Sunday, March 16, 2014

Actual Selection Results and Bracketology Scoring

Well, the results are in.  After several surprises and snubs, my bracketology score (explained below) was 330.  That's 9 points better than my bracket last year, and hopefully good enough for a ranking in the top half of the 100+ bracketologists in the matrix.

The "Paymon" bracketology score works like this: 6 points for a team on the correct seed line, 4 points for a team within one seed line, and 3 points for a team correctly picked in the field but more than one line away from its actual seed.

I ended up with 35 teams on the correct line (210 pts), 24 teams within one seed line (96 pts), 8 teams picked correctly in the field but more than one line away from their actual seed (24 pts), and one team picked incorrectly - SMU instead of NC State.

It's been interesting watching true NCAA analysts fail miserably at wearing bracketology hats.  Doug Gotlieb said Louisville as a #4 was the biggest surprise he's ever seen, and Ron Wellman (selection committee chair) gave him a good lesson in bracketology.  It's about a team's entire resume from November through March, not just how good they are playing on Selection Sunday.

My top three surprises are...
1. New Mexico on the 7-line.  The committee clearly weighed a lack of top-100 wins very heavily for New Mexico, but not for their fellow Mountain West team San Diego State, who had one fewer top-100 win than the Lobos and lesser or equal metrics in every other resume field except for wins/losses.
2. St. Joseph's on the 10-line.  As I noted earlier this afternoon, I clearly reached a bit too far in putting the Hawks on the 7-line, but their resume certainly deserves better than a 10.  Their top-25, top-50, and top-100 numbers are better than six or seven of the eight teams on the 8 and 9 lines (all but GWU and maybe Kentucky).  Pittsburgh in particular is a huge stretch at the first 9-seed, as their RPI, SOS, top-25 wins, top-50 wins, top-100 wins, and last-10 record are worse than St. Joe's.
3. NC State in the field.  I'm not particularly surprised that SMU didn't get into the field, as Ron Wellman made a good point about their poor SOS.  What surprises me is that NC State was chosen over teams like Minnesota, Florida State, and Missouri.  I believe that's a bit of over-reaction by the committee to their win over Syracuse.

March 16, 2014 - Final Selection Sunday Prediction

As Florida and Michigan State have finalized their respective conference championships, below are my final predictions for the bracket.

1's: Florida, Wichita State, Arizona, Kansas 
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Iowa State, Virginia
3's: Michigan, Duke, Creighton, Syracuse 
4's: Louisville, San Diego State, New Mexico, Michigan State
5's: VCU, Massachusetts, Cincinnati, North Carolina 
6's: UCLA, Kentucky, Saint Louis, Ohio State 
7's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Saint Joseph's 
8's: Baylor, George Washington, Texas, Memphis 
9's: Gonzaga, Colorado, Kansas State, Dayton 
10's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Providence 
11's: Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier, Iowa, SMU 
12's: BYU, Tennessee, North Dakota State, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin 
13's: Manhattan, Delaware, Western Michigan, New Mexico State 
14's: Tulsa, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette 
15's: North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Weber State 
16's: Wofford, Albany, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Cal Poly, Texas Southern 

FFO: Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, California 
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

March 16, 2014 - Update #2

I'm very surprised how many ESPN & CBS pundits have penned Michigan into the #1 line, some saying they'll get it even if they lose to State today. The two reasons I've been hearing this morning for giving Michigan a #1 are their Big Ten regular season win, and 10 top-50 wins (3rd in the nation). I think both of these reasons are misguided. Jamie Zaninovich (selection committee member) said last week that the committee really doesn't consider finishing position in either conference regular season or tournament. They look at who you beat and where you beat them. Beyond that, other accolaides are really just fluff. Regarding Michigan's top-50 wins, I brought it up before, and I'll say it again...four of those wins are against Nebraska and Minnesota - 48th and 50th, respectively. So, the Wolverines have 6 top-47 wins - tied for 10th in the field (Kansas has 12). I believe the committee is too smart to rely so heavily on the arbitrary Fifty number; they'll consider each team's entire body of work. If Michigan wins today, and gets a #1 seed, I won't be surprised...all I'm saying is that it's far from the sure thing that the TV analysts will have you believe.

I currently give the nod to Kansas for the final #1 seed, by a very close margin over Wisconsin and Villanova based on the Jayhawks' incredibly tough schedule, number of quality wins, and lack of bad losses. Really, the #4 through #13 overall seeds are separated by very, very close margins.

Some have Louisville (my #13) as a possible #1 seed, but I'm having trouble placing them above any of my #3 seeds, based on their overall resume, and definitely not above any of the twos.  Syracuse has struggled of late, but still has a boatload of quality wins (6 top-40, 11 top-65).  Same for Creighton, Duke, and Virginia.

It will be interesting to see how high St Joseph's moves after winning the Atlantic 10.  I've got them up to a #7, but it may be a bit reactionary to move them up past George Washington and Baylor, who both may have better overall resumes.

Here's where I have things as of 3pm, with three contingencies below.

1's: Florida, Wichita State, Arizona, Kansas 
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Michigan, Iowa State
3's: Virginia, Duke, Creighton, Syracuse 
4's: Louisville, San Diego State, New Mexico, VCU
5's: Massachusetts, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Michigan State 
6's: UCLA, Kentucky, Saint Louis, Ohio State 
7's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Saint Joseph's 
8's: Baylor, George Washington, Texas, Memphis 
9's: Gonzaga, Colorado, Kansas State, Dayton 
10's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Providence 
11's: Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier, Iowa, SMU 
12's: BYU, Tennessee, North Dakota State, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin 
13's: Manhattan, Delaware, Western Michigan, New Mexico State 
14's: Tulsa, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette 
15's: North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Weber State 
16's: Wofford, Albany, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Cal Poly, Texas Southern 

FFO: Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, California 
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

Contingency #1:
If Michigan State holds on to beat Michigan, the Spartans will move up to the final #4 seed and VCU will fall to the first #5 seed ahead of UMass.  Michigan will fall to the first #3 seed, with Virginia sliding up to the final #2 seed behind Iowa State.

Contingency #2:
If Michigan comes back to beat State, the Wolverines will move up to the first #2 seed, ahead of Wisconsin.  Michigan State will remain in the same position.

Contingency #3:
If Kentucky come back to bead Florida, they will move up to a #5 seed, ahead of UNC.  If Michigan State loses, they would drop to the first #6 seed.  If they win, then UNC will drop to the first #6 seed.

No contingency is needed for a Florida win over Kentucky as it would not change my current seeding.

As soon as the last two games go final, I'll publish my final predictions and email them to Bracket Matrix so they can be recorded and scored.

March 16, 2014 - Morning update

This update based on games played through 3/15/14. I'll post another one shortly based on the results of the ACC and Atlantic 10 championship games.

1's: Florida, Wichita State, Arizona, Kansas
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Michigan, Duke
3's: Iowa State, Creighton, Virginia, Syracuse
4's: Louisville, VCU, San Diego State, New Mexico
5's: Massachusetts, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Michigan State
6's: UCLA, Kentucky, Saint Louis, Ohio State
7's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, George Washington
8's: Baylor, Texas, Memphis, Saint Joseph's
9's: Gonzaga, Colorado, Kansas State, Dayton
10's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Providence
11's: Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier, Iowa, SMU
12's: BYU, Tennessee, North Dakota State, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin
13's: Manhattan, Delaware, Western Michigan, Georgia State
14's: New Mexico State, Tulsa, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky
15's: North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Weber State
16's: Wofford, Albany, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Cal Poly, Texas Southern

FFO: Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, California
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

Saturday, March 15, 2014

March 15, 2014


1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin
2's: Kansas, Villanova, Creighton, Duke
3's: Michigan, Iowa State, Syracuse, Virginia
4's: San Diego State, Louisville, Cincinnati, VCU
5's: Massachusetts, Saint Louis, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Ohio State, Connecticut, Michigan State, Oklahoma
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky
8's: Texas, Baylor, Memphis, Colorado
9's: Gonzaga, Saint Joseph's, Kansas State, Dayton
10's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Stanford
11's: Nebraska, Iowa, SMU, Xavier, Providence
12's: BYU, Tennessee, Toledo, North Dakota State, Louisiana Tech
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
14's: New Mexico State, Georgia State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky
15's: North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wofford
16's: Stony Brook, Weber State, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Cal State Northridge, Texas Southern

FFO: Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, California
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

Friday, March 14, 2014

March 14, 2014

Happy Pi Day! Just three days of action left before the selection show. Yesterday was bubble day, with nearly every bubble team in action. Providence and Minnesota played their way in, while Arkansas and California played their way out. Missouri and St. john's sealed their fates on the wrong side of the bubble with losses to fellow bubble teams Tennessee and Providence. Tennessee and Florida State boosted their resumes, but still have work to do in their respective conference tournaments.

The Gophers play Wisconsin in the game of their season. While I previously thought they needed to win this game to even have a chance, losses by bubble teams around them make this game a win-and-in situation for Minnesota. In fact, they may still have a chance with a loss today, if they get more help from Big East bubblers Providence and Xavier. And, the Gophers RPI won't be hurt by a loss, and their SOS will rise to top-6 win or lose.

1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Kansas
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Duke, Michigan, Iowa State
4's: Virginia, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, VCU, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan State, Connecticut
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Texas
8's: Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado, Gonzaga
9's: Baylor, Dayton, Saint Joseph's, Kansas State
10's: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Stanford
11's: Pittsburgh, Iowa, SMU, Toledo
12's: Xavier, Providence, BYU, Minnesota, Southern Miss, North Dakota State
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
14's: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky
15's: UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
16's: Wofford, Stony Brook, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Mount Saint Mary's, Alabama State

FFO: Tennessee, Florida State, Missouri, California
NFO: Georgetown, Saint John's, Illinois, Green Bay

Thursday, March 13, 2014

March 13, 2014

This is somewhat of a mid-day update, as several games with seeding implications have finished.

1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Kansas
2's: Wisconsin, Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Duke, Michigan, Iowa State
4's: Virginia, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, VCU, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan State, Connecticut
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky
8's: Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Gonzaga
9's: Dayton, Baylor, Saint Joseph's, Kansas State
10's: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Iowa
11's: Stanford, Pittsburgh, SMU, Toledo
12's: Xavier, Arkansas, BYU, California, Southern Miss, North Dakota State
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
14's: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Mercer, UC Santa Barbara
15's: Eastern Kencutky, North Carolina Central, American, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
16's: Wofford, Stony Brook, Weber State, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Missouri, Tennessee, Minnesota
NFO: Georgetown, Florida State, Saint John's, Illinois

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

March 12, 2014


1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
4's: Iowa State, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, VCU, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Oklahoma, Connecticut, Ohio State, Michigan State
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky
8's: Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Gonzaga
9's: Dayton, Saint Joseph's, Baylor, Kansas State
10's: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Stanford
11's: Nebraska, Pittsburgh, SMU, Toledo
12's: Xavier, Arkansas, BYU, California, Southern Miss, North Dakota State
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
14's: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Mercer, Boston University
15's: UC Santa Barbara, Eastern Kencutky, North Carolina Central, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
16's: Wofford, Stony Brook, Weber State, Mount Saint Mary's, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgetown
NFO: Minnesota, Middle Tennessee, Green Bay, Saint Mary's

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

March 11, 2014


1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Villanova
2's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
4's: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts, Iowa State
5's: Louisville, VCU, New Mexico, North Carolina
6's: Oklahoma, Connecticut, Ohio State, Michigan State
7's: Oregon, George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky
8's: Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Gonzaga
9's: Dayton, Saint Joseph's, Baylor, Kansas State
10's: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Stanford
11's: Nebraska, Pittsburgh, SMU, Toledo
12's: BYU, Xavier, Arkansas, Providence, Southern Miss, North Dakota State
13's: Harvard, Manhattan, Delaware, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Mercer, Boston University
15's: UC Santa Barbara, Eastern Kencutky, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris
16's: Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wofford, Stony Brook, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Missouri, Tennessee, Saint John's, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Green Bay, Saint Mary's, Minnesota, California

Monday, March 10, 2014

March 10, 2014


1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Villanova
2's: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Duke, Virginia, Michigan
4's: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Massachusetts, Louisville
5's: New Mexico, Iowa State, VCU, North Carolina
6's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State
7's: George Washington, UCLA, Kentucky, Gonzaga
8's: Oregon, Texas, Memphis, Pittsburgh
9's: Colorado, Dayton, SMU, Saint Joseph's
10's: Baylor, Iowa, Arizona State, Kansas State
11's: Stanford, Oklahoma State, BYU, Southern Miss
12's: Missouri, Nebraska, Arkansas, Xavier, North Dakota State, Toledo
13's: Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard, Georgia State
14's: North Carolina Central, Mercer, Delaware, Boston University
15's: New Mexico State, Eastern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara, Stony Brook
16's: Robert Morris, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wofford, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Saint Mary's, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Green Bay, Saint John's, Minnesota, California

Sunday, March 9, 2014

March 9, 2014


1's: Wichita State, Florida, Arizona, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Cincinnati, Creighton, Louisville, Virginia
4's: Duke, Michigan, Saint Louis, New Mexico
5's: Iowa State, Massachusetts, VCU, Michigan State
6's: Connecticut, Oklahoma, North Carolina, George Washington
7's: Gonzaga, UCLA, Oregon, Ohio State
8's: Kentucky, Memphis, Saint Joseph's, Texas
9's: Pittsburgh, SMU, Dayton, Colorado
10's: BYU, Arizona State, Baylor, Iowa
11's: Southern Miss, Missouri, Oklahoma State, North Dakota State
12's: Saint Mary's, Kansas State, Arkansas, Stanford, Green Bay, Toledo
13's: Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University, Delaware
15's: Mercer, New Mexico State, Eastern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Davidson, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Alabama State

FFO: Tennessee, Xavier, Providence, Saint John's
NFO: Nebraska, Middle Tennessee, California, Minnesota

Friday, March 7, 2014

March 7, 2014


1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Virginia, Cincinnati, Creighton, New Mexico
4's: Louisville, Saint Louis, Duke, Michigan
5's: Massachusetts, Iowa State, VCU Connecticut
6's: UCLA, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oklahoma
7's: Kentucky, Gonzaga, George Washington, Texas
8's: Ohio State, Oregon, SMU, Memphis
9's: Colorado, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Pittsburgh
10's: Dayton, BYU, Missouri, Kansas State
11's: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Southern Miss
12's: Baylor, Providence, Xavier, Saint Mary's, Green Bay, North Dakota State
13's: Toledo, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Belmont, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Mercer
15's: Boston University, Delaware, New Mexico State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Davidson, Montana, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Stanford, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, Nebraska
NFO: Clemson, Saint John's, Florida State, LSU

Thursday, March 6, 2014

March 6, 2014

Duke's loss to Wake Forest last night dropped the Blue Devils down one seed line, as did Saint Louis' loss to Dayton.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Virginia, Creighton, Cincinnati, New Mexico
4's: Saint Louis, Louisville, Duke, Michigan
5's: Massachusetts, Iowa State, Connecticut, North Carolina
6's: VCU, UCLA, Michigan State, Oklahoma
7's: Gonzaga, Kentucky, George Washington, Ohio State
8's: Texas, Memphis, Oregon, SMU
9's: Saint Joseph's, Colorado, Arizona State, Pittsburgh
10's: Dayton, Iowa, BYU, Missouri
11's: Kansas State, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Southern Miss
12's: Xavier, Baylor, Providence, Saint Mary's, Green Bay, North Dakota State
13's: Toledo, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Belmont, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Delaware
15's: Boston University, Mercer, New Mexico State, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Robert Morris, Davidson, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Stanford, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, Nebraska
NFO: Clemson, Saint John's, Florida State, Minnesota

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

March 5, 2014

Syracuse lost again last night, dropping their fourth out of five games. And although Duke and Virginia are forgivable, even expected losses, Boston College and Georgia Tech are very very bad losses. I still have the Orange at a 2-seed based on a 14-2 top-100 record, however a loss at Florida State on Sunday would more than likely drop them to the 3-line, and a quick exit in the ACC tournament could even mean a four. They have plenty of quality wins, but a #55 SOS doesn't look great against Duke's #8, Creighton's #15, and even Virginia's #30, especially when the Jays and Cavs each have zero losses outside the top-65.

By virtue of their 22nd win and a breach of the RPI top-10, I now have Michigan on the 4-line. They could potentially reach a 2-seed by winning the Big-10 tournament, but they'd need some help from teams above them. By winning their next four games (and thereby the Big10 tourney), they would jump to the 10th or 11th snake position on my bracket. It would take bad losses by two or three of the teams currently occupying the #5-#10 spots for the Wolverines to gain a 2-seed. This is very possible, as they may face Wisconsin, and a win in the Big10 final could make them both 2-seeds. Of Syracuse, Virginia, and Duke, at least two will gain a loss in the ACC tournament. And, Saint Louis will have to go through UMass, VCU, GWU and/or St. Joe's in the A10 tourney.

Speaking of conference tournaments, they're officially underway. The Patriot, Atlantic Sun, and Horizon leagues started eariler this week. None of these three have much potential for bubble spoilers, with the exception of UW-Green Bay, who could have a long shot at an At-Large bid. Ohio Valley, Big South, and Northeast conferences get started tonight, but again no potential spoilers to report. The next big one to watch for will be Wichita State's Friday matchup against the winner of Thursday's Drake/Evansville game, on their quest for 33-0.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Wisconsin, Kansas, Syracuse, San Diego State
3's: Virginia, Duke, Saint Louis, Creighton
4's: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Michigan
5's: Louisville, Iowa State, Connecticut, North Carolina
6's: VCU, UCLA, Michigan State, Gonzaga
7's: Kentucky, SMU, Oklahoma, Ohio State
8's: Memphis, Texas, Saint Joseph's, George Washington
9's: Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado, Pittsburgh
10's: Iowa, BYU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
11's: Dayton, Missouri, Arkansas, Southern Miss
12's: Baylor, Xavier, Stanford, Providence, Toledo, Green Bay
13's: North Dakota State, Iona, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Delaware
15's: Boston University, Mercer, New Mexico State, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Davidson, Robert Morris, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Saint Mary's, Boise State, California, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Saint John's, Tennessee, Florida State, Minnesota

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

March 4, 2014

There weren't many meaningful matchups last night. UNC was the only ranked team in action, and barely won at home over Notre Dame, in what could have been a nasty blemish on their resume.

As a statistician, I hate outliers. They always muck up nice data sets, and skew results into significance that may not otherwise be. As applied to Bracketology, outliers are that game where a mediocre school beat a powerhouse on a down night, or that 2-seed met the #150 RPI team on the night they went 12-14 from behind the arc. Lots of bizarre things can happen over the course of a season, so in an attempt to sift through those outliers, I want to ignore each team's best win and worst loss. Below is a list of each of the 48 At Large teams' 2nd best win and 2nd worst loss. This data isn't currently factored into my projections, but I will likely incorporate it by Selection Sunday for my final predictions.

***table to be added as soon as I get home to Chrome...for a teaser, the teams that stuck out the most to me were Texas (2nd best win #11 Iowa St, 2nd worst loss #37 Kansas St) and Gonzaga (2nd best win #58 Arkansas, 2nd worst loss #154 San Diego).

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Virginia, Saint Louis, Duke
4's: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Iowa State, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, Michigan, Connecticut, North Carolina
6's: VCU, UCLA, Michigan State, Gonzaga
7's: SMU, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Ohio State
8's: Memphis, Texas, George Washington, Saint Joseph's
9's: Arizona State, Oregon, Colorado, Pittsburgh
10's: Iowa, BYU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
11's: Dayton, Missouri, Arkansas, Southern Miss
12's: Xavier, Stanford, Baylor, Providence, Toledo, Green Bay
13's: North Dakota State, Iona, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Delaware
15's: Boston University, New Mexico State, Mercer, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Davidson, Robert Morris, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Saint Mary's, Boise State, California, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Saint John's, Tennessee, Minnesota, Nebraska

Monday, March 3, 2014

March 3, 2014

Eleven ranked teams were upset over the weekend - Ohio State, Cincinnati, Louisville, Michigan State, Texas, Syracuse, Creighton, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Iowa State, and Kansas. These teams are all locks for the tournament, but their losses will stir up the seeding a bit.

A few other lower tournament bids, or bubble teams, lost as well - UMass, Colorado, Richmond, California.

Gophers update - after losing to Michigan, my projections indicate they would need to make it to at least the semifinals of the Big10 tournament, meaning three consecutive wins. Currently slated as the 8-seed, Minnesota would lock up the 7-seed with a win against Penn State and losses by both Indiana (to either Nebraska or Michigan) and Illinois (to either Michigan or Iowa). If the above assumptions pan out, the first round opponent would be the 10-seed, which at this point could still be one of four teams - Illinois, Purdue, Penn State, or Northwestern. A win in that game would move them on to face the 2-seed, very likely Wisconsin. Having beaten the Badgers once already this year, that could be a winnable matchup. Next up would be the 3-seed Spartans, who have lost four of their last six, and who the Gophers took to overtime earlier this year. It may be a long shot, but there is still a chance.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Villanova
2's: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Creighton
3's: San Diego State, Virginia, Saint Louis, Duke
4's: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Iowa State, Massachusetts
5's: Louisville, Michigan, Connecticut, VCU
6's: UCLA, North Carolina, Michigan State, Gonzaga
7's: SMU, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Ohio State
8's: Texas, Memphis, George Washington, Saint Joseph's
9's: Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Colorado
10's: Kansas State, Iowa, Xavier, BYU
11's: Dayton, Southern Miss, Missouri, Arkansas
12's: Middle Tennessee, North Dakota State, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Green Bay, Baylor
13's: Toledo, Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Delaware
15's: Boston University, New Mexico State, Mercer, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Davidson, Robert Morris, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Providence, Saint Mary's, Boise State, California
NFO: Saint John's, Tennessee, Minnesota, Nebraska