January 19, 2021

I'm always hesitant to post my first bracket each year, because I know my methods generally don't align with early-to-mid season forward-looking selection predictions. It seems like I say this every year, but this year feels way weirder - for obvious reasons. 

Adding to my normal first-bracket jitters is the fact I have watched almost zero college basketball this year, with the exception of parts of maybe 5 Gophers games. In some ways, this is actually a benefit, as my bracket becomes almost a de facto "blind" bracket. But in reality, the Eye Test does influence the committee, as well as other bracketologists, and therefore means some of the seeds below are going to be vary significantly from other experts' picks at this point. 

One last note - because some teams have played far fewer games than others, I tried to apply some creative smoothing to some of the metrics, like quality wins and bad losses. Essentially I'm trying to ensure that 2 quality wins out of 7 games played reflects in my ratings similarly to 4 quality wins out of 14 games played.

With those caveats in mind, here's what I think seeds look like if the season ended today.

1 seeds: Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor, Houston
2 seeds: Texas, Iowa, Tennessee, Ohio State
3 seeds: Kansas, Clemson, Villanova, Missouri
4 seeds: Colorado, Wisconsin, USC, Minnesota
5 seeds: Alabama, West Virginia, Illinois, BYU
6 seeds: LSU, Virginia, Florida State, Oklahoma State
7 seeds: Drake, UCLA, Texas Tech, Boise State
8 seeds: Xavier, Virginia Tech, Saint Louis, Purdue
9 seeds: Creighton, Louisville, San Diego State, Connecticut
10 seeds: Oregon, Arizona, Wichita State, Richmond
11 seeds: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Maryland, Rutgers, North Carolina
12 seeds: Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Winthrop, Saint Bonaventure, Siena
13 seeds: Furman, UAB, Bowling Green, Navy
14 seeds: Belmont, Bryant, Cleveland State, Sam Houston State
15 seeds: Northeastern, Texas State, UC Irvine, UMBC
16 seeds: Montana State, South Dakota, Utah Valley, Southern, Jacksonville, North Carolina A&T

First four out: Georgia State, Florida, VCU, Colorado State
Next four out: SMU, Utah State, Stanford, Marquette

March 15, 2020 - Final Bracket

Just a couple weeks ago, I couldn't have imagined I'd spend my Selection Sunday tracking and analyzing COVID-19 data rather than NCAA resume data. Rather than being immersed in the Big Ten championship game and Selection show, I spent my afternoon following updates on emergency shutdown measures and making contingency plans for the upcoming days and weeks.

Following the announcement of tournament cancellation, there were hopes the committee would still release their bracket, however a decision was rightly made that more important matters needed those individuals' urgent attention. We'll never know how accurate these predictions are, but for the sake of posterity, here is my final bracket.

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Creighton, Villanova, Duke, San Diego State
3 seeds: Maryland, Michigan State, Florida State, Louisville
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Oregon, Kentucky, Butler
5 seeds: Auburn, West Virginia, Ohio State, Arizona
6 seeds: BYU, Wisconsin, Houston, Michigan
7 seeds: LSU, Colorado, Iowa, Penn State
8 seeds: Illinois, Marquette, Florida, Virginia
9 seeds: Saint Mary's College, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Providence
10 seeds: Richmond, Wichita State, East Tennessee State, Utah State
11 seeds: USC, Oklahoma, Stanford, Arizona State, Xavier
12 seeds: Arkansas, Indiana, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Yale
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Belmont, Bradley, Northern Colorado, Hofstra
15 seeds: Texas State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Winthrop
16 seeds: Siena, Northern Kentucky, Boston University, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central

First four out: Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Saint Louis, North Carolina State
Next four out: Cincinnati, Purdue, Texas, Memphis

February 28, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: San Diego State, Florida State, Creighton, Maryland
3 seeds: Villanova, Seton Hall, Duke, Oregon
4 seeds: Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan State, Butler 
5 seeds: Penn State, Colorado, West Virginia, Auburn
6 seeds: Ohio State, Marquette, Arizona, BYU
7 seeds: Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Houston
8 seeds: LSU, Texas Tech, Saint Mary's, Florida
9 seeds: Illinois, Arizona State, Xavier, USC
10 seeds: Rutgers, Stanford, Rhode Island, Indiana
11 seeds: East Tennessee State, Utah State, Wichita State, Virginia, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Providence, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, North Texas, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Belmont, Bowling Green, Wright State, Colgate
15 seeds: UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Hofstra, Eastern Washington
16 seeds: Little Rock, Radford, Saint Francis (PA), Siena, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T

First four out: Cincinnati, Richmond, Mississippi State, North Carolina State
Next four out: Purdue, Georgetown, Memphis, Alabama

February 24, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
2 seeds: San Diego State, Creighton, Maryland, Villanova
3 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Florida State, Seton Hall
4 seeds: Oregon, Butler, West Virginia, Colorado
5 seeds: Auburn, Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan State
6 seeds: Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, BYU
7 seeds: Iowa, Marquette, Wisconsin, LSU
8 seeds: Texas Tech, Houston, Saint Mary's, Arizona State
9 seeds: Illinois, Florida, Rutgers, Wichita State
10 seeds: Rhode Island, Xavier, Indiana, Utah State
11 seeds: USC, Virginia, East Tennessee State, Providence, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Stanford, North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Akron, Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, North Texas
14 seeds: Belmont, Colgate, New Mexico State, Hofstra
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Wright State, UC Irvine, Montana
16 seeds: Little Rock, Radford, Saint Francis (PA), Prairie View A&M, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State

First four out: Richmond, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Minnesota
Next four out: Purdue, Georgetown, Memphis, Mississippi State

February 19, 2020

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Maryland, Duke, Creighton, Dayton
3 seeds: Villanova, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Florida State
4 seeds: Colorado, Louisville, Butler, Auburn
5 seeds: Oregon, Arizona, Michigan State, Penn State
6 seeds: Kentucky, Marquette, Iowa, Ohio State
7 seeds: Houston, BYU, Michigan, Wisconsin
8 seeds: Illinois, LSU, Texas Tech, Rutgers
9 seeds: Xavier, Rhode Island, Saint Mary's, Florida
10 seeds: Georgetown, Arizona State, Wichita State, USC
11 seeds: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Purdue, 
12 seeds: Virginia, Utah State, Indiana, Cincinnati, Yale, Vermont
13 seeds: Akron, Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, Colgate
14 seeds: Wright State, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Hofstra
15 seeds: UC Irvine, Montana, Murray State, Little Rock
16 seeds: Winthrop, North Florida, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State

First four out: Richmond, Stanford, Alabama, Arkansas
Next four out: Minnesota, Mississippi State, North Carolina State, Prividence

February 13, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Maryland, Duke, Dayton, Louisville
3 seeds: Butler, Auburn, Seton Hall, West Virginia
4 seeds: Villanova, Creighton, Penn State, Colorado
5 seeds: Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, Marquette
6 seeds: Iowa, Kentucky, Ohio State, Arizona
7 seeds: LSU, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU
8 seeds: Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, USC
9 seeds: Oklahoma, Rutgers, Purdue, Rhode Island
10 seeds: Xavier, Saint Mary's, Florida, Stanford
11 seeds: Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Wichita State, Arkansas, Indiana
12 seeds: Arizona State, Minnesota, East Tennessee State, Liberty, Yale
13 seeds: Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, Colgate
14 seeds: New Mexico State, Wright State, Little Rock, Winthrop
15 seeds: Bowling Green, North Dakota State, Murray State, Hofstra
16 seeds: Montana, UC Irvine, Rider, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central

First four out: VCU, Utah, Utah State, Virginia
Next four out: North Carolina State, Providence, Memphis, Cincinnati

February 6, 2020

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, San Diego State, Gonzaga
2 seeds: West Virginia, Maryland, Butler, Seton Hall
3 seeds: Dayton, Duke, Florida State, Louisville
4 seeds: Villanova, Auburn, Oregon, Creighton
5 seeds: Penn State, Michigan State, Colorado, Marquette
6 seeds: Ohio State, LSU, Kentucky, Iowa
7 seeds: Arizona, Illinois, Rutgers, USC
8 seeds: Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Houston
9 seeds: Arkansas, Stanford, Saint Mary's College, Xavier
10 seeds: BYU, Wichita State, Rhode Island, Purdue
11 seeds: Memphis, Georgetown, Indiana, Florida, Minnesota, Oklahoma
12 seeds: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Yale, Tulsa
13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech
14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Winthrop, Wright State
15 seeds: Bowling Green, Little Rock, Eastern Washington, North Dakota State
16 seeds: UC Irvine, Hofstra, Murray State, Monmouth, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T

First four out: VCU, Mississippi State, Virginia, Texas
Next four out: Providence, Richmond, Arizona State, Cincinnati