March 15, 2015 - Final Bracket

1's: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin
2's: Virginia, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
4's: North Carolina, Oklahoma, SMU, Northern Iowa
5's: Louisville, Arkansas, West Virginia, VCU
6's: Utah, Wichita State, Butler, Georgetown
7's: Providence, Michigan State, Oregon, Saint John's
8's: San Diego State, Davidson, Cincinnati, Iowa
9's: Colorado State, Ohio State, Xavier, North Carolina State
10's: Texas, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Temple
11's: Indiana, Georgia, LSU, BYU, Purdue, Tulsa
12's: Stephen F. Austin, Wyoming, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Harvard, Valparaiso, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: New Mexico State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Albany
15's: Northeastern, Belmont, Coastal Carolina, UAB
16's: Texas Southern, Lafayette, Manhattan, North Florida, Robert Morris, Hampton

FFO: Boise State, Ole Miss, Illinois, Old Dominion
NFO: Connecticut, Richmond, Rhode Island, UCLA

March 15, 2015 - Update #2

Update through Sunday's first three games. No surprises in these games as Kentucky, VCU, and Georgia State were victorious. Below are contingencies based on today's remaining two games. I will post my final bracket by 5pm CST.
1. UConn vs. SMU. A UConn win would get them in as either a low 10- or high 11-seed, knocking Tulsa out. No changes with an SMU win.
2. Wisconsin vs. Michigan State. This is the big one! Wisconsin moves up to a 1-seed with a win, replacing Virginia. Michigan State would remain a 7-seed. A Michigan State win would move them up to a 6-seed and leave Wisconsin on the 2-line.

1's: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Virginia
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
4's: North Carolina, Oklahoma, SMU, Northern Iowa
5's: Louisville, Arkansas, West Virginia, VCU
6's: Utah, Wichita State, Butler, Georgetown
7's: Providence, Michigan State, Oregon, Saint John's
8's: San Diego State, Davidson, Cincinnati, Iowa
9's: Colorado State, Ohio State, Xavier, North Carolina State
10's: Texas, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Temple
11's: Indiana, Georgia, LSU, BYU, Purdue, Tulsa
12's: Stephen F. Austin, Wyoming, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Harvard, Valparaiso, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: New Mexico State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Albany
15's: Northeastern, Belmont, Coastal Carolina, UAB
16's: Texas Southern, Lafayette, Manhattan, North Florida, Robert Morris, Hampton

FFO: Boise State, Connecticut, Ole Miss, Illinois
NFO: Old Dominion, Richmond, Rhode Island, UCLA

March 15, 2015 - Initial update

Update through Saturday's games. Below are contingencies based on today's five games. I will post my final bracket by 5pm CST.
1. Kentucky vs. Arkansas - No change either way for Kentucky. Arkansas moves up to a 4-seed with a win, no change with a loss.
2. VCU vs. Dayton - VCU win moves them up to a 5-seed and drops Dayton to a 9-seed. A Dayton win moves them up to an 8-seed and VCU stays on the 6-line
3. Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State. State would be a 13, Southern would be a 14.
4. UConn vs. SMU. A UConn win would get them in as either a low 10- or high 11-seed, knocking Tulsa out. No changes to with an SMU win.
5. Wisconsin vs. Michigan State. This is the big one! Wisconsin moves up to a 1-seed with a win, replacing Virginia. Michigan State would remain a 7-seed. A Michigan State win would move them up to a 6-seed and leave Wisconsin on the 2-line.

1's: Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Virginia
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
4's: North Carolina, Oklahoma, SMU, Louisville
5's: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia, Utah
6's: Wichita State, VCU, Butler, Georgetown
7's: Providence, Michigan State, Oregon, Saint John's
8's: San Diego State, Davidson, Cincinnati, Iowa
9's: Colorado State, Dayton, Ohio State, Xavier
10's: North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Temple
11's: Georgia, Indiana, LSU, BYU, Purdue, Tulsa
12's: Stephen F. Austin, Wyoming, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Harvard, Valparaiso, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: New Mexico State, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Albany
15's: Coastal Carolina, Northeastern, Belmont, UAB
16's: Texas Southern, Lafayette, Manhattan, North Florida, Robert Morris, Hampton

FFO: Boise State, Connecticut, Ole Miss, Illinois
NFO: Old Dominion, Richmond, Rhode Island, UCLA

March 14, 2015 - (only games through Friday, March 13)

Update through Friday's games. Not sure if I'll be able to get another update posted this evening.

1's: Kentucky, Villanova, Virginia, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Baylor
4's: Oklahoma, North Carolina, West Virginia, Louisville
5's: SMU, Utah, Northern Iowa, Arkansas
6's: Butler, Wichita STate, Georgetown, VCU
7's: Providence, Oregon, San Diego State, Saint John's
8's: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Xavier, Davidson
9's: Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Texas
10's: Ohio State, Temple, North Carolina State, Dayton
11's: Georgia, Tulsa, Purdue, Indiana, Boise State
12's: LSU, BYU, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Valparaiso, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14's: North Dakota State, Coastal Carolina, Northeastern, Belmont
15's: Manhattan, Stony Brook, New Mexico, State, UC Irvine
16's: Middle Tennessee, Texas Southern, North Florida, Lafayette, Robert Morris, Delaware State

FFO: Rhode Island, Connecticut, Ole Miss, Richmond
NFO: Illinois, UCLA, Texas A&M, Miami (FL)

March 13, 2015

Unfortunately, I'm short on spare time this morning, so I'll try to get another update posted later this afternoon with more commentary. The one thing I'll say is that the Gophers are most likely bound for the CBI after last night's loss to Ohio State. I'll also try to post an updated NIT bracket today, but at first glance, it looks like they dropped at least four spots, and they were the 2nd in as of yesterday, so probably not gonna happen...

Today's bracket update.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina
5's: Georgetown, SMU, Utah, Northern Iowa
6's: Wichita State, Arkansas, Butler, VCU
7's: Providence, Colorado State, San Diego State, Cincinnati
8's: Saint John's, Davidson, Oregon, Ohio State
9's: Iowa, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Texas
10's: Xavier, North Carolina State, Indiana, Temple
11's: Georgia, Dayton, LSU, Tulsa, Purdue
12's: Boise State, Ole Miss, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford, Buffalo
13's: Valparaiso, Harvard, Louisiana Tech, UC Davis
14's: North Dakota State, Georgia State, Northeastern, Eastern Washington
15's: North Carolina Central, Belmont, Stony Brook, New Mexico State
16's: Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, Texas Southern, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris

FFO: Richmond, Texas A&M, UCLA, Connecticut
NFO: BYU, Rhode Island, Illinois, Old Dominion

Any teams not listed above will need to win their tourney to secure an automatic bid.

March 12, 2015 - NIT

Minnesota bolstered their NIT chances with a win last night, and could get some help tonight with losses by a few teams ahead of them. A win over Ohio State tonight would lock up their invite.


1's: Illinois, Boise State, Connecticut, UCLA
2's: Richmond, Stanford, Miami (FL), Rhode Island
3's: Alabama, BYU, Tennessee, Florida
4's: Michigan, Saint Mary's College, Pittsburgh, UTEP
5's: Memphis, George Washington, Minnesota, South Carolina
6's: Louisiana Tech, Murray State, Central Michigan, Iona
7's: William & Mary, South Dakota State, Albany, Georgia Southern
8's: Bucknell, Sacramento State, Charleston Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Kansas State, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Wyoming
NFO: Green Bay, Clemson, UNLV, Illinois State

March 12, 2015

Lafayette sealed up the 12th auto-bid last night. There are 20 left, most of which will be decided on Saturday. Actually, of those 20, only 9 have potential bubble impacts. 11 of them are for conferences with no at-large contenders, so they'll simply be filling a 12-16 seed line.

There really wasn't a whole lot of noteworthy results last night. Of the games I had an eye on, the favorite won each. The only bubble impact was the loss of Pittsburgh, who fell to NC State. Stanford and Miami each held on with wins in their respective tournaments, but it will get tougher for both teams tonight.
-Stanford faces a Utah team that has lost three of its last five, including most recently at Washington, who the Cardinal beat last night. With a win tonight, the Cardinal would advance to face Oregon, and those two wins may be enough to put them in the field, especially if a few teams ahead of them stumble.
-Miami faces Notre Dame in a rematch of a very hard fought Irish victory at Notre Dame in January. Miami's road is significantly more challenging, with Duke waiting for them tomorrow if they survive tonight.

Here are a few more games tonight with significant bubble implications:
-Alabama vs. Florida. Alabama is in a really bad place. A win against Florida is unfortunately not enough to get them over the bubble, and they'd face Kentucky tomorrow if they pass tonight's test. Barring a miraculous perfection-ending win over the Wildcats, the Tide will be rolling into the NIT come Sunday.
-Auburn vs. Texas A&M. The Aggie's saving grace is that they have no bad losses. Otherwise their resume would have them on the outside of the bubble. As it stands, I have them as one of the last four in, and a loss tonight would knock them out. To make matters worse, a win doesn't gaurantee a spot either, as they'd then face fellow bubbler LSU tomorrow night for what could be a winner-take-bid situation. Unless several other bubble teams falter, either A&M or LSU could be NIT bound tomorrow.
-Middle Tennessee vs. Old Dominion. OD is in an interesting spot. They would be a FFO team if they weren't my favorite to win C-USA. If they were to make it to the finals and lose, they could still have a chance at one of the last few at-large bids if other teams slip.
-USC vs. UCLA. UCLA is in a similar spot as Alabama. Even if they advance tonight, they'd most likely face Arizona tomorrow. To be fair, UCLA over Zona wouldn't quite be the upset of the year like Bama over KY, but it's still a sufficiently difficult task that I'm ready to put a fork in the Bruins.
-Northwestern vs. Indiana. Indiana's 3/4/8 quality win line with just 1 bad loss is relatively safe at this point, but a loss tonight would put them in a precarious position. It would be their 13th overall and 2nd bad loss, enough to move them into a slightly stickier situation.
-South Florida vs. Connecticut. UConn likely has the easiest path of all teams currently outside the bubble. They'll be heavily favored tonight, then would face Cincy and Tulsa, both of whom the Huskies have beaten already this season. The only thing working against UConn is their 13 regular season losses. If they manage to win only two of these three games, they'd end at 19-14, which could be a prohibitively poor record, even with 5 top-50 wins.
-South Carolina vs. Ole Miss. Mississippi needs at least one win to feel secure with their spot on the inside of the bubble. Wins over South Carolina and Georgia would clinch an at-large bid, but a loss to SC would most likely drop them to the FFO.

Finally, a couple top-25 games to watch that will impact the seedings towards the top of the bracket.
-UNC vs. Louisville. At 1/2/9 quality wins, Louisville is in need of another top-25 win to bolster their top-4 seed resume. With 10-losses, UNC could really use a deep ACC run in order to reinforce a top-5 seed with double digit losses. Their #2 SOS and 1/4/9 quality win line both help, but the committee may see a 22-11 record as prohibitive to a top-20 seeding.
-Baylor vs. West Virginia. This quarterfinal matchup is all you need to see to understand how deep the Big 12 is this year. 70% of their conference will be in the field, and all 7 are legitimate Sweet 16 teams. Ultimately, a loss in this game won't seriously hurt either team. In fact, I don't think either would drop a seed line. Baylor's upside is minimal - they could potentially pass Maryland for the top 3-seed, especially if the Terps fail to win the Big 10 tourney. WVU, on the other hand, could move up to the 3-line with a win tonight. This would likely require losses by both Notre Dame and Oklahoma, but it could happen. The winner faces Kansas, who swept Baylor and split with WVU - losing by just 1 in Morgantown.


Okay...enough rambling, here's today's update.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgetown
5's: North Carolina, Utah, SMU, Northern Iowa
6's: Wichita State, Arkansas, Butler, VCU
7's: Colorado State, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: Oklahoma State, Texas, San Diego State, Cincinnati
9's: Oregon, Ohio State, North Carolina State, Xavier
10's: Michigan State, Davidson, Indiana, Georgia
11's: Dayton, Temple, LSU, Tulsa, Texas A&M
12's: Ole Miss, Purdue, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Valparaiso, UC Davis
14's: North Dakota State, Georgia State, Northeastern, Eastern Washington
15's: North Carolina Central, Belmont, Stony Brook, New Mexico State
16's: Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, Texas Southern, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris

FFO: Illinois, Boise State, Connecticut, UCLA
NFO: Richmond, Stanford, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Alabama (Next FIVE Out)

Any teams not listed above will need to win their tourney to secure an automatic bid.

March 11, 2015 - NIT

Two more NIT auto-bids were secured last night as St. Francis (NY) and South Dakota State lost in their respective conference tournament finals. That brings the current total to 6, with additional 6 likely. That leaves just 24 at-large spots in the field, and makes it even that more important for the Gophers to secure two wins in the Big10 tournament.


1's: Ole Miss, Illinois, Connecticut, Richmond
2's: UCLA, Miami (FL), Stanford, Pittsburgh
3's: Alabama, BYU, Rhode Island, Michigan
4's: Kansas State, Florida, Memphis, Tennessee
5's: Seton Hall, South Carolina, Saint Mary's College, Minnesota
6's: Louisiana Tech, Murray State, Central Michigan, William & Mary
7's: Iona, South Dakota State, Albany, Georgia Southern
8's: Bucknell, Sacramento State, Charleston Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Clemson, Vanderbilt, UTEP, George Washington
NFO: Wyoming, Arizona State, UNLV, Green Bay

March 11, 2015

Four more big winners last night, and four days left until showtime!
The favorites split last night's conference finals, with Gonzaga and Valpo winning the WCC and Horizon Leagues, respectively, and #2 seeds North Dakota State and Robert Morris winning the Summit League and Northeast Conference. No big surprises from these results, in fact only a Gonzaga loss would have carried shock value. As a result of that Zags victory, BYU will likely be left out of the NCAA field.

Just one ticket to punch tonight, and in a 180 from last night's chalk finales, #4 Lafayette will take on #6 American U in the Patriot League final. Neither of these teams were on many radars (and likely zero brackets) just a week ago. I'll pick the favorite Lafayette here, but given my 5 for 10 conference final pick 'em record so far, it could go either way.

Most of the remaining conference tournaments will begin this evening, with the last five starting tomorrow. Below are a few games with NCAA tournament implications worth keeping an eye on.
-UNC vs. Boston College. The Tar Heels could move up from the 5 line to a 4-seed with a deep run in the ACC tourney, possibly even a 3-seed if they win it. Conversely, they'd drop to a 6 or even 7 with a loss tonight.
Pittsburgh vs. NC State. Both teams are in tenuous positions, but on opposite sides of the bubble. Pittsburgh needs at least 2 ACC tourney wins to put themselves in serious at-large contention, 3 would put them in. NC State's at-large bid looks to be fairly safe with a #5 SOS and 3/4/8 quality wins (top-25/-50/-100), but a loss would be their 13th, which would drop them to an 11-seed and may mean playing a first-four game in Dayton.
VA Tech vs. Miami (FL). The Hurricanes need this game, and a win against Notre Dame in the quarterfinals to put themselves back in at-large contention. They have 4 bad losses working against them, but a trip to the ACC final should secure a bid.
Texas vs. Texas Tech. Texas is in a similar spot to NC State with 12-losses. They also have a solid resume - despite a modest 2/3/6 quality wins, they have the #12 SOS and no bad losses. A loss to the Red Raiders tonight would drop them to an 11-seed at best, and possibly a trip to Dayton.
Washington vs. Stanford. The Cardinal are another team at the very back end of the bubble, needing at least two, likely three, wins to get an at-large bid.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgetown
5's: Northern Iowa, North Carolina, Utah, Wichita State
6's: SMU, Arkansas, Butler, VCU
7's: Colorado State, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Texas, North Carolina State
9's: Cincinnati, Ohio State, Xavier, Oregon
10's: Michigan State, Indiana, Georgia, Davidson
11's: Temple, Dayton, LSU, Tulsa, Texas A&M
12's: Boise State, Purdue, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Buffalo, Harvard, Valparaiso, UC Davis
14's: North Dakota State, Georgia State, Northeastern, Eastern Washington
15's: North Carolina Central, Belmont, Stony Brook, New Mexico State
16's: Coastal Carolina, Lafayette, Texas Southern, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris

FFO: Ole Miss, Illinois, Connecticut, Richmond
NFO: UCLA, Miami (FL), Stanford, Pittsburgh

Others Still Alive: Alabama, Rhode Island...that's it folks. Any teams not listed above will need to win their tourney to secure an automatic bid.

March 10, 2015 - NIT

Minnesota was dealt a tough blow last night, after Iona and William & Mary were both upset in their respective conference finals. That adds two more to the NIT automatic qualifiers, making it even more crucial for the Gophers to secure two victories in the Big Ten tourney, which gets underway tomorrow night.


1's: Illinois, Boise State, BYU, Connecticut
2's: Richmond, UCLA, Stanord, Miami (FL)
3's: Alabama, Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Kansas State
4's: Saint Mary's College, Florida, Seton Hall, Michigan
5's: South Carolina, Memphis, Tennessee, Minnesota
6's: Murray State, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Clemson
7's: Central Michigan, Iona, Willian & Mary, Albany
8's: Georgia Southern, Bucknell, Sacramento State, Charleston Southern

FFO: Illinois State, UTEP, George Washington, UNLV
NFO: Wyoming, Arizona State, Yale, Vanderbilt

March 10, 2015

Just five action packed days left before Selection Sunday!
Three more automatic bids were secured last night. Northeastern, Wofford, and Manhattan joined the field, bringing the total to seven. Wofford was nearly upset in the SoCon final by Furman, who would have been the first 21-loss team in more than 40 years to earn an NCAA bid.

Four more conferences will finalize their auto-bids this evening:
-Horizon League: The top two teams all season will square off for the conference championship. I'm going to give #1 Valparaiso the very slight edge over #2 UW-Green Bay in this one. They split the regular season matchups, with each team squeaking out a very narrow home win.
-Northeast Conference: In another chalk final, #1 St. Francis-Brooklyn will face #2 Robert Morris. And again, the teams split their regular season meetings, except here the road team narrowly won. Once again I'll give the edge to the top seed in a close finish.
-Summit League: There's a trend here...#1 vs #2 yet again. Top seed South Dakota State faces #2 North Dakota State, and they split the season series with the home team taking each game. And again, I'll give the slight edge to the top seeded Jackrabbits.
-West Coast Conference: Although this one is yet another #1 vs #2 matchup, the likely outcome here is a bit more obvious. Gonzaga will be heavy favorites against BYU, who desperately needs this win to secure their at-large bid.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Louisville, Georgetown
5's: Utah, Northern Iowa, North Carolina, Wichita State
6's: SMU, Arkansas, Butler, Colorado State
7's: VCU, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Texas, North Carolina State
9's: Cincinnati, Ohio State, Xavier, Michigan State
10's: Oregon, Davidson, Indiana, Temple
11's: LSU, Georgia, Dayton, Tulsa, Texas A&M
12's: Ole Miss, Purdue, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Harvard, Buffalo, UC Davis, Valparaiso
14's: Georgia State, Northeastern, South Dakota State, Eastern Washington
15's: Stony Brook, Belmont, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State
16's: Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY), North Florida, Manhattan

FFO: Illinois, Boise State, BYU, Connecticut
NFO: Richmond, UCLA, Stanford, Miami (FL)

March 9, 2015 - NIT

Minnesota layed a major egg by losing to Penn State last night. Their NIT hopes aren't completely dead, but now on major life support. They will need at least one victory in the Big 10 tournament in order to secure a spot. They may need a second tournament win, depending on how many other regular season champs fail to win their own tournaments.

The loss dropped Minnesota to the #11 seed, which may actually be a blessing in disguise based on the way the Big 10 tournament bracked lined up. As the #10 seed, Minnesota would have had to face #7 Indiana followed by #2 Maryland, both of which the Gophers failed to put up much of a fight against during the regular season. Instead, as the #11 they get to start against #14 Rutgers, who they beat during the regular season. If they win that game, they'll face #6 Ohio State, who needed Overtime to beat the Gophers back on January 6th. The Buckeyes have had a rough patch lately, losing 3 of their last 6, including an absolute drubbing from the top-seeded Badgers. Finally, if they manage to get past those two games, they'd face #3 Michigan State, who they just beat in East Lansing two weeks earlier. It's still a quite daunting path to the semis, but I'd rather have to play three games against beatable teams than two against opponents we've already lost miserably to.


1's: Illinois, Ole Miss, Connecticut, UCLA
2's: Richmond, Alabama, BYU, Miami (FL)
3's: Pittsburgh, Stanford, Saint Mary's College, Rhode Island
4's: Seton Hall, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas State
5's: Florida, Michigan, Memphis, Minnesota, Clemson
6's: Clemson, Murray State, George Washington, Central Michigan
7's: Valparaiso, Louisiana Tech, High Point, Albany
8's: Georgia Southern, Bucknell, Sacramento State, Charleston Southern

FFO: Massachusetts, UTEP, Wyoming, Arizona State
NFO: UNLV, Vanderbilt, Sam Houston State, Illinois State

March 9, 2015

Wow, what a weekend full of upset surprises.
First, Murray State lost to Belmont in the Ohio Valley final, ruining their perfect conference record, and their chances for an NCAA bid. I will admit some enjoyment in the vindication of my position that many AP voters had no idea what they're doing, as Murray State clearly had no business being ranked. It's funny how they went from the 25th ranked team in the country to receiving not a single vote today.
-Then, Wichita State lost in the MVC semifinal to Illinois State, who nearly took down Northern Iowa in the final. UNI pulled off the victory, allowing bubble teams to breathe a sigh of releif
-Finally, after a dramatic Yale victory over Harvard in what should have sealed their tournament entry, the Bulldogs lost to Dartmouth to fall back into a tie with Harvard for the conference regular season. There will now be a tie-breaker rubber match game played between Harvard and Yale on Saturday the 14th.

In additional to Belmont and Northern Iowa, two other teams punched their ticket over the weekend.
-Coastal Carolina beat Gardner Webb (who had previously upset favorite High Point) in the semifinal on Saturday, and then cruised past Winthrop in Sunday's Big South final.
-North Florida beat South Carolina Upstate on Sunday to claim the Atlantic Sun bid.

Three more teams will punch their ticket in conference tourney finals tonight:
-Northeastern will face William & Mary in the Colonial Athletic Association championship. The teams split their regular season meetings, each won by the home team. I give the slight edge to William & Mary.
-Surprise Furman plays Wofford for the Southern Conference bid. After winning just five regular season games, Furman advanced to the final, but will be huge underdogs to a Wofford team that is currently on the at-large bubble and likely to receive one of the first few automatic bids outside the at-large field (12- or 13-seed) if they win tonight.
The Manhattan Jaspers play the Iona Gaels in the MAAC finals. Iona is heavy favorites, with only three conference losses on the season.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Notre Dame
4's: Oklahoma, Utah, Louisville, West Virginia
5's: North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Wichita State
6's: SMU, Arkansas, Butler, Colorado State
7's: VCU, Providence, Saint John's, Iowa
8's: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Texas, North Carolina State
9's: Cincinnati, Ohio State, Davidson, Michigan State
10's: Oregon, Indiana, Temple, LSU
11's: Xavier, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tulsa, Dayton
12's: Purdue, Boise State, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Harvard, UC Davis
14's: Iona, William & Mary, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
15's: South Dakota State, Stony Brook, Belmont, North Carolina Central
16's: New Mexico State, Coastal Carolina, Lafayett, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY), North Florida

FFO: Illinois, Ole Miss, Connecticut, UCLA
NFO: Richmond, Alabama, BYU, Miami (FL)

March 6, 2015

Tough loss for the Gophers last night. They played extremely well for most of the game, there's just only so much you can do against a team as talented and well disciplined as Wisconsin. As good as the Gophers were playing on defense, the Badgers still managed to shoot more than 60% in the first half, including a dizzying start of something like 9 for 11, including 4 for 4 from beyond the arc. Ultimately, it was the expected result and really didn't hurt the Gophers' NIT bid. If anything, the impressive level of play against such dominant competition may have improved their resume, even in a home loss. Unfortunately that's not captured in the resume metrics - at least not those that I utilize.
In other news and notes...
-Davidson crushed VCU to slide well into the at-large field.
-Florida Gulf Coast's season ended with a semifinal loss in the Atlantic Sun tournament. South Carolina Upstate will play North Florida for the NCAA bid on Sunday.
-Ohio Valley semifinals are tonight, pitting [Dick Vitale's] #19 Murray State against Morehead State and Belmont versus Eastern Kentucky. The winners will play tomorrow for the first NCAA auto-bid.
-Harvard and Yale play this evening for what will most likely be the Ivy League auto-bid. Both teams play again tomorrow, in what should be relatively non-competitive regular season finales.
Both Missouri Valley juggernauts will get their first conference tournament action tonight, and will most likely both advance to Sunday's final in what will be a fantastic game to watch (1pm CST on CBS).
All-in-all, we'll have five auto-bids awarded by Sunday evening.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iiowa State, Utah
4's: Wichita State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Arkansas
5's: West Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Northern Iowa
6's: Georgetown, SMU, Butler, Providence
7's: VCU, Colorado State, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Saint John's, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Dayton
9's: Texas, Oregon, Cincinnati, North Carolina State
10's: Davidson, Indiana, Michigan State, Xavier
11's: Tulsa, Ole Miss, Georgia, Temple, LSU
12's: Texas A&M, Boise State, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Murray State, Harvard, Buffalo, Green Bay
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: William & Mary, Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, North Carolina Central
16's: New Mexico State, Stony Brook, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY), North Florida

FFO: Illinois, Connecticut, Purdue, Pittsburgh
NFO: UCLA, Richmond, Stanford, Miami (FL)
...and just for fun...
NNFO: BYU, Kansas State, Saint Mary's College, Central Michigan
NNNFO: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Wyoming, Rhode Island

March 5, 2015 - NIT

As of today, the Gophers look to be safely in the NIT. A win against Wisconsin tonight would bump them up to a 1- or 2-seed, however a loss really wouldn't hurt much, if at all. What would hurt is a loss on Sunday against Penn State, or a first round Big10 tournament loss to a bottom-feeder Big10 team. Unless Northwestern finds a way to beat Iowa in Iowa City, the Gophers need to win just one of their remaining two games to avoid a day-one game in the Big 10 tourney.

If today's standings hold, Minnesota would draw Indiana in the #7-#10 day-two matchup. There is an outside chance of catching Michigan for the #9 seed, but that would require Gopher victories over Wisconsin and Penn State, and a Michigan loss against visiting [last-place] Rutgers.

Indiana currently holds a tie-breaker over Illinois, and finishes the regular season at home against the Spartans. The only way the Illini can gain the 7-seed would be winning their final game at Purdue and a Michigan State win over Indiana.

There are currently 11 conferences where the regular season winner is a lock for an at-large bid. That leaves 20 potential NIT auto-bids (Ivy League regular season winner gets NCAA auto-bid). Assuming the favorite will win in slightly more than half of those conference tourneys, we would expect there to be between 8-10 auto bids from these 20 tournaments. Most of these teams will fall to the 7- and 8-seeds in the NIT bracket, with the possibility of one or two sneaking a couple seeds higher.

1's: Davidson, Connecticut, Stanford, UCLA
2's: Purdue, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Miami (FL)
3's: BYU, Kansas State, Central Michigan, Minnesota
4's: Rhode Island, Saint Mary's College, Seton Hall, Michigan
5's: South Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Wyoming
6's: Tennessee, UTEP, Memphis, Louisiana Tech
7's: Clemson, Valbaraiso, William & Mary, Albany
8's: Sacramento State, Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, North Florida

FFO: Yale, Massachusetts, Illinois State, California
NFO: Toledo, Bowling Green, George Washington, Kent State

March 5, 2015

-Notre Dame won the 3-seed showdown last night, bumping Louisville all the way to a #5.
-Providence ended Seton Hall's at-large hopes and solidified their own resume.
-No major upsets thus far in conference tournament play. In fact, only 2 of 13 tournament games yesterday ended in an upset: Longwood over Presbyterian and Saint Francis (PA) over Mount St. Mary's.
-The MVC tournament gets underway tonight, with the 7-10 seeds in action.
-Play also begins in the MAAC tourney, where the Iona Gaels will be favored.

-Finally, tonight's game against the Badgers may be the Gophers' last chance to add to their resume before Selection Sunday. It would be an unlikely win, but would be enough to put the Gophers back onto the bubble. They could still use some help from Michigan State sneaking up into the top-25, Illinois sliding back into the top-50, and Northwestern climbing into the top-100.
As for plan B, the Gophers are safely in the NIT field as of today, but losses to Penn State and/or a lower opening round Big10 conference opponent could change that. I'll try to get an NIT update posted later today.


Disclaimer about today's bracket update: due to a minor anomaly that's been bugging me for awhile now, I made a slight tweak to my regression model to better support seeding of teams near the bubble. If you notice any unexpected changes from yestesrday's bracket, that's why. I'll do some additional analysis after posting and may make some further tweaks tomorrow.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Notre Dame
4's: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Utah, North Carolina
5's: Louisville, Northern Iowa, West Virginia, Arkansas
6's: Butler, Georgetown, SMU, VCU
7's: Colorado State, Providence, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Texas, Dayton, Saint John's, Ohio State
9's: Oklahoma State, Oregon, North Carolina State, Cincinnati
10's: Tulsa, Indiana, Michigan State, Boise State
11's: Georgia, Temple, Illinois, Xavier, Ole Miss
12's: LSU, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford
13's: Murray State, Harvard, Buffalo, Green Bay
14's: Iona, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Northeastern, North Carolina Central
16's: Stony Brook, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Davidson, Syracuse, Connecticut, Stanford
NFO: UCLA, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Miami (FL), BYU, Kansas State, Central Michigan
NNNFO: Minnesota, Rhode Island, Saint Mary's College, Seton Hall

March 4, 2015

-Kentucky managed to hold off Georgia last night to start their season 30-0.
-Notre Dame travels to Louisville tonight in what will likely be a battle for a 3-seed.
-Providence plays at Seton Hall, who desperately needs quality wins to move onto the bubble.

Conference tournament play has begun, and the first few teams (outside the Ivy League) have been officially eliminated from NCAA tournament play.
-Ohio Valley conference will be the first to crown an auto-bid, on Saturday. Murray State is the heavy favorite there, with big help from a double-bye bracket where they begin play in the semifinal.
-Big South, Missouri Valley, and Atlantic Sun all hold their championship on Sunday. High Point is the favorite in the Big South, and North Florida in the Atlantic Sun. In the MVC tourney we should see a fantastic rubber match in the Wichita State-Northern Iowa battle; each team won by double digits on their home court. The winner will likely be a 3 or 4 seed, and the loser a 5 or 6.
-Speaking of the Ivy League, they hold their de-facto championship on Friday, as Yale plays at Harvard. The two teams are currently tied atop the conference standings, and Harvard won their home meeting in early February - a two-point nailbiter. Without a conference tournament, the Ivy League regular season champion is awarded the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Although both teams will have one remaining game on Saturday, both will be heavy favorites.


1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Louisville
4's: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Utah, Notre Dame
5's: Northern Iowa, West Virginia, North Carolina, Georgetown
6's: SMU, Arkansas, VCU, Butler
7's: Colorado State, Dayton, Iowa, San Diego State
8's: Ohio State, Providence, Indiana, Saint John's
9's: Oklahoma State, Tulsa, Boise State, Oregon
10's: Texas, North Carolina State, Xavier, Michigan State
11's: Georgia, Temple, Texas A&M, Illinois, Cincinnati
12's: Davidson, LSU, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: South Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Northeastern, Albany
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Ole Miss, UCLA, Syracuse, Connecticut
NFO: Purdue, Pittsburgh, BYU, Richmond
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Stanford, Miami (FL), Minnesota, Kansas State
NNNFO: Seton Hall, George Washington, Wyoming, Rhode Island

March 3, 2015

There was a lot of action on my 3-line yesterday. Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma in Ames, and Baylor lost to a Texas team that had dropped 8 of 11 and was desperate for a resume booster. After the dust settled, not a whole lot changed on my bracket. Baylor dropped two snake spots, but maintained a spot on the 3-line thanks to a bevy of quality wins, and a #3 SOS. Oklahoma dropped just one snake line, but since they were previously on the end of the 3-line that means down to a #4 for the Sooners, replaced by Louisville.

In other games, Boise State knocked off San Diego State, solidifying their tournament selection. Barring any major collapses, the Mountain West will have three teams in the field (including Colorado State), possibly four if Utah State or Wyoming pulls off a conference tournament victory.

Tonight will be Kentucky's final road game of the season, against a formidable Georgia team. The Wildcats will still be heavy favorites, but this may be their last tough test before they reach the Sweet 16. The game will be on the 4-letter flagship at 8pm CST if you're interested.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, Louisville
4's: Oklahoma, Wichita State, Utah, West Virginia
5's: Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Butler
6's: North Carolina, Georgetown, SMU, VCU
7's: Indiana, Colorado State, Dayton, Ohio State
8's: San Diego State, Iowa, Providence, Saint John's
9's: Tulsa, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Xavier
10's: Oregon, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas
11's: Michigan State, Temple, North Carolina State, Illinois, Cincinnati
12's: LSU, Davidson, Old Dominion, Stephen F. Austin, Buffalo
13's: Wofford, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Stony Brook
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: Syracuse, Connecticut, UCLA, BYU
NFO: Purdue, Stanford, Miami (FL), Kansas State
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Richmond, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Minnesota
NNNFO: George Washington, Clemson, Alabama, Wyoming

March 2, 2015

Happy Monday, and welcome to March! With just 13 days until Selection Sunday, things are really starting to heat up. Despite a home loss to BYU, I have Gonzaga barely hanging on to the last #2 seed. A loss in the WCC tournament, and deep conference tournament runds by one of the current 3-seeds could knock them down. It will be interesting to see how pollsters rate the Zags' loss, and how far down they'll fall once the updated rankings come out later today.

1's: Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
2's: Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
3's: Maryland, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
4's: Louisville, Utah, Wichita State, West Virginia
5's: Notre Dame, Butler, Northern Iowa, Arkansas
6's: SMU, North Carolina, Georgetown, VCU
7's: Indiana, Ohio State, San Diego State, Oklahoma State
8's: Colorado State, Dayton, Iowa, Providence
9's: Tulsa, Saint John's, Texas A&M, Xavier
10's: Michigan State, Oregon, Temple, Texas
11's: Boise State, Georgia, Illinois North Carolina State, Ole Miss
12's: Davidson, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Buffalo, Green Bay, Iona, Harvard
14's: Murray State, UC Davis, Georgia State, High Point
15's: Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, Northeastern, Stony Brook
16's: North Carolina Central, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Bucknell, Texas Southern, Saint Francis (NY)

FFO: LSU, Syracuse, Connecticut, BYU
NFO: Kansas State, UCLA, Stanford, Purdue
...and just for fun...
NNFO: Pittsburgh, Richmond, Miami (FL), Seton Hall
NNNFO: Minnesota, George Washington, Alabama, Clemson