I want talk for just a moment about Gonzaga. They they are undoubtedly one of the elite programs in the country, and pass the 1-seed "eye-test" with flying colors. That being said, their resume has no recent precedent in terms of a team so good having a schedule so awful. To date, they've beaten just two tourney teams and have a NET SOS of 292. They have 6 or 7 resume games left on their schedule, including the WCC tournament, so their best case scenario is a 33-1 record, 150ish SOS, 5 Q1 wins & 5 Q2 wins.
We only have one year of NET selection data, and last year the worst SOS in the at-large field was 26-6 Belmont's #154. That team had 2 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, and 3 losses outside Q1. Obviously this year's Zags are far superior, but can they improve their resume enough for a chance at a #1 seed?
The closest resume comparisons are actually three recent Gonzaga teams.
2013: 30-2, #6RPI, #75SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
2015: 31-2, #8RPI, #72SOS, 5 "Q1" & 4 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 2-seed
2017: 32-1, #8RPI, #78SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
My opinion is the Bulldogs best case resume for 2020 is worse than any of the above, and has a ceiling of a 2-seed.
Projected 2020: 33-1, [#21RPI], #10NET, #150SOS, 5 Q1 & 5 Q2 wins, no bad losses.
Given their current mid-season SOS of 292, I can't even justify a top-3 seed.
1 seeds: Butler, West Virginia, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds: Auburn, San Diego State, Kansas, Oregon
3 seeds: Maryland, Wichita State, Florida State, Michigan State
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Villanova, Dayton
5 seeds: Louisville, Creighton, Colorado, Indiana
6 seeds: Stanford, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas
7 seeds: Kentucky, Penn State, Memphis, Michigan
8 seeds: Rutgers, USC, LSU, Iowa
9 seeds: Wisconsin, BYU, Illinois, Saint Louis
10 seeds: Liberty, Xavier, Arizona, Virginia Tech
11 seeds: Marquette, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Miami (FL)
12 seeds: Purdue, Texas Tech, Akron, Duquesne, Western Carolina
13 seeds: Georgia State, William & Mary, Colgate, Stony Brook
14 seeds: Montana, New Mexico State, Wright State, Nicholls
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Charlotte, Winthrop, Murray State
16 seeds: Quinnipiac, UC Riverside, Princeton, Gambling State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State
First four out: Saint Mary's, Oregon State, Utah, Minnesota
Next four out: VCU, Richmond, Oklahoma State, Houston
We only have one year of NET selection data, and last year the worst SOS in the at-large field was 26-6 Belmont's #154. That team had 2 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, and 3 losses outside Q1. Obviously this year's Zags are far superior, but can they improve their resume enough for a chance at a #1 seed?
The closest resume comparisons are actually three recent Gonzaga teams.
2013: 30-2, #6RPI, #75SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
2015: 31-2, #8RPI, #72SOS, 5 "Q1" & 4 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 2-seed
2017: 32-1, #8RPI, #78SOS, 6 "Q1" & 6 "Q2" wins, no bad losses. Result: 1-seed
My opinion is the Bulldogs best case resume for 2020 is worse than any of the above, and has a ceiling of a 2-seed.
Projected 2020: 33-1, [#21RPI], #10NET, #150SOS, 5 Q1 & 5 Q2 wins, no bad losses.
Given their current mid-season SOS of 292, I can't even justify a top-3 seed.
1 seeds: Butler, West Virginia, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds: Auburn, San Diego State, Kansas, Oregon
3 seeds: Maryland, Wichita State, Florida State, Michigan State
4 seeds: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Villanova, Dayton
5 seeds: Louisville, Creighton, Colorado, Indiana
6 seeds: Stanford, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas
7 seeds: Kentucky, Penn State, Memphis, Michigan
8 seeds: Rutgers, USC, LSU, Iowa
9 seeds: Wisconsin, BYU, Illinois, Saint Louis
10 seeds: Liberty, Xavier, Arizona, Virginia Tech
11 seeds: Marquette, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, Miami (FL)
12 seeds: Purdue, Texas Tech, Akron, Duquesne, Western Carolina
13 seeds: Georgia State, William & Mary, Colgate, Stony Brook
14 seeds: Montana, New Mexico State, Wright State, Nicholls
15 seeds: South Dakota State, Charlotte, Winthrop, Murray State
16 seeds: Quinnipiac, UC Riverside, Princeton, Gambling State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State
First four out: Saint Mary's, Oregon State, Utah, Minnesota
Next four out: VCU, Richmond, Oklahoma State, Houston
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