First, I import team-by-team data from WarrenNolan.com for a little fewer than half of the 351 Div-I teams. Notice Princeton and Mount St. Mary's are missing a few columns. Once conference champs are determined in early March, I'll include all those teams in my data pull.
Next, I sort the teams based on a regression formula created from at-large seeding over the last five years. With that as my starting point, I slide teams up and down a few spots as applicable based on the columns below as well as a few other resume criteria.
Challenges arise when you look at resumes of teams like Butler and North Carolina with a solid list of quality wins but also multiple losses outside the top-100. On the flip side, there are teams like Wisconsin and UNC Wilmington who have great records with no bad losses, but mediocre schedules that lack any top-50 quality victories.
As I apply manual adjustments to my at-large seed list, I keep in mind some historical precedents. Going back at least five years, a team with an RPI better than 28 hasn't been excluded from the at-large field (welcome to the dance, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, & UNC Wilmington). Similarly, a team with an RPI worse than 73 hasn't received an at-large bid (sorry, Michigan & Indiana). There are other historical considerations around SOS and wins/losses that I'll apply later in the season, but at this point many of the major conference schools are still suffering from a poor non-conference SOS that will improve with conference play between now and March.
Finally, after seeding the at-large teams and FFO/NFO, I pull in the sub-12 seed conference winners. At this point in the season I apply very little scrutiny here, and typically just include the team with the best RPI. A bit further into conference play, I usually switch to the conference record leader. On Selection Sunday those teams will already be determined so it's just about ranking them accurately. At that point I will compare resumes a bit closer to try and nail down the correct seed line for as many teams as possible. There are a lot of Paymon points available down there!
That's pretty much it. Feel free to hit me up with questions or [constructive] criticism in the comments.
| Team | Rank | W | L | RPI | SOS | Top-25 W | Top-50 W | Top-100W | Sub-100L | Last10 |
| Baylor | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| Villanova | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| Florida State | 3 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| Creighton | 4 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| Kansas | 5 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
| Gonzaga | 6 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 75 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| Minnesota | 7 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| Oregon | 9 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| Duke | 10 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| Florida | 11 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Butler | 12 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 8 |
| Xavier | 13 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| Notre Dame | 14 | 14 | 2 | 25 | 59 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| UCLA | 15 | 16 | 1 | 21 | 121 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| Louisville | 16 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| Saint Marys College | 17 | 14 | 1 | 20 | 74 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| Arizona | 18 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| Cincinnati | 19 | 13 | 2 | 17 | 48 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| Virginia | 20 | 12 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| SMU | 21 | 14 | 3 | 29 | 64 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| Purdue | 22 | 14 | 3 | 30 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| Maryland | 23 | 13 | 2 | 35 | 60 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| North Carolina | 24 | 13 | 3 | 16 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| Clemson | 25 | 11 | 4 | 33 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| West Virginia | 26 | 13 | 2 | 40 | 126 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| Northwestern | 27 | 13 | 4 | 44 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| USC | 28 | 15 | 2 | 32 | 93 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| Arkansas | 29 | 12 | 3 | 26 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| Dayton | 30 | 11 | 3 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| Seton Hall | 31 | 12 | 3 | 38 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| TCU | 32 | 11 | 3 | 36 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Virginia Tech | 33 | 12 | 3 | 48 | 104 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 34 | 13 | 3 | 31 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| North Carolina State | 35 | 12 | 4 | 27 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Middle Tennessee | 36 | 12 | 3 | 19 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| South Carolina | 37 | 11 | 3 | 37 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| Wisconsin | 38 | 13 | 3 | 49 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| Pittsburgh | 39 | 12 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| UNC Wilmington | 40 | 13 | 2 | 24 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| Michigan State | 41 | 11 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| Rhode Island | 42 | 10 | 5 | 41 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Ole Miss | 43 | 10 | 5 | 39 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Texas Tech | 44 | 12 | 3 | 61 | 159 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| Wake Forest | 45 | 10 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Georgia | 46 | 9 | 5 | 51 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Iowa State | 47 | 10 | 4 | 63 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Kansas State | 47.1 | 13 | 2 | 52 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Miami (FL) | 47.2 | 11 | 3 | 70 | 166 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| Indiana | 47.3 | 11 | 5 | 109 | 95 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Michigan | 47.4 | 11 | 5 | 86 | 85 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Illinois | 47.5 | 10 | 5 | 43 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Oklahoma State | 47.6 | 9 | 5 | 54 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| California | 47.7 | 11 | 5 | 64 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Houston | 47.8 | 12 | 4 | 66 | 128 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| Oakland | 48 | 12 | 3 | 65 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| Nevada | 49 | 14 | 3 | 42 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| UTA | 50 | 10 | 4 | 45 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| Akron | 51 | 11 | 3 | 67 | 218 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Chattanooga | 52 | 10 | 4 | 74 | 200 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| Illinois State | 53 | 11 | 4 | 46 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| New Mexico State | 54 | 13 | 2 | 84 | 310 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 55 | 9 | 5 | 75 | 120 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Vermont | 56 | 11 | 5 | 78 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Belmont | 57 | 9 | 4 | 107 | 214 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Monmouth | 58 | 12 | 5 | 68 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Bucknell | 59 | 12 | 5 | 89 | 221 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| UNC Asheville | 60 | 9 | 6 | 76 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| North Dakota State | 61 | 9 | 5 | 108 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| Princeton | 62 | 7 | 6 | 116 | 134 | |||||
| North Carolina Central | 63 | 6 | 5 | 114 | 215 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Texas Southern | 64 | 7 | 9 | 59 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Eastern Washington | 65 | 8 | 6 | 131 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Nicholls State | 66 | 5 | 7 | 92 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| UC Irvine | 67 | 7 | 9 | 158 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Mount Saint Mary's | 68 | 5 | 12 | 173 | 82 |
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