February 28, 2014

Holy upsets, Batman! Five out of the six ranked teams playing last night lost and three of them were huge, unexpected upsets. I have Saint Louis, UCLA, Memphis, and Iowa each slipping down one seed line, and Kentucky and Ohio State falling from the front to back of their same seed.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Kansas, Creighton, Wisconsin
3's: Saint Louis, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Iowa State
4's: Duke, Virginia, Massachusetts, Louisville
5's: New Mexico, Michigan State, Kentucky, Michigan
6's: North Carolina, UCLA, Connecticut, Ohio State
7's: Texas, Gonzaga, VCU, SMU
8's: Oklahoma, George Washington, Saint Joseph's, Colorado
9's: Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Memphis, Oregon
10's: Kansas State, Southern Miss, Iowa, BYU
11's: Stanford, Xavier, Missouri, Saint Mary's
12's: Dayton, North Dakota State, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma State, Green Bay
13's: Toledo, Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, Delaware
15's: Boston University, Mercer, New Mexico State, Vermont
16's: UC Santa Barbara, Robert Morris, Davidson, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Middle Tennessee, Baylor, Richmond, Minnesota
NFO: Providence, Indiana State, Saint John's, LSU

February 27, 2014

Notes from last night's games:
Michigan and UNC both eeked out 1-point wins on the road.
Baylor, Boise State, Nebraska, Richmond, Toledo and Indiana State all slid down the bubble, putting their at-large hopes in jeopardy with losses.
Arizona reclaimed the #1 overall spot with a domintaing win (their 26th) over California.
Iowa State took back their spot on the 3-line with a win over West Virginia.

1's: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Creighton
3's: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Iowa State
4's: Duke, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Mexico
5's: Kentucky, Louisville, UCLA, Michigan State
6's: Ohio State, Michigan, North Carolina, Connecticut
7's: Texas, Gonzaga, VCU, SMU
8's: Memphis, Oklahoma, George Washington, Colorado
9's: Saint Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Iowa
10's: Oregon, Kansas State, Toledo, Southern Miss
11's: BYU, Xavier, Stanford, Missouri
12's: Middle Tennessee, Green Bay, North Dakota State, Dayton, Saint Mary's
13's: Belmont, California, Oklahoma State, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Mercer, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State
15's: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Northern Colorado, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: Indiana State, Baylor, Richmond, Minnesota
NFO: Providence, Arkansas, Ohio, Saint John's

February 26, 2014

After scoring fewer than 55 points in their last three games, the Gophers notched their highest point total of the season in a 95-89 win over Iowa at the Barn last night. Pitino the younger was right when he said his boys had a fire lit under them in Monday's practice. Minnesota shot 9 for 11 from behind the arc in the first half for an awesome 51 points at halftime. The Hawkeyes kept it close most of the way, shooting 48% from the floor and 40% from 3-point range. It looked like the Gophers were going to put it away, going up by 13 with 8 minutes to go, but Iowa pulled back within two with just over a minute to go. The Gophers hot free throw shooting sealed the game down the stretch, as they made 13 of 14 in the last 1:12.
1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Creighton
3's: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Duke
4's: Iowa State, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Mexico
5's: Kentucky, Louisville, UCLA, Ohio State
6's: Michigan State, Michigan, Connecticut, North Carolina
7's: Gonzaga, Texas, SMU, VCU
8's: Memphis, Oklahoma, Colorado, George Washington
9's: Saint Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Toledo, Iowa
10's: Arizona State, Stanford, Oregon, Indiana State
11's: Kansas State, Green Bay, Southern Miss, BYU
12's: Xavier, Missouri, Richmond, Middle Tennessee, Dayton, California
13's: North Dakota State, Belmont, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Mercer, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State
15's: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Northern Colorado, VMI, Alabama State

FFO: Baylor, Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State, Ohio
NFO: Boise State, Minnesota, Providence, Nebraska

February 25, 2014

I'll try to get some thoughts down here later this afternoon/evening...for now, here's my updated projections...not much has changed.

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Creighton
3's: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Duke
4's: Iowa State, Virginia, Massachusetts, Kentucky
5's: Louisville, New Mexico, UCLA, Ohio State
6's: Michigan State, Michigan, Connecticut, North Carolina
7's: Gonzaga, Texas, SMU, VCU
8's: Memphis, Oklahoma, Colorado, George Washington
9's: Iowa, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State
10's: Toledo, Stanford, Missouri, Oregon
11's: Indiana State, Green Bay, Dayton, BYU,
12's: Kansas State, Southern Miss, North Dakota State, Richmond, Middle Tennessee
13's: Belmont, California, Baylor, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Iona, New Mexico State, North Carolina Central
15's: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Northern Colorado, VMI, Alabama State

FFO: Saint Mary's, Xavier, Oklahoma State, Saint John's
NFO: Boise State, Arkansas, Providence, Nebraska

February 24, 2014

18 was quite an interesting number for the Gophers on Saturday. It's the number of points they allowed to Ohio State in a solid first half, the number of points they scored themselves in a horrendous second half, and also the margin of defeat. Having fallen off the bubble, Minnesota will need a quite unlikely surge of wins to make the big dance. They'll need at least three wins in their last 4+ games, depending on who they meet in the first round of the Big10 tournament. If the season ended today, they'd be the #7 seed facing #10 Northwestern.

It was another exciting weekend of basketball, as 3 of the top 7 teams lost, and several others made big moves in solidfying their resumes. Syracuse lost to #5 Duke, but retained their spot on the top seed line by a very narrow margin over Villanova. The win moved Duke up to a three. San Diego State lost to New Mexico, knocking the Aztecs down to the 3-line. Louisville beat Cincy, moving the Cardinals up to the front of the 5-line.

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Creighton
3's: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Duke
4's: Iowa State, Virginia, Massachusetts, Kentucky
5's: Louisville, New Mexico, UCLA, Ohio State
6's: Michigan State, Michigan, Gonzaga, Connecticut
7's: North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, SMU
8's: VCU, Memphis, George Washington, Colorado
9's: Iowa, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State
10's: Toledo, Missouri, Stanford, Oregon
11's: Indiana State, Green Bay, Dayton, North Dakota State
12's: BYU, Kansas State, Southern Miss, Richmond, Middle Tennessee
13's: California, Belmont, Baylor, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Iona, New Mexico State, North Carolina Central
15's: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Northern Colorado, Alabama State, VMI

FFO: Xavier, Saint Mary's, Saint John's, Oklahoma State
NFO: Boise State, Arkansas, Providence, Ohio

February 21, 2014

Duke and Gonzaga both suffered upsets last night, knocking them each down a seed line. UNC's victory over Duke helps continue the Tar Heels' strong late season push.

I want to talk Blind Resumes. Last night on Sports Center, they did a "Blind Resume" segment with Joey Looney. The first thing out of his mouth after they put the graphic up on the screen with the two resumes was, "So, that first team is Tennessee..." He then proceeded to compare Tennessee and West Virginia (the other "unknown" team). Am I wrong, or is the whole idea of blind resume comparison that you compare two sets of qualifications WITHOUT TALKING ABOUT THE NAMES OF THE TEAMS!!! This brings me to my own Blind Resume experiment, to illustrate what I believe is a significant bias in most bracketologists' methods.

Team 1
Record: 22-4
Conf Record: 11-2
vs. Top-100: 3-4
Non-Conf SOS: 154

Team 2
Record: 21-4
Conf Record: 10-3
vs. Top-100: 3-4
Non-Conf SOS: 130

You might say to yourself (as I do), "These two teams must both be projected at similar seeds." If so, then you might also be as surprised (as I am) that several bracketologists (including Joe Lunardi) have them 8 seed lines apart. Two BracketMatrix entries have them a whopping 10 seed lines apart! Now you can go ahead and figure out which two teams these are, and I'll admit there are several other resume factors which differentiate them (I have them on the 6- and 10- lines, respectively), but good lord let's get real. Team 1 is no better than a 5 seed, and Team 2 no worse than an 11. Kudos to those bracketologists who leave Big Name/Big Conference bias out of their brackets.

*Disclaimer: I actually do root for Team 1 most of the time, and have no significant opinion either way on Team 2.

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Iowa State
4's: UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia, Duke
5's: Massachusetts, Kentucky, Ohio State, New Mexico
6's: Louisville, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Texas
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado
8's: Pittsburgh, George Washington, North Carolina, Oklahoma
9's: Memphis, Arizona State, SMU, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Toledo, Indiana State, Kansas State
11's: Oregon, Xavier, Stanford, Green Bay
12's: Dayton, North Dakota State, BYU, Southern Miss, Saint John's
13's: Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Richmond, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Manhattan, Delware, New Mexico State
15's: Boston University, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Robert Morris, Elon, Weber State, Radford, Alabama State

FFO: California, Baylor, Saint Mary's, Minnesota
NFO: Oklahoma State, Boise State, Arkansas, North Carolina State

February 20, 2014

I'm not ready to put a fork in 'em quite yet, but the Gophers have put their post season hopes in a precarious position. At this point, they can afford at most two more losses in their remaining 5+ games, which include at least three ranked opponents (Ohio St, Iowa, or Michigan). After a hot start last night, the Gophers could not get into any sort of offensive rhythm, and found every possible way to turn the ball over. It was close, but they did manage to outscore Kevin Love, who was playing across town at the same time, by just 7 points.

By far the bigger headline from last night is Syracuse's loss to Boston College. I didn't get to see much of the game, but this is an upset for the ages. BC had only 5 wins going into the contest, and an RPI barely better than #200. Some may disagree with keeping them on the 1-line, but having two fewer losses than 'Nova keeps them there for now. Two of the Orange's next three games are at Duke and at Virginia, and they'll be underdogs in both.

1's: Wichita State, Arizona, Florida, Syracuse
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Creighton, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Duke
4's: Iowa State, UCLA, Virginia, Michigan State
5's: Kentucky, Massachusetts, Gonzaga, Ohio State
6's: Louisville, New Mexico, Connecticut, Texas
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado
8's: Pittsburgh, George Washington, Oklahoma, Memphis
9's: Arizona State, North Carolina, SMU, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Indiana State, Toledo, Kansas State
11's: Xavier, Dayton, Stanford, Saint Mary's
12's: Southern Miss, Saint John's, Richmond, California, North Dakota State, Middle Tennessee
13's: Belmont, Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Manhattan, Delware, New Mexico State
15's: Boston University, North Carolina Central, Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Bryant, Northern Colorado, Elon, Radford, Southern

FFO: BYU, Baylor, Minnesota, Oklahoma State
NFO: Providence, Boise State, Arkansas, North Carolina State

February 19, 2014

No time for any commentary today, here are the updated projections:

1's: Syracuse, Wichita State, Arizona, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Cincinnati, Creighton, Wisconsin, Duke
4's: Iowa State, UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia
5's: Kentucky, Massachusetts, Ohio State, Gonzaga
6's: Louisville, Connecticut, New Mexico, Texas
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona State
8's: Pittsburgh, George Washington, Oklahoma, Colorado
9's: Memphis, North Carolina, SMU, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Indiana State, Toledo, Kansas State
11's: California, Oregon, Xavier, Minnesota
12's: Stanford, Green Bay, Saint Mary's, Southern Miss, Saint John's, Dayton
13's: North Dakota State, Delaware, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Mercer, Manhattan, New Mexico State
15's: North Carolina Central, Boston University, Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Bryant, Northern Colorado, Davidson, Coastal Carolina, Southern

FFO: Richmond, Middle Tennessee, BYU, Baylor
NFO: Oklahoma State, Providence, Boise State, North Carolina State

February 18, 2014

Not much for notable games last night, UNC beat Flordia State, that's about it. As such, there wasn't much movement in my projections, just a couple little tweaks.

The Gophers have a must win tomorrow night at home against Illinois. A victory will put the Gophers within two wins of a locked-in spot, and move them up 1 or 2 RPI spots. Getting into the top-30 by Selection Sunday would be nice, but that'll require 4 more wins. A loss to Illinois would be the 10th of the year, and would drop the Gophers RPI to about #47.


1's: Syracuse, Wichita State, Arizona, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Cincinnati
3's: San Diego State, Creighton, Wisconsin, Duke
4's: Iowa State, UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia
5's: Massachusetts, Texas, Ohio State, Gonzaga
6's: Kentucky, Louisville, Connecticut, New Mexico
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona State
8's: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Colorado, North Carolina
9's: George Washington, Memphis, SMU, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Indiana State, Toledo, Kansas State
11's: Richmond, California, Oregon, Xavier
12's: Southern Mississippi, Minnesota, Stanford, Green Bay, Saint Mary's, Dayton
13's: Belmont, North Dakota State, Delaware, Stephen F. Austin
14's: Harvard, Mercer, Manhattan, New Mexico State
15's: North Carolina Central, Boston University, Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara
16's: Vermont, Bryant, Northern Colorado, Elon, Coastal Carolina, Southern

FFO: Saint John's, Middle Tennessee, BYU, Baylor
NFO: Providence, North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi

February 17, 2014

We're now less than a month away from Selection Sunday, so every game is a crucial piece of each team's resume. The Gophers got the job done at Northwestern, despite not playing their best game. The Wildcats really lost the game more than Minnesota won it. Their top scorer on the season, Drew Crawford, went 1 for 15 and the team shot barely 30%.

Both of the Michigan teams fighting for the top Big10 spot lost yesterday. A hot Wisconsin team beat Michigan fairly easily in Ann Arbor, and much more surprisingly, the Huskers added a major resume booster with a win over Michigan State in East Lansing. Nebraska could very easily make a move into the field over the next couple weeks, with their next five games coming against beatable opponents. If they can win four of them, they'll have a 10-7 Big10 record, RPI north of 40, and SOS in the top 30...easily tournament numbers.


1's: Syracuse, Wichita State, Arizona, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Cincinnati
3's: San Diego State, Creighton, Wisconsin, Duke
4's: Iowa State, UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia
5's: Massachusetts, Texas, Ohio State, Gonzaga
6's: Kentucky, Louisville, Connecticut, New Mexico
7's: VCU, Michigan, Iowa, Pittsburgh
8's: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Colorado, George Washington
9's: Memphis, SMU, North Carolina, Missouri
10's: Saint Joseph's, Indiana State, Toledo, Kansas State
11's: Richmond, California, Xavier, Oregon
12's: Minnesota, Southern Mississippi, Stanford, Green Bay, Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State
13's: Belmont, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Harvard
14's: Mercer, Delaware, Manhattan, New Mexico State
15's: Boston University, North Carolina Central, UC Santa Barbara, Georgia State,
16's: Vermont, Weber State, Bryant, Davidson, Coastal Carolina, Southern

FFO: Dayton, Saint John's, BYU, Middle Tennessee
NFO: Providence, North Carolina State, Baylor, Mississippi

February 14, 2014

Happy Valentine's Day all!
The Gopher's did about as well as they could have been expected to at the Kohl Center last night. They continued to fight even after falling down by as much as 15 late in the second half. The pulled within five points in the last minute, but the Badgers made enough free throws down the stretch (11-14 in the last 2 min) to keep the game out of reach. In fact, the Badgers did an amazing job getting to the line all night, scoring as many points from free throws (30 of 36) as 2-point jumpers (15 of 28).
With six games to go before the Big10 tourney, the Gophers still desparately need three wins, starting at Northwestern on Sunday, then Illinois at home next Wednesday. I won't go quite so far to say that they MUST win both of these games, but a loss in either would mean they'd need to beat either Ohio State or Michigan on the road, or both. Although Minnesota has temporarily fallen to the first team out, wins in the next two games will push them safely back into the field before their 3-game gauntlet (@Ohio St, Iowa, @Michigan).


1's: Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Creighton
4's: Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Iowa State
5's: UCLA, Virginia, Louisville, Michigan
6's: Massachusetts, Texas, VCU, Ohio State
7's: Pittsburgh, George Washington, Connecticut, New Mexico
8's: Memphis, SMU, Iowa, Colorado
9's: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, North Carolina
10's: Xavier, Toledo, Missouri, Indiana State
11's: Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State, Saint Joseph's, North Dakota State
12's: Richmond, Oregon, California, Stanford, Dayton, Southern Mississippi
13's: Belmont, Stephen F Austin, Harvard, New Mexico State
14's: Green Bay, Delaware, Manhattan, Mercer
15's: UC Santa Barbara, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University
16's: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Radford, Southern

FFO: Minnesota, North Carolina State, Mississippi, Saint John's
NFO: Providence, Georgetown, Tennessee, BYU

February 13, 2014

Syracuse needed a buzzer beater to stay undefeated last night against Pittsuburgh. Despite remaining undefeated through 24 games, Syracuse has definitely displayed some weaknesses that may be exploited come tournament time. That being said, last night's narrow win puts the Orange narrowly back into my #1 overall slot - by just a few basis points.

Speaking of basis points, I have Villanova and Florida in a virtual dead heat, separated by less than one basis point. Both teams are 22-2, with very similar SOS. Both beat Kansas, but Nova has the edge with one other quality win (#23 Iowa) and better losses (#3 Cuse & #12 Creighton) than Florida (#7 Wisconsin and #30 UConn).

Tonight is going to be a great test for Minnesota at the Kohl Center. It's really a no-lose game for the Gophers, as their resume won't be significantly affected by a loss, but a win would go a long ways in helping to lock up a bid. With as few as 8 games left before selection sunday, the Gophers need at least four wins to ensure a selection.


1's: Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Villanova
2's: Florida, Saint Louis, Kansas, San Diego State
3's: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Creighton, Wisconsin
4's: Duke, Kentucky, Iowa State, Gonzaga
5's: Virginia, UCLA, Michigan, Massachusetts
6's: Louisville, Texas, VCU, Ohio State
7's: Pittsburgh, Connecticut, George Washington, New Mexico
8's: Memphis, Colorado, Iowa, SMU
9's: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Xavier
10's: North Carolina, Toledo, Indiana State, Oklahoma State
11's: Saint Joseph's, Saint Mary's, Missouri, Minnesota
12's: Richmond, North Dakota State, Oregon, California, Stanford, Southern Miss
13's: Belmont, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, Harvard
14's: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Manhattan
15's: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University, Hawaii
16's: Vermont, Bryant, Weber State, Elon, Southern, Radford

FFO: Dayton, North Carolina State, BYU, Mississippi
NFO: Providence, Ohio, Georgetown, Tennessee

February 12, 2014

It looked like Ohio State was going to pull off a nice home win over the higher ranked Wolverines, but the Buckeye shooters went cold late in the second half, allowing Michigan to go on runs of 12-0 and 8-0 in the last 12 minutes of the game. The win all but locks up a bye for Michigan in the Big Ten tournamen, as they have a four game lead over 5-seed Ohio State with just six games remaining.

Oklahoma State had no viable replacement for suspended Marcus Smart, as they lost by 19 to a surging Longhorns squad.

The most news-worthy game of last night has me kicking myself for not writing about it yesterday. I saw San Diego State @ Wyoming on the schedule, and I thought it'd be a trap game for the Aztecs, but I didn't mention it in my post. I even went so far as to run the potential outcome through an scenario calculator to see how far the road loss would drop San Diego State's RPI. They only fell from 16th to 18th, but the 2nd loss of the season will hurt more in Tournament selection than RPI standing.

1's: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida
2's: Villanova, Saint Louis, Kansas, Cincinnati
3's: San Diego State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Creighton
4's: Massachusetts, Duke, Iowa State, Kentucky
5's: Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Virginia, UCLA
6's: New Mexico, Michigan, George Washington, Texas
7's: Louisville, Ohio State, VCU, Connecticut
8's: Oklahoma, Memphis, Iowa, Colorado
9's: SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State, Xavier
10's: North Carolina, Toledo, Oklahoma State, Saint Joseph's
11's: Stanford, Indiana State, Missouri, Saint Mary's
12's: Minnesota, North Dakota State, Oregon, Richmond, Southern Miss, North Carolina State
13's: Belmont, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, Harvard
14's: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Manhattan
15's: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University
16's: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Southern, Radford

FFO: BYU, California, LSU, Dayton
NFO: Mississippi, Providence, Georgetown, Tennessee

February 11, 2014

Day 2 of no Chrome...makin me cray!

Two of the three games last night featuring ranked teams resulted in upsets. Kansas State beat Kansas in OT to hand the [still] #1 RPI Jayhawks their 6th loss. West Virginia pounded Iowa State, putting up triple digits and winning easily by 25 points. Below the seeding predictions are the breakdown of bids by conference.

1's: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova
2's: Florida, San Diego State, Kansas, Saint Louis
3's: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Creighton, Wisconsin
4's: Massachusetts, Duke, Kentucky, Iowa State
5's: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Virginia
6's: UCLA, New Mexico, George Washington, Louisville
7's: Texas, Michigan, VCU, Connecticut
8's: Memphis, Oklahoma, Colorado, Iowa
9's: SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
10's: North Carolina, Xavier, Toledo, Saint Joseph's
11's: Stanford, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Missouri
12's: Minnesota, Mississippi, Oregon, North Dakota State, Richmond, Southern Miss
13's: Belmont, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, Harvard
14's: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Manhattan
15's: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University
16's: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Southern, Radford

FFO: LSU, California, BYU, Dayton
NFO: Tennessee, Clemson, North Carolina State, Providence

Atlantic 10: 6
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
Pac 12: 6
ACC: 5
American: 5
SEC: 4
Big East: 3
Mountain West: 2
MVC: 2
WCC: 2

February 10, 2014

We had two big upsets last night. Wisconsin knocked off Michigan State in Madison, and St. John's handed Creighton their 4th loss of the year. As a result, the Spartans fell down a line to a 3-seed, while Creighton moved down two snake lines but maintained their spot on the 2-line. My apologies if this post is a bit off, I've been dealing with some technical difficulties on my work computer so I'm stuck using...Internet Explorer...wow does it suck bad. 1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova 2 seeds: Florida, Kansas, San Diego State, Saint Louis 3 seeds: Cincinnati, Michigan State, Iowa State, Creighton 4 seeds: Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Duke, Kentucky 5 seeds: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Virginia 6 seeds: New Mexico, UCLA, Louisville, George Washington 7 seeds: Texas, Michigan, VCU, Oklahoma 8 seeds: Connecticut, Memphis, Colorado, Iowa 9 seeds: SMU, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State 10 seeds: North Carolina, Xavier, Toledo, Saint Joseph's 11 seeds: Stanford, Indiana State, North Dakota State, Saint Mary's 12 seeds: Missouri, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oregon, Providence, Southern Miss 13 seeds: Belmont, New Mexico State, Iona, Stephen F Austin 14 seeds: Harvard, Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer 15 seeds: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University 16 seeds: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Alabama State, Radford First Four Out: Richmond, BYU, LSU, California Next Four Out: Dayton, Tennessee, Clemson, North Carolina State

February 9, 2014

 The Gophers finally pulled out of their nose dive with a win over Indiana, likely saving their tournament chances...for now.  They have three must-win games left (Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State), and four against the RPI top-25 (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan).  Assuming the Gophers go 3-4 in these games, they'll enter the Big Ten tourney as the #6 or #7 seed, which would result in a favorable opening round game against Purdue or Penn State.  If they go 1-1 in the Big Ten tourney, they'd enter selection Sunday with a record of 19-13, RPI of ~45, and SOS of ~5. Thirteen losses is a really big number for an at-large bid.  The SOS and a couple quality wins may help, but 20-12 looks a hell of a lot better than 19-13.  And, that 20th win would have to be a quality one, further strengthening the resume.

Other news-worthy games from the weekend: Iowa crushed Michigan, SMU upset Cincinncati, Texas was blown out at K-State and OK-State lost a not-so-Smart game to #128 Texas Tech.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova

2 seeds: Florida, Kansas, San Diego State, Michigan State

3 seeds: Saint Louis, Creighton, Cincinnati, Iowa State

4 seeds: Massachusetts, Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky

5 seeds: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Virginia

6 seeds: UCLA, New Mexico, George Washington, Louisville

7 seeds: Texas, Michigan, VCU, Oklahoma

8 seeds: Memphis, Connecticut, Iowa, SMU

9 seeds: Colorado, Toledo, Arizona State, Oklahoma State

10 seeds: Kansas State, North Carolina, Xavier, Saint Joseph's

11 seeds: Stanford, North Dakota State, Saint Mary's, Missouri

12 seeds: Minnesota, Mississippi, Indiana State, Oregon, Providence, Southern Miss

13 seeds: Belmont, New Mexico State, Stephen F Austin, Harvard

14 seeds: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Manhattan

15 seeds: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University

16 seeds: Bryant, Vermont, Weber State, Elon, Alabama State, Radford

First Four Out: Richmond, Clemson, California, LSU
Next Four Out: BYU, Dayton, Tennessee, North Carolina State

February 7, 2014

After trailing most of the second half, Arizona finally snagged the lead for good with 93 seconds left in last night's game against Oregon to avoid dropping their second in a row.  There certainly has been a theme this year of undefeated teams dropping multiple games in a row once the hammer falls on their perfect season...Ohio State, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Oregon... Arizona's victory helps them re-secure the #1 overall spot, thanks to a far superior SOS compared to the other 0- and 1- loss teams.  Zona's SOS is #9, Cuse #72, Wichita St #83, and San Diego St #90.  And, as I noted yesterday, Nova is the only 2-loss team with a sub-30 SOS.  For the record, Michigan St (#12) and Creighton (#27) are the only 3-loss teams with sub-30 SOS.  My point is, although there is an unprecedented number of teams this year with outstanding win-loss records (15 with three or fewer losses), only a handful of them (3-5) have very strong SOS numbers to boot.

Thanks to very slight improvements in SOS numbers, the Gophers climbed back into the field as the last team in.  To give an bit of an illustration of my method, and to get an idea of how closely bunched certain teams are, I've included my ratings for each team in the field and bubble.  These ratings are calculated using a regression formula based on the last three years' tournament selections (weighted by recency), and are normalized so that the top seed = 1.000.  I didn't list the ratings outside of the at-large field, because they don't really follow the same method.

Seed	Team	Rating		Seed	Team	Rating
1	Arizona	1.000		9	Oklahoma State	6.318
1	Syracuse	1.114		9	Iowa	6.432
1	Wichita State	1.427		9	SMU	6.524
1	Villanova	2.224		9	Arizona State	6.763
2	Florida	2.342		10	Toledo	6.871
2	Kansas	2.697		10	Missouri	7.183
2	San Diego State	2.727		10	North Carolina	7.404
2	Cincinnati	3.120		10	Stanford	7.420
3	Michigan State	3.225		11	Oregon	7.473
3	Creighton	3.548		11	Kansas State	7.487
3	Saint Louis	3.605		11	Providence	7.537
3	Iowa State	3.905		11	Xavier	7.612
4	Massachusetts	4.229		12	Indiana State	7.815
4	Gonzaga	4.281		12	Saint Mary's	7.935
4	Duke	4.426		12	Saint Joseph's	7.972
4	Wisconsin	4.517		12	Richmond	8.043
5	Pittsburgh	4.813		12	North Dakota State	8.050
5	Texas	4.869		12	Minnesota	8.087
5	Kentucky	4.917		FFO	Clemson	8.098
5	Michigan	4.993		FFO	Ole Miss	8.159
6	Ohio State	5.008		FFO	California	8.185
6	VCU	5.042		FFO	Florida State	8.186
6	New Mexico	5.091		NFO	BYU	8.490
6	Virginia	5.231		13	Belmont	8.524
7	Southern Miss	5.296		NFO	LSU	8.535
7	UCLA	5.310		NFO	Tennessee	8.554
7	Louisville	5.323		NFO	Dayton	8.688
7	George Washington	5.422
8	Oklahoma	5.932
8	Connecticut	5.953
8	Colorado	6.089
8	Memphis	6.175

13 seeds: Belmont, New Mexico State, Harvard, Stephen F Austin

14 seeds: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Canisius

15 seeds: Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, North Carolina Central, Boston University

16 seeds: Stony Brook, Bryant, Weber State, Davidson, Alabama State, Radford

February 6, 2014

Well, the Gophers have officially backed their way out of the tournament.  Just a couple weeks ago local sports pundits were lamenting that Pitino was having too much success here and would be one-and-done with Minnesota.  It looks like regression to the mean has caught up with the Gophers, and although they've got the talent to compete with the country's top teams, they don't have the discipline and consistency to regularly beat anyone.

In other news, Wichita State victorious against their last tough opponent, unless they face the Sycamores again in the MVC tournament.  Their road to an undefeated regular season looks pretty smooth from here on out, virtually guaranteeing them a #1 seed.  By comparison, just two of Syracuse's nine remaining opponents are outside the RPI top-100, and they have road games remaining at Pitt, Duke, Virginia, and Florida State - all top-50 teams.

So, an interesting question - if Wichita State finishes undefeated, and both Syracuse and Arizona finish with two losses, do the Shockers get the #1 overall?  Intuition (not to mention strength of schedule) says no, but among the teams with fewer than 3 losses, only Villanova and Arizona have top-30 SOS numbers.  It may be a bit of an unlikely scenario, but it could become an interesting discussion.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova

2 seeds: Florida, Kansas, San Diego State, Michigan State

3 seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Saint Louis, Iowa State

4 seeds: Massachusetts, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Pittsburgh, Texas, Kentucky, Michigan

6 seeds: New Mexico, Ohio State, VCU, Virginia

7 seeds: Southern Miss, Louisville, UCLA, George Washington 

8 seeds: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Colorado, Memphis

9 seeds: Oklahoma State, Iowa, SMU, Toledo

10 seeds: Arizona State, Missouri, Oregon, North Carolina

11 seeds: Stanford, Kansas State, Providence, Xavier

12 seeds: LSU, Indiana State, Saint Joseph's, North Dakota State, Richmond, Clemson

13 seeds: New Mexico State, Belmont, Harvard, Stephen F Austin

14 seeds: Green Bay, Delaware, Mercer, Canisius

15 seeds: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, UC Santa Barbara, Boston University

16 seeds: Stony Brook, Northern Colorado, Bryant, Davidson, Alabama State, Radford

First Four Out: Mississippi, Minnesota, California, Florida State
Next Four Out: Saint Mary's, Tennessee, BYU, Dayton

February 5, 2014

The parity continued in the Big Ten last night, with Ohio State knocking off Iowa.  All other ranked teams won fairly easily over unranked opponents to solidify their projected seedings.

1 seeds: Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Villanova

2 seeds: Florida, Kansas, San Diego State, Michigan State

3 seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Iowa State, Saint Louis

4 seeds: Massachusetts, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Ohio State, Kentucky, Texas, Pittsburgh

6 seeds:  Michigan, VCU, Virginia, Oklahoma

7 seeds: New Mexico, Southern Miss, UCLA, Louisville 

8 seeds: George Washington, Connecticut, Memphis, Colorado

9 seeds: Oklahoma State, Iowa, Toledo, SMU

10 seeds: Green Bay, Arizona State, Missouri, Oregon

11 seeds: North Carolina, Saint Joseph's, Minnesota, Xavier

12 seeds: California, Kansas State, Providence, LSU, Stanford, Tennessee

13 seeds: North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Belmont, Harvard

14 seeds: Stephen F Austin, Mercer, Delaware, Canisius

15 seeds: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, UC Santa Barbara, Boston University

16 seeds: Stony Brook, Northern Colorado, Bryant, Davidson, Alabama State, Coastal Carolina

First Four Out: Mississippi, Clemson, Saint Mary's, Florida State
Next Four Out: Richmond, BYU, Boise State, North Carolina State

February 4, 2014

Top seeds Syracuse and Villanova protected their homecourts last night, while Iowa State won a 3-OT thriller over Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  The loss drops the Cowboys to the 9 line, after being as high as a 3-seed just a few weeks ago.  They should hang out with Ohio State...

1 seeds: Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Villanova

2 seeds: Florida, Kansas, San Diego State, Michigan State

3 seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Iowa State, Saint Louis

4 seeds: Massachusetts, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Pittsburgh, Texas, Kentucky, Michigan

6 seeds: Virginia, Oklahoma, VCU, Ohio State

7 seeds: UCLA, New Mexico, Southern Miss, Connecticut

8 seeds: George Washington, Louisville, Iowa, Colorado

9 seeds: Memphis, Oklahoma State, Toledo, SMU

10 seeds: Missouri, Providence, Green Bay, Arizona State

11 seeds: Oregon, Xavier, Saint Joseph's, Minnesota

12 seeds: Kansas State, California, Mississippi, LSU, North Carolina, Stanford

13 seeds: North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Belmont, Harvard

14 seeds: Stephen F Austin, Mercer, Delaware, Canisius

15 seeds: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, UC Santa Barbara, Boston University

16 seeds: Stony Brook, Northern Colorado, Bryant, Davidson, Alabama State, Coastal Carolina

First Four Out: Tennessee, Saint Mary's, Florida State, Richmond
Next Four Out: Clemson, Baylor, BYU, Boise State

February 3, 2014

What a weekend!  Aside from the Gophers putting their tournament hopes on the line with a devastating home loss to Northwestern, below is a list of ranked teams that were upset over the weekend:

• #1 Arizona lost to California
• #6 Kansas lost to Texas
• #7 Michigan State lost to Georgetown
• #8 Oklahoma State lost to Baylor
• #10 Michigan lost to Indiana
• #14 Wisconsin lost to #24 Ohio State
• #18 Pittsburgh lost to Virginia
• #21 Massachusetts lost to Saint Joseph's
• #22 Memphis lost to SMU

Including earlier losses by Louisville, Kentucky, and Ohio State, 12 of the top 25 teams were upset at least once during the last week.  Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Pitt, & UMass were each upset twice. With that in mind, the projected seedings have been shaken up a bit.

1 seeds: Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Villanova

2 seeds: Florida, Kansas, San Diego State, Michigan State

3 seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Saint Louis, Iowa State

4 seeds: Massachusetts, Gonzaga, Duke, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Pittsburgh, Texas, Kentucky, Virginia

6 seeds: Oklahoma, Michigan, VCU, Ohio State

7 seeds: UCLA, Southern Miss, New Mexico, George Washington

8 seeds: Connecticut, Louisville, Iowa, Oklahoma State

9 seeds: Memphis, Colorado, Toledo, SMU

10 seeds: Providence, Missouri, Green Bay, Xavier

11 seeds: Arizona State, Oregon, Saint Joseph's, Kansas State

12 seeds: Minnesota, California, Mississippi, LSU, North Carolina, Stanford

13 seeds: North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Belmont, Harvard

14 seeds: Stephen F Austin, Mercer, Delaware, Canisius

15 seeds: Georgia State, North Carolina Central, UC Santa Barbara, Boston University

16 seeds: Stony Brook, Northern Colorado, Bryant, Davidson, Coastal Carolina, Southern

First Four Out: Tennessee, Saint Mary's, Florida State, Richmond
Next Four Out: Clemson, Baylor, BYU, Boise State