January 19, 2021

I'm always hesitant to post my first bracket each year, because I know my methods generally don't align with early-to-mid season forward-looking selection predictions. It seems like I say this every year, but this year feels way weirder - for obvious reasons. 

Adding to my normal first-bracket jitters is the fact I have watched almost zero college basketball this year, with the exception of parts of maybe 5 Gophers games. In some ways, this is actually a benefit, as my bracket becomes almost a de facto "blind" bracket. But in reality, the Eye Test does influence the committee, as well as other bracketologists, and therefore means some of the seeds below are going to be vary significantly from other experts' picks at this point. 

One last note - because some teams have played far fewer games than others, I tried to apply some creative smoothing to some of the metrics, like quality wins and bad losses. Essentially I'm trying to ensure that 2 quality wins out of 7 games played reflects in my ratings similarly to 4 quality wins out of 14 games played.

With those caveats in mind, here's what I think seeds look like if the season ended today.

1 seeds: Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor, Houston
2 seeds: Texas, Iowa, Tennessee, Ohio State
3 seeds: Kansas, Clemson, Villanova, Missouri
4 seeds: Colorado, Wisconsin, USC, Minnesota
5 seeds: Alabama, West Virginia, Illinois, BYU
6 seeds: LSU, Virginia, Florida State, Oklahoma State
7 seeds: Drake, UCLA, Texas Tech, Boise State
8 seeds: Xavier, Virginia Tech, Saint Louis, Purdue
9 seeds: Creighton, Louisville, San Diego State, Connecticut
10 seeds: Oregon, Arizona, Wichita State, Richmond
11 seeds: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Maryland, Rutgers, North Carolina
12 seeds: Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Winthrop, Saint Bonaventure, Siena
13 seeds: Furman, UAB, Bowling Green, Navy
14 seeds: Belmont, Bryant, Cleveland State, Sam Houston State
15 seeds: Northeastern, Texas State, UC Irvine, UMBC
16 seeds: Montana State, South Dakota, Utah Valley, Southern, Jacksonville, North Carolina A&T

First four out: Georgia State, Florida, VCU, Colorado State
Next four out: SMU, Utah State, Stanford, Marquette

March 15, 2020 - Final Bracket

Just a couple weeks ago, I couldn't have imagined I'd spend my Selection Sunday tracking and analyzing COVID-19 data rather than NCAA resume data. Rather than being immersed in the Big Ten championship game and Selection show, I spent my afternoon following updates on emergency shutdown measures and making contingency plans for the upcoming days and weeks.

Following the announcement of tournament cancellation, there were hopes the committee would still release their bracket, however a decision was rightly made that more important matters needed those individuals' urgent attention. We'll never know how accurate these predictions are, but for the sake of posterity, here is my final bracket.

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Creighton, Villanova, Duke, San Diego State
3 seeds: Maryland, Michigan State, Florida State, Louisville
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Oregon, Kentucky, Butler
5 seeds: Auburn, West Virginia, Ohio State, Arizona
6 seeds: BYU, Wisconsin, Houston, Michigan
7 seeds: LSU, Colorado, Iowa, Penn State
8 seeds: Illinois, Marquette, Florida, Virginia
9 seeds: Saint Mary's College, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Providence
10 seeds: Richmond, Wichita State, East Tennessee State, Utah State
11 seeds: USC, Oklahoma, Stanford, Arizona State, Xavier
12 seeds: Arkansas, Indiana, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Yale
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Belmont, Bradley, Northern Colorado, Hofstra
15 seeds: Texas State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Winthrop
16 seeds: Siena, Northern Kentucky, Boston University, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central

First four out: Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Saint Louis, North Carolina State
Next four out: Cincinnati, Purdue, Texas, Memphis

February 28, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: San Diego State, Florida State, Creighton, Maryland
3 seeds: Villanova, Seton Hall, Duke, Oregon
4 seeds: Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan State, Butler 
5 seeds: Penn State, Colorado, West Virginia, Auburn
6 seeds: Ohio State, Marquette, Arizona, BYU
7 seeds: Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Houston
8 seeds: LSU, Texas Tech, Saint Mary's, Florida
9 seeds: Illinois, Arizona State, Xavier, USC
10 seeds: Rutgers, Stanford, Rhode Island, Indiana
11 seeds: East Tennessee State, Utah State, Wichita State, Virginia, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Providence, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, North Texas, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Belmont, Bowling Green, Wright State, Colgate
15 seeds: UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Hofstra, Eastern Washington
16 seeds: Little Rock, Radford, Saint Francis (PA), Siena, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T

First four out: Cincinnati, Richmond, Mississippi State, North Carolina State
Next four out: Purdue, Georgetown, Memphis, Alabama

February 24, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: San Diego State, Creighton, Maryland, Villanova
3 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Florida State, Seton Hall
4 seeds: Oregon, Butler, West Virginia, Colorado
5 seeds: Auburn, Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan State
6 seeds: Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, BYU
7 seeds: Iowa, Marquette, Wisconsin, LSU
8 seeds: Texas Tech, Houston, Saint Mary's, Arizona State
9 seeds: Illinois, Florida, Rutgers, Wichita State
10 seeds: Rhode Island, Xavier, Indiana, Utah State
11 seeds: USC, Virginia, East Tennessee State, Providence, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Stanford, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Akron, Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, North Texas
14 seeds: Belmont, Colgate, New Mexico State, Hofstra
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Wright State, UC Irvine, Montana
16 seeds: Little Rock, Radford, Saint Francis (PA), Prairie View A&M, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State

First four out: Richmond, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Minnesota
Next four out: Purdue, Georgetown, Memphis, Mississippi State

February 19, 2020

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Maryland, Duke, Creighton, Dayton
3 seeds: Villanova, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Florida State
4 seeds: Colorado, Louisville, Butler, Auburn
5 seeds: Oregon, Arizona, Michigan State, Penn State
6 seeds: Kentucky, Marquette, Iowa, Ohio State
7 seeds: Houston, BYU, Michigan, Wisconsin
8 seeds: Illinois, LSU, Texas Tech, Rutgers
9 seeds: Xavier, Rhode Island, Saint Mary's, Florida
10 seeds: Georgetown, Arizona State, Wichita State, USC
11 seeds: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Purdue, 
12 seeds: Virginia, Utah State, Indiana, Cincinnati, Yale, Vermont
13 seeds: Akron, Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, Colgate
14 seeds: Wright State, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Hofstra
15 seeds: UC Irvine, Montana, Murray State, Little Rock
16 seeds: Winthrop, North Florida, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State

First four out: Richmond, Stanford, Alabama, Arkansas
Next four out: Minnesota, Mississippi State, North Carolina State, Prividence

February 13, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Maryland, Duke, Dayton, Louisville
3 seeds: Butler, Auburn, Seton Hall, West Virginia
4 seeds: Villanova, Creighton, Penn State, Colorado
5 seeds: Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, Marquette
6 seeds: Iowa, Kentucky, Ohio State, Arizona
7 seeds: LSU, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU
8 seeds: Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, USC
9 seeds: Oklahoma, Rutgers, Purdue, Rhode Island
10 seeds: Xavier, Saint Mary's, Florida, Stanford
11 seeds: Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Wichita State, Arkansas, Indiana
12 seeds: Arizona State, Minnesota, East Tennessee State, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, Colgate
14 seeds: New Mexico State, Wright State, Little Rock, Winthrop
15 seeds: Bowling Green, North Dakota State, Murray State, Hofstra
16 seeds: Montana, UC Irvine, Rider, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central

First four out: VCU, Utah, Utah State, Virginia
Next four out: North Carolina State, Providence, Memphis, Cincinnati

February 6, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: West Virginia, Maryland, Butler, Seton Hall
3 seeds: Dayton, Duke, Florida State, Louisville
4 seeds: Villanova, Auburn, Oregon, Creighton
5 seeds: Penn State, Michigan State, Colorado, Marquette
6 seeds: Ohio State, LSU, Kentucky, Iowa
7 seeds: Arizona, Illinois, Rutgers, USC
8 seeds: Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Houston
9 seeds: Arkansas, Stanford, Saint Mary's College, Xavier
10 seeds: BYU, Wichita State, Rhode Island, Purdue
11 seeds: Memphis, Georgetown, Indiana, Florida, Minnesota, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Yale, Tulsa
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech
14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Winthrop, Wright State
15 seeds: Bowling Green, Little Rock, Eastern Washington, North Dakota State
16 seeds: UC Irvine, Hofstra, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T

First four out: VCU, Mississippi State, Virginia, Texas
Next four out: Providence, Richmond, Arizona State, Cincinnati

January 24, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Dayton, Duke, Seton Hall, Gonzaga

3 seeds: Louisville, Butler, Oregon, Florida State

4 seeds: Villanova, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa

5 seeds: Colorado, Creighton, Auburn, Wisconsin

6 seeds: Rutgers, Penn State, Marquette, Kentucky

7 seeds: Arizona, Ohio State, LSU, Stanford

8 seeds: Arkansas, Houston, Indiana, Michigan

9 seeds: USC, Illinois, North Carolina State, Oklahoma

10 seeds: BYU, Wichita State, Memphis, Minnesota

11 seeds: Florida, Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's College, Texas Tech, Georgetown

12 seeds: Tennessee, Xavier, East Tennessee State, Liberty, Akron

13 seeds: Yale, Stephen F Austin, North Texas, Vermont

14 seeds: Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary, Loyola-Chicago

15 seeds: Montana, Wright State, Little Rock, Winthrop

16 seeds: South Dakota State, Murray State, Hawaii, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: DePaul, Richmond, Purdue, Rhode Island

Next four out: VCU, Alabama, Utah, Georgia

January 23, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Seton Hall, Duke, Dayton, Louisville

3 seeds: Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan State, Oregon

4 seeds: Florida State, Villanova, Maryland, Iowa

5 seeds: Auburn, Creighton, Colorado, Wisconsin

6 seeds: Penn State, Ohio State, Kentucky, Marquette

7 seeds: Rutgers, Arizona, LSU, Stanford

8 seeds: USC, Illinois, Houston, Arkansas

9 seeds: Wichita State, North Carolina State, Michigan, Oklahoma

10 seeds: Indiana, Memphis, Virginia Tech, BYU

11 seeds: Liberty, Florida, Texas Tech, Saint Mary's College, Georgetown

12 seeds: Minnesota, Tennessee, Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Akron

13 seeds: Yale, Tulsa, Stephen F Austin, Vermont

14 seeds: Western Kentucky, Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary

15 seeds: Montana, Wright State, Little Rock, South Dakota State

16 seeds: Winthrop, Hawaii, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: Xavier, Richmond, Rhode Island, VCU

Next four out: DePaul, Purdue, Alabama, Washington

January 21, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, West Virginia

2 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Seton Hall, Dayton

3 seeds: Gonzaga, Michigan State, Butler, Florida State

4 seeds: Oregon, Maryland, Villanova, Auburn

5 seeds: Colorado, Rutgers, Creighton, Iowa

6 seeds: Wisconsin, Penn State, Marquette, Ohio State

7 seeds: Arizona, LSU, Kentucky, USC

8 seeds: Memphis, Stanford, Wichita State, Arkansas

9 seeds: Michigan, North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Illinois

10 seeds: Virginia Tech, Indiana, Northern Iowa, Houston

11 seeds: Florida, BYU, DePaul, Saint Mary's College

12 seeds: Texas Tech, Minnesota, Purdue, Richmond, Liberty, East Tennessee State

13 seeds: Yale, Akron, Stephen F Austin, North Texas

14 seeds: Colgate, New Mexico State, William & Mary, Montana

15 seeds: Stony Brook, Wright State, UV Irvine, Little Rock

16 seeds: Winthrop, North Dakota State, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First four out: Saint Louis, Tennessee, Georgetown, Arizona State

Next four out: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Virginia

January 17, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Butler

2 seeds: Duke, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Auburn

3 seeds: Florida State, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Oregon

4 seeds: Maryland, Dayton, Villanova, Louisville

5 seeds: Wichita State, Colorado, Wisconsin, Creighton

6 seeds: Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Arkansas

7 seeds: Iowa, Stanford, Rutgers, Memphis

8 seeds: Illinois, Arizona, Penn State, Indiana

9 seeds: Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, BYU

10 seeds: USC, Marquette, Houston, Liberty

11 seeds: Minnesota, Purdue, Xavier, Richmond. Texas Tech

12 seeds: Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s College, Northern Iowa, Akron, East Tennessee State

13 seeds: Yale, Stephen F Austin, Louisiana Tech, Georgia State

14 seeds: William & Mary, New Mexico State, Montana, Colgate

15 seeds: Wright State, UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Murray State

16 seeds: Winthrop, Quinnipiac, Albany, Robert Morris, North Carolina A&T, Grambling State

First four out: Florida, Georgetown, North Carolina State, Tennessee

Next four out: Arizona State, Oregon State, Texas, Georgia

January 14, 2020

I want talk for just a moment about Gonzaga. They they are undoubtedly one of the elite programs in the country, and pass the 1-seed "eye-test" with flying colors. That being said, their resume has no recent precedent in terms of a team so good having a schedule so awful. To date, they've beaten just two tourney teams and have a NET SOS of 292. They have 6 or 7 resume games left on their schedule, including the WCC tournament, so their best case scenario is a 33-1 record, 150ish SOS, 5 Q1 wins & 5 Q2 wins. 

We only have one year of NET selection data, and last year the worst SOS in the at-large field was 26-6 Belmont's #154. That team had 2 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, and 3 losses outside Q1. Obviously this year's Zags are far superior, but can they improve their resume enough for a chance at a #1 seed?

The closest resume comparisons are actually three recent Gonzaga teams.
2013: 30-2, #6RPI, #75SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
2015: 31-2, #8RPI, #72SOS, 5 "Q1" & 4 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 2-seed
2017: 32-1, #8RPI,  #78SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
My opinion is the Bulldogs best case resume for 2020 is worse than any of the above, and has a ceiling of a 2-seed.
Projected 2020: 33-1, [#21RPI], #10NET, #150SOS, 5 Q1 & 5 Q2 wins, no bad losses.

Given their current mid-season SOS of 292, I can't even justify a top-3 seed.

1 seeds: Butler, West Virginia, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds: Auburn, San Diego State, Kansas, Oregon
3 seeds: Maryland, Wichita State, Florida State, Michigan State
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Villanova, Dayton
5 seeds: Louisville, Creighton, Colorado, Indiana
6 seeds: Stanford, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas
7 seeds: Kentucky, Penn State, Memphis, Michigan
8 seeds: Rutgers, USC, LSU, Iowa
9 seeds: Wisconsin, BYU, Illinois, Saint Louis
10 seeds: Liberty, Xavier, Arizona, Virginia Tech
11 seeds: Marquette, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Miami (FL)
12 seeds: Purdue, Texas Tech, Akron, Duquesne, Western Carolina
13 seeds: Georgia State, William & Mary, Colgate, Stony Brook
14 seeds: Montana, New Mexico State, Wright State, Nicholls
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Charlotte, Winthrop, Murray State
16 seeds: Quinnipiac, UC Riverside, Princeton, Gambling State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State

First four out: Saint Mary's, Oregon State, Utah, Minnesota
Next four out: VCU, Richmond, Oklahoma State, Houston

December 30, 2019 - Early season bracket

I hesitate to publish a bracket with significant deviations from most other bracketologists, but hopefully a quick explanation of my method will make sense. As preparation for Selection Sunday, I don't do any forward-looking projection for how teams will perform after today. My bracket is always based on "if selection occurred today". With that said, you'll see some noteable absences, which I'll try to address below.

More specifically, my method uses a regression formula based on prior years' seeding to initially rank teams based on the most significant resume metrics. I then apply some high-level subjective shuffling to arrive at my final list. Due to time constraints, I generally do not apply the nuanced seeding rules until my final bracket, so I only list the projected seed without predicting specific matchups.

One final note- the new NET ranking system is just in it's second year of use, so there isn't yet much historical precedent for how to interpret past seeding. While the RPI and NET numbers seemed to converge toward the end of the season last year (especially for at-large teams), the differences tend to be more drastic earlier in the season. This contributes to my early-season predictions not lining up with more traditional forward-looking brackets.

1 seeds: West Virginia, Kansas, Sam Diego State, Butler
2 seeds: Duke, Auburn, Maryland, Ohio State
3 seeds: Baylor, Florida State, Oregon, Gonzaga
4 seeds: Louisville, Wichita State, Michigan, Dayton
5 seeds: Memphis, Penn State, Iowa, Villanova
6 seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Colorado, Arkansas
7 seeds: Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Indiana
8 seeds: Stanford, Xavier, Marquette, Arizona
9 seeds: Oklahoma, BYU, Washington, Virginia
10 seeds: Saint Mary's, Seton Hall, NC State, Liberty
11 seeds: DePaul, USC, Temple, Rutgers
12 seeds: Miami FL, Arizona State, Utah State, Saint John's, George Mason, Yale
13 seeds: East TN State, SF Austin, Kent State, Vermont
14 seeds: Eastern Washington, Louisiana Tech, Wright State, Arkansas State
15 seeds: Saint Francis (PA), Rider, Delaware, Belmont
16 seeds: Lafayette, UCSB, ND State, Campbell, Copping State, Alabama A&M

First four out: Saint Louis, Houston, Minnesota, Florida
Next four out: Utah, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Tennessee

March 17, 2019 - Final Bracket

Final Bracket


1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Michigan State
2 seeds: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan
3 seeds: Houston, Florida State, LSU, Texas Tech
4 seeds: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech
5 seeds: Kansas State, Villanova, Marquette, Auburn
6 seeds: Mississippi State, Maryland, Iowa State, Cincinnati
7 seeds: Buffalo, Wofford, Nevada, UCF
8 seeds: Iowa, Louisville, Utah State, Seton Hall
9 seeds: Minnesota, Washington, Oklahoma, Ole Miss
10 seeds: VCU, Syracuse, Baylor, TCU
11 seeds: Saint John's, Arizona State, Temple, Florida, Ohio State, Oregon
12 seeds: Saint Mary's College, Murray State, New Mexico State, UC Irvine
13 seeds: Liberty, Saint Louis, Yale, Northeastern
14 seeds: Vermont, Old Dominion, Georgia State, Montana
15 seeds: Abilene Christian, Northern Kentucky, Colgate, Bradley
16 seeds: Gardner-Webb, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, North Dakota State, Iona, North Carolina Central

First four out: North Carolina State, Clemson, UNCG, Belmont
Next four out: Georgetown, Lipscomb, Furman, Creighton

March 15, 2019

This will likely be my last post before selection Sunday.

1 seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky
2 seeds: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Michigan
3 seeds: Houston, LSU, Kansas, Purdue
4 seeds: Texas Tech, Florida State, Kansas State, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Villanova
6 seeds: Auburn, Wofford, Maryland, Buffalo
7 seeds: Nevada, Cincinnati, UCF, Iowa State
8 seeds: Iowa, Washington, Louisville, VCU
9 seeds: Utah State, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Oklahoma
10 seeds: Saint John's, Ole Miss, North Carolina State, Baylor
11 seeds: Syracuse, Ohio State, Saint Mary's College, Temple
12 seeds: TCU, Clemson, Arizona State, Florida, Murray State, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Vermont, Northeastern
14 seeds: Yale, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Georgia State
15 seeds: Montana, Colgate, Abilene Christian, Gardner-Webb
16 seeds: Bradley, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, Prairie View A&M, North Dakota State, Norfolk State

First four out: Alabama, UNC Greensboro, Creighton, Belmont
Next four out: Furman, Lipscomb, Davidson,  Memphis

March 14, 2019

1 seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke
2 seeds: Gonzaga, Tennessee, Michigan, Michigan State
3 seeds: Texas Tech, LSU, Houston, Kansas
4 seeds: Purdue, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Kansas State, Marquette, Mississippi State, Maryland
6 seeds: Villanova, Wofford, Buffalo, Nevada
7 seeds: Cincinnati, Auburn, UCF, Louisville
8 seeds: Iowa State, Washington, Iowa, Oklahoma
9 seeds: Ole Miss, VCU, Baylor, Utah State
10 seeds: North Carolina State, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Saint John's
11 seeds: Syracuse, TCU, Arizona State, Saint Mary's College
12 seeds: Clemson, Temple, Ohio State, Creighton, Murray State, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, UC Irvine, Northeastern
14 seeds: Yale, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Montana
15 seeds: Georgia State, Colgate, Gardner-Webb, Sam Houston State
16 seeds: Bradley, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, Prairie View A&M, North Dakota State, Norfolk State

First four out: Florida, Alabama, Furman, Belmont
Next four out: Indiana, UNC Greensboro, Lipscomb, Georgetown

March 12, 2019

Preliminary bracket - my goal is to update this at least once more before going final Sunday afternoon. There are a lot of bubble teams in action over the next 2 days.

1 seeds: Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Kentucky

2 seeds: Duke, Tennessee, Michigan, Michigan State

3 seeds: Houston, Texas Tech, LSU, Kansas

4 seeds: Purdue, Marquette, Wisconsin, Florida State

5 seeds: Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Villanova

6 seeds: Maryland, Buffalo, Nevada, Auburn

7 seeds: Cincinnati, Wofford, UCF, Iowa State

8 seeds: Iowa, Louisville, Washington, Oklahoma

9 seeds: VCU, Ole Miss, Baylor, Utah State

10 seeds: North Carolina State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, Saint John's

11 seeds: Syracuse, Temple, TCU, Arizona State

12 seeds: Clemson, Ohio State, Saint Mary's, Belmont, Murray State, New Mexico State

13 seeds: Liberty, UC Irvine, Hofstra, Vermont

14 seeds: Yale, Old Dominion, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky

15 seeds: Montana, Georgia State, Colgate, Gardner-Webb

16 seeds: Sam Houston State, Bradley, Iona, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, Norfolk State

March 11, 2018 - Final Bracket

1's: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier

2's: Cincinnati, North Carolina, Duke, Purdue
3's: Tennessee, Auburn, Michigan State, Michigan
4's: Wichita State, Arizona, Texas Tech, Gonzaga

5's: Ohio State, West Virginia, Kentucky, Clemson
6's: Houston, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Arkansas

7's: Texas A&M, TCU, Nevada, Florida

8's: Virginia Tech, Saint Bonaventure, Kansas State, Florida State

9's: North Carolina State, USC, Seton Hall, UCLA

10's: Creighton, Providence, Missouri, Oklahoma

11's: Butler, Texas, Alabama, Middle Tennessee, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State

12's: South Dakota State, San Diego State, Murray State, Buffalo

13's: Charleston, Davidson, UNC-Greensboro, Bucknell

14's: Marshall, Montana, Wright State, Lipscomb

15's: Stephen F. Austin, Iona, UMBC, Penn

16's: Georgia State, Cal State Fullerton, Radford, Texas Southern, Long Island, NC Central

*Contingency: If Houston defeats Cincinnati, they will move up to a 5-seed line, bumping Clemson to a 6-seed. Cincinnati will remain on the 2-line.

S-Curve comparison

After revealing the bracket on Sunday, the committee published its 1-68 S-Curve rankings of the teams in the field.  I managed to slot exactly 25% of the field on the correct S-Curve line, and 49 teams within three spots.

Team	Drew	NCAA	Var		Variance	Teams
Villanova	1	1	0		0	17
Kansas	2	2	0		1	14
North Carolina	5	3	-2		2	8
Gonzaga	3	4	1		3	10
Kentucky	7	5	-2		4	7
Arizona	6	6	0		5	6
Duke	4	7	3		6	1
Louisville	8	8	0		7	1
Oregon	11	9	-2		8	1
Florida State	10	10	0		9	1
UCLA	15	11	-4		10	2
Baylor	9	12	3
Butler	13	13	0
Florida	12	14	2
West Virginia	19	15	-4
Purdue	18	16	-2
Virginia	16	17	1
Minnesota	17	18	1
Notre Dame	14	19	5
Iowa State	20	20	0
SMU	22	21	-1
Cincinnati	23	22	-1
Maryland	27	23	-4
Creighton	26	24	-2
Saint Marys College	25	25	0
South Carolina	33	26	-7
Michigan	24	27	3
Dayton	34	28	-6
Wisconsin	21	29	8
Miami (FL)	29	30	1
Arkansas	28	31	3
Northwestern	31	32	1
Vanderbilt	43	33	-10
Seton Hall	36	34	-2
Michigan State	40	35	-5
Virginia Tech	32	36	4
Oklahoma State	37	37	0
Wichita State	38	38	0
Marquette	39	39	0
Virginia Commonwealth	30	40	10
Xavier	41	41	0
Providence	45	42	-3
Wake Forest	42	43	1
Rhode Island	35	44	9
USC	44	45	1
Kansas State	46	46	0
Nevada	48	47	-1
Middle Tennessee	47	48	1
UNC Wilmington	49	49	0
Princeton	53	50	-3
Bucknell	55	51	-4
East Tennessee State	51	52	1
Vermont	50	53	3
Winthrop	54	54	0
New Mexico State	52	55	3
Florida Gulf Coast	56	56	0
Kent State	62	57	-5
Iona	58	58	0
Northern Kentucky	57	59	2
Troy	65	60	-5
Jacksonville State	66	61	-5
North Dakota	59	62	3
Texas Southern	60	63	3
South Dakota State	68	64	-4
UC Davis	64	65	1
North Carolina Central	61	66	5
New Orleans	63	67	4
Mount Saint Marys	67	68	1