March 9, 2015

Wow, what a weekend full of upset surprises.
First, Murray State lost to Belmont in the Ohio Valley final, ruining their perfect conference record, and their chances for an NCAA bid. I will admit some enjoyment in the vindication of my position that many AP voters had no idea what they're doing, as Murray State clearly had no business being ranked. It's funny how they went from the 25th ranked team in the country to receiving not a single vote today.
-Then, Wichita State lost in the MVC semifinal to Illinois State, who nearly took down Northern Iowa in the final. UNI pulled off the victory, allowing bubble teams to breathe a sigh of releif
-Finally, after a dramatic Yale victory over Harvard in what should have sealed their tournament entry, the Bulldogs lost to Dartmouth to fall back into a tie with Harvard for the conference regular season. There will now be a tie-breaker rubber match game played between Harvard and Yale on Saturday the 14th.

In additional to Belmont and Northern Iowa, two other teams punched their ticket over the weekend.
-Coastal Carolina beat Gardner Webb (who had previously upset favorite High Point) in the semifinal on Saturday, and then cruised past Winthrop in Sunday's Big South final.
-North Florida beat South Carolina Upstate on Sunday to claim the Atlantic Sun bid.

Three more teams will punch their ticket in conference tourney finals tonight:
-Northeastern will face William & Mary in the Colonial Athletic Association championship. The teams split their regular season meetings, each won by the home team. I give the slight edge to William & Mary.
-Surprise Furman plays Wofford for the Southern Conference bid. After winning just five regular season games, Furman advanced to the final, but will be huge underdogs to a Wofford team that is currently on the at-large bubble and likely to receive one of the first few automatic bids outside the at-large field (12- or 13-seed) if they win tonight.
The Manhattan Jaspers play the Iona Gaels in the MAAC finals. Iona is heavy favorites, with only three conference losses on the season.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, Utah, Louisville, West Virginia
5's: North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Wichita State
6's: SMU, Arkansas, Butler, Colorado State
7's: VCU, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Texas, North Carolina State
9's: Cincinnati, Ohio State, Davidson, Michigan State
10's: Oregon, Indiana, Temple, LSU
11's: Xavier, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tulsa, Dayton
12's: Purdue, Boise State, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Harvard, UC Davis
14's: Iona, William & Mary, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
15's: South Dakota State, Stony Brook, Belmont, North Carolina Central
16's: New Mexico State, Coastal Carolina, Lafayett, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY), North Florida

FFO: Illinois, Ole Miss, Connecticut, UCLA
NFO: Richmond, Alabama, BYU, Miami (FL)

March 6, 2015

Tough loss for the Gophers last night. They played extremely well for most of the game, there's just only so much you can do against a team as talented and well disciplined as Wisconsin. As good as the Gophers were playing on defense, the Badgers still managed to shoot more than 60% in the first half, including a dizzying start of something like 9 for 11, including 4 for 4 from beyond the arc. Ultimately, it was the expected result and really didn't hurt the Gophers' NIT bid. If anything, the impressive level of play against such dominant competition may have improved their resume, even in a home loss. Unfortunately that's not captured in the resume metrics - at least not those that I utilize.
In other news and notes...
-Davidson crushed VCU to slide well into the at-large field.
-Florida Gulf Coast's season ended with a semifinal loss in the Atlantic Sun tournament. South Carolina Upstate will play North Florida for the NCAA bid on Sunday.
-Ohio Valley semifinals are tonight, pitting [Dick Vitale's] #19 Murray State against Morehead State and Belmont versus Eastern Kentucky. The winners will play tomorrow for the first NCAA auto-bid.
-Harvard and Yale play this evening for what will most likely be the Ivy League auto-bid. Both teams play again tomorrow, in what should be relatively non-competitive regular season finales.
Both Missouri Valley juggernauts will get their first conference tournament action tonight, and will most likely both advance to Sunday's final in what will be a fantastic game to watch (1pm CST on CBS).
All-in-all, we'll have five auto-bids awarded by Sunday evening.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iiowa State, Utah
4's: Wichita State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Arkansas
5's: West Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Northern Iowa
6's: Georgetown, SMU, Butler, Providence
7's: VCU, Colorado State, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Saint John's, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Dayton
9's: Texas, Oregon, Cincinnati, North Carolina State
10's: Davidson, Indiana, Michigan State, Xavier
11's: Tulsa, Ole Miss, Georgia, Temple, LSU
12's: Texas A&M, Boise State, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Murray State, Harvard, Buffalo, Green Bay
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: William & Mary, Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, North Carolina Central
16's: New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY), North Florida

FFO: Illinois, Connecticut, Purdue, Pittsburgh
NFO: UCLA, Richmond, Stanford, Miami (FL)
...and just for fun...
NNFO: BYU, Kansas State, Saint Mary's College, Central Michigan
NNNFO: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Wyoming, Rhode Island

March 5, 2015 - NIT

As of today, the Gophers look to be safely in the NIT. A win against Wisconsin tonight would bump them up to a 1- or 2-seed, however a loss really wouldn't hurt much, if at all. What would hurt is a loss on Sunday against Penn State, or a first round Big10 tournament loss to a bottom-feeder Big10 team. Unless Northwestern finds a way to beat Iowa in Iowa City, the Gophers need to win just one of their remaining two games to avoid a day-one game in the Big 10 tourney.

If today's standings hold, Minnesota would draw Indiana in the #7-#10 day-two matchup. There is an outside chance of catching Michigan for the #9 seed, but that would require Gopher victories over Wisconsin and Penn State, and a Michigan loss against visiting [last-place] Rutgers.

Indiana currently holds a tie-breaker over Illinois, and finishes the regular season at home against the Spartans. The only way the Illini can gain the 7-seed would be winning their final game at Purdue and a Michigan State win over Indiana.

There are currently 11 conferences where the regular season winner is a lock for an at-large bid. That leaves 20 potential NIT auto-bids (Ivy League regular season winner gets NCAA auto-bid). Assuming the favorite will win in slightly more than half of those conference tourneys, we would expect there to be between 8-10 auto bids from these 20 tournaments. Most of these teams will fall to the 7- and 8-seeds in the NIT bracket, with the possibility of one or two sneaking a couple seeds higher.

1's: Davidson, Connecticut, Stanford, UCLA
2's: Purdue, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Miami (FL)
3's: BYU, Kansas State, Central Michigan, Minnesota
4's: Rhode Island, Saint Mary's College, Seton Hall, Michigan
5's: South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Wyoming
6's: Tennessee, UTEP, Memphis, Louisiana Tech
7's: Clemson, Valbaraiso, William & Mary, Albany
8's: Sacramento State, Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, North Florida

FFO: Yale, Massachusetts, Illinois State, California
NFO: Toledo, Bowling Green, George Washington, Kent State

March 5, 2015

-Notre Dame won the 3-seed showdown last night, bumping Louisville all the way to a #5.
-Providence ended Seton Hall's at-large hopes and solidified their own resume.
-No major upsets thus far in conference tournament play. In fact, only 2 of 13 tournament games yesterday ended in an upset: Longwood over Presbyterian and Saint Francis (PA) over Mount St. Mary's.
-The MVC tournament gets underway tonight, with the 7-10 seeds in action.
-Play also begins in the MAAC tourney, where the Iona Gaels will be favored.

-Finally, tonight's game against the Badgers may be the Gophers' last chance to add to their resume before Selection Sunday. It would be an unlikely win, but would be enough to put the Gophers back onto the bubble. They could still use some help from Michigan State sneaking up into the top-25, Illinois sliding back into the top-50, and Northwestern climbing into the top-100.
As for plan B, the Gophers are safely in the NIT field as of today, but losses to Penn State and/or a lower opening round Big10 conference opponent could change that. I'll try to get an NIT update posted later today.


Disclaimer about today's bracket update: due to a minor anomaly that's been bugging me for awhile now, I made a slight tweak to my regression model to better support seeding of teams near the bubble. If you notice any unexpected changes from yestesrday's bracket, that's why. I'll do some additional analysis after posting and may make some further tweaks tomorrow.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Notre Dame
4's: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Utah, North Carolina
5's: Louisville, Northern Iowa, West Virginia, Arkansas
6's: Butler, Georgetown, SMU, VCU
7's: Colorado State, Providence, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Texas, Dayton, Saint John's, Ohio State
9's: Oklahoma State, Oregon, North Carolina State, Cincinnati
10's: Tulsa, Indiana, Michigan State, Boise State
11's: Georgia, Temple, Illinois, Xavier, Ole Miss
12's: LSU, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Murray State, Harvard, Buffalo, Green Bay
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Northeastern, North Carolina Central
16's: Stony Brook, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, Syracuse, Connecticut, Stanford
NFO: UCLA, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Miami (FL), BYU, Kansas State, Central Michigan
NNNFO: Minnesota, Rhode Island, Saint Mary's College, Seton Hall

March 4, 2015

-Kentucky managed to hold off Georgia last night to start their season 30-0.
-Notre Dame travels to Louisville tonight in what will likely be a battle for a 3-seed.
-Providence plays at Seton Hall, who desperately needs quality wins to move onto the bubble.

Conference tournament play has begun, and the first few teams (outside the Ivy League) have been officially eliminated from NCAA tournament play.
-Ohio Valley conference will be the first to crown an auto-bid, on Saturday. Murray State is the heavy favorite there, with big help from a double-bye bracket where they begin play in the semifinal.
-Big South, Missouri Valley, and Atlantic Sun all hold their championship on Sunday. High Point is the favorite in the Big South, and North Florida in the Atlantic Sun. In the MVC tourney we should see a fantastic rubber match in the Wichita State-Northern Iowa battle; each team won by double digits on their home court. The winner will likely be a 3 or 4 seed, and the loser a 5 or 6.
-Speaking of the Ivy League, they hold their de-facto championship on Friday, as Yale plays at Harvard. The two teams are currently tied atop the conference standings, and Harvard won their home meeting in early February - a two-point nailbiter. Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League regular season champion is awarded the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Although both teams will have one remaining game on Saturday, both will be heavy favorites.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Louisville
4's: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Utah, Notre Dame
5's: Northern Iowa, West Virginia, North Carolina, Georgetown
6's: SMU, Arkansas, VCU, Butler
7's: Colorado State, Dayton, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Ohio State, Providence, Indiana, Saint John's
9's: Oklahoma State, Tulsa, Boise State, Oregon
10's: Texas, North Carolina State, Xavier, Michigan State
11's: Georgia, Temple, Texas A&M, Illinois, Cincinnati
12's: Davidson, LSU, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Northeastern, Albany
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Ole Miss, UCLA, Syracuse, Connecticut
NFO: Purdue, Pittsburgh, BYU, Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Stanford, Miami (FL), Minnesota, Kansas State
NNNFO: Seton Hall, George Washington, Wyoming, Rhode Island

March 3, 2015

There was a lot of action on my 3-line yesterday. Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma in Ames, and Baylor lost to a Texas team that had dropped 8 of 11 and was desperate for a resume booster. After the dust settled, not a whole lot changed on my bracket. Baylor dropped two snake spots, but maintained a spot on the 3-line thanks to a bevy of quality wins, and a #3 SOS. Oklahoma dropped just one snake line, but since they were previously on the end of the 3-line that means down to a #4 for the Sooners, replaced by Louisville.

In other games, Boise State knocked off San Diego State, solidifying their tournament selection. Barring any major collapses, the Mountain West will have three teams in the field (including Colorado State), possibly four if Utah State or Wyoming pulls off a conference tournament victory.

Tonight will be Kentucky's final road game of the season, against a formidable Georgia team. The Wildcats will still be heavy favorites, but this may be their last tough test before they reach the Sweet 16. The game will be on the 4-letter flagship at 8pm CST if you're interested.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Louisville
4's: Oklahoma, Wichita State, Utah, West Virginia
5's: Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Butler
6's: North Carolina, Georgetown, SMU, VCU
7's: Indiana, Colorado State, Dayton, Ohio State
8's: San Diego State, Iowa, Providence, Saint John's
9's: Tulsa, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Xavier
10's: Oregon, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas
11's: Michigan State, Temple, North Carolina State, Illinois, Cincinnati
12's: LSU, Davidson, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo
13's: Wofford, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Stony Brook
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Syracuse, Connecticut, UCLA, BYU
NFO: Purdue, Stanford, Miami (FL), Kansas State
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Richmond, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Minnesota
NNNFO: George Washington, Clemson, Alabama, Wyoming

March 2, 2015

Happy Monday, and welcome to March! With just 13 days until Selection Sunday, things are really starting to heat up. Despite a home loss to BYU, I have Gonzaga barely hanging on to the last #2 seed. A loss in the WCC tournament, and deep conference tournament runds by one of the current 3-seeds could knock them down. It will be interesting to see how pollsters rate the Zags' loss, and how far down they'll fall once the updated rankings come out later today.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Louisville, Utah, Wichita State, West Virginia
5's: Notre Dame, Butler, Northern Iowa, Arkansas
6's: SMU, North Carolina, Georgetown, VCU
7's: Indiana, Ohio State, San Diego State, Oklahoma State
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, Iowa, Providence
9's: Tulsa, Saint John's, Texas A&M, Xavier
10's: Michigan State, Oregon, Temple, Texas
11's: Boise State, Georgia, Illinois North Carolina State, Ole Miss
12's: Davidson, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Stony Brook
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: LSU, Syracuse, Connecticut, BYU
NFO: Kansas State, UCLA, Stanford, Purdue
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Pittsburgh, Richmond, Miami (FL), Seton Hall
NNNFO: Minnesota, George Washington, Alabama, Clemson