I hesitate to publish a bracket with significant deviations from most other bracketologists, but hopefully a quick explanation of my method will make sense. As preparation for Selection Sunday, I don't do any forward-looking projection for how teams will perform after today. My bracket is always based on "if selection occurred today". With that said, you'll see some noteable absences, which I'll try to address below.
More specifically, my method uses a regression formula based on prior years' seeding to initially rank teams based on the most significant resume metrics. I then apply some high-level subjective shuffling to arrive at my final list. Due to time constraints, I generally do not apply the nuanced seeding rules until my final bracket, so I only list the projected seed without predicting specific matchups.
One final note- the new NET ranking system is just in it's second year of use, so there isn't yet much historical precedent for how to interpret past seeding. While the RPI and NET numbers seemed to converge toward the end of the season last year (especially for at-large teams), the differences tend to be more drastic earlier in the season. This contributes to my early-season predictions not lining up with more traditional forward-looking brackets.
1 seeds: West Virginia, Kansas, Sam Diego State, Butler
2 seeds: Duke, Auburn, Maryland, Ohio State
3 seeds: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Gonzaga
4 seeds: Louisville, Wichita State, Michigan, Dayton
5 seeds: Memphis, Penn State, Iowa, Villanova
6 seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Colorado, Arkansas
7 seeds: Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Indiana
8 seeds: Stanford, Xavier, Marquette, Arizona
9 seeds: Oklahoma, BYU, Washington, Virginia
10 seeds: Saint Mary's, Seton Hall, NC State, Liberty
11 seeds: DePaul, USC, Temple, Rutgers
12 seeds: Miami FL, Arizona State, Utah State, Saint John's, George Mason, Yale
13 seeds: East TN State, SF Austin, Kent State, Vermont
14 seeds: Eastern Washington, Louisiana Tech, Wright State, Arkansas State
15 seeds: Saint Francis (PA), Rider, Delaware, Belmont
16 seeds: Lafayette, UCSB, ND State, Campbell, Copping State, Alabama A&M
First four out: Saint Louis, Houston, Minnesota, Florida
Next four out: Utah, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Tennessee
More specifically, my method uses a regression formula based on prior years' seeding to initially rank teams based on the most significant resume metrics. I then apply some high-level subjective shuffling to arrive at my final list. Due to time constraints, I generally do not apply the nuanced seeding rules until my final bracket, so I only list the projected seed without predicting specific matchups.
One final note- the new NET ranking system is just in it's second year of use, so there isn't yet much historical precedent for how to interpret past seeding. While the RPI and NET numbers seemed to converge toward the end of the season last year (especially for at-large teams), the differences tend to be more drastic earlier in the season. This contributes to my early-season predictions not lining up with more traditional forward-looking brackets.
1 seeds: West Virginia, Kansas, Sam Diego State, Butler
2 seeds: Duke, Auburn, Maryland, Ohio State
3 seeds: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Gonzaga
4 seeds: Louisville, Wichita State, Michigan, Dayton
5 seeds: Memphis, Penn State, Iowa, Villanova
6 seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Colorado, Arkansas
7 seeds: Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Indiana
8 seeds: Stanford, Xavier, Marquette, Arizona
9 seeds: Oklahoma, BYU, Washington, Virginia
10 seeds: Saint Mary's, Seton Hall, NC State, Liberty
11 seeds: DePaul, USC, Temple, Rutgers
12 seeds: Miami FL, Arizona State, Utah State, Saint John's, George Mason, Yale
13 seeds: East TN State, SF Austin, Kent State, Vermont
14 seeds: Eastern Washington, Louisiana Tech, Wright State, Arkansas State
15 seeds: Saint Francis (PA), Rider, Delaware, Belmont
16 seeds: Lafayette, UCSB, ND State, Campbell, Copping State, Alabama A&M
First four out: Saint Louis, Houston, Minnesota, Florida
Next four out: Utah, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Tennessee
