tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4242423530267192404.post1165714833058818591..comments2023-06-14T07:16:35.641-05:00Comments on Drew's Bracketology: February 12, 2014Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02274584718354651206noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4242423530267192404.post-65346154129462405012014-02-12T18:54:11.037-06:002014-02-12T18:54:11.037-06:00Was Michigan on the bubble before they won?Was Michigan on the bubble before they won?Justinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05043706617583280633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4242423530267192404.post-38845301254298973312014-02-12T14:10:03.529-06:002014-02-12T14:10:03.529-06:00My response is based on the assumption that you...My response is based on the assumption that you're implying Duke should be higher, and UMass and Saint Louis should be lower...<br /><br />I agree that there may be some bias in favor of win-loss record over strength of schedule, but I can't claim that bias as my own. My predictions are based on a regression analysis of the last three years' tournament seedings, as selected by the committee. Basically, they're more of a technical analysis and less of a fundamental one. <br /><br />If anything, my method removes school and conference bias that exists in favor of ACC teams like Duke, over A10 teams like Saint Louis. <br /><br />I'll admit it's very hard to compare teams with very different SOS numbers. Duke has 4 quality wins, but also two bad losses. Saint Louis lacks any quality wins, but their only two losses come to top-7 RPI teams. I believe the committe shows favor to teams who take care of what they can control (wins) over those who have the advantage of a strong schedule - something they can't. <br /><br />Regarding UMass, they're tied for the 15th best win-loss record in the country, with a better than average #45 SOS. I'm not sure how one can make the case for them being lower than a 4 or 5 seed. Duke is tied for the 22nd best record, and moves up from a six to a four seed based on their outstanding #4 SOS. I'll also mention that UMass' worst loss (St. Bonnie) isn't as bad as Duke's worst loss (Notre Dame).Drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02274584718354651206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4242423530267192404.post-63425325606415042472014-02-12T13:24:27.906-06:002014-02-12T13:24:27.906-06:00Why is Duke a 4, why is UMass a 4? How is Saint L...Why is Duke a 4, why is UMass a 4? How is Saint Louis a 2? #biasedBradleyStew03https://www.blogger.com/profile/00547029564375835529noreply@blogger.com