syracuse

February 12, 2015

Virginia squeaked out a close one last night over NC State, and VCU lost a double OT thriller against La Salle.

Last night, four of six games went the Gophers' way, improving their post-season projections by a narrow margin. Tonight the Gophers have their greatest opportunity in a couple weeks to improve their own position for a late-season run. They had the Hawkeyes on the ropes when they played at the Barn a month ago, but a couple of clutch shots by Uthoff, a last second shot-clock malfunction, and a layup that was 0.2 seconds too late tiped the game in Iowa's favor. Aside from their own game, here are some other games tonight which have an impact on the Gophers.
-Purdue @ Rutgers - Although Minnesota is chasing Purdue in the standings, their win/loss total counts double due to an extra matchup against the Boilermakers.
-Western Carolina @ Mercer
-Montana @ North Dakota
-Seattle University @ New Mexico State
- @ VMI
-The Michigan @ illinois game will be a wash as Minnesota plays both teams once.

Of the five games, only one is favored in Minnesota's favor (Purdue). If we get one of the other four, I'd be a happy camper. It looks like it will be on the Gophers own shoulders to propel themselves towards the bubble tonight.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, Butler, Baylor, Utah
5's: Northern Iowa, Iowa State, VCU, Oklahoma State
6's: Arkansas, Indiana, Georgetown, Wichita State
7's: Ohio State, West Virginia, Iowa, SMU
8's: Colorado State, Cincinnati, Texas, Dayton
9's: Providence, San Diego State, Illinois, Temple
10's: Xavier, Ole Miss, Saint John's, Stanford
11's: LSU, Georgie, Oregon, Michigan State, Tulsa
12's: Old Dominion, Wofford, Texas A&M, UCLA, Green Bay
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Bowling Green, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, High Point, North Carolina Central, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Florida Gulf Coast, American, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Boise State, George Washington, Seton Hall, Wyoming
NFO: Alabama, Miami (FL), Massachusetts, North Carolina State

February 11, 2015

Close call for undefeated Kentucky last night, as they beat LSU by just two points. Their next few games should be a cakewalk, but the Wildcats will need to watch out for Arkansas and then a road game at Georgia after that. They then close out the regular season at home against Florida, who gave them some trouble when they played last week. I would still put my money on at least one loss before the end of the big dance, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them break the single season victory record of 38, currently held by 2008 Memphis and 2012 Kentucky.

This evening's games with implications for the Gophers are:
-Penn State @ Ohio State: A Penn State victory would benefit the Gophers as the Nittany Lions are on the schedule twice, compared to just one matchup against the Buckeyes.
-Pittsburgh @ Louisville
-Stony Brook @ UMBC
-DePaul @ Saint John's
-Georgia @ Texas A&M
-Miami (FL) @ Wake Forest
-The Indiana @ Maryland game will be a wash as Minnesota plays both teams once.

Of the six games, the Gophers would be fortunate to have three go their way. Four would be a stretch. It's unlikely that Penn State will put up a fight against Ohio State, and UMBC has little chance against Stony Brook. Wake Forest is a likely loss, and Georgia will be a tough game. Louisville and Saint John's swill both be heavily favored in their games.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, Notre Dame, North Carolina
4's: Baylor, Utah, Butler, Oklahoma
5's: Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Indiana, VCU,
6's: Arkansas, West Virginia, Wichita State, Ohio State
7's: SMU, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Iowa
8's: Colorado State, Texas, Providence, Cincinnati
9's: Dayton, Temple, San Diego State, Illinois
10's: Georgia, Ole Miss,Temple, Saint John's
11's: Stanford, LSU, Xavier, Wofford
12's: Oregon, Tulsa, George Washington, Michigan State, Old Dominion, Green Bay
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Harvard, Buffalo
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, High Point, North Carolina Central, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Florida Gulf Coast, American, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Miami (FL), Boise State, USLA, Wyoming
NFO: Seton Hall, North Carolina State, Rhode Island, Massachusetts

February 10, 2015

A couple of big wins out of the state of Oklahoma last night! Both the Sooners and Cowboys knocked off ranked opponents, and both climbed a seed line in today's projections.

I'm going to try and include a daily update on games that are most pertinent to the Gophers' tournament hopes. Both of tonight's Big10 games are between teams that Minnesota will play the same number of times - Michigan State & Northwestern once each, and Wisconsin and Nebraska twice each - although based on the standings it would be best to cheer for the Wildcats and Badgers tonight. The Gophers are one game behind Nebraska and two back of Michigan State. Surprisingly, aside from these two games, there are no other season opponents in action tonight. I'll update again tomorrow with games to watch.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona
3's: Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame
4's: Butler, Utah, Baylor, Oklahoma
5's: Northern Iowa, Indiana, VCU, Iowa State
6's: Arkansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Wichita State
7's: SMU, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Ohio State
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, iowa, Texas
9's: Providence, San Diego State, Georgia, Illinois
10's: Ole Miss, Xavier, Temple, Saint John's
11's: George Washington, Texas A&M, Tulsa, Old Dominion
12's: Oregon, LSU, Wofford, Stanford, Seton Hall, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, High Point, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Florida Gulf Coast, Lafayette, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Michigan State, Miami (FL), Boise State, Massachusetts
NFO: North Carolina State, Rhode Island, Davidson, UCLA

February 9, 2015

Here's an update of the Gophers' post-season hopes, with the remaining recipe for gaining a selection to the big dance. Ultimately, we can afford to lose only three more games between now and March 15th. Assuming one of those is a Big10 tournament knock-out loss, that means only two losses during the final seven regular season games. The good news is, Wisconsin is our only remaining opponent that has been dominant throughout the season. All others have shown some weaknesses that the Gophers could contend with.

2/12 @ #38 Iowa (15-8) - must win
2/15 @ #32 Indiana (17-7) - need to win either this game or the 26th @ Michigan State
2/18 vs. #157 Northwestern (10-13) - must win
2/21 @ #6 Wisconsin (21-2) - probably safe to chalk this one up as a loss...
2/26 @ #52 Michigan State (15-8) - need to win either this game or 15th @ Indiana
3/5 vs. #6 Wisconsin (21-2) - must win...or, sweep the three non-Wisconsin road games...pick your poison
3/8 vs. #93 Penn State (15-9) - must win
*3/11 vs. Big10 11-14 Seed, if seeded 11th-14th - must win
*3/12 vs. Big10 5-10 - must win if they didn't play on the 11th
*3/13 Big10 quarterfinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 12 losses
*3/14 Big10 semifinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 13 losses
*3/15 Big10 final - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 14+ losses

Based on the remaining schedule, I'll give the Gophers an 8:1 chance of playing in the NCAA Tourney. They've currently moved up to a #5 seed in my NIT projections, and would climb back onto the NCAA bubble with a win at Iowa on Thursday.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona
3's: Louisville, Notre Dame, Maryland, North Carolina
4's: Baylor, Butler, Iowa State, VCU
5's: Utah, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana
6's: Arkansas, Wichita State, West Virginia, SMU
7's: Ohio State, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Providence
8's: Texas, Dayton, Colorado State, Iowa
9's: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Old Dominion, Illinois
10's: Ole Miss, Saint John's, Georgia, Xavier
11's: Texas A&M, George Washington, LSU, Oregon
12's: Tulsa, Stanford, Temple, Seton Hall, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, High Point, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Lafayette, Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Michigan State, Wyoming, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: North Carolina State, UCLA, Rhode Island, Alabama

February 6, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, VCU, Notre Dame
4's: Butler, Baylor, North Carolina, Northern Iowa
5's: Utah, Arkansas, Iowa State, Wichita State
6's: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Indiana
7's: SMU, Ohio State, Colorado State, Providence
8's: Dayton, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, San Diego State
9's: Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Ole Miss
10's: Xavier, Old Dominion, Tulsa, Seton Hall
11's: LSU, Wyoming, Saint John's, UCLA
12's: Michigan State, Texas A&M, Wofford, Illinois, Oregon, Buffalo
13's: Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Yale, Iona, Long Beach State, High Point
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, William & Mary
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: George Washington, Temple, Stanford, Western Kentucky
NFO: Syracuse, Alabama, Miami (FL), Boise State

February 5, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Maryland, Notre Dame, Butler
4's: Baylor, VCU, Iowa State, Arkansas
5's: Utah, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
6's: West Virginia, Indiana, Oklahoma, Georgetown
7's: SMU, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Providence
8's: Georgia, Colorado State, San Diego State, Dayton
9's: Tulsa, Texas, LSU, Old Dominion
10's: Cincinnati, Stanford, Ole Miss, Seton Hall
11's: Wyoming, Texas A&M, Xavier, Iowa
12's: Michigan State, Saint John's, Illinois, Oregon, Wofford, Green Bay
13's: Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Iona, Yale, Long Beach State, Georgia State
15's: William & Mary, Stony Brook, North Carolina Central, High Point
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: George Washington, Temple, Western Kentucky, BYU
NFO: Davidson, UCLA, Syracuse, Boise State

February 4, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Villanova, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, Notre Dame, VCU, Butler
4's: Maryland, Baylor, North Carolina, Iowa State
5's: Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Wichita State, Utah
6's: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Indiana
7's: SMU, Ohio State, Colorado State, Dayton
8's: San Diego State, Providence, Texas, Old Dominion
9's: Oklahoma State, Xavier, Georgia, Texas A&M
10's: LSU, Seton Hall, Tulsa, Cincinnati
11's: Davidson, Iowa, Saint John's, Illinois
12's: Stanford, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Temple, Wofford, Green Bay
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Yale, Iona, Long Beach State, William & Mary
15's: Georgia State, Stony Brook, North Carolina Central, High Point
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: Wyoming, Washington, George Washington, Miami (FL)
NFO: Oregon, Boise State, UCLA, Western Kentucky

February 3, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Wisconsin
3's: Louisville, Notre Dame, Butler, VCU
4's: Maryland, North Carolina, West Virginia, Baylor
5's: Iowa State, Indiana, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
6's: Arkansas, Georgetown, Utah, Ohio State
7's: Oklahoma, SMU, San Diego STate, Seton Hall
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, Providence, Texas
9's: Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Tulsa, LSU
10's: Cincinnati, Georgia, Stanford, Oklahoma State
11's: Xavier, Saint John's, Iowa, Miami (FL)
12's: Michigan State, Tennessee, Illinois, North Carolina State, Wofford, Murray State
13's: Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo, Eastern Washington
14's: Long Beach State, Iona, Yale, William & Mary
15's: Georgia State, High Point, Stony Brook, North Carolina Central
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: Davidson, Ole Miss, George Washington, Wyoming
NFO: Washington, Temple, BYU, UCLA

February 2, 2015

It's been awhile since I've added much commentary to my updates, so here's a snapshot of the Gophers' post-season hopes entering February play. With eight regular season games remaining, Minnesota is 13-9; 3-7 in Big10 play. The likelihood of being awarded a tournament selection with 13 season losses is extremely low, especially with a SOS of 73. That should improve to the 40's by the end of the season, but still not high enough for a 13-loss tournament team. That means that the Gophers can afford to lose only three more games by March 15th in order to have a realistic chance of making the big dance. Let's take a quick peek at their remaining schedule:

2/7 vs. #79 Purdue (14-8) - must win
2/12 @ #52 Iowa (13-8) - must win
2/15 @ #35 Indiana (16-6) - need to win either this game or the 26th @ Michigan State
2/18 vs. #159 Northwestern (10-11) - must win
2/21 @ #8 Wisconsin (19-2) - probably safe to chalk this one up as a loss...
2/26 @ #37 Michigan State (15-7) - need to win either this game or 15th @ Indiana
3/5 vs. #8 Wisconsin (19-2) - must win...yeah, that's right......
3/8 vs. #100 Penn State (14-8) - must win
*3/11 vs. Big10 11-14 Seed, if seeded 11th-14th - must win
*3/12 vs. Big10 5-10 - must win if they didn't play on the 11th
*3/13 Big10 quarterfinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 12 losses
*3/14 Big10 semifinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 13 losses
*3/15 Big10 final - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 14+ losses

So, as you can see, the outlook is bleak. If I had to assign odds, I'd say we're looking at 10:1 at this point. It's really amazing looking back at those first handful of Big10 games, how much of a difference one or two possessions makes down the stretch. One more basket against Ohio State and another 0.3 seconds against Iowa, and we might be looking at a 50-50 shot of tournament play.

On the bright side, the Gophs got a shot at defending our NIT title. Right now I've got them pegged as a 7-seed, so they may need to pick up some slack to even earn an invite back to that tournament.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Kansas
2's: Arizona, Villanova, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Louisville, VCU, Maryland, Notre Dame
4's: Butler, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, West Virginia
5's: Wichita State, Baylor, Iowa State, Georgetown
6's: Indiana, Arkansas, Utah, Ohio State
7's: Oklahoma, SMU, Seton Hall, Colorado State
8's: San Diego State, Dayton, Old Dominion, Texas
9's: Providence, Texas A&M, Tulsa, LSU
10's: Georgia, Stanford, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati
11's: Xavier, Davidson, Saint John's, Iowa
12's: Wofford, Tennessee, George Washington, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Iona, Yale, Long Beach State, William & Mary
15's: Georgia STate, North Carolina Central, High Point, Stony Brook
16's: South Dakota State, Texas Southern, Lafayette, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: North Carolina State, Temple, Wyoming, Illinois
NFO: Washington, Rhode Island, Western Kentucky, Syracuse

January 30, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Wisconsin
3's: VCU, Notre Dame, Wichita State, North Carolina
4's: Maryland, Arkansas, Louisville, Iowa State
5's: West Virginia, Utah, Butler, Cincinnati
6's: Baylor, Georgetown, Providence, Northern Iowa
7's: Indiana, SMU, Ohio State, LSU
8's: Texas, Georgia, Colorado State, Dayton
9's: San Diego State, Stanford, BYU, Oklahoma
10's: Oklahoma State, Davidson, Texas A&M, Miami (FL)
11's: Iowa, Xavier, Michigan State, Washington, Seton Hall
12's: Old Dominion, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Wofford, Green Bay
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo, Murray State, Eastern Washington
14's: Iona, Yale, Long Beach State, North Carolina State
15's: High Point, William & Mary, Georgia State, Stony Brook
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: Tulsa, George Washington, North Carolina State, Wyoming
NFO: Boise State, Saint John's, Saint Mary's College, Temple

January 29, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Gonzaga
2's: Arizona, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin
3's: VCU, Maryland, Notre Dame, Wichita State
4's: North Carolina, Utah, Louisville, Arkansas
5's: West Virginia, Butler, Iowa State, Dayton
6's: Northern Iowa, Cincinnati, Baylor, Indiana
7's: Georgetown, Providence, SMU, LSU
8's: Georgia, Texas, Stanford, San Diego State
9's: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Davidson
10's: Colorado State, Oklahoma, Miami (FL), Seton Hall
11's: Iowa, Xavier, Tennessee, Tulsa
12's: Old Dominion, Michigan State, Washington, Boise State, Western Kentucky, Wofford
13's: Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo, Murray State
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, Yale, Long Beach State
15's: William & Mary, Stony Brook, High Point, Georgia State
16's: South Dakota State, Lafayette, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: George Washington, Ole Miss, Temple, Saint Mary's College
NFO: Saint John's, Wyoming, North Carolina State, Illinois

January 28, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Gonzaga, Villanova, Arizona, VCU
3's: Wisconsin, Maryland, Wichita State, North Carolina
4's: Utah, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisville
5's: Butler, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Indiana
6's: Georgetown, Baylor, Northern Iowa, Dayton
7's: SMU, Cincinnati, Texas, Providence
8's: San Diego State, LSU, Georgia, Miami (FL)
9's: Colorado State, Davidson, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
10's: Stanford, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Tulsa
11's: Saint John's, Iowa, North Carolina State, Xavier, Seton Hall
12's: Old Dominion, Washington, Tennessee, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Eastern Washington, Murray State
14's: Yale, Iona, Long Beach State, North Carolina Central
15's: Northeastern, Stony Brook, High Point, Georgia State
16's: South Dakota State, American, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: George Washington, Michigan State, Illinois, Western Kentucky
NFO: Saint Mary's College, Ole Miss, Boise State, Temple

January 27, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
2's: Villanova, Gonzaga, VCU, Arizona
3's: Wisconsin, Utah, Maryland, Wichita State
4's: North Carolina, Georgetown, Butler, Louisville
5's: Arkansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Indiana
6's: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Cincinnati
7's: Providence, Dayton, SMU, LSU
8's: San Diego State, Texas, Georgia, Miami (FL)
9's: Colorado State, Ohio State, Stanford, Texas A&M
10's: Davidson, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Washington
11's: Seton Hall, Saint John's, Old Dominion, Xavier
12's: Tulsa, Iowa, Saint Mary's College, George Washington, Wofford, Green Bay
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, Eastern Washington, Buffalo
14's: Iona, Yale, Northeastern, High Point
15's: Long Beach State, Stony Brook, Georgia State, North Carolina Central
16's: South Dakota State, American, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: Tennessee, North Carolina State, Wyoming, Illinois
NFO: Alabama, Michigan State, Western Kentucky, Ole Miss

January 26, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Villanova
2's: Gonzaga, Duke, VCU, Arizona
3's: Wisconsin, Wichita State, North Carolina, Maryland
4's: Utah, Louisville, Georgetown, Butler
5's: West Virginia, Notre Dame, Baylor, Arkansas
6's: Indiana, Iowa State, Dayton, SMU
7's: Providence, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Texas
8's: Cincinnati, LSU, San Diego State, Georgia
9's: Ohio State, Stanford, Oklahoma, Miami (FL)
10's: Texas A&M, Davidson, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall
11's: Washington, Saint John's, Tulsa, Wyoming, Iowa
12's: Old Dominion, George Washington, Tennessee, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Murray State, Eastern Washington, Buffalo
14's: Iona, Yale, High Point, Northeastern
15's: Long Beach State, Stony Brook, Georgia State, North Carolina Central
16's: American, South Dakota State, Texas Southern, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Francis (PA), New Mexico State

FFO: North Carolina State, Xavier, Alabama, Old Miss
NFO: Saint Mary's College, Illinois, Western Kentucky, Michigan State

January 20, 2015

Slight change with Automiatic qualifiers, several are now ranked by regression/resume, with the bottom 12 or so still based on RPI alone. Eventually all will be ranked based on regression/resume - probably starting in early/mid February.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Villanova
2's: Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona
3's: Maryland, VCU, Wichita State, Iowa State
4's: Utah, West Virginia, Northern Iowa, Texas
5's: Georgetown, North Carolina, Butler, Seton Hall
6's: Notre Dame, Dayton, Louisville, Baylor
7's: SMU, Arkansas, Indiana, San Diego State
8's: Old Dominion, Stanford, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
9's: Oklahoma State, Georgia, Saint John's, North Carolina State
10's: Providence, Colorado State, Iowa, Washington
11's: George Washington, Tulsa, LSU, Davidson
12's: Michigan State, Xavier, Tennessee, Ohio State, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Stephen F. Austin, Harvard, Eastern Washington, Green Bay
14's: High Point, Long Beach State, Iona, North Carolina Central
15's: William & Mary, American, Stony Brook, Eastern Illinois
16's: Georgia State, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (PA), South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast

FFO: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Alabama, Saint Mary's College
NFO: Syracuse, Wyoming, BYU, Ole Miss

January 16, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Kansas
2's: Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin, Wichita State
3's: VCU, West Virginia, Maryland, Iowa State
4's: Utah, Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisville
5's: Baylor, Seton Hall, Arizona, Notre Dame
6's: Dayton, SMU, Butler, Old Dominion
7's: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Saint John's, Indiana
8's: San Diego State, Colorado State, Texas, LSU
9's: Stanford, Georgetown, Michigan State, George Washington
10's: Tulsa, Providence, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
11's: Georgia, Davidson, Ohio State, Miami (FL)
12's: Alabama, Syracuse, Iowa, North Carolina State,Eastern Washington, Harvard
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Long Beach State, Northeastern
14's: Iona, Green Bay, Stony Brook, High Point
15's: Lafayette, Murray State, Texas Southern, Incarnate Word
16's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Saint Francis (PA), South Dakota State, New Mexico State, South Carolina Upstate

FFO: Washington, Xavier, Tennessee, Illinois
NFO: BYU, Temple, Loyola-Chicago, Wyoming

January 15, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Kansas
2's: Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin, VCU
3's: Wichita State, Maryland, West Virginia, Arkansas
4's: Iowa State, Utah, North Carolina, Arizona
5's: Butler, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Louisville
6's: Dayton, Baylor, SMU, Saint John's
7's: Northern Iowa, Colorado State, San Diego State, Indiana
8's: Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, LSU
9's: Stanford, Texas, Davidson, Georgetown
10's: Michigan State, Miami (FL), Oklahoma, Georgia
11's: Providence, Tulsa, Alabama, Wofford
12's: Ohio State, George Washington, Iowa, Syracuse, North Carolina State, Eastern Washington
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Harvard, Northeastern
14's: Iona, Long Beach State, High Point, Stony Brook
15's: Lafayette, Incarnate Word, Texas Southern, North Carolina Central
16's: Georgia State, Saint Francis (PA), Murray State, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast

FFO: Tennessee, Xavier, Illinois, Temple
NFO: Loyola-Chicago, Washington, BYU, Connecticut

January 14, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Kansas
2's: Gonzaga, Duke, Wichita State, Wisconsin
3's: VCU, West Virginia, Iowa State, Utah
4's: Maryland, Arkansas, Seton Hall, Louisville
5's: Dayton, Arizona, Old Dominion, Notre Dame
6's: Colorado State, Northern Iowa, Butler, North Carolina
7's: Baylor, SMU, Indiana, Texas
8's: Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, San Diego State, LSU
9's: Georgetown, George Washington, Providence, Saint John's
10's: North Carolina State, Michigan State, Stanford, Tulsa
11's: Alabama, Wofford, Ohio State, Oklahoma
12's: Syracuse, Davidson, Iowa, Xavier, Miami (FL), Green Bay
13's: Harvard, Buffalo, Eastern Washington, Iona
14's: Stony Brook, Northeastern, Long Beach State, Lafayette
15's: Incarnate Word, Murray State, North Carolina Central, Georgia State
16's: Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern, High Point, South Dakota State, Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State

FFO: Wyoming, Tennessee, Georgia, Temple
NFO: Bowling Green, Loyola-Chicago, Illinois, BYU

January 12, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Seton Hall
3's: Utah, VCU, Arizona, Maryland
4's: Wichita State, West Virginia, Dayton, Arkansas
5's: Iowa State, Old Dominion, Louisville, Northern Iowa
6's: North Carolina, Baylor, Butler, Notre Dame
7's: Texas, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Colorado State
8's: SMU, George Washington, Providence, Stanford
9's: San Diego State, Saint John's, Georgia, Georgetown
10's: North Carolina State, Michigan State, Davidson, Wofford
11's: Ohio State, Indiana, Oklahoma State, Alabama
12's: LSU, Syracuse, Wyoming, Xavier, Temple, Green Bay
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Iona, Eastern Washington
14's: Stony Brook, Northeastern, Long Beach State, Incarnate Word br>15's: North Carolina Central, Lafayette, Georgia State, Saint Francis (PA)
16's: Murray State, High Point, Texas Southern, South Dakota State, Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State

FFO: BYU, Washington, Iowa, Illinois
NFO: Tulsa, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech, Saint Mary's

January 7, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Gonzaga, Seton Hall
3's: Arizona, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Maryland
4's: Wichita State, Utah, VCU, Louisville
5's: Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Dayton, Baylor
6's: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Stanford, Arkansas
7's: Colorado STate, George Washington, Texas, North Carolina
8's: LSU, Georgia, Washington, Butler
9's: Cincinnati, BYU, Saint John's, San Diego State
10's:Temple, Ohio State, Providence, Iowa
11's: Wofford, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Davidson
12's: Georgia Tech, SME, Alabama, North Carolina State, Michigan State, Green Bay
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Incarnate Word, Stony Brook
14's: Lafayette, North Carolina Central, Iona, Georgia State
15's: Eastern Washington, Long Beach State, High Point, Saint Francis (PA)
16's: William & Mary, Belmont, Texas Southern, South Carolina Upstate, South Dakota State, New Mexico State

FFO: UNLV, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Indiana
NFO: Penn State, Syracuse, UTEP, Illinois

January 6, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas, Seton Hall
3's: Old Dominion, West Virginia, Arizona, Maryland
4's: Wichita State, Utah, VCU, Oklahoma
5's: Colorado State, Dayton, Northern Iowa, Louisville
6's: Notre Dame, Stanford, Baylor, Georgia
7's: George Washington, Butler, Texas, Saint John's
8's: Arkansas, Cincinnati, LSU, North Carolina
9's: Iowa State, Washington, Georgia Tech, San Diego State
10's: Temple, Wofford, Oklahoma State, Davidson
11's: Providence, Georgetown, BYU, Ohio State
12's: Penn State, North Carolina State, SMU, Iowa, Michigan State, Green Bay
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Incarnate Word, Lafayette
14's: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Eastern Washington, Georgia State
15's: Long Beach State, Iona, High Point, Saint Francis (PA)
16's: William & Mary, Belmont, Texas Southern, South Carolina Upstate, South Dakota State, New Mexico State

FFO: UNLV, Xavier, Indiana, Vanderbilt
NFO: Tennessee, Texas A&M, Rhode Island, Minnesota

January 5, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas, Seton Hall
3's: Old Dominion, Arizona, West Virginia, Wichita State
4's: VCU, Maryland, Utah, Texas
5's: Northern Iowa, Louisville, Dayton, North Carolina
6's: Colorado State, Saint John's, George Washington, Oklahoma
7's: Stanford, Cincinnati, Georgia, Iowa State
8's: Baylor, Butler, Arkansas, LSU
9's: Notre Dame, Washington, Temple, BYU
10's: Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Georgetown, Davidson
11's: Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Green Bay, Penn State
12's: North Carolina State, Providence, Indiana, Iowa, SMU, Wofford
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Georgia State, Incarnate Word
14's: North Carolina Central, Northeastern, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
15's: Lafayette, Eastern Washington, Iona, High Point
16's: Saint Francis (PA), Belmont, Texas Southern, South Carolina Upstate, South Dakota State, New Mexico State

FFO: Rhode Island, Xavier, UTEP, UNLV
NFO: Tulsa, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Central Michigan

January 2, 2015

Both Gophers teams failed to secure a victory over the New Years holiday. The basketball team squandered a double digit lead with less than ten minutes left, allowing Purdue to score eight straight points to tie the game after leading 58-50 with eight minutes remaining. With the score tied and less than three minutes remaining, the Gophers could not make shots when it counted, and made a couple disastrous turnovers in the waning moments to secure the loss. Unfortunately they don't have much time to wallow in defeat, as they visit the 13-1 Terrapins on Saturday. This game will be a much tougher test than Purdue, as Maryland has already beaten a couple top-50 opponents, and their only loss is to an undefeated Virginia team that's currently Kentucky's closest competition for the #1 overall seed.

Gopher football gave it the old college try, but they were really outmanned in Orlando yesterday. They managed to keep the game close in the first three quarters, but Missouri really controlled all phases of the game in the fourth quarter and pulled away for good.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Arizona
3's: West Virginia, Wichita State, Utah, VCU
4's: Old Dominion, Seton Hall, Saint John's, Maryland
5's: Colorado State, LSU, Baylor, Dayton
6's: San Diego State, Northern Iowa, Washington, Louisville
7's: Texas, Georgia, George Washington, Iowa State
8's: North Carolina, Arkansas, Penn State, Providence
9's: Butler, Oklahoma, BYU, Temple
10's: Georgia Tech, Xavier, Stanford, Cincinnati
11's: Green Bay, Notre Dame, Georgetown, TCU
12's: Davidson, UNLV, Oklahoma State, SMU, Indiana
13's: Buffalo, Wofford, Harvard, Lafayette, Incarnate Word
14's: Eastern Washington, Georgia State, Northeastern, Stony Brook
15's: Long Beach State, Gardner-Webb, North Carolina Central, Saint Francis (PA)
16's: Iona, Murray State, Texas Southern, South Dakota State, Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State

FFO: Evansville, UTEP, Boise State, Tulsa
NFO: Alabama, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Minnesota