Monday, February 9, 2015

February 9, 2015

Here's an update of the Gophers' post-season hopes, with the remaining recipe for gaining a selection to the big dance. Ultimately, we can afford to lose only three more games between now and March 15th. Assuming one of those is a Big10 tournament knock-out loss, that means only two losses during the final seven regular season games. The good news is, Wisconsin is our only remaining opponent that has been dominant throughout the season. All others have shown some weaknesses that the Gophers could contend with.

2/12 @ #38 Iowa (15-8) - must win
2/15 @ #32 Indiana (17-7) - need to win either this game or the 26th @ Michigan State
2/18 vs. #157 Northwestern (10-13) - must win
2/21 @ #6 Wisconsin (21-2) - probably safe to chalk this one up as a loss...
2/26 @ #52 Michigan State (15-8) - need to win either this game or 15th @ Indiana
3/5 vs. #6 Wisconsin (21-2) - must win...or, sweep the three non-Wisconsin road games...pick your poison
3/8 vs. #93 Penn State (15-9) - must win
*3/11 vs. Big10 11-14 Seed, if seeded 11th-14th - must win
*3/12 vs. Big10 5-10 - must win if they didn't play on the 11th
*3/13 Big10 quarterfinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 12 losses
*3/14 Big10 semifinals - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 13 losses
*3/15 Big10 final - must win if they entered the Big10 tourney with 14+ losses

Based on the remaining schedule, I'll give the Gophers an 8:1 chance of playing in the NCAA Tourney. They've currently moved up to a #5 seed in my NIT projections, and would climb back onto the NCAA bubble with a win at Iowa on Thursday.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona
3's: Louisville, Notre Dame, Maryland, North Carolina
4's: Baylor, Butler, Iowa State, VCU
5's: Utah, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana
6's: Arkansas, Wichita State, West Virginia, SMU
7's: Ohio State, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Providence
8's: Texas, Dayton, Colorado State, Iowa
9's: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Old Dominion, Illinois
10's: Ole Miss, Saint John's, Georgia, Xavier
11's: Texas A&M, George Washington, LSU, Oregon
12's: Tulsa, Stanford, Temple, Seton Hall, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Eastern Washington, Iona, William & Mary, Long Beach State
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, High Point, South Dakota State
16's: Stony Brook, Lafayette, Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Saint Francis (PA), Texas Southern

FFO: Michigan State, Wyoming, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: North Carolina State, UCLA, Rhode Island, Alabama

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