Monday, January 30, 2017

January 30, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga
2's: Florida State, Louisville, Arizona, Creighton
3's: North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, Butler
4's: Maryland, Cincinnati, Oregon, Saint Mary's
5's: Wisconsin, UCLA, South Carolina, West Virginia
6's: Florida, Notre Dame, Duke, Purdue
7's: Northwestern, Virginia Tech, Xavier, USC
8's: Minnesota, SMU, Marquette, Arkansas
9's: Dayton, Kansas State, Seton Hall, TCU
10's: VCU, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Clemson
11's: California, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, UNC Wilmington
12's: Middle Tennessee, Akron, Nevada, Illinois State
13's: New Mexico State, Valparaiso, Belmont, Vermont
14's: Monmouth, UTA, Florida Gulf Coast, East Tennessee State
15's: Bucknell, North Dakota State, UNC Asheville, Princeton
16's: Sam Houston State, Texas Southern, UC Davis, Weber State, North Carolina Central, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Indiana, Rhode Island, Michigan, North Carolina State
NFO: Tennessee, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Georgetown

Friday, January 27, 2017

January 27, 2017

The Big Ten might as well be called the Bubble Ten right now.  After five teams are solidly in at this point between Maryland at a 4-seed and Minnesota at a 7-seed, there are five more between a 10-seed and the Next Four Out - Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan State.  Most of these teams have ample talent to earn a selection, but their resumes have moderate issues - from Illinois' lack of quality wins to Indiana's RPI of 79, to Michigan State's nine losses.  It's still possible for all ten to make it, but they'll all need to gang up on the four Big10 bottom feeders - Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa & Rutgers.  

As for my Golden Gophers, 4 of their last 10 games are against those bottom feeders - and they really need to win all four.  They'll also need to win 2 of 3 against the bubble group (Indiana, @Illinois & Michigan).  Finally, it would be a big resume boost if they could steal a win of 3 games left against the top tier pack - 2 vs Maryland and @ Wisconsin.  That'd mean 6 or 7 wins in their last 10 games for a 9-9 or 10-8 conference record and season record of 21-10 or 22-9.  If they can get at least one win in the conference tournament, that should secure at least a 7-seed.

Finally, I'm excited that the Selection Committee has decided to provide a mid-season top-16 on February 11th.  It will be fun to have some real standings to anchor to.  My only concern is that it may help level the field of bracketologists if the committee provides too much insight into their late-season methodology.  

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Florida State, Gonzaga
2's: Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona
3's: Louisville, Oregon, Creighton, Butler
4's: Cincinnati, Virginia, Maryland, Notre Dame
5's: Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, West Virginia
6's: UCLA, Purdue, Saint Mary's, Northwestern
7's: Duke, Minnesota, Marquette, Xavier
8's: Virginia Tech, SMU, USC, Arkansas
9's: TCU, Dayton, Iowa State, Kansas State
10's: Michigan, UNC Wilmington, Seton Hall, Clemson
11's: Texas Tech, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Wake Forest
12's: Middle Tennessee, Akron, Nevada, New Mexico State
13's: Illinois State, UTA, Vermont, Valparaiso
14's: Belmont, Florida Gulf Coast, Monmouth, Winthrop
15's: East Tennessee State, Bucknell, North Dakota State, Princeton
16's: Sam Houston State, North Carolina Central, Eastern Washington, Texas Southern, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Indiana, Illinois, Miami (FL), VCU
NFO: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, California, Ole Miss

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

January 25, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Florida State, Gonzaga
2's: Creighton, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville
3's: Virginia, North Carolina, Butler, Arizona
4's: Oregon, Maryland, Cincinnati, UCLA
5's: Florida, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, South Carolina
6's: Purdue, Minnesota, West Virginia, Xavier
7's: Northwestern, Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's College, Duke
8's: Marquette, Arkansas, SMU, TCU
9's: USC, Kansas State, Seton Hall, Dayton
10's: Iowa State, Indiana, Rhode Island, UNC Wilmington
11's: Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Ole Miss, North Carolina State, Memphis
12's: Clemson, Wake Forest, Akron, New Mexico State, Nevada
13's: Illinois State, Chattanooga, Valparaiso, UTA
14's: Vermont, Belmont, Florida Gulf Coast, Monmouth
15's: Winthrop, Bucknell, North Dakota State, Princeton
16's: Sam Houston State, UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, Weber State, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Illinois, Michigan State
NFO: Oklahoma State, Georgia, La Salle, VCU

Thursday, January 19, 2017

January 19, 2017

The bubble is starting to get crowded.  As teams like Indiana, Iowa State and Marquette have improved their RPI to a point where they qualify for the field, others like VCU and Pittsburgh have suffered bad losses that hurt their resumes.  Yet others like Kansas State and Wichita State just need a chance to beat some quality opponents to boost their selection stock.  Aside from those above clearly moving in one direction or another, there's very little separation between the 10-line and NFO.  I could probably add 5-6 more teams after my NFO that could vie for a bubble spot (Georgia Tech, Michigan, Utah to name a few).


This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Baylor, Florida State, Gonzaga
2's: Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville
3's: North Carolina, Butler, Oregon, UCLA
4's: Arizona, Maryland, Cincinnati, Florida
5's: Notre Dame, Virginia, Minnesota, Duke
6's: Saint Mary's, South Carolina, Purdue, West Virginia
7's: Xavier, Northwestern, Wisconsin, USC
8's: Dayton, TCU, SMU, Virginia Tech
9's: Arkansas, Michigan State, Clemson, Texas Tech
10's: Middle Tennessee, Seton Hall, Georgia, Rhode Island
11's: Wake Forest, California, La Salle, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Indiana
12's: UNC Wilmington, Akron, Nevada, Illinois State
13's: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Valparaiso, Vermont
14's: Chattanooga, UTA, Belmont, Monmouth
15's: Bucknell, UNC Asheville, North Dakota State, Princeton
16's: Texas Southern, Sam Houston State, UC Irvine, Weber State, North Carolina Central, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Marquette, Pittsburgh, Illinois, Miami (FL)
NFO: Kansas State, Ohio State, North Carolina State, VCU

Monday, January 16, 2017

January 16, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Florida State
2's: Gonzaga, Creighton, Kentucky, Oregon
3's: Notre Dame, UCLA, Butler, Florida
4's: Louisville, Arizona, Cincinnati, Maryland
5's: West Virginia, Saint Mary's, Minnesota, Duke
6's: Virginia, Xavier, North Carolina, TCU
7's: Northwestern, SMU, USC, Arkansas
8's: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Dayton, South Carolina
9's: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Middle Tennessee, Michigan State
10's: Seton Hall, VCU, Purdue, Illinois
11's: North Carolina State, UNC Wilmington, Texas Tech, La Salle, Rhode Island
12's: Miami (FL), Iowa State, Nevada, Akron, Valparaiso
13's: New Mexico State, UTA, Illinois State, Chattanooga
14's: Vermont, Florida Gulf Coast, Belmont, Monmouth
15's: North Dakota State, Bucknell, UNC Asheville, Princeton
16's: Texas Southern, Sam Houston State, UC Irvine, Weber State, North Carolina Central, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Wake Forest, Indiana, Michigan, Kansas State
NFO: California, Charleston, Houston, Wichita State

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

January 11, 2017

This bracket is created as if today were Selection Sunday, not a forward looking projection.

1's: Villanova, Florida State, Baylor, Kansas
2's: Creighton, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Minnesota
3's: Oregon, Florida, Butler, West Virginia
4's: Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia, Louisville
5's: Xavier, North Carolina, Saint Mary's, UCLA
6's: Arizona, Cincinnati, Maryland, Purdue
7's: SMU, Clemson, Dayton, USC
8's: Northwestern, Seton Hall, TCU, Virginia Tech
9's: VCU, South Carolina, Arkansas, North Carolina State
10's: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Middle Tennessee, Texas Tech
11's: Illinois, Ole Miss, UNC Wilmington, Michigan State
12's: Iowa State, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Georgia, Oakland, UTA
13's: Akron, Nevada, Chattanooga, Florida Gulf Coast
14's: Vermont, Illinois State, New Mexico State, Belmont
15's: Monmouth, Bucknell, UNC Asheville, North Dakota State
16's: Princeton, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, Nicholls State, UC Irvine, Mount Saint Mary's

FFO: Miami (FL), Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Michigan
NFO: Indiana, Nebraska, Temple, Valparaiso

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Drew's Bracketology - A peek behind the curtain

I thought it might be interesting to provide some insight into my seeding process for those who take the time to visit my bracketology blog.

First, I import team-by-team data from WarrenNolan.com for a little fewer than half of the 351 Div-I teams.  Notice Princeton and Mount St. Mary's are missing a few columns.  Once conference champs are determined in early March, I'll include all those teams in my data pull.

Next, I sort the teams based on a regression formula created from at-large seeding over the last five years.  With that as my starting point, I slide teams up and down a few spots as applicable based on the columns below as well as a few other resume criteria.  

Challenges arise when you look at resumes of teams like Butler and North Carolina with a solid list of quality wins but also multiple losses outside the top-100.  On the flip side, there are teams like Wisconsin and UNC Wilmington who have great records with no bad losses, but mediocre schedules that lack any top-50 quality victories.

As I apply manual adjustments to my at-large seed list, I keep in mind some historical precedents.   Going back at least five years, a team with an RPI better than 28 hasn't been excluded from the at-large field (welcome to the dance, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, & UNC Wilmington).  Similarly, a team with an RPI worse than 73 hasn't received an at-large bid (sorry, Michigan & Indiana).  There are other historical considerations around SOS and wins/losses that I'll apply later in the season, but at this point many of the major conference schools are still suffering from a poor non-conference SOS that will improve with conference play between now and March.

Finally, after seeding the at-large teams and FFO/NFO, I pull in the sub-12 seed conference winners.  At this point in the season I apply very little scrutiny here, and typically just include the team with the best RPI.  A bit further into conference play, I usually switch to the conference record leader.  On Selection Sunday those teams will already be determined so it's just about ranking them accurately.  At that point I will compare resumes a bit closer to try and nail down the correct seed line for as many teams as possible.  There are a lot of Paymon points available down there!

That's pretty much it.  Feel free to hit me up with questions or [constructive] criticism in the comments.

Team Rank W L RPI SOS Top-25 W Top-50 W Top-100W Sub-100L Last10
Baylor 1 14 0 2 12 3 5 9 0 10
Villanova 2 15 1 1 5 3 5 10 0 9
Florida State 3 15 1 11 35 4 6 8 0 10
Creighton 4 15 1 6 21 0 5 7 0 9
Kansas 5 14 1 4 14 1 3 9 1 10
Gonzaga 6 15 0 13 75 2 2 5 0 10
Minnesota 7 15 2 5 8 0 4 8 0 9
Kentucky 8 13 2 8 9 1 4 6 0 8
Oregon 9 14 2 10 20 1 2 6 0 10
Duke 10 14 2 15 37 1 3 5 0 9
Florida 11 12 3 3 1 0 3 7 0 7
Butler 12 14 2 7 18 3 4 9 2 8
Xavier 13 13 2 12 30 1 2 4 0 8
Notre Dame 14 14 2 25 59 1 4 5 0 8
UCLA 15 16 1 21 121 1 2 4 0 9
Louisville 16 13 3 9 3 1 2 4 0 8
Saint Marys College 17 14 1 20 74 1 2 3 0 9
Arizona 18 15 2 14 33 0 1 5 0 9
Cincinnati 19 13 2 17 48 0 1 6 0 9
Virginia 20 12 3 18 16 2 2 5 0 7
SMU 21 14 3 29 64 0 3 4 0 10
Purdue 22 14 3 30 44 1 2 4 0 9
Maryland 23 13 2 35 60 0 1 5 0 8
North Carolina 24 13 3 16 28 0 3 8 2 7
Clemson 25 11 4 33 29 2 4 7 1 8
West Virginia 26 13 2 40 126 1 3 4 0 9
Northwestern 27 13 4 44 57 2 3 4 0 8
USC 28 15 2 32 93 0 1 2 0 8
Arkansas 29 12 3 26 42 0 1 3 0 8
Dayton 30 11 3 23 23 0 1 5 0 9
Seton Hall 31 12 3 38 61 0 1 3 0 8
TCU 32 11 3 36 49 0 1 3 0 7
Virginia Tech 33 12 3 48 104 1 3 4 1 8
Virginia Commonwealth 34 13 3 31 50 1 1 4 1 8
North Carolina State 35 12 4 27 31 0 1 3 0 7
Middle Tennessee 36 12 3 19 25 1 2 5 1 8
South Carolina 37 11 3 37 45 0 0 4 1 7
Wisconsin 38 13 3 49 127 0 0 3 0 9
Pittsburgh 39 12 4 28 22 1 2 5 2 7
UNC Wilmington 40 13 2 24 90 0 0 2 0 9
Michigan State 41 11 6 34 7 1 2 5 0 7
Rhode Island 42 10 5 41 32 1 1 2 0 6
Ole Miss 43 10 5 39 13 0 0 3 0 6
Texas Tech 44 12 3 61 159 0 1 2 0 8
Wake Forest 45 10 6 22 6 0 0 3 0 5
Georgia 46 9 5 51 24 0 0 3 0 6
Iowa State 47 10 4 63 72 0 0 2 1 6
Kansas State 47.1 13 2 52 177 0 0 0 0 8
Miami (FL) 47.2 11 3 70 166 0 1 2 1 7
Indiana 47.3 11 5 109 95 2 3 3 1 6
Michigan 47.4 11 5 86 85 0 1 3 1 6
Illinois 47.5 10 5 43 19 0 2 3 2 7
Oklahoma State 47.6 9 5 54 46 0 0 2 1 5
California 47.7 11 5 64 47 0 1 1 1 6
Houston 47.8 12 4 66 128 0 1 2 1 7
Oakland 48 12 3 65 162 0 0 2 0 8
Nevada 49 14 3 42 118 0 0 2 1 9
UTA 50 10 4 45 102 1 1 2 1 9
Akron 51 11 3 67 218 0 0 1 1 8
Chattanooga 52 10 4 74 200 0 0 2 1 8
Illinois State 53 11 4 46 79 0 0 1 3 8
New Mexico State 54 13 2 84 310 0 0 1 2 10
Florida Gulf Coast 55 9 5 75 120 0 1 1 1 8
Vermont 56 11 5 78 161 0 0 0 0 7
Belmont 57 9 4 107 214 0 0 0 0 8
Monmouth 58 12 5 68 147 0 0 2 3 7
Bucknell 59 12 5 89 221 0 0 1 2 7
UNC Asheville 60 9 6 76 129 0 0 0 2 6
North Dakota State 61 9 5 108 197 0 0 1 3 6
Princeton 62 7 6 116 134

   
North Carolina Central 63 6 5 114 215 0 0 0 2 6
Texas Southern 64 7 9 59 54 0 0 1 1 3
Eastern Washington 65 8 6 131 171 0 0 0 3 6
Nicholls State 66 5 7 92 62 0 0 0 2 4
UC Irvine 67 7 9 158 98 0 0 0 3 4
Mount Saint Mary's 68 5 12 173 82