Friday, January 31, 2014

January 31, 2014

I will admit, this post is a blatant attempt to solicit feedback - let's have it.  Below are the two teams who I believe are most under- and over- rated, based on the most recent Bracket Matrix.  Let me know what you think of my picks, and share yours.

Most Underrated: Saint Louis Billikens
I could have picked any of the top Atlantic 10 teams, really.  The Billikens have the #23 RPI and just two losses on the season, both to top 10 opponents (Wisconsin & Wichita State).  Their lack of quality wins certainly doesn't help their case for a top bid, but assuming an 8-2 finish (losses @VCU & @UMass), they'll enter the A10 tournament with the following resume:

  • Top-10 record
  • Top-20 RPI
  • Top-50 SOS
  • 3-4 record vs top-50
  • 10-4 record vs top-100
  • 11-3 Road/Neutral record
These numbers stack up very well against several teams that most bracketologists currently have ahead of Saint Louis, i.e. Kentucky, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and my pick below for most overrated.


Most Overrated: Iowa Hawkeyes
I'll give Herky credit for their lack of bad losses (all five to top-15 teams), but a couple of the big wins (Ohio State, Minnesota) that got the poll voters' attention now don't look quite so great.  Don't get me wrong, Iowa is safely in the tournament field, but several brackets still have them at a 4 seed (i.e. Lunardi).  That's waaaaay too high based on their current and projected resume.

Current:

  • #41 win percentage (15-5)
  • #31 RPI
  • #36 SOS
  • [Borderline] Quality wins @ #32Ohio St, #27 Xavier (Neutral), #29 Minnesota
Projected (approximate rankings):
  • #50 win percentage (21-9)
  • #35 RPI
  • #30 SOS
  • 2-4 quality wins
  • 0-1 bad losses

Either breakdown warrants a 7-seed at best, more likely an 8; I have them as the top 9-seed.  If the Hawks surpass my projections above and win 7 of their last 10, I'd put them on the 6 or 7 line, and 8 more wins would get them a 5 or 6 seed.  But, with five remaning games on the road (currently 2-3), and three more against top 15 opponents (currently 0-5), I don't see a scenario where they end up above a 6-seed.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Kansas
2 seeds: Michigan State, VillanovaFlorida, San Diego State
3 seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Massachusetts, Saint Louis
4 seeds: Wisconsin, Duke, Pittsburgh, Michigan
5 seeds: Iowa State, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
6 seeds: Gonzaga, George Washington, New Mexico, Texas
7 seeds: Southern Miss, Memphis, Kentucky, Virginia
8 seeds: VCU, Connecticut, Louisville, Ohio State
9 seeds: Iowa, Missouri, Xavier, Toledo
10 seeds: Colorado, Arizona State, Minnesota, Kansas State
11 seeds: SMU, Providence, North Dakota State, Oregon
12 seeds: Saint Mary's, Florida State, Mississippi, Richmond, LSU, North Carolina
13 seeds: Belmont, Delaware, New Mexico State, Harvard
14 seeds: Stephen F Austin, Green Bay, Mercer, Canisius
15 seeds: Boston University, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, UC Santa Barbara
16 seeds: Northern Colorado, Stony Brook, Bryant, Davidson, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Saint Joseph's, Boise State, California, North Carolina State
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Stanford, Wake Forest, BYU


Thursday, January 30, 2014

January 30, 2014

It was Big Ten Shakeup night last night as Northwestern and Penn State upset ranked conference opponents on the road.  As great as these upsets feel for the Wildcats and Nittany Lions, they have a much greater effect on the Badgers and Buckeyes.  Wisconsin has now lost 4 of 5, Ohio State 5 of 6, and they face each other on Saturday so at least one will continue their slide.  And while Wisconsin can rely on a strong SOS and four quality wins, Ohio State has ZERO quality wins and a plummeting RPI.  If the Buckeye's can't right the ship soon, they'll have gone from #1 seed to NIT bound in less than a month.

In last night's "Big 3" games, Arizona held on to win a very close one over Stanford, Syracuse beat Wake Forest, and Kansas picked up their 7th quality win, against Iowa State.  After posting about the Kansas conundrum yesterday, my model moved them into the 4th overall seed today, thanks to dimished SOS numbers for Michigan State and Villanova.  That's not to say that there won't be a debate in the weeks to come, but for now I have to trust my model.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Kansas
2 seeds: Michigan State, VillanovaFlorida, San Diego State
3 seeds: Creighton, Massachusetts, Cincinnati, Saint Louis
4 seeds: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Duke, Iowa State
5 seeds: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Gonzaga, Michigan
6 seeds: George Washington, Louisville, UCLA, Texas
7 seeds: Southern Miss, New Mexico, Kentucky, Memphis
8 seeds: Virginia, VCU, Connecticut, Ohio State
9 seeds: Iowa, Missouri, Xavier, Colorado
10 seeds: Toledo, Arizona State, Providence, Minnesota
11 seeds: Saint Mary's, Oregon, Kansas State, SMU
12 seeds: Green Bay, North Dakota State, Florida State, Richmond, Ole Miss, Belmont
13 seeds: LSU, North Carolina, Delaware, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Mercer, Manhattan
15 seeds: Boston University, Hawaii, Georgia State, North Carolina Central
16 seeds: Northern Colorado, Stony Brook, Bryant, Chattanooga, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Saint Joseph's, Boise State, California, Stanford
Next Four Out: North Carolina State, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Indiana

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

January 29, 2014

LSU pulled off a big upset last night to move up in the bubble conversation (3rd out) and knock Kentucky down a few seed lines.

Michigan State pulled off a second Big Ten overtime victory last night, over Iowa.  The win moved Sparty into a 1-seed and dropped Herky to a 9-seed.

Creighton stayed hot with a close win over St. John's, thanks to a 39-point performance from Naismith favorite Doug McDermott.

Baylor lost again (their 5th of 6 games) to move completely off the bubble.  They'll need a huge turnaround to make the field, and five top-25 games left could help.

There are a few big games to watch tonight:

  • Top ranked Arizona heads to Stanford in a tough Pac12 road game against a bubble team looking to earn a quality, resume building win.
  • Second ranked Syracuse travels to Winston-Salem to take on a Wake Forest team that's also in the bubble battle, looking for their first quality win of the season.
  • Kansas hosts Iowa State in a battle of top-25's.  Kansas certainly doesn't need another quality win for their resume, but with three unbeaten teams ahead of them, they'll likely need to win out for a chance at a #1 seed - even with their unreal SOS numbers.
This brings up an interesting scenario that I want to briefly discuss.  What if Arizona, Syracuse, and Wichita State each remain undefeated on selection Sunday...they'd obviously all get #1 seeds, but who gets the fourth?  If Kansas wins out, they'd have by far the #1 RPI, but what about Michigan State, Villanova, Florida, San Diego State, even UMass? Each of these teams has just one or two losses, compared with Kansas' four.

Unfortunately for 2014 Kansas, 2013 Duke had a very similar resume, and was given a #2 seed (#6 overall).  That marked the first time in over ten years that the #1 RPI team didn't get a #1 seed in the tournament.  Last year's Blue Devils had the #1 RPI and SOS, and just two teams with fewer losses - Zaga and Memphis.  This year's Jayhawks are #1 in RPI and SOS, but currently have 23 teams with fewer losses, and that number could easily still be in the double digits by the end of the season, even if Kansas wins out.  What I'm saying is that Kansas needs to be perfect, and get a lot of help in order to lock up a #1.  I predict that this will be a very hotly debated topic in the 2-3 weeks approaching selection Sunday.


1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Michigan State
2 seeds: VillanovaKansas, Florida, Massachusetts
3 seeds: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Creighton, Cincinnati
4 seeds: Iowa State, Duke, Saint Louis, Pittsburgh
5 seeds: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Gonzaga 
6 seeds: Ohio State, Louisville, UCLA, George Washington
7 seeds: New Mexico, Southern Mississippi, Texas, Virginia
8 seeds: Kentucky, VCU, Connecticut, Memphis
9 seeds: Iowa, Xavier, Missouri, Green Bay
10 seeds: Colorado, Toledo, Minnesota, Providence
11 seeds: Oregon, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Kansas State
12 seeds: SMU, Arizona State, Florida State, Ole Miss, Richmond, California
13 seeds: North Dakota State, Belmont, Delaware, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Mercer, Manhattan
15 seeds: Hawaii, Georgia State, Boston University, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Bryant, Chattanooga, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Stanford, Wake Forest, LSU, Boise State
Next Four Out: North Carolina, Saint Joseph's, Indiana, North Carolina State

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

January 28, 2014

Unfortunately I don't have much time this morning to write much about last night's games, but since I didn't really watch any of them, I probably wouldn't be able to provide much insight.  The only noteworthy result was Oklahoma upsetting Oklahoma State in Norman, shaking things up a bit in the Big12.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova
2 seeds: Kansas, Michigan State, Florida, Massachusetts
3 seeds: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Creighton, Cincinnati
4 seeds: Iowa State, Duke, Saint Louis, Pittsburgh
5 seeds: Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan, Oklahoma State 
6 seeds: Gonzaza, Ohio State, Louisville, UCLA
7 seeds: George Washington, Toledo, Iowa, Texas
8 seeds: Southern Miss, New Mexico, VCU, Virginia
9 seeds: Connecticut, Memphis, Xavier, SMU
10 seeds: Green Bay, Colorado, Minnesota, Providence
11 seeds: Indiana State, Oregon, Missouri, Saint Mary's
12 seeds: Arizona State, Florida State, Kansas State, Ole Miss, California, Richmond
13 seeds: North Dakota State, Belmont, Delaware, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Mercer, Manhattan
15 seeds: Hawaii, Georgia State, Boston University, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Bryant, Chattanooga, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Stanford, Wake Forest, Baylor, Boise State
Next Four Out: North Carolina, Saint Joseph's, LSU, Indiana

Monday, January 27, 2014

January 27, 2014

The Gophers lost a tough one on the road yesterday in Lincoln.  Nebraska was virtually a one-man show with Pettaway accounting for 35 of the Huskers' 82 points.  Without Dre Hollins, the Gophers needed the rest of their backcourt to step up again as they had done against Wisconsin last week.  And, although Malik Smith did his part in a career high 29 point performance, Deandre Matthieu got into foul trouble early, and Austin Hollins made only two FG.

It will be interesting to see where Minnesota ends up in today's new polls.  Just like last week, they followed a big upset win with a somewhat disappointing loss, leaving room for doubt in voters' minds.  I'm not terribly worried about what the polls say at this point, but it's always nice to get a little recognition where it's due.  As it stands now, the Gophers are the highest RPI team (#27) without a single vote in either major poll.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova
2 seeds: Kansas, Michigan State, Florida, Wisconsin
3 seeds: Massachusetts, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, Creighton
4 seeds: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis
5 seeds: Kentucky, Duke, Michigan, Ohio State
6 seeds: Louisville, Gonzaza, Oklahoma, UCLA
7 seeds: Toledo, George Washington, Iowa, Texas
8 seeds: Southern Miss, New Mexico, VCU, Connecticut
9 seeds: Virginia, Memphis, Xavier, SMU
10 seeds: Colorado, Green Bay, Minnesota, Providence
11 seeds: Oregon, Indiana State, Missouri, Saint Mary's
12 seeds: Arizona State, Florida State, Kansas State, Ole Miss, California, Richmond
13 seeds: North Dakota State, Belmont, Delaware, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Mercer, Manhattan
15 seeds: Hawaii, Georgia State, Boston University, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Bryant, Chattanooga, Radford, Alabama State

First Four Out: Stanford, Wake Forest, Baylor, Boise State
Next Four Out: North Carolina, Saint Joseph's, LSU, Indiana

Sunday, January 26, 2014

January 26, 2014

Michigan emerged victorious in last night's battle of the Big Ten's unbeaten.  The Wolverines remain the lone undefeated team in Big Ten play, and continue to climb their way up the seed ladder with their 9th straight win.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin started their own winning streak by beating Purdue in West Lafayette, and avoiding a 4th consecutive loss.

Over the past 48 hours, the Gophers have moved up another three RPI spots to #20, thanks to continued success by their past opponents.  Minnesota's SOS is currently #4, behind only Arizona, Alabama, and Wisconsin.  That number will surely fall now that they're past the four-game gauntlet of ranked Big Ten opponents, and move on to a couple of the conference's bottom feeders in Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, and Indiana.  It will be crucial for the Gophers to win at least three if not all four of these upcoming games in order to maintain their RPI and improve their projected seed.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Villanova
2 seeds: Kansas, Michigan State, Florida, Wisconsin
3 seeds: Massachusetts, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, Creighton
4 seeds: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis
5 seeds: Duke, Michigan, Kentucky, Gonzaga
6 seeds: Ohio State, Louisville, Toledo, Oklahoma
7 seeds: George Washington, Iowa, UCLA, Texas
8 seeds: Southern Miss, New Mexico, VCU, Connecticut
9 seeds: Minnesota, Virginia, Memphis, Xavier
10 seeds: Colorado, Green Bay, SMU, Providence
11 seeds: Indiana State, Missouri, Oregon, Saint Mary's
12 seeds: Arizona State, Florida State, California, Kansas State, Ole Miss, Richmond
13 seeds: North Dakota State, Belmont, Delaware, New Mexico State
14 seeds: Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Manhattan, Mercer
15 seeds: Hawaii, Georgia State, Boston University, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Bryant, Chattanooga, Radford, Alabama State

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Stanford, Boise State, Baylor
Next Four Out: Saint Joseph's, Illinois, Arkansas, LSU

Friday, January 24, 2014

January 24, 2014

Without even taking the floor, the Golden Gophers moved up two spots in the RPI last night thanks to a 6-1 performance by their prior opponents.  Montana, Wofford, New Orleans, Texas A&M CC, Michigan, and Ohio State all won; Nebraska-Omaha lost.

Aside from that, there weren't any surprising or impactful results amongst the projected tournament field, and therefore only a few minor changes to the bracket:

  • The top 16 remained unchanged,
  • Zaga, Xavier, Virginia and Minnesota moved up one seed line,
  • Duke, Colorado, and UConn moved down a line each,
  • Memphis' home win over Houtson moved them up two lines,
  • Oregon's loss (#5 in a row) at home to Washington moved them down 3 seed lines from 8 to 11,
  • and, Arizona State moved into the field, bumping Stanford onto the outside of the bubble.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Michigan State
2 seeds: Kansas, Villanova, Massachusetts, Florida
3 seeds: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, Creighton
4 seeds: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis
5 seeds: Ohio State, Louisville, Kentucky, Gonzaga
6 seeds: Oklahoma, Duke, George Washington, Xavier
7 seeds: UCLA, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado
8 seeds: Southern Miss, Texas, Minnesota, Virginia
9 seeds: Connecticut, VCU, New Mexico, Memphis
10 seeds: Florida State, Green Bay, SMU, Kansas State
11 seeds: Oregon, California, Missouri, Providence
12 seeds: Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Arizona State, Baylor, Ole Miss, North Dakota State
13 seeds: New Mexico State, Toledo, Harvard, Stephen F Austin
14 seeds: Manhattan, Mercer, Belmont, UC Santa Barbara
15 seeds: Delaware, Georgia State, Boston University, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: North Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Saint Francis (NY), Elon, Radford, Alabama State

First Four Out: LSU, Richmond, Saint Joseph's, Stanford
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Dayton, Tennessee, Boise State

Thursday, January 23, 2014

January 23, 2014

What a huge win for the Golden Gophers!  It was virtually a wire-to-wire win, with no major stumbles, and a sustained dominance on both sides of the court, shooting 59% and holding the Badgers to 44%. The win bumps Minnesota to 26th in RPI, and will undoubtedly propel them into the top 25 in next week's polls.

In the other Big Ten game last night, the hot Hawkeyes lost to an even hotter Wolverines team, who along with the Spartans are really starting to pull away in the conference standings - both with a two game lead over the rest of the pack.

Ole Miss moved into the field with a win at Vandy.  Despite a shaky RPI (60) and SOS (89), the Rebels' road and neutral schedule (6-2) is the highlight of their resume.  That being said, they'll probably need a quality win or two to remain in the top-68 and they have three such contests left on the schedule - two against Kentucky and a home matchup with Florida.  Wins at Tennessee and against Missouri wouldn't hurt either.

Finally, Richmond upset the Minutemen in a very close game.  Not only did this drop UMass from a top seed, but also helped boost the Gophers to a #5 SOS.  With that victory, Richmond adds a quality win to their resume and moves onto the bubble (3rd out).  A strong finish to the season could move the Spiders into the field.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Michigan State
2 seeds: Kansas, Villanova, Massachusetts, Florida
3 seeds: Wisconsin, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, Creighton
4 seeds: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis
5 seeds: Louisville, Duke, Kentucky, Ohio State
6 seeds: George Washington, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Colorado
7 seeds: Xavier, Michigan, Iowa, UCLA
8 seeds: Texas, Oregon, Southern Miss, Connecticut
9 seeds: Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, VCU
10 seeds: Green Bay, Florida State, SMU, Kansas State
11 seeds: Memphis, California, Missouri, Providence
12 seeds: Indiana State, Baylor, Saint Mary's, Stanford, Ole Miss, North Dakota State
13 seeds: New Mexico State, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Harvard, 
14 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Manhattan, Mercer, Delaware
15 seeds: Belmont, Boston University, Georgia State, North Carolina Central
16 seeds: Northern Colorado, Stony Brook, Saint Francis (NY), Elon, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Arizona State, LSU, Richmond, Illinois
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, BYU

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

January 22, 2014

The Hoosiers had a good opportunity in Lansing last night, but couldn't finish against the Spartans.  Tied through 30 minutes of play, Indiana was ultimately out-hustled in the last 10 minutes as Michigan State kept its perfect conference record intact.

Texas hit a buzzer-beater three to win a very tight game over Kansas State in which neither team ever led by more than six, and the margin was only more than four for less than a minute.

And in the most surprising result of the night, Harvard was blown out by a really bad (sub 250 RPI) Florida Atlantic team, bringing into question their Ivy League dominance, and knocking them down several seed lines.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Massachusetts
2 seeds: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova
3 seeds: Florida, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, Creighton
4 seeds: Iowa State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis
5 seeds: Iowa, Kentucky, George Washington, Ohio State
6 seeds: Gonzaga, Louisville, Oklahoma, Colorado
7 seeds: Duke, Xavier, Texas, UCLA
8 seeds: Michigan, Oregon, Southern Miss, Virginia
9 seeds: Connecticut, California, New Mexico, Green Bay
10 seeds: Florida State, SMU, Kansas State, Memphis
11 seeds: VCU, Minnesota, Providence, Missouri
12 seeds: Baylor, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Dayton, Stanford, North Dakota State
13 seeds: UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Harvard, Stephen F. Austin
14 seeds: Manhattan, New Mexico State, Boston University, Delaware
15 seeds: Mercer, Belmont, Georgia State, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: Northern Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Saint Francis (NY), Elon, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Arizona State, LSU, Illinois, BYU

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

January 21, 2014

Holy Creighton!  I had the pleasure of watching most of this game, including Ethan Wragge's 7 for 7 start from beyond the arc.  Creighton's no slouch, as they led a projected #1 seed 47-19 at one point in the first half before their 3-point shooting "cooled" to a modest 60.0%.  The Blue Jays made as many 3-pointers (21) as 2-point FG (12) and Free Throws (9) combined!

The Buckeyes couldn't stop their bleeding as they lost a fourth straight game, to 8-8 Nebraska.  Thad better turn his squad around quick.  Upcoming losses to Illinois and Penn State in their next two games would leave them at 2-6 in Conference (15-6 overall), and squarely on the tournament bubble.  And to think, they were a 1-seed in my initial projections...

In other notable games, Kansas kept their hot streak alive by beating struggling Baylor, and Virginia knocked off a North Carolina team that is on pace to miss just their second Big Dance in a decade.  The Tar Heels are currently 12 spots below my At-Large cutoff, but can take advantage of a soft remaining schedule as 9 of their last 13 games are against teams outside the top 50 RPI.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Massachusetts
UMass is getting no love - their average seed on BracketMatrix is 3.59. For goodness sake, they're a one-loss team with the #11 SOS...what more do they need to do?  The A10 is very underrated this year, they'll have four solid contenders in the field.

2 seeds: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova
It's a tight race for top team in the Big Ten.  I give the edge to Sparty due to Bucky's recent losses, but Wisconsin is projected to finish the season with the #6 SOS compared to Michigan State's #33.  Watch for their lone matchup, in Madison on February 9th.  If they finish just one loss apart I think the edge goes to the Badgers. 

3 seeds: Florida, San Diego State, Creighton, Pittsburgh
Creighton has proved that they can hang regardless of which conference they're in.  The MVC to Big East move hasn't fazed them in the least.  Ironically, they may have a better chance of being champs this year in a tougher conference with the Shockers out of their way.

4 seeds: Iowa State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis
Iowa State is following in the Buckeyes' footsteps, losers of three in a row after starting 14-0.  Unfortunately, they don't have the luxury of Ohio State's soft schedule, the Cyclones' next four games are against tournament bound teams.

5 seeds: Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Gonzaga
Gonzaga could quite easily win out, but thanks to a soft WCC schedule, that may only move them up one seed line.  George Washington is in a similar situation, except they have a February 15th matchup with 1-seed UMass which could really boost their seeding come selection Sunday.

6 seeds: Oklahoma, Louisville, Colorado, Kentucky
Kentucky is my #1 most overrated team in the field.  Their BP average seed is a 4.45, but they have no signature wins, and only two opportunities against Florida to earn one.  They may maintain this seeding due to a relatively soft schedule, but I'd be shocked if they earn the 3-seed that some are predicting.

7 seeds: Duke, Harvard, Xavier, UCLA
This would be Duke's lowest seed since 1996, and only the 3rd time since then that they've been lower than a #2 seed.  Think about that...in 16 of the last 18 NCAA tournaments, Duke has been either a #1 or #2 seed...wow.

8 seeds: Kansas State, Oregon, Michigan, Connecticut
Michigan has been on quite a run, starting conference play 5-0 and quietly moving up the rankings.  Kansas State has also propelled themselves up the ladder, with impressive wins over OK and OK State, and plenty of upcoming opportunities for more signature wins.  I expect K-State to reach as high as a 5-seed by March.

9 seeds: California, Southern Miss, Virginia, Texas
Virginia has a crazy soft schedule to finish off the season, with only two top-50 games remaining, including a home game against the Orange on March 1st .  That game will no doubt have big seeding implications.

10 seeds: Green Bay, Missouri, VCU, SMU
The Horizon league provided the greatest Cinderella in recent history when Butler advanced to the Finals in back-to-back seasons in 2010-2011.  Can the Green Bay Phoenix be next?  Their best remaining opponent is #121 Cleveland State, and they could very easily finish the season 25-3 on a 22-game winning streak.  An SOS outside the top-100 may not garner a top-4 seed, but a 5- or 6- is feasible.

11 seeds: New Mexico, Memphis, Minnesota, Florida State
The Gophers and Seminoles both have remaining schedules that should help them climb the ladder.  Minnesota has five remainings matchups against ranked teams which are nicely dispersed amongst several winnable conference games.  Florida state has a bit easier schedule with three ranked opponents spread over their last 13 games.

12 seeds: Baylor, Providence, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Dayton, Stanford
Ah, the bubble.  Of the last four in, I think Dayton has the best outlook, based on two quality wins under their belt, and three more opportunities against St. Louis, GW, and UMass.  St. Mary's may have a tougher time staying in the field, with no quality wins thus far, and only one more opportunity in their final regular season game against Gonzaga.

13 seeds: North Dakota St, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Stephen F. Austin
14 seeds: Manhattan, Mercer, Boston University, New Mexico State
15 seeds: Delaware, Belmont, Georgia State, Northern Carolina Central
16 seeds: Stony Brook, Saint Francis (NY), Elon, Radford, Weber State, Southern

First Four Out: Arizona State, Boise State, Illinois, BYU

Sunday, January 19, 2014

January 19, 2014 Update #2

The Gophers forgot how to play defense, especially in the second half of a disappointing loss to Iowa.  It doesn't get any easier, with the Badgers coming to town on Wednesday.


1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Villanova, Wichita State
2 seeds: Massachusetts, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Kansas
3 seeds: Florida, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, Iowa State
4 seeds: Cincinnati, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Creighton
5 seeds: Saint Louis, Iowa, Oregon, Gonzaga
6 seeds: George Washington, Oklahoma, Louisville, Kentucky
7 seeds: Colorado, Harvard, Duke, Xavier
8 seeds: UCLA, Kansas State, Connecticut, Southern Miss
9 seeds: California, Michigan, Texas, Green Bay
10 seeds: Missouri, Virginia, SMU, VCU
11 seeds: Memphis, Minnesota, New Mexico, Florida State
12 seeds: Baylor, Providence, Indiana State, Dayton, Saint Mary's, Stanford
13 seeds: North Dakota St, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Stephen F. Austin
14 seeds: Manhattan, Mercer, New Mexico State, Boston University
15 seeds: Belmont, Delaware, Georgia State, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: Northern Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Saint Francis (NY), Elon, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Arizona State, Boise State, Illinois, Arkansas

January 19, 2014

With tip-off about 45 minutes away, I've got plenty of time to post an update.  Although only three of my seven bold upset predictions were true yesterday, there were still plenty of big movers and shakers.  Wisconsin lost to a surging Wolverine team that's still undefeated in Big Ten play.  Providence knocked off Creighton to move into the field, and Utah upset UCLA.

1 seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Villanova, Wichita State
2 seeds: Massachusetts, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Kansas
3 seeds: Florida, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, Iowa State
4 seeds: Cincinatti, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Creighton
5 seeds: Saint Louis, Oregon, George Washington, Gonzaga
6 seeds: Toledo, Oklahoma, Louisville, Colorado
7 seeds: Kentucky, Iowa, Harvard, Duke
8 seeds: UCLA, Xavier, Kansas State, Connecticut
9 seeds: Michigan, California, Minnesota, Green Bay
10 seeds: Texas, Missouri, Virginia, VCU
11 seeds: Memphis, SMU, Florida State, New Mexico
12 seeds: Baylor, Providence, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Dayton, Stanford
13 seeds: North Dakota St, UC Santa Barbara, New Mexico State, Southern Miss
14 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Manhattan, Mercer, Boston University
15 seeds: Belmont, Delaware, Georgia State, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: Northern Carolina Central, Stony Brook, Saint Francis (NY), Elon, Radford, Southern

First Four Out: Arizona State, Boise State, Illinois, Arkansas

Saturday, January 18, 2014

January 18, 2014 Midday update

Just a quick midday update while I'm watching Kansas beat up on OK State.  I'll do another either Sunday evening or during the day Monday.

1 seeds: Arizona, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Villanova
2 seeds: Massachusetts, Wichita State, Michigan State, Kansas
3 seeds: Florida, San Diego State, Iowa StatePittsburgh
4 seeds: Oklahoma State, Creighton, Ohio State, Cincinatti
5 seeds: Saint Louis, Connecticut, Oregon, Colorado
6 seeds: Toledo, Gonzaga, Iowa, Oklahoma
7 seeds: UCLA, George Washington, Kentucky, Harvard
8 seeds: Duke, Xavier, Louisville, Kansas State
9 seeds: Minnesota, Green Bay, California, Virginia
10 seeds: Missouri, Memphis, SMU, Baylor
11 seeds: Texas, Florida State, New Mexico, Michigan
12 seeds: VCU, Dayton, Illinois, Arizona State, Indiana, Providence
13 seeds: North Dakota St, New Mexico State, UC Santa Barbara, Belmont
14 seeds: Southern Miss, Stephen F. Austin, Manhattan, Mercer
15 seeds: Boston University, Delaware, Georgia State, North Carolina Central
16 seeds: Stony Brook, Northern Colorado, Saint Francis (NY), Elon, Radford, Alabama State

First Four Out: Saint Mary's College, Stanford, Wake Forest, Arkansas

Also, quick update on my upset alerts from yesterday:
-Pitt leads Cuse by 3 with 4:00 to play
-Texas leads Iowa State by 9 with 4:30 to play
-Kansas leads Oklahoma State by 6 with 11:30 to play
-Oklahoma beat Baylor by 2.
-Kentucky topped Tennessee by 8.

So, one upset in the books already and 3 more in the making. Michigan St/Illinois, Louisville/UConn, & Minnesota/Iowa still to come.

I'm now on Bracket Matrix

I just got my bracket added to the Bracket Matrix.  It will be awesome to be able to compare my predictions against 45 other professional (Joe Lunardi - ESPN, Jerry Palm - CBS, etc) and amateur bracketologists.  On the Matrix, my picks are under "Drew".

Currently, each of my predictions are within 3 seed lines of the Bracket Matrix consensus, with the exception of Kentucky (BM:4, Me:8) and George Washington (BM:10, Me:6).

Friday, January 17, 2014

January 17, 2014 Update

The Gophers took big advantage of Ohio State's downward spiral in a 10-point win over the #11 ranked Buckeyes last night.  That victory bumped Minnesota's RPI to #30, and will most likely garner some AP/Coaches votes next week, depending on what happens in Iowa City on Sunday.  The Gophers would really solidify a selection with a win in either that game, or against Wisconsin next Wednesday.  After that it will be crucial to protect their standing with wins over four lower ranked teams.

In other recent games, Texas Tech knocked off Baylor to drop them a few spots on the selection ladder, and UConn beat #17 Memphis on the road to significantly boost their resume.

There are several huge matchups this weekend to keep an eye on.  I predict that at least FIVE of these eight games will result in an upset.
-#22 Pitt heads to the Carrier Dome to try and hand #2 'Cuse their first loss of the season.
-#4 Michigan State plays a tough road game against a now unranked Illinois team coming off back-to-back dissapointing losses.
-#8 Iowa State will try to stop their bleeding against an underrated Texas team in Austin.
-#9 Oklahoma State travels to Lawrence to face the #15 Jayhawks in the game of the weekend.  Look for Kansas to dominate this one!
-The #25 Sooners play at #12 Baylor - both teams looking to rebound after disappointing losses.
-Tennessee will try to work their way onto the bubble on the road against an overrated #13 Kentucky squad that just lost to another bubble team in Arkansas.
-#18 Louisville goes on the road to face UConn (hardly an upset call here...the Cards' RPI is #43, Huskies are #16).
-And finally, the Gophers will try to launch themselves into the top-25 with a big win at #14 Iowa.

Alright, without further ado, here are the updated standings.  Stay tuned for the next update as I'm sure there will be some major shake-ups!

1 seeds: Arizona, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Villanova
2 seeds: Massachusetts, Wichita State, Michigan State, Florida
3 seeds: Kansas, San Diego State, Iowa StatePittsburgh
4 seeds: Oklahoma State, Creighton, Ohio State, Cincinatti
5 seeds: Saint Louis, Connecticut, Oregon, Gonzaga
6 seeds: Iowa, UCLA, Colorado, George Washington
7 seeds: Harvard, Baylor, Oklahoma, Xavier
8 seeds: Kentucky, Louisville, Duke, Florida State
9 seeds: Minnesota, California, Kansas State, Memphis
10 seeds: Missouri, Green Bay, Texas, Dayton
11 seeds: Virginia, New Mexico, Michigan, VCU
12 seeds: SMU, Illinois, Arkansas, Arizona State, Georgetown, North Dakota State
13 seeds: New Mexico StateUC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Toledo
14 seeds: Southern Miss, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Mercer
15 seeds: Boston University, Delaware, Georgia State, North Carolina Central
16 seeds: Northern Colorado, Stony Brook, Saint Francis (NY), Elon, Radford, Alabama State

First Four Out: Saint Mary's College, Indiana, Providence, Wake Forest

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

January 15, 2014 Update

A couple more big upsets last night shook things up a bit in the quest for a tournament selection.

Indiana's win at home over Wisconsin moved them onto the bubble as one of my first last four out.  With that big win, a .500 record in their remaining Big Ten games should move the Hoosiers into the field as the 8TH Big Ten team!  This game also bumped the Badgers off of their #1 overall spot, but their top-5 SOS keeps them on the 1-seed line, and my pick to win the Big Ten.

In the SEC, Arkansas beat Kentucky in Fayetteville to move them into my final At Large slot.  That being said, in a bit weaker conference, the Razorbacks will likely need 9 or 10 more conference wins to lock up a selection.  The result of the Wildcats' 4th loss is a drop from a 5- to 7-seed.  A few more losses like that could send Calipari to his second straight NIT.

Lastly, before we get to the updated predictions, the Cyclones' second consecutive loss drops them down another spot to a 3-seed.  Mayor Freddie will need to figure things out in a hurry, as their schedule doesn't ease up for a few more weeks.  They're just three games into an eight game stretch against tournament teams which includes a road rematch against the Jayhawks on the 29th, and a home rematch against the Sooners on February 1st.

1 seeds: Arizona, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Massachusetts
2 seeds: Villanova, Wichita State, Michigan State, Florida
3 seeds: Kansas, Iowa State, San Diego State, Pittsburgh
4 seeds: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Creighton, Baylor
5 seeds: Colorado, Cincinnati, Iowa, Saint Louis
6 seeds: Oregon, Gonzaga, George Washington, Memphis
7 seeds: Connecticut, Missouri, New Mexico, Harvard
8 seeds: Kentucky, Oklahoma, UCLA, Louisville
9 seeds: Duke, Kansas State, Xavier, Illinois
10 seeds: Florida State, California, Southern Miss, Green Bay
11 seeds: Virginia, Minnesota, VCU, Texas
12 seeds: Michigan, Dayton, Georgetown, SMU, Arizona State, Arkansas
13 seeds: New Mexico StateOhio, North Dakota State, Belmont
14 seeds: UC Santa Barbara, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Mercer
15 seeds: Boston University, Northern Colorado, Louisiana-Lafayette, Delaware
16 seeds: North Carolina Central, Radford, Saint Francis (NY), Stony Brook, Elon, Southern

First Four Out: Saint Mary's College, Indiana, Missouri State, Stanford

Monday, January 13, 2014

January 13, 2014 Update

My Gophers lost another very close game after taking Michigan State to OT.  That continues Minnesota's streak of consecutive Big Ten games within 3 points (in regulation), now at four to start conference play.  It doesn't get much easier now, as the Gophers have Ohio State, @Iowa, and Wisconsin next.  It'll take at least one win out of those three games to remain in the runnings for Tournament selection.  Iowa shook things up with a convincing win over Ohio State over the weekend, bumping the Hawkeyes up to a 5-seed and the Buckeyes down to a 4-seed in the newest predictions.

1 seeds: Wisconsin, Arizona, Syracuse, Villanova
2 seeds: Iowa State, Massachusetts, Wichita State, Michigan State
3 seeds: Florida, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh
4 seeds: Kansas, Ohio State, Creighton, Baylor
5 seeds: Colorado, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Iowa
6 seeds: Oklahoma, Saint Louis, Oregon, Missouri
7 seeds: Memphis, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Harvard
8 seeds: New Mexico, UCLA, George Washington, Louisville
9 seeds: Virginia, VCU, Xavier, Illinois
10 seeds: Florida State, Duke, Green Bay, California
11 seeds: Kansas State, Minnesota, Dayton, Georgetown
12 seeds: Michigan, Texas, SMU, Arizona State, Saint Mary's College, New Mexico State
13 seeds: Ohio, North Dakota State, Belmont, UC Santa Barbara
14 seeds: Southern Mississippi, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Mercer
15 seeds: Drexel, Boston University, Northern Colorado, Louisiana-Lafayette
16 seeds: North Carolina Central, Saint Francis (NY), Radford, Stony Brook, Elon, Alabama State

Friday, January 10, 2014

January 10, 2014

With four crazy hard games against the top four Big10 teams coming up (Michigan St, Ohio St, Iowa, Wisconsin), today might be the highest projection for the Gophers for the rest of the season, so I wanted to document.  Maybe, just maybe Minny can pick up a win or two in this four-game stretch and maintain their position.

1 seeds: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Syracuse, Arizona
2 seeds: Villanova, Massachusetts, Ohio State, Michigan State
3 seeds: Wichita State, Colorado, San Diego State, Oklahoma State
4 seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas, Baylor
5 seeds: Florida, Creighton, Cincinnati, Illinois
6 seeds: Xavier, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Oklahoma
7 seeds: Duke, Memphis, Iowa, New Mexico
8 seeds: Minnesota, Saint Louis, Southern Mississippi, Missouri
9 seeds: Harvard, Connecticut, Kansas State, Louisville
10 seeds: UCLA, Dayton, Virginia, George Washington
11 seeds: VCU, Florida State, Arizona State, California
12 seeds: SMU, Michigan, Georgetown, Texas, Green Bay, North Carolina State
13 seeds: Ohio, New Mexico State, UC Santa Barbara, North Dakota State
14 seeds: Belmont, Manhattan, Stephen F. Austin, Mercer
15 seeds: North Carolina Central, Drexel, Boston University, Northern Colorado
16 seeds: Louisiana-Lafayette, Saint Francis (NY), Radford, Stony Brook, Elon, Jackson State

Sunday, January 5, 2014

January 5, 2014

After one week of conference play, here are my updated Bracket seeding projections:

1 seeds: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Syracuse, Ohio State
2 seeds: Arizona, Villanova, Oregon, Massachusetts
3 seeds: Michigan State, Wichita State, Colorado, Kansas
4 seeds: Baylor, Oklahoma State, Illinois, Pittsburgh
5 seeds: Missouri, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Florida
6 seeds: Creighton, San Diego State, Iowa, Cincinnati
7 seeds: Xavier, Louisville, UCLA, George Washington
8 seeds: Kentucky, Southern Mississippi, Duke, Saint Louis
9 seeds: North Carolina, Dayton, Minnesota, Georgetown
10 seeds: Memphis, Kansas State, New Mexico, Texas
11 seeds: Connecticut, SMU, VCU, Saint Mary's
12 seeds: Boise State, Virginia, LSU, California, North Dakota State, Green Bay
13 seeds: UC Santa Barbara, New Mexico State, Drexel, Belmont
14 seeds: Harvard, Toledo, Manhattan, Stephen F Austin
15 seeds: Mercer, Louisiana-Lafayette, Boston University, NC Central
16 seeds: Northern Colorado, Bryant, Albany, Elon, Jackson State, UNC Asheville