Drew's Bracketology - A peek behind the curtain

I thought it might be interesting to provide some insight into my seeding process for those who take the time to visit my bracketology blog.

First, I import team-by-team data from WarrenNolan.com for a little fewer than half of the 351 Div-I teams.  Notice Princeton and Mount St. Mary's are missing a few columns.  Once conference champs are determined in early March, I'll include all those teams in my data pull.

Next, I sort the teams based on a regression formula created from at-large seeding over the last five years.  With that as my starting point, I slide teams up and down a few spots as applicable based on the columns below as well as a few other resume criteria.  

Challenges arise when you look at resumes of teams like Butler and North Carolina with a solid list of quality wins but also multiple losses outside the top-100.  On the flip side, there are teams like Wisconsin and UNC Wilmington who have great records with no bad losses, but mediocre schedules that lack any top-50 quality victories.

As I apply manual adjustments to my at-large seed list, I keep in mind some historical precedents.   Going back at least five years, a team with an RPI better than 28 hasn't been excluded from the at-large field (welcome to the dance, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, & UNC Wilmington).  Similarly, a team with an RPI worse than 73 hasn't received an at-large bid (sorry, Michigan & Indiana).  There are other historical considerations around SOS and wins/losses that I'll apply later in the season, but at this point many of the major conference schools are still suffering from a poor non-conference SOS that will improve with conference play between now and March.

Finally, after seeding the at-large teams and FFO/NFO, I pull in the sub-12 seed conference winners.  At this point in the season I apply very little scrutiny here, and typically just include the team with the best RPI.  A bit further into conference play, I usually switch to the conference record leader.  On Selection Sunday those teams will already be determined so it's just about ranking them accurately.  At that point I will compare resumes a bit closer to try and nail down the correct seed line for as many teams as possible.  There are a lot of Paymon points available down there!

That's pretty much it.  Feel free to hit me up with questions or [constructive] criticism in the comments.

Team	Rank	W	L	RPI	SOS	Top-25 W	Top-50 W	Top-100W	Sub-100L	Last10
Baylor	1	14	0	2	12	3	5	9	0	10
Villanova	2	15	1	1	5	3	5	10	0	9
Florida State	3	15	1	11	35	4	6	8	0	10
Creighton	4	15	1	6	21	0	5	7	0	9
Kansas	5	14	1	4	14	1	3	9	1	10
Gonzaga	6	15	0	13	75	2	2	5	0	10
Minnesota	7	15	2	5	8	0	4	8	0	9
Kentucky	8	13	2	8	9	1	4	6	0	8
Oregon	9	14	2	10	20	1	2	6	0	10
Duke	10	14	2	15	37	1	3	5	0	9
Florida	11	12	3	3	1	0	3	7	0	7
Butler	12	14	2	7	18	3	4	9	2	8
Xavier	13	13	2	12	30	1	2	4	0	8
Notre Dame	14	14	2	25	59	1	4	5	0	8
UCLA	15	16	1	21	121	1	2	4	0	9
Louisville	16	13	3	9	3	1	2	4	0	8
Saint Marys College	17	14	1	20	74	1	2	3	0	9
Arizona	18	15	2	14	33	0	1	5	0	9
Cincinnati	19	13	2	17	48	0	1	6	0	9
Virginia	20	12	3	18	16	2	2	5	0	7
SMU	21	14	3	29	64	0	3	4	0	10
Purdue	22	14	3	30	44	1	2	4	0	9
Maryland	23	13	2	35	60	0	1	5	0	8
North Carolina	24	13	3	16	28	0	3	8	2	7
Clemson	25	11	4	33	29	2	4	7	1	8
West Virginia	26	13	2	40	126	1	3	4	0	9
Northwestern	27	13	4	44	57	2	3	4	0	8
USC	28	15	2	32	93	0	1	2	0	8
Arkansas	29	12	3	26	42	0	1	3	0	8
Dayton	30	11	3	23	23	0	1	5	0	9
Seton Hall	31	12	3	38	61	0	1	3	0	8
TCU	32	11	3	36	49	0	1	3	0	7
Virginia Tech	33	12	3	48	104	1	3	4	1	8
Virginia Commonwealth	34	13	3	31	50	1	1	4	1	8
North Carolina State	35	12	4	27	31	0	1	3	0	7
Middle Tennessee	36	12	3	19	25	1	2	5	1	8
South Carolina	37	11	3	37	45	0	0	4	1	7
Wisconsin	38	13	3	49	127	0	0	3	0	9
Pittsburgh	39	12	4	28	22	1	2	5	2	7
UNC Wilmington	40	13	2	24	90	0	0	2	0	9
Michigan State	41	11	6	34	7	1	2	5	0	7
Rhode Island	42	10	5	41	32	1	1	2	0	6
Ole Miss	43	10	5	39	13	0	0	3	0	6
Texas Tech	44	12	3	61	159	0	1	2	0	8
Wake Forest	45	10	6	22	6	0	0	3	0	5
Georgia	46	9	5	51	24	0	0	3	0	6
Iowa State	47	10	4	63	72	0	0	2	1	6
Kansas State	47.1	13	2	52	177	0	0	0	0	8
Miami (FL)	47.2	11	3	70	166	0	1	2	1	7
Indiana	47.3	11	5	109	95	2	3	3	1	6
Michigan	47.4	11	5	86	85	0	1	3	1	6
Illinois	47.5	10	5	43	19	0	2	3	2	7
Oklahoma State	47.6	9	5	54	46	0	0	2	1	5
California	47.7	11	5	64	47	0	1	1	1	6
Houston	47.8	12	4	66	128	0	1	2	1	7
Oakland	48	12	3	65	162	0	0	2	0	8
Nevada	49	14	3	42	118	0	0	2	1	9
UTA	50	10	4	45	102	1	1	2	1	9
Akron	51	11	3	67	218	0	0	1	1	8
Chattanooga	52	10	4	74	200	0	0	2	1	8
Illinois State	53	11	4	46	79	0	0	1	3	8
New Mexico State	54	13	2	84	310	0	0	1	2	10
Florida Gulf Coast	55	9	5	75	120	0	1	1	1	8
Vermont	56	11	5	78	161	0	0	0	0	7
Belmont	57	9	4	107	214	0	0	0	0	8
Monmouth	58	12	5	68	147	0	0	2	3	7
Bucknell	59	12	5	89	221	0	0	1	2	7
UNC Asheville	60	9	6	76	129	0	0	0	2	6
North Dakota State	61	9	5	108	197	0	0	1	3	6
Princeton	62	7	6	116	134
North Carolina Central	63	6	5	114	215	0	0	0	2	6
Texas Southern	64	7	9	59	54	0	0	1	1	3
Eastern Washington	65	8	6	131	171	0	0	0	3	6
Nicholls State	66	5	7	92	62	0	0	0	2	4
UC Irvine	67	7	9	158	98	0	0	0	3	4
Mount Saint Mary's	68	5	12	173	82

January 9, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Florida State, Creighton
2's: Kansas, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Kentucky
3's: Oregon, Duke, Florida, Butler
4's: Xavier, Notre Dame, UCLA, Louisville
5's: Saint Mary's, Arizona, Cincinnati, Virginia
6's: SMU, Purdue, Maryland, North Carolina
7's: Clemson, West Virginia, Northwestern, USC
8's: Arkansas, Dayton, Seton Hall, TCU
9's: Virginia Tech, VCU, North Carolina State, Middle Tennessee
10's: South Carolina, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, UNC Wilmington
11's: Michigan State, Rhode Island, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Wake Forest
12's: Georgia, Iowa State, Oakland, Nevada, UTA
13's: Akron, Chattanooga, Illinois State, New Mexico State
14's: Florida Gulf Coast, Vermont, Belmont, Monmouth
15's: Bucknell, UNC Asheville, North Dakota State, Princeton
16's: North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, Eastern Washington, Nicholls State, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Kansas State, Miami (FL), Indiana, Michigan
NFO: Illinois, Oklahoma State, California, Houston

January 7, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Florida State, Kansas
2's: Creighton, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Oregon
3's: Kentucky, Duke, Florida, Xavier
4's: Butler, UCLA, Saint Mary's, Louisville
5's: Notre Dame, USC, Clemson, Cincinnati
6's: Arizona, TCU, Arkansas, Virginia
7's: Maryland, SMU, Dayton, North Carolina
8's: Northwestern, Middle Tennessee, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
9's: Seton Hall, Illinois, South Carolina, Michigan State
10's: Pittsburgh, VCU, Purdue, Wisconsin
11's: Rhode Island, UTA, UNC Wilmington, Wake Forest
12's: OIe Miss, Georgia, Michigan, Nebraska, Oakland, Nevada
13's: Akron, New Mexico State, Chattanooga, Vermont
14's: Illinois State, Florida Gulf Coast, Belmont, Monmouth
15's: Bucknell, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington, UNC Asheville
16's: Nicholls State, North Carolina Central, Pennsylvania, Texas Southern, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: LSU, Kansas State, UCF, Houston
NFO: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Miami (FL), Providence

January 5, 2017

Quick bracket update.  This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Florida State, Kansas
2's: Gonzaga, Creighton, Oregon, Kentucky
3's: Minnesota, Xavier, Duke, Florida
4's: Butler, Notre Dame, UCLA, Arizona
5's: Louisville, Cincinnati, TCU, Clemson
6's: Saint Mary's, Virginia, Maryland, USC
7's: Arkansas, SMU, Pittsburgh, North Carolina
8's: Northwestern, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, North Carolina State
9's: Dayton, Illinois, Michigan State, Seton Hall
10's: UNC Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, VCU, South Carolina
11's: Wisconsin, Purdue, UTA, Rhode Island
12's: Wake Forest, Michigan, Providence, Iowa State, Valparaiso, Nevada
13's: Akron, New Mexico State, Samford, Florida Gulf Coast
14's: Illinois State, Vermont, Bucknell, Monmouth
15's: Tennessee State, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington, UNC Asheville
16's: Pennsylvania, Nicholls State, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: LSU, Charleston, Ole Miss, Miami (FL)
NFO: Ohio State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Arkansas State

January 3, 2017 *1st official 2017 bracket*

With conference schedules underway, the bracket is starting to take shape.  Reminder: my bracket is created as if Selection Sunday were today.  These are not projections of where I believe these teams will be seeded on March 12th.  I'm fully aware there are a handful of notable exclusions and inclusions that may work themselves in/out as the season proceeds.

The Gophers are off to a decent start in the Big Ten season.  After two games and two overtimes, the cardiac kids are 1-1, with a tough loss to Michigan State and a great win over Purdue on Sunday in West Lafayette.  At this point, the countdown to lock up a selection stands at just 7 more wins, although with a couple more quality road wins they may be able to get in with 19 or even 18 total wins.  At 13-2, reaching 18-20 wins seems like a pretty likely result, so the question now is whether they can get to 21 or more with a few more quality wins and improve their seeding.  

SOS will continue to provide a huge boost to the Gophers' RPI. The end-of-season SOS will almost certainly fall between 5-35, based on the records of their remaining opponents.  Depending on the number of quality wins they can collect in the next ten weeks, a 3- or 4-seed is well within reach, with a likely downside in the range of a 9- to 11-seed.  

I'll end my [homer] speculating there, and move on with my bracket as of last night's games.

1's: Villanova, Baylor, Florida State, Creighton
2's: Kansas, Gonzaga, Xavier, Kentucky
3's: Oregon, Minnesota, Duke, Louisville
4's: Clemson, Virginia, Florida, UCLA
5's: Arizona, Saint Mary's, USC, West Virginia
6's: Virginia Tech, TCU, Maryland, Cincinnati
7's: Notre Dame, Butler, Arkansas, SMU
8's: Northwestern, Seton Hall, Purdue, VCU
9's: Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Illinois, UNC Wilmington
10's: Miami (FL), Dayton, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee
11's: Wisconsin, UTA, Oklahoma State, South Carolina
12's: UCF, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Ole Miss, Valparaiso, New Mexico State
13's: Akron, Nevada, Illinois State, Samford
14's: Vermont, Florida Gulf Coast, Nicholls State, Eastern Washington
15's: Bucknell, Monmouth, North Dakota State, UNC Asheville
16's: North Carolina Central, Pennsylvania, Jacksonville State, Texas Southern, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Georgia, Providence, Temple, Nebraska
NFO: Rhode Island, Indiana, Charleston, LSU