February 27, 2015

The Gophers pulled off a huge overtime upset in Lansing last night, which will help tremendously in solidifying an NIT bid. They have a week off before hosting the Badgers on Thursday the 5th. A victory in that came could even put them back into the bubble discussion, but they'd still need a very deep run in the Big 10 tournament to have a realistic shot at an at-large selection. In the meantime, they can get some help via losses by the teams above them, and wins by Penn State, Northwestern, and Nebraska. If any of those three teams can crack the top-100 (they're currently 112, 114, & 124th), that would help Minnesota a bunch.

I'm beginning to work on a mathematical system to rate the AP pollsters. I would like to be able to definitively say which voters know what they're doing, and which are ranking teams via one of these methods. I'll continue to provide updates as I make progress.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: West Virginia, Louisville, Utah, Butler
5's: Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, SMU
6's: Georgetown, North Carolina, VCU, Wichita State
7's: Oklahoma State, Indiana, San Diego State, Ohio State
8's: Providence, North Carolina State, Saint John's, Colorado State
9's: Georgia, Tulsa, Dayton, Texas
10's: Iowa, Xavier, Oregon, Texas A&M
11's: Michigan State, Ole Miss, Illinois, Cincinnati, Temple
12's: Pittsburgh, Davidson, Wofford, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Murray State, Harvard
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Eastern Washington, South Dakota State
15's: High Point, William & Mary, Georgia State, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Syracuse, Stanford, LSU, UCLA
NFO: Boise State, Purdue, Miami (FL), Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Connecticut, UTEP, Washington, George Washington
NNNFO: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Rhode Island, BYU

February 26, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia
4's: Notre Dame, Louisville, Notre Dame, Utah
5's: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, North Carolina, Butler
6's: Georgetown, SMU, VCU, Wichita State
7's: Indiana, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, Tulsa, North Carolina State
9's: Providence, Xavier, Saint John's, Iowa
10's: Michigan State, Oregon, Georgia, Texas A&M
11's: Texas, Cincinnati, Temple, Illinois, Ole Miss
12's: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Old Dominion
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Harvard, Murray State
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Eastern Washington, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, North Carolina Central
16's: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, LSU, UCLA, Boise State
NFO: Miami (FL), Richmond, Purdue, Stanford

February 25, 2015

Today I'm going to have myself a little rant about the sad state of the current polling system. I frequently talk to friends/coworkers/acquaintances about college basketball. All too often, well-informed and well-intentioned sports fans place far too much emphasis on poll rankings when referencing the strength of a team. I think the 4-letter network deserves a lot of blame for this, as they constantly perpetuate the myth that a team's poll ranking equates to their ability. They bump high-ranking matchups to primetime TV spots, and spend the vast majority of their time spouting about a select few historically good schools which draw a larger TV viewing audience (read: $$$), however all their talking-head rhetoric can't translate to quality performance on the court. I will qualify my frustration by saying that the discrepancies aren't quite as terrible at the top of the rankings, but I think that many of the voters simply get lazy once they get past #15, because there are some blatantly absurd voting patterns. Below are a couple of prime examples:

San Diego State ranked #24, Colorado State not a single vote. I don't disagree that the Aztecs are the better team, but the two teams are adjacent on the RPI list and I personally have them at #26 and #29, respectively, on my bracketology seed list. Their resumes are strikingly similar: Rams have one fewer loss, Aztecs have a slightly stronger schedule and one more quality win. Both teams have one bad loss, and their two meetings were split with the home team prevailing by single digits. The next example will further illustrate the absurdity of Colorado State having zero votes.

Murray State received 42 votes, ranked #28. A total of 16 voters had the Racers in their top-25 teams in the country. Let's take a quick peek at Murray State's resume: 22-4 record, #265 SOS, one top-100 win (December home game against #84 Illinois State...and they haven't played a top-135 team since). They have two losses outside the top-100, including to #268 Houston. I have the Racers at #78 on my bracketology seed list. Now, if one or two ignorant voters decided to slide Murray State a pity #25 vote based on their impressive record and they finished with one or two points, I would quickly scoff and move on. But they have 42 votes, which means that 65 individual "experts" voted them ahead of Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, Oregon, and about 50 other teams they shouldn't be ahead of, including Colorado State. I strongly believe that there needs to be a voter validation system, whereby voters' selections are tested by subsequent game results. Anomoly upsets will surely happen, but over a full season, we'll be able to easily tell who has their head up their ass [Dick Vitale] when they place Murray State #19 on their list. I would love to meet Dick Vitale today and ask him who he thought would win in a neutral-court matchup between Murray State and West Virginia. For christ's sake, the latter just throttled Oklahoma State in Stillwater by double digits and the former gave up 92 points in a 2-point victory over 10-16 #274 Southeast Missouri State.

If anyone is interested, below is the link to a site that shows the full voting results.
College Poll Tracker

...end rant.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia
4's: Oklahoma, Louisville, Notre Dame, Utah
5's: Butler, Northern Iowa, North Carolina, Arkansas
6's: VCU, Indiana, Georgetown, Wichita State
7's: SMU, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: Colorado State, Providence, North Carolina State, Saint John's
9's: Dayton, Tulsa, Oregon, Iowa
10's: Xavier, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Ole Miss
11's: Illinois, Temple, Texas, Georgia, Cincinnati
12's: Syracuse, Davidson, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Old Dominion
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Murray State
14's: Harvard, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: LSU, Pittsburgh, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: Stanford, Massachusetts, UCLA, Purdue

February 24, 2015 - Bracketology Post #100

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Baylor, Maryland, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Louisville, Utah
5's: Northern Iowa, VCU, Butler, North Carolina
6's: Georgetown, Arkansas, SMU, Indiana
7's: Wichita State, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Providence
8's: Colorado State, Ohio State, Saint John's, Texas
9's: Xavier, North Carolina State, Texas A&M, Michigan State
10's: Dayton, Tulsa, Oregon, Ole Miss
11's: Iowa, Illinois, Cincinnat, Temple, Georgia
12's: Pittsburgh, LSU, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Murray State, Iona
14's: Harvard, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, UCLA, Stanford, Boise State
NFO: Massachusetts, Wyoming, Purdue, Seton Hall

February 23, 2015 - NIT

This is my first attempt at an NIT bracket. The interest here is based on the Gophers' chances of having an opportunity to defend their title. Sadly, they're on the NIT bubble at this point, and need at least a couple more wins to solidify a chance at a selection.

As a reminder, teams who won their conference regular season, but failed to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament, are automatically qualified for the NIT. There are five of these teams in total, although right now I have Valpo safely in the NIT field, so really only the four 8-seeds are impacted. There will, however, be at least a few surprises come conference tournament time, as there have been at least 10 auto-bids for the NIT in each of the last four years. That said, the NIT bubble will likely move up to the 5- and 6-seeds, leaving Minnesota on the outside looking in.

1's: Stanford, Davidson, Boise State, Miami (FL)
2's: Pittsburgh, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Rhode Island
3's: Wyoming, Purdue, Seton Hall, Alabama
4's: Connecticut, George Washington, BYU, UTEP
5's: Washington, Tennessee, Florida, Valparaiso
6's: Central Michigan, Saint Mary's College, Richmond, Clemson
7's: Arizona State, Oregon State, Minnesota, Michigan
8's: Kent State, Louisiana Tech, Albany, Georgia Southern

FFO: Toledo, California, Yale, Memphis
NFO: Sam Houston State, Illinois State, La Salle, UNLV

February 23, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame
4's: Utah, Butler, Baylor, Iowa State
5's: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Georgetown
6's: Indiana, Arkansas, SMU, VCU
7's: Wichita State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Ohio State
8's: San Diego State, Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon
9's: Colorado State, North Carolina State, Iowa, Xavier
10's: Tulsa, Dayton, Saint John's, Illinois
11's: Texas A&M, Temple, Michigan State, Georgia, Cincinnati
12's: UCLA, LSU, Wofford, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Green Bay, Buffalo, Harvard, Murray State
14's: Iona, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: South Dakota State, William & Mary, High Point, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Stanford, Davidson, Boise State, Miami (FL)
NFO: Pittsburgh, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Rhode Island

February 19, 2015

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Utah, Notre Dame
4's: Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Louisville
5's: Northern Iowa, Butler, Arkansas, Indiana
6's: North Carolina, Georgetown, VCU, Wichita State
7's: SMU, Ohio STate, Oklahoma State, San Diego State
8's: Providence, Texas, Dayton, Colorado State, Illinois
9's: Saint John's, Temple, Xavier, Cincinnati
10's: Ole Miss, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Georgia
11's: Iowa, North Carolina State, Oregon, Wofford
12's: Davidson, UCLA, LSU, Boise State, Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Old Dominion, Harvard, Murray State, Iona
14's: Buffalo, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Georgia State
15's: High Point, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Florida Gulf Coast
16's: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, American, New Mexico State, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Miami (FL), Tulsa, Massachusetts, Stanford
NFO: Syracuse, Alabama, Rhode Island, Wyoming